Monday, November 07, 2016

Electoral College prediction: Clinton 303, Trump 233

As conservative as I can get it to be.

Click the map to create your own at

Note again that in this forecast, as with last Wednesday's, the Buckeyes belong to Trump.  Also North Carolina and New Hampshire.  Further, I don't think the Beehive State winds up going for Evan McMullin.  Florida and Nevada don't seem all that battleground-ey to me any longer, but if Trump won them and everything else I've given him here, the Electoral College would be tied, 268 apiece, and the House of Representatives could very well elect McMullin president on a Grand Bargain, and the Senate would/could pick Tim Kaine as VP.  This very narrow (and slightly bizarre) path to a still-not-Trump presidency was one of the things motivating Nate Silver and Huffington Post DC bureau chief Ryan Grim having a geek fight on Twitter over the weekend.  More on that from Vox.

So let's see what I get right or wrong tomorrow evening.

Update: My call in NH has the greatest chance of being off, as the very latest of numbers suggest it might be safe for Clinton.  If that's the case, then Gadfly and I are only one electoral vote (in Nebraska or Maine) apart, at 307-229.

Larry Sabato has a 322-216 victory for Clinton and a 50-50 Senate.

My states to watch tomorrow evening are New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida.  If they all go blue, you can start celebrating early.  Like Chuck, I'd like to see some gains in the Texas House, a clean sweep at the Harris County courthouse, and Pete Gallego taking his Congressional seat back (with some indication that the Latin@ vote that carries him this year can help hold it in two years.  In other words a fat margin, something like 55-45 or greater).

I'll also look for that 5% nationally and statewide for Jill Stein and the Green Party, but my hopes have been somewhat dimmed, with all of the vigorous and hostile pushback I've seen from Democrats all year but particularly in these last few weeks.  I am certain I will have more to say about that later in the week, but I'll wait for the numbers to come in.

1 comment:

Gadfly said...

Very close to my 308-230 on Friday: