Saturday, September 28, 2013

Saturday morning spitballing

-- Tea Party queen Debra Medina makes a transparent play for some of Greg Abbott's check-writers.

Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Debra Medina could end up running again for the state's highest office, this time as an independent, she said Friday afternoon.

Medina, who has been exploring a race for comptroller for several months, told the Tribune earlier this month that she is having trouble raising the amount of money she thinks is necessary to mount a competitive campaign for that office. She cited a particular lack of interest from wealthy campaign donors who are typically pivotal in financing successful statewide races in Texas.

At the same time, in a development first reported by the Quorum Report, she said she has been hearing from potential donors interested in seeing her run as an independent for governor. Collectively, she has received pledges totaling millions of dollars, she said, and that has her wondering whether she ought to switch from one race to the other.

I would be stunned if Medina ran for governor.  As Texpate suggests, that would create so much momentum for Wendy Davis that it cannot be measured with modern technology.  What Medina really wants is for General Scooter's benefactors to open up their wallets and keep her out of the governor's contest.  And Greg Abbott will encourage them to do so, because he doesn't owe Harvey Hilderbran or Glenn Hegar a thing.

As for the still-just-prospective Democratic candidate's part, Davis needs some big money herself, she needs Abbott to screw up publicly a few more times, and she needs some glorious serendipity in order to be able to change her address to 1010 Colorado Street, Austin.  Medina in the race as an indy falls into the third category.

There's a case to be made for Mike Collier being the Democrat with the best shot at statewide victory if Medina is the Republicans' nominee for comptroller.  Her pet issue is overhauling the state's eminent domain laws; she spoke about it at the Independent Texans convention last weekend in Bastrop (where she likely was begged to run for governor).  That could be a hot topic again with rural, suburban, and urban Texas voters of all political stripes, as it was in 2006 with regard to the Trans Texas Corridor, but it's not a stance that's attracting wealthy oil company executives -- and their PACs -- who make large contributions to GOP political campaigns.  So there's that.

-- The Tea Pee also wants Louie Gohmert to primary John Cornyn.  Some people don't want to say so directly, so they're dropping The Dew's name.  Those are people who want one of the other three RWNJs to be lite guv.

Dewhurst can finish first in the primary he''s already in, but he might be unable to win the runoff with one of Staples, Patterson and (most likely) Patrick as his competition.

The conventional view of the race is that despite Dewhurst’s advantages, he is highly vulnerable. Down-ballot races are about getting your message out, and with his ability to self-fund, Dewhurst will have the biggest megaphone. But a four-way primary could easily result in a runoff, in which he would struggle, just as he did in the delayed primary against Cruz. His performance in that race also indicates that his constituency may not have the influence it once did.

Dewhurst is still haunted by his loss to Cruz. ... 

Go click and read that article.  And then you'll see things come full circle; Gohmert is the guy we all want to primary Cornyn.  Because then a Democrat might actually decide to run (and consequently win).

For the Republicans reading this and not getting it: splitting your party between crazies and "moderates" is how you will lose control of this state.  It's happened all across the country, and it's coming to Texas.  Sooner than later.

But please don't take my advice and vote for the 'sensible' person in your primary.  Please.

-- Ben Hall cranked up the slime to 10 yesterday.  Sue Davis threw a creampie back at him.  Both parties missed their target.  Update: Dr. Murray may think it's funny, but I sure don't.

Another thirty days of this... maybe sixty.

Update II:  I should have added San Antonio city council member and virulent homophobe Elisa Chan to the list of batshit nuts challenging plenty-conservative-enough Republicans from their right.

No offense meant toward bat guano.


Gadfly said...

I would soooo love to see Gohmert Pyle challenge Cornyn. I think Cornyn would win; at the least, he'd be more likely than Dudley Dewless is to remain Lite Guv. But, Cornyn probably would have to move even further into Cruz territory to do so.

That said, what Dem is a likely entrant into this race, even if Gohmert Pyle announces?


I think that's totally right on Medina, since eminent domain is now all about Keystone. We need a good, true-liberal Dem in the AG's race for stuff like this.

PDiddie said...

I still don't see anybody but Rodney Ellis with the cleanest shot. (You talked me off Royce West.)

Gadfly said...

I'd like to see Royce run, but I doubt it. Besides wondering if he has John Wiley Price connections in the background, I think he still wants to hen-sit over UNT-Dallas, since that was so much his baby. A full-time federal job would make that even harder than a full-time state job.