Trump's last stand in Vegas

You know he'll be betting it all.

The final presidential debate of the 2016 campaign here Wednesday night is shaping up to be the last substantial opportunity for Donald Trump to fundamentally alter a race that is breaking demonstrably in favor of Hillary Clinton.

A ream of battleground state polls released three weeks from Election Day is showing Clinton as a sturdy front-runner with consistent leads and an array of pathways to 270 electoral votes. Trump, on the other hand, is sounding increasingly morose, claiming he no longer trusts the polling he heralded for so many months and blaming a likely loss on a "rigged system."

Yeah yeah, boo fucking hoo.

The final presidential debate is (tonight) at 9 p.m. It's the last chance either candidate will have to make their closing argument before tens of millions of voters.

It follows yet another unprecedented week in the campaign, in which Donald Trump has repeatedly questioned the legitimacy of the election, predicting that it will be stolen from him through media bias and massive voter fraud.

Hillary Clinton has a lead in the polls nationally and her battleground map of opportunities appears to be growing. The Clinton campaign is even talking about making an aggressive play for Arizona.

Here are 4 things to watch for as the two candidates meet in Las Vegas.

1.  Will Trump go high or low (take a wild guess);
2.  Will Trump commit to accepting the results of the election (and stop fomenting revolution)?

3.  How does Clinton answer the questions revealed in the Wiklieaked emails (about her campaign's obnoxious pandering to Lloyd Blankfein to petty dismissal of the concerns of 'radical environmentalists'), and ...

4.  Will Clinton make a positive case for herself (one that is believable, not full of the usual political tropes and promises she has no intention of keeping)?

Her top strategist, Joel Benenson, wrote to other campaign strategists, "Do we have any sense from her what she believes or wants her core message to be?"

Watch the Twitter feed to the top right if you can't stand to watch it live.  Ted Rall, as he has from the beginning to the end of this cycle, says it best.

Whether you support or oppose her, there’s no question that the one thing she doesn’t represent is love. The bombs that she voted to drop on the people of Iraq are not full of love. When she made jokes about watching the deposed dictator of Libya being (sodomized with a) bayonet, she didn’t seem to be oozing with love. So what the heck are they talking about?

Politico has five more (some are the same as those above) things to watch for, if you happen to have strengthened your immune system enough to be watching.  I say let's get this over with and get on to the voting.   How about you?

Can Clinton win Texas? And can her surrogates squash the Greens in the process?

I've been saying 'no' even as she steadily closes the gap between her and Trump, and today I'd give the odds at something just under 50%.  Steve Brown, Democratic candidate for Texas Railroad Commission and also HD27 in prior cycles, has a blog-worthy report leading the cheers for his team (the following is from his latest email blast):

Recent polls indicate that the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is tightening in Texas.  A Survey USA poll last week has Sec. Clinton within the margin of error...behind by just 4%! . For perspective, Mitt Romney won Texas by 16%.

Clinton is performing strongest in Central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
In the country's 3rd most populous county, Harris, a September 22nd UH poll had Clinton 10 pts ahead of Trump...and that was before audio was released where Trump brags about sexual assault.  Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com website names Fort Bend County as a Clinton "surge county" poised to flip this cycle. Not only is Fort Bend the country's most diverse county with the state's largest population of Asian American voters, but it also represents an area where many key swing white educated women reside.

The polling suggests that Trump could be indirectly lifting the fortunes of down ballot Democrats. For instance, District Attorney and Sheriff candidates, Kim Ogg and Ed Gonzalez, as well as a legion of qualified Democratic judicial candidates in Harris/Fort Bend might benefit "bigly" from Trump.

Finally, the state's voter universe has changed significantly this cycle in part due to Trump's xenophobic rhetoric.  A record breaking 15 million Texans are registered to vote this cycle.  Further, this will be the first election since 2012 where the effects of Voter ID won't result in over 600,000 Texans being disenfranchised. 

All of this has Democrats really frothing to turn Texas blue, and it would be an awfully big deal if they can pull it off.  I'm still inclined to believe that Clinton comes up short, but Democrats down the ballot ought to be able to ride her wave throughout the state's urban and suburban counties.  That will certainly be something for the Donks to celebrate.

If I were still a Democrat, I'd be enthused.  But I no longer am, and it's not just because I think Hillary Clinton would be comfortable in a saner GOP, or even because most of her supporters are Helen Keller when it comes to her many flaws.  It's because of their animosity and condescension to those on her left, the Greens and Jill Stein.  This week there's been a full-court press waged against progressives from everybody from John Oliver to Glen Maxey.

Stein has responded to Oliver (so that I don't have to).

We were pleasantly surprised when John Oliver’s research team reached out to us regarding several statements that have been frequently taken out of context to ask if we felt they were missing any context, which we promptly provided. It was beyond disappointing to see that our responses were completely ignored. The same tired, misleading attack lines were trotted out, and Oliver chose to misrepresent our campaign on the lone substantive issue that he addressed: our plan to cancel student debt.

When Oliver’s fact-checkers asked if canceling student debt via quantitative easing was the campaign’s current position, we replied that we are considering a range of options in consultation with our economic advisors. Regardless, Oliver singled out canceling student debt via the Federal Reserve, implying both that this was our only option and that it would be technically impossible. In reality, experts say that it is technically possible, even if politically difficult, for the Fed to play a role in student debt forgiveness. And Oliver simply ignored the fact that we had other proposals to cancel student debt on the table. Coming from someone who made a stunt of buying and canceling medical debt on his show, and who claims to want alternatives to the failed two-party system, this disingenuous attack on the idea of cancelling student debt is both puzzling and hypocritical.

And so has David Collins, the Green who got over 80,000 votes and 16.6% in his run for Harris County Judge in 2014 (and does so in a much kinder and gentler way than I ever could).  But then Lisa Gray at the Chronic reposted UT's Per Erlaub and his little bomblet on the Greens even as Stein barnstormed through Texas this past weekend.

This stuff has the feel of a coordinated attack in the David Brock style, but only if you can dismiss the Clinton campaign's numerous exercises in dumbass douchebaggery, like having a conversation with Lloyd Blankfein in a room full of bankers about bombing Iran, or playing the race card against white progressives in the Sanders camp, both revealed in their own internal communications.  (I'm sorry I ever blogged anything praiseworthy about Tom Perez.)

"But the Russians ... !"

Accusations of being weirdos aside -- this is the Chris Hooks/Jackass argument -- the Greens have always punched above their class in terms of instilling fear in Democrats.  Now that the Mules don't (shouldn't) have anything to be scared of, the premise has shifted to "Blue Texas!" "A vote for Stein means Clinton might not carry the state!"

I weary of shooting down all these bullshit rationales.  This one will die writhing on the ground whether Hillary flips our beloved Texas or not, and whether Stein gets 1%, 2%, or the 5% goal the Green Party seeks nationwide for continuing ballot access and federal matching funds.  It is DOA on this basis alone: Clinton will either win the Lone Star or not -- and it doesn't seem to have the potential of Arizona flipping -- exclusively on the heat generated by Donald Trump's self-immolation, and not because of any teevee ad buys or blockwalking or phonebanking or anything else her campaign does or does not do.

The end (in sight).

The Weekly Wrangle

With this week's blog post roundup, the Texas Progressive Alliance is really looking forward to the third presidential debate this Wednesday.  Really.  Looking.  Forward.

Off the Kuff published two interviews designed to help Houston voters make up their minds on the recapture referendum.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos is delighted to learn that Trump's scandals could impact down ballot candidates, even in Texas. Texas GOP is Frightened By Trump's Scandals. Dems could sweep Harris County.

Socratic Gadfly looks at Ruth Bader Ginsberg's recent disrespect for the spirit of the First Amendment, including noting how this refutes "oh the SCOTUS" claims of two-party-only voters.

A reporter arrested at the North Dakota pipeline protest has been charged with three felony violations carrying a 45-year maximum sentence.  Txsharon at Bluedaze passes along a letter of support for Deia Schlosberg, and a reminder that we don't arrest or charge journalists in the United States who are just doing their jobs because, you know, First Amendment.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is not surprised that Texas lawmakers want to take more anonymous goodies from donors. They love the rich.

Egberto Willies comments on the ProPublica story where a five-year-old girl told the author's son on the playground: "only white people".

Texas Leftist is again conducting candidate interviews via questionnaire for downballot candidates in the Houston region.

Some pictures and video of Jill Stein's Texas tour this past weekend were posted by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

Neil at All People Have Value took his public art sign-carrying effort to Atlanta, Georgia. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

The editor of the Lewisville Texan Journal says that when your path is uncertain, hit the road.

==================

More blog posts from across our beloved Texas!

The Texas Moratorium Network advances the 'March to Abolish the Death Penalty', at the Capitol in Austin, on October 29th.

The latest Texas Watch podcast sees the insurance lobby setting the table for the next legislative session.

Jef Rouner exercises his binary logic to remind Democrats that their votes aren't wasted by repeating the logical fallacy that not voting for Democrats is a waste.

At the Texas Observer, Joe Lansdale explains why his East Texas neighbors are voting for Trump, and John Wright asks on behalf of Texas greens: "Won't Someone Think of the (Fracked) Children?"

Michael Barajas laments another ridiculous aspect of our state's antiquated beer laws.

Grits for Breakfast takes note of the vast resources being consumed by the state in criminalizing drug addiction.

Lisa Gray collects local stories of sexual assault in the wake of "grab her by the p*ssy" and "it was just locker room talk".

Shari Biediger eulogizes longtime San Antonio Democratic activist Choco Meza.

Lone Star Ma encourages Rep. Blake Farenthold's constituents to give him some feedback on his defense of rape culture.

Houston Strategies has a story about the recent 'saving' of the Astrodome in an aggreposting.

And the Digital Heretic points out why distrust of the corporate media is at an all-time high. 

Vote "fraud" investigation ongoing in Tarrant County

Captain Ahab Greg Abbott and his third mate Flask Ken "I Know Fraud" Paxton are hot on the scent of the elusive Moby Dick.

Less than a month before the Nov. 8 election, allegations of voter fraud in Tarrant County are under investigation by the state, prompting concern that the timing may intimidate some voters — and possibly lay groundwork for the Legislature to enact more restrictions on voting next year.

The complaints focus on mail-in ballots, which allow people to vote from their homes without any ID or verification of identity.

Supporters have long said mail-in balloting is crucial for overseas residents, the military and senior citizens. Critics maintain that such voting is ripe for abuse and raises concerns about “vote harvesting,” in which people could fill out and return other people’s ballots.

Some say the investigation is politically motivated; others say it’s addressing a practice that has been a problem for years.

"The Republicans have been looking for a blockbuster case to demonstrate that voter fraud isn’t just a series of small mistakes," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. "If some of these allegations turn out to be true, they may finally have their white whale."

Herman Melville thanks you, Professor Rottinghaus.

“Whether there is lawbreaking or not, the issue of voting is polarized and revelations this close to an election are bound to have an effect on Democratic Party and affiliated groups’ efforts to get out the vote. Voters may be hesitant to sign up for or vote through a mail-in ballot, let alone give it to someone else. This may reduce turnout in some heavily Democratic areas that utilize this process.”

Local officials say workers with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s office have been in the reliably red Tarrant County gathering paperwork and interviewing potential witnesses.

The attorney general’s office declined to “confirm or deny investigations” or comment on the situation. When asked for the complaints that started the local investigation, attorney general’s workers declined to release them, expressing concern that doing so might hamper a criminal investigation.

There's a lot more, and also at the Dallas News if you like.  Abbott is really turned on about getting somebody under his wheels.

Largest Voter Fraud Investigation in Texas History Underway in Tarrant County. We will crush illegal voting. #tcot https://t.co/EoQSsWEQnn

— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) October 7, 2016

I'm just going to sit back and wait, as his witchhunts have typically come up dry.

If they have something, they'll show something.  If they don't have anything they'll still show something, even if it's the same old nothing.  I just can't get worked up this late in the cycle about the little boy in the wheelchair who constantly cries wolf.

Jill Stein's Texas tour, in pics and video

El Paso, last Friday:

Lots and lots and LOTS of coverage from El Paso media, en Espanol y Ingles.  And these following are from Houston's rally Saturday afternoon.

Courting voters in Houston! @GreenPartyUS @DrJillStein takes stage #KHOU11 #HouNews pic.twitter.com/7tanAeTshx

— Grace White (@GraceWhiteKHOU) October 15, 2016

More coming from San Antonio (today) and Austin (tomorrow).

Sunday Unshackled Funnies

Hickman, Gonzalez, Soros, Ogg, and the judge who switched parties

-- A spirited debate last night between the two Harris County Sheriff candidates, Tommy Thomas Ron Hickman and Adrian Garcia Ed Gonzalez.

The biggest surprise was that both guys oppose campus carry.  I still expect Gonzalez to win this election because of all the cycle's factors working against Hickman -- high Latin@ registration, Trump's radioactivity down the ballot, the appointed incumbent's poor handling of the county jail's varying and continuing crises, etc. -- but like Hillary Clinton, Gonzalez is making it closer than it should be.  If you buy the last polling result.

-- He supported Morris Overstreet in the Democratic primary for Harris County District Attorney, and I thought that would be good enough for a win, but I was wrong.  And now that guy (his first name is "Billionaire", doncha know) pushes all in for Kim Ogg.

The latest ($500,000) Soros contribution arrives just days after the Ogg campaign filed a quarterly finance report showing she received nearly $135,000 in campaign contributions from a PAC supported by Steve Mostyn, another major Democratic financier.

Incumbent Republican District Attorney Devon Anderson's political consultant, Allan Blakemore, trumpeted the Soros ad buy, accusing Ogg of aligning forces seeking to buy the district attorney's office.

"She has abandoned the values and standards of our community to become a puppet for those whose clear agenda is to corrupt the rule of law in Harris County," Blakemore said.

Blakemore forgot to use the word 'morals', or maybe he was just smart enough not to go there with an incumbent DA whose prosecutors jail mentally ill rape victims.  It's almost as predictable as Dan Patrick bleating about bathrooms while trumpeting you-know-who.

Wayne Dolcefino, a spokesman for the Ogg campaign, welcomed the contribution, adding that the race has received national attention following the jailing of a rape victim during Anderson's tenure.

"We welcome contributions from anyone in the country who wants to make people safer and actually remember what justice is," Dolcefino said. "This is a local election, but Devon's conduct has made this a national race."

This race shouldn't be close either, but Harris County Republicans may be able to muster for Anderson and hold on.  That would be a real shame for the second time.

-- There's a new Democrat in town, recently surfacing on one of the Houston region's two state Court of Appeals, and his name isn't Reggie Hammond or even Jim Sharp.

Justice Terry Jennings of the Texas First Court of Appeals, who has generated national news coverage by switching political parties, said the reaction has been "remarkably positive."

"I've even gotten Facebook messages from New Zealand," the Houston-based justice said Thursday by phone.

Jennings announced Saturday at the Harris County Democratic Party's Johnson, Rayburn & Richards Dinner that, after much reflection, he had decided to leave the Republican Party.

How much reflection and for how long, I wonder.

"...When I first ran for the Court of Appeals in 2000, moderates were welcome in the GOP," he said in his speech. "I was proud to run as a Republican -- the party of my father. Sadly, today in the Republican party, "moderate" is a dirty word. And today's Republican party has chosen a dark path I cannot take."

Stay woke, Justice Jennings.  Unfortunately he's on the ballot in two years, and all signs point to that being another wipeout for Democrats everywhere.

Jennings [...] said he probably will wait until spring to decide whether to run again in 2018.

I'll guess 'retirement from the bench and a lucrative partnership with a local powerhouse firm'.  Still wonder why people say Republicans and Democrats are all the same?  You shouldn't.

Texas doubles down on going after voters without ID

Charles Kufffner (and many others, like the Center, TX, Light and Champion)) have been on this; here's a few of the latest developments and some legal interpretation from Joseph Kulhavy of the Texas Election Law blog.

On September 22, 2016, the Texas House of Representatives Elections Committee conducted a routine interim hearing on various technical matters relating to election administration. For three and a half hours the committee members and witnesses discussed proposed legislative tweaks to the petition signature process, to municipal elections, to obligation bonds and taxes, and so on. You can watch the whole hearing if that’s your thing, but for my money the really interesting stuff doesn’t come up until the very end ...

As the hearing wrapped up, State Representative Celia Israel asked an official from the Texas Secretary of State’s office about a court order that had been issued two days prior to the committee hearing. In particular, Representative Israel was curious to find out what the State was doing to educate voters about I.D. requirements for the November 8, 2016, election.

In response to the questions, Director of Elections Keith Ingram explained that the State had incorporated the text of the court’s most recent directive into the website and upcoming print and media advertising; he specified that voters who “do not possess [the statutorily mandated forms of photo I.D.] and cannot reasonably obtain it,” could cast a regular ballot by completing a “Declaration of Reasonable Impediment,” if they also supplied alternate forms of documentary evidence of their identity.

Representative Mike Schofield then took the discussion in a new direction (starting at the 3 hour, 36 minute mark), after asking if the State could track information about whether the Declarations were submitted by people who actually have I.D.:

What I don’t want to see is a gross number, and everybody acts as if those people don’t have I.D…. If you pretend you don’t have it, and use one of these declarations, that’s illegal, isn’t it?

In response to the question, Mr. Ingram clarified that voters entitled to use the Declaration would be those who had either never been issued one of the six forms of photo I.D. listed under the law, or those whose previously issued I.D.s had been lost or destroyed, and who had a reasonable impediment to replacing the missing I.D.

Representative Israel raised a hypothetical situation (described starting at 3 hours 45 minutes) in which a voter’s “reasonable impediment” is that the voter is voting at a polling place on one end of town, but left her photo I.D. at home, at the other end of town.

In that circumstance, Mr. Ingram explained that assuming that the voter filled out the “Declaration” and wrote down that the reasonable impediment was “left my I.D. at home,” the election worker would have to take the declaration at face value and allow the voter to cast a ballot.

Representative Schofield seemed incredulous, asking, “Is that … is that correct? … You’re going to let them vote with a ‘Reasonable Impediment?'”

The Director of Elections responded:

The poll worker cannot challenge the ‘Reasonable Impediment’ asserted by the voter. …. But if that’s the reasonable impediment, I think the voter is at risk, because they’re not following the law. But that’s not for the poll worker to decide. [Emphasis added by Kulhavey.]

Committee vice-chair Craig Goldman then asked, “But, how does that get challenged, and then how is their vote null and void?”

The Director of Elections explained:

The vote will never be null and void. It’ll get challenged in an election contest, if it’s a close election. And obviously these things [the Declarations of Reasonable Impediment] will be available for folks to give to their district attorneys to follow up on. [Emphasis added by Kulhavy.]

Representative Schofield pressed the issue as the hearing entered its final minutes (at the 3 hour 46 minute mark):

I realize we’re going to have a lot of illegal votes and a lot of fraudulent votes. That’s why we have voter I.D. My concern is that there are going to be a lot of people trying to thwart the [voter I.D.] law who have valid drivers’ licenses; who have passports; and are going to assert these declarations. Their votes may count in this election, but I want to make sure that when we go back to court, we’re not saying ‘oh, there’s this huge number of people that filed these declarations.’ I want to drill down and find out which one of ’em [declarations] were bogus. [Emphasis added by Kulhavy.]

The Director of Elections responded, “And I’ll think you’ll be able to tell easily.” He then went on describe how one of the Declarations of Reasonable Impediment that had already been used in an off-season tax ratification election indicated that one voter had written that the “reasonable impediment” was “fascist law.”

The committee chair said: “Fascist law? They wrote that?”

Let's pause here for  moment to summarize.  The state of Texas, here represented by Mike Schofield and Craig Goldman, with an assist from Keith Ingram, is setting the stage for the prosecution of Texas voters on the basis of what is or isn't -- attempting to define the term legally, in the most onerous way -- 'reasonable impediment' for a voter to producing their photo ID.  Continuing ...

What’s troubling about the exchange (aside from Representative Schofield’s counterfactual and inflammatory assertion that there’s going to be a lot of “fraudulent votes” in this election), and what should be especially troubling to the plaintiffs in the voter I.D. lawsuit, is the implication -- encouraged both by Representative Schofield’s assertion that “we’re going to have a lot of illegal votes,” and by the response from the Director of Elections that voters who use the Declaration can be tracked, and possibly referred to local district attorneys for prosecution for illegal voting—that voting without an approved photo I.D. is automatically suspect. (Emphasis is mine.)

So ... why is this suggestion of potential criminal prosecution troubling?

Because it is not a stretch to imagine that statements like this could have a chilling effect -- dissuading eligible, qualified voters without approved photo I.D. from voting. In other words, threatening to investigate voters who file a Reasonable Impediment Declaration could end up hurting the very group of voters that the August 10, 2016, court order was intended to help.

Think I’m exaggerating about “threatening to investigate”?

On September 9, 2016, Rick Hasen (...) posted a story on his Election Law Blog about the motion for enforcement of the August 10 court order filed by the private (non-Department of Justice) plaintiffs in Veasey v. Perry. These plaintiffs were reacting to this August 26, 2016, news story (as quoted in the private plaintiff’s motion):

[Harris County Clerk Stan] Stanart says he will investigate everyone who signs that form to assure they are not lying. Whether anything happens, that’s up to the [Harris County District Attorney’s Office]. But after the votes are counted and the election ends, Stanart said his office will be checking to see whether a person who signed the sworn statement has a Texas Department of Public Safety-issued ID through the DPS database.” (Meagan Flynn, Harris County Clerk Will Vet Voters Who Claim to Lack Photo ID, HOUSTON PRESS, Aug. 26, 2016.)

So to recap: As of late August in a presidential election year, the chief election official in Harris County, the most heavily populated county in Texas, was quoted as intending to investigate voters who claim they lack photo I.D.s.

That threat of punitive or retributive investigation prompted the federal district court in Corpus Christi to issue on September 20 a legal order, in which the court told the State to clarify and make explicit that voters who reasonably lacked photo I.D. were legally entitled to an alternate method of qualifying for a regular ballot. [Emphasis Mukavy's.]

But then in the hearing on September 22, just two days after the court order, the State was still discussing the option of criminal investigations and prosecutions of voters without photo I.D.s, in order to satisfy a Republican state legislator’s concerns about the effective enforcement of the State’s photo I.D. law.

And the statements of the Director of Elections reassuring Representative Schofield that voters who vote without photo I.D. can be tracked and investigated echoed the statements made in August by Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart.

Kulhavy has more background and interpretation, but the gist of it is that the Republican leadership of Texas wants to continue hindering and harassing voters they don't approve of (i.e., might for vote for Democrats) by any and all means necessary.

Thus it is left to President Hillary Clinton and her attorney general, with some support from the Supreme Court Justice she appoints -- and that ultimately gets confirmed by a Democratic Senate in 2017 -- to restore the VRA, put Texas back into preclearance, and fix some of the other ridiculous shit that (Republican) Texas insists on mucking up.

With the above assumptions in place, there should be a flood of new federal judges who are appointed, confirmed, and put to work in short order next year, as the worst conservative nightmares about the judiciary start coming true.

(Update: Harry Enten at FiveThrtyEight reports today that even as Madam President surges ahead of The Barking Yam, her down-ballot Senate coattails are shortening, not lengthening.  Much of the success of Clinton's first two years  in office -- I submit all of it domestically -- rests on having a Senate that will not obstruct her every initiative.)

I'm taking all that as what is going to happen, not what could happen.  Because even though I won't ever vote for her, I plan on holding to her to a higher standard of accountability than many of those who will be.  You might call that unfair; I call it pragmatic.

She can come up short on fracking, the TPP, and Citizens United, but if she's not willing to straighten out Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, et.al. with respect to voting rights, then she's going to be an even weaker and lousier president than I suspect she will be.

Moving on

-- Now that the Traditional Media has finally realized that the 2016 election is fait accompli with Orange Hitler having disintegrated as a candidate, a campaign, and even a respectable human being ... it's time to pay attention to other things, like down-ballot races, whether the Senate and even the House might flip blue, and pretty much anything other than what Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton might have to snark at each other about.  I'm exhausted by both of them and I feel certain a vast majority of the electorate on all sides of the aisle -- not just both -- can agree on that.

For the past eighteen months, I appear to have been the only Texas blogger following the presidential twists and curves on a day-to-day basis, beginning with the best thing I wrote here, about Bernie Sanders and socialism and how his campaign would be undermined by the Democrats.  That was posted a couple of weeks before the birth of Black Lives Matter at Yearly Kos, and I have felt confident in all the time since about the insights I have shared here.  But now I'd like to blog about something else besides the latest "Clinton/Trump slams Trump/Clinton for (fill in the blank)" and will, going forward.

-- Nate Silver uses the 'b' word, as in 'blowout', to describe the current state of the presidential race.  I told you it was over almost two weeks ago.  Nearly a half a million Americans have already voted, and the number climbs every day.  If there is an October Surprise, it's isn't going to have much effect.  Let's move on, and leave the weirdo undecideds to their own devices.

-- Gadfly has hit it out of the park, back-to-back, with these two posts about The Nation and RBG.  If you want to understand the difference between liberals and progressives, and why fewer of the latter are sticking with the Democrats, then read them both.  If you don't want to understand the difference -- and I'm looking at every one of you who have been with Her from the get-go -- then don't read them.  It's too late to help you now.

-- Hillbots keep saying that Wikileaks and Russia are colluding on the drip-drip-drip of her damaging emails.  Blaming the (incorrect) source of the leak instead of what's contained in the campaign messages doesn't wash with any thinking person, and US intelligence is not convinced, either.

There are a lot of things that Julian Assange the person and Wikileaks the organization are, but Russian foils they are not.  Perhaps one day in this country we'll erect statues of whistleblowers, but that day seems far away.

 -- Jill Stein's Texas tour hits El Paso this Friday, Houston on Saturday, San Antonio on Sunday, and Austin on Monday.  These are festival-style events, with live music, food, down-ballot Greens, specialized discussion groups, and more.  She may make an early swing through Houston's East End Street Fest if time and scheduling allows.

-- Darrell Castle of the Constitution Party, Rocky De La Fuente of the Independent, Reform and American Delta Parties, and Gloria LaRiva of the Party for Socialism and Liberation are scheduled to face off in the Free and Equal People’s Presidential Debate at at the campus of Colorado University - Boulder on October 25th.  Kweku Mandela, grandson of the late Nelson Mandela, will provide the keynote address prior to the debate.  It's all part of the United We Stand Festival.

Only Castle -- the best choice for principled Christian conservatives (sic) and Ted Cruz and Ben Carson supporters  -- can be voted for in Texas as a qualified write-in candidate.  (De La Fuente was rejected as a Texas presidential option only last week by a federal judge under the 'sore loser' law.)  Free & Equal hosted Stein, Gary Johnson, Virgil Goode, and Rocky Anderson in two debates moderated by Ralph Nader and Larry King four years ago, which I reported on at the time.

More in the pipeline about down-ballot contests in Texas and Harris County, the prospects of the Democrats retaking both houses of Congress, and a P-Slate just before the start of early voting here on Monday, October 24.

No knockout blows, and nobody got grabbed

With all of the dread leading up to last night's townhall, I have to say ... having come through the other side and now looking back, it wasn't as awful as I feared.  Though it was plenty bad.

Say this for Donald Trump's Sunday night: For about an hour, America stopped parsing his apparent bragging, in the now-famous tape that surfaced Friday, about sexually assaulting women. [...]

Of course, that's because he gave the country so much other grist on which to chew as he flailed his way through a deeply weird, at times nasty, second presidential debate.

There was his promise to appoint a special prosecutor against Clinton if he wins the election. This is banana republic-type stuff, a vow to prosecute one's political opponent. "It's just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country," Clinton said, prompting the Trump response: "Because you'd be in jail."

Go read the rest.  Throwing these pieces of red meat to his fanatical caucus is essentially all that he has left.  As Nate Silver has observed, it simply won't be enough.

At roughly the 20-minute mark of the Sunday’s debate — about the point at which Trump said he’d appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Clinton and that she’d “be in jail” if someone like him had been president — it seemed prudent to wonder whether Trump’s campaign was over. I don’t mean over in a literal sense (it would be almost impossible to replace Trump on the ballot). But over in the sense that we knew the outcome of the election for all intents and purposes, to a higher degree of confidence than FiveThirtyEight’s statistical models — which gave Clinton “only” about an 80 percent chance of winning heading into the debate — alone implied.

Definitely go read the rest.  Clinton performed a surgical evisceration of Trump within the first ten or so minutes, but she did not finish as strongly and seemed to be trying to run out the clock.  She stumbled over the questions about the hacked Podesta emails that contained portions of her undisclosed speeches to corporate titans.

(Trump) put Clinton on defense over private speeches she gave to Wall Street firms, transcripts of which posted on Wikileaks late last week. He presented a steadier front and avoided chasing Clinton into terrain that might damage him, largely keeping the conversation on his own terms. 

More from Think Progress (Podesta's old shop).

Those e-mails included excerpts from her paid speeches to Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street entities, in which she dismisses Americans’ concerns about a “rigged” financial system, says bankers are best equipped to be their own regulators, expresses a desire for free trade in the hemisphere, and asserts that it is often necessary for political leaders to take one position in public and another one in private.

Debate moderator Martha Raddatz pressed Clinton on that final point, reading a question submitted online that asked, “Is it okay for politicians to be two-faced? Is it acceptable for you to have a private stance?”

Clinton responded that she made the comment about public and private positions when talking about the movie Lincoln, in which Abraham Lincoln uses back room deals to secure the constitutional amendment to end slavery. The document revealed by Wikileaks corroborates this account.

The best Tweet of the night.

“As I recall, I was speaking about the wonderful movie LINCOLN. And also about how CATCH ME IF YOU CAN is really underrated.” #Debate

— Sam Adams (@SamuelAAdams) October 10, 2016

Sandernistas were livid about the leaked transcripts, but Bernie Sanders himself gave her a pass  (notice I had to use overseas media to find these stories).  Whaddaya gonna do with this lousy sellout, folks?  Fall in behind him?  Write his name in?

The sniffle count was 104.  Juanita Broaddrick made her way into the media spin room.  Her appearance at the presser before the debate, along with Paula Jones, Kathleen Willey, and others prompted the night's second-best Tweet.

How can any victim of sexual assault sit next to a man accused of sexual assault many times, who brags about his assaults? #debate

— Victoria Graveyard (@VictoriaAveyard) October 9, 2016

In the end, Clinton 'won', but Trump didn't lose.  And none of it makes much difference.

McMullin-Finn

A wrap of last night's shitstorm is coming later today; while you wait ... did you know #NeverTrump candidate Evan McMullin's running mate is a Kingwood native named Mindy Finn?

Finn, 35, has worked for former President George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, Twitter and Google. This cycle, she was a senior digital strategist for the RNC and oversaw digital programs for the NRSC’s targeted races in 2014.

In an exclusive interview with ABC News, Finn explained why she wanted to join the unlikely never-Trump ticket.

“I’ve been part of the group opposing Donald Trump in the Republican Party really since he announced last summer and as he continued to alienate and vilify people in this country” and while she has “encouraged others to run for office, this is now an opportunity to walk the walk.” 

Disillusioned Republicans and sober Libertarians: this is your ticket.  They're good to go as a write-in here in Texas and thirty or so other states.

In 2012, she worked for Twitter, leading their politics and advocacy sector. A Republican activist who has worked to encouraged female Republicans to run for office, she also founded the non-profit Empowered Women, a network to connect center-right and independent women.

She described seeing Republicans coming around to Trump as “pretty discouraging,” but now she is “thrilled to be on the ticket” and she is “all in for the right reasons.”

“This is how it should feel to participate in a democracy,” she said. "I’ve also been incredibly impressed by the amount of traction they have in such a short amount of time and I am thrilled to be part of continuing to build a new movement."

The McMullin campaign acknowledges what an uphill climb they have up against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Most polling does not include McMullin, who announced his bid in August. Their strategy is dependent on attempting to block Trump and Clinton from obtaining 270 electoral votes and sending the election to the House of Representatives. An election hasn’t been decided by the House of Representatives since 1824.

Click on that most previous link and note that this #OpDeny270 effort is something the #StillSanders crowd is also advocating.  Our political lines have really been blurred this cycle, haven't they?  It sure would be horrible if the House were the only ones picking our next president.  Thankfully it stands no realistic chance of happening.  Still, hats off to the brave.

“The path is difficult, but not as unlikely as people think,” McMullin strategist Rick Wilson told ABC News. "This is all about giving Americans a sense they can vote for people they can be proud of and have a more affirmative version of leadership in this country.”

They really ought to campaign in Montgomery County at the very least, where some of Kingwood lies and where Dan Patrick says the free conservative world hangs in the balance.

(Who says I don't want Hillary to carry Texas?)

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance has never said anything like what Donald Trump said to Billy Bush when they thought no one was listening, not in a locker room and not anywhere else.  No decent person says things like that because no decent person thinks like that or acts like that.  What the TPA does say is in this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff looked at turnout and voter registration patterns and what they might say about this year.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos shares an exposé as well as her own personal experiences to describe how Jim Crow continues to pervade the voter registration laws in Texas, in Jim Crow Actively Lurks in Texas: The State’s Voter Registration Laws.

Socratic Gadfly looks back 150 years or so into Southern racial and class history and finds one key word --— "mudsill" -- that explains much of the Trump voter phenomenon.

The Libertarian ticket seems to have hit their ceiling, and not just because Gary Johnson has short-term memory issues, writes PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is glad that poverty is down in Texas, but food insecurity is still high.

Neil at All People Have Value discussed an interactive art work on the streets of Houston. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

Texas Leftist scolds Congress for overriding Obama's veto of the 9/11 legislation.

Txsharon at Bluedaze posts details of the Earth Wind and Fire Energy Summit, in Addison later this month.

The Lewisville ISD sent out a parental advisory about the creepy clown appearances making news in Texas and other states, as reported by the Texan-Journal.

Egberto Willies amplified the Houston Press' commendation of  KPFT as the Bayou City's best radio station.

And Dos Centavos enjoyed the Festival Chicano this past weekend.

===============

Here's more great Texas blog postings from last week!

About a quarter of Texas police shooting deaths over the last decade -- more than 200 -- went unreported to the office of the Texas attorney general despite criminal penalties on the books for noncompliance, according to Grits for Breakfast.

The Texas Election Law Blog reminds those who aren't yet registered to vote in the 2016 election that they have until tomorrow to do so.

The Texas Observer reports on the bursting of the Texas private prison bubble.

Houston has higher levels of inequality and segregation than every U.S. metro except New York and Los Angeles, according to a researcher quoted at The Urban Edge.

The Texas Freedom Network has the latest from Pastor Robert Jeffress, who claims that your right to privacy as interpreted by the Supreme Court is an imaginary construct.

Lone Star Ma celebrates Texas Influenza Awareness Day.

State Rep. Garnet Coleman writes about the Sandra Bland Act that he intends to file next session.

Eileen Smith waded into the fetid swamp of Donald Trump's sexism, a couple of days before that swamp got even nastier.

Betsy Barre has a problem with the collective reaction to the Donald Trump "grab her in the p----" video.

And Ashton Woods at Strength in Numbers publishes the first edition of the Chronicles of an Angry Black Queer.

Sunday Night Fight Preview

I'm sure that's what they're telling the pollsters now, but once they get into the voting booth they'll chicken out and push the straight-party-ticket button.  Because, like most Americans, they're scared to death of what might happen if they don't.

After expressing regret for his remarks, Trump quickly turned his focus to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Trump concluded his statement by hinting very strongly that he will make attacking the Clintons for past sex scandals a centerpiece of his debate appearance on Sunday evening.

“I’ve said some foolish things, but there’s a big difference between the words and actions of other people. Bill Clinton has actually abused women, and Hillary has bullied, attacked, shamed and intimidated his victims. We will discuss this more in the coming days. See you at the debate on Sunday,” Trump said in the video, which was released shortly after midnight on Saturday.

Trump has toyed publicly on several occasions with bringing up sordid aspects of Bill Clinton’s past. After the first presidential debate on Sept. 26, Trump praised himself for not bringing up President Clinton’s infidelities almost immediately after he walked into the spin room and began talking with reporters. Trump declared that he held back because he knew the Clintons’ daughter, Chelsea, was at the debate.

President Clinton has admitted to conducting multiple affairs during his marriage. He has also been accused of rape and other abusive behavior. The New York Times a week ago published an article chronicling the ways in which Hillary Clinton encouraged and oversaw efforts in the 1990s to sully the reputation of women who publicly claimed to have had affairs with her husband.

You should click on that link, if only to relive the wondrous '90's all over again.  You know: Herbert Walker Bush's Gulf war, Nelson Mandela being freed from prison, the divorce and later tragic death of Princess Diana, the Tonya Harding/Nancy Kerrigan Olympic assault, the videoptaped beating of Rodney King by LAPD and the riots that followed, the O.J. Simpson trial, Timothy McVeigh and the Oklahoma City bombing, the capturing of Unabomber Ted Kazynski, and of course the scandals, impeachment, and subsequent re-election of Hillary Clinton's husband.

Especially that last, as Trump has all but promised us.

Trump’s performance in the first debate was widely panned, and his standing suffered in the polls. Leading up to the second debate, which will take place in St. Louis on Sunday, members of Hillary Clinton’s campaign suggested they thought bringing up the dirty laundry would be a bad move for Trump.

“I don’t think it’s a smart strategy for Donald Trump to come after her with these kinds of personal attacks,” Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook told reporters earlier this week.

Mook was responding to Trump’s prior threat to invite one of President Clinton’s former paramours to the first debate. Mook further said he didn’t believe the real estate tycoon would bring up anything “salacious.”

“We do not necessarily expect him to come with the kind of personal and harsh attacks that he has been threatening,” Mook told reporters again Thursday. “We expect a more focused, prepared Trump at this debate.”

This guy isn't named Mook for nothing.

But if anything could prod Trump into bringing up President Clinton’s sex scandals, it might be the Clinton campaign’s telling him not to, which they have done several times in the past week.

Before the firestorm over Trump’s comments about trying to “f*** and “grab” women, Republican consultant Liz Mair told Yahoo News the Clinton campaign was likely trying to goad Trump.

Taunting a wounded, angry, barking yam with a long history of lashing out at anyone and everyone who offends him in the slightest way.  Sounds like a plan. 

“The Clinton folks probably do think they’re baiting him, or are hoping so, but the reality is that baiting or not, Trump is very likely to walk into this trap anyway,” said Mair, who ran a super-PAC opposing Trump. “Self-immolation on live TV: It’s what he does.”

Conventional wisdom ahead of Trump’s latest controversy was that making sex-scandal-based attacks would be a disastrous tactic, especially given Hillary Clinton’s role as the aggrieved spouse. Trump’s resurfaced remarks would make the move even riskier. But Trump’s inner circle seemed divided about how to proceed.

Last month, Trump came from behind in the polls after adopting what his campaign called a “more disciplined” approach and talking about policy issues. He has since slipped. Following the vice presidential debate last Tuesday, Trump’s campaign manager Kellyanne Conway indicated a clear preference for how her candidate should behave.

“I do appreciate when he talks about the issues,” Conway said.

Understated and ironic.

Yet Trump is at his most unpredictable when he is cornered. And so the revelation of the sexually aggressive behavior he bragged about in the 2005 video may have made it more likely that Trump gets down in the mud during the debate.

If you would rather see what a calm, sensible, scandal-free presidential candidate might look like in tonight's debate, Democracy Now! once again will present Jill Stein's response, alongside Trump's and Clinton's, to the various questions they will field.

Whether you're watching, listening, Facebooking, Tweeting -- or not -- much of America will be tuned in with plenty of popcorn on hand.  Lots of DVRs will be whirring; the NFL's ratings are going to suffer again, and even the latest HBO hot drama 'Westworld' could take a hit, as it is repeated throughout the following week and can be skipped for watching later.  It's a dirty job, but somebody's got to follow the Twitter feed, so even if you can't make sense of the medium, watch the top right space here for insights and snark.  And try to find the humor in what should otherwise be a deplorable 90 minutes of townhall-format mudslinging.  The most interesting moment I'll be watching for is how Trump might turn a climate change question into a reference to Monica Lewinsky's soiled blue dress.  "That stain looks like Hurricane Matthew" sort of thing.

Enjoy!

Sunday Funnies