Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Bush should quit and endorse Rubio, Biden dropping in, and more

I still have some Houston city council race previews in the queue, but because of last week's hardware interruption, they await confirmation and verification and such like that.  News is being made by the prezidenshuls, so I got that for ya.

-- Biggest shock to my system was this, yesterday (not Walker quitting but the fallout from it).

It would, of course, be totally ridiculous for Jeb Bush to drop out of the 2016 Republican primary this week. He's got a ton of money in the bank, a ton more money in his super PAC's bank, he's ahead of all the real politicians in national primary polling, and he leads the field in endorsements. If he sticks it out, Donald Trump will probably fade. The Ben Carson boomlet will probably vanish. The nascent Carly Fiorina boomlet will keep going for a while and then she'll come back down to earth too. Bush has the cash to gut it out and try to prevail against all comers and the odds of it working are at least decent.

But if he cares about his family legacy, the good of the Republican Party and the ideological principles he espouses, he should drop out as soon as possible and endorse Marco Rubio.

You might want to read all of it.  Rubio allegedly stands to gain the most from Walker's exit, and he and Bush are both poaching Walker's staff, supporters, donors, etc. in the wake of his withdrawal.  It's hilarious to me that Jeb and Marco are described as "anti-establishment insiders", a classic oxymoron.  Speaking of morons, it's my opinion that Rubio is as much of a stone cold one as Walker, but he seems to think that America is not a planet, so the GOP base thinks he's got some science smarts about him.

Update: More on the logic, or lack thereof, behind Rubo's rise from Steve Benen.

-- Bigger news, lesser shock.

Vice President Joe Biden's aides have begun suggesting to donors that he's more inclined to run for president than not, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter.

The aides say their talks have shifted largely from whether he's going to run to when he's going to announce, sources told the Journal, noting that he could still change his mind if his grief over his recent son's death becomes overwhelming.

“It’s my sense that this is happening, unless they change their minds,” a source who spoke to Biden aides told the Journal.

I have been saying repeatedly that he would not enter the race, but he sees the same thing everybody who's not actually getting paid by the Clinton campaign sees: she's turning radioactive for those in the DNC and the rest of the other 1% Democrats who would wish to just go ahead and anoint the front-runner now, without any debates (or even primaries, if they thought they could get away with it).  Update: Behind the scenes, Clinton wanted just four debates.  And the scheduling of the six -- for which DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz remains under fire for not increasing -- is also designed to protect Hillary from any further self-destruction.

Prior polling suggested Biden pulls as many votes from Bernie Sanders as he does Clinton, but Nate Silver's crew at 538.com revised that thinking just yesterday.

Four national polls released this month (ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, YouGov and CNN/ORC) asked Democratic voters who they’d vote for with Biden in the race and without him. Clinton led Bernie Sanders by an average of 44 percent to 26 percent with Biden in the race. Clinton’s 19-percentage-point edge in those polls equals her lead in the Huffington Post/Pollster aggregate. Without Biden, Clinton’s lead on Sanders jumps to 28 percentage points, 57 percent to 29 percent.

In other words, almost all of Biden’s support is coming from people who, without Biden in the race, would support Clinton. So if Biden decides not to run, Clinton’s standing could snap back to where it was earlier this year.

Nobody tell Ted the truth, okay?  He's got too much of his already-weakened credibility invested in whatever today's snap poll is going to reveal to him through his cloudy Hillary filter.

Once Biden does jump in, he's going to start getting those questions about his Anita Hill problem from the early 1990's.  And that is most certainly a problem.

Tangential reading:

-- How Automatic Voter Registration Can Transform American Politics

50 years after the Voting Rights Act, 25% of Americans are still not registered to vote.  Already the law in Oregon, soon to become law in California.  Not Texas, though, in my lifetime.  Our wonderful state government wants fewer people voting, the fewer the better (for them) and will spend millions of your dollars litigating to keep it that way.

-- The New Civil Rights Activists Who Could Decide the Democratic Race

The Black Lives Matter movement will impact the campaigns of Clinton, Sanders, and Biden to some greater or lesser degree.  After the nominee is chosen, their efforts (or lack thereof) will be closely scrutinized for effects on the general election in November, 2016.


Katy Anders said...

I'm not epxert, but if I were the Democratic Party, which is going to nominate someone near or over 70 years old, I believe I'd fear Rubio the most.

It seems like the younger, less qualified candidate almost always wins open seat elections for the White House.

Granted, Rubio comes across as very young and very inexperienced, but he could make the Dem look old and outdated AND he could help change the Republicans' long-term ethnic demographics problem.

PDiddie said...

A role reversal of 2008, for sure, with the Latino factor thrown in for dramatic effect. Same would apply if Ted Cruz were the GOP nominee as well.