Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Texas Lyceum: Abbott 49, Davis 40

From the press release:

A recent poll conducted by the Texas Lyceum, the premiere statewide nonprofit, nonpartisan leadership group, shows that among likely voters Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott is ahead of Democratic State Senator Wendy Davis by nine percentage points.

The killshot...

[Abbott holds] slight leads with both Independents (38 percent to 32 percent) and with women (46 percent to 44 percent).

It's worse for Leticia Van De Putte (47-33, Patrick) and David Alameel (48-30, Cornyn).

This isn't exactly the boost the top of the ticket was hoping for.  If the debates over the past couple of days move the needle favorably, it will have to be reflected in the next poll, YouGov or some other polling outfit working the field at this time.  Time is simply running short for the Democrats to stem this tide.

Here's the link to the executive summary, the full results, and the crosstabs, as well as the main page where those links are all together.

Update: Gadfly has more.


Gadfly said...

Yeah; cutting it to within 10 is "nice" but the news in indy voters is not; plus, she doesn't have a $30M war chest.

If she does better than Bill White, BG Texas, Lone Star Project, et al, need to spin it as a moral victory and start 2018 recruiting now.

Do you think LVDP would have been better in the top spot, especially if she, not Davis, had been Madam Filibuster?

PDiddie said...

No, I don't. And I don't understand the logic of those who push that premise.

LVDP had a death in the family so a filibuster by her simply wasn't going to happen. But the main reason is revealed in these crosstabs: Dan Patrick is pulling 31% of the Hispanic vote. Four points more than Greg Abbott.

That's the biggest WTF number of them all.

Gadfly said...

I remember the death, yes. You're probably right on the Hispanic issue. That said, and I know you know how to watch polls too, the Lite Guv numbers have a lot of undecideds.

That said, would she have pandered less to the right than Davis? Probably yes, but not guaranteed.

Meanwhile, 7 percent of independents are Greens so loyal as to support Dead Man Walking! :)


You also saw yesterday, I assume, that Bug Man is still "not guilty"?

PDiddie said...

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals strikes again. (Link in my Twitter feed.)