Wednesday, October 08, 2014

US Senate control is too close to call

Nate Silver says Republicans. Jerry Wang -- turning into Silver's archrival, perhaps even nemesis -- says Democrats. At least one person is saying it will be 50-50 (with indys like Angus King and Greg Orman of Kansas caucusing with the Dems).

I can't recall this much polling volatility in so many races this late in the season.  Kay Hagan (NC) appears to be pulling ahead; Mark Begich (Alaska) and Bruce Braley (Iowa) are falling behind.  Alison Lundergan Grimes just got her first good poll in awhile in her effort to topple Mitch "Mr. Turtle" McConnell.  Is it an outlier?

I have no instinct I can place faith in about how things are going to go with 3.5 weeks remaining.  That's unusual.  Some folks are a little more certain, which is to say pessimistic.

I feel pretty confident that Republicans are going to keep doing everything they can to allow as few people as possible to cast a ballot.  And while Democratic governors and gubernatorial candidates around the nation are poised for a big night on the first Tuesday of November... the only outcome I'm sure about, sadly, is Texas.

The Senate, meanwhile, is a coin flip.

Update (10/9): Developments in the 24 hours since this was posted suggest South Dakota is going to be hotly contested.


Gadfly said...

I'd call it 60-40 Dems, myself, on odds.

Gadfly said...

And, in one particular state, at least, reason to be less pessimistic than national polls say.