GOTV postpourri

And just like that *snaps fingers* the campaigns re-focus for the sprint to the finish.

-- Besides the now-tentative TX07 debate on Monday (take note of the update) and the Beto-only CNN townhall next Thursday, there's a few more things going on in H-Town that merit comment.  First, Senator Sylvia -- soon to be Representative Sylvia -- does her part to get out the Latin@vote tomorrow.

(Click the image for a clear view; go here to RSVP for free)

Consistent readers of Brains will remember that I have written on a handful of occasions that 2018 should be a no-excuses year for Latino/a turnout.  And at least one of the times I blogged that was when the Trump administration had already declared war on immigrants, acting essentially as if all people of slightly brown pigmentation were an enemy of the state, and started sending them out of the country, whether they were legal citizens or not.

So there are circumstances under which historically low Latin@ turnout, due to the terrorism of the neo-Nazis currently in charge in Washington -- to say nothing (yet) of their junior partners in Waller County -- can be excused.

But I still don't think Stace's excuse is a good one.

And that shouldn't be interpreted as reneging on the advice that I gave everybody back here.

The simple fact, as reported now in repetitive fashion in corporate media and non-, in the mainstream and out, is that Latinxs probably cannot be turned out to vote in numbers that can sway elections in favor of Democrats.  Certainly some local elections in some states, but what these articles are telling me is that it is time to stop beating this semi-dead horse.  (No offense to the hard work of the excellent young folks of Jolt.)

There is ample evidence in Texas that it is a pretty red horse, anyway.

Hispanic voters in @QuinnipiacPoll:@BetoORourke 61, @tedcruz 37@LupeValdez 50, @GovAbbott 46#txsen #txgov #tx2018 https://t.co/IBl2pXzI41

— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 11, 2018

-- We have been reading for some time now that Beto O'Rourke's fate lies in the hands of these intractable non-voting, mostly RGV-dwelling brown voters.  But so does that of Gina Ortiz Jones, a little further up the Rio Grande along the Big Bend, and it appears she will suffer the same fate as Pete Gallegos did in SD-19's special election last month.

Yes, seemingly everybody except Charles Kuffner understands that it's not just a Latin@ problem ... it's a Texas Democratic Party problem.

-- On the bright side for Team Donkey, Harris County Judge Ed Emmett became the latest moderate (sic) Republican to endorse Democratic lieutenant governor challenger Mike Collier.  He did so in his interview with the Houston Chronicle op-ed board, which endorsed him.  I can't believe I'm agreeing with Campos; their comments are condescending and offensive.

Vote for Collier if you choose -- I cannot -- and vote for Lina Hidalgo over Emmett.  Still wondering if any of those local Republicans incensed at the incumbent over the Astrodome will betray him.

With respect to the Chronicle's endorsements generally ... disregard.  Yes, blind hogs find acorns like Diane Trautman, and you should be voting for Dem judges without me telling you to or them not.

For example, they endorsed James Horwitz's GOP opponent in the Harris County Probate Court #4 race, which made me laugh out loud.  I'm voting for neither in this contest; what's hilarious to me is thinking about how mad this must have made little Noah, who marks himself as making some progress in not voting for any Republicans this year (LMAO).

Note: If the Chronic has cut you off from seeing these articles by trying to force you to buy a subscription, I apologize.  Let me know in the comments if that's the case.

-- Finally, guess who's coming to town Tuesday.

• Rockstar Activist: 1 Ticket, Cash Bar and Lite Bites
• Phone Bank Captain: 1 Ticket, VIP Reception With Open Bar and Lite Bites
• Block Walk Organizer: 2 Tickets, VIP Reception With Open Bar and Private Dinner Reception with Mr. Avenatti

That's $250, $500, and $2500 respectively, in case you were interested.

I sorta doubt whether any of the attendees are going to mention that there are some Democrats who hold him responsible for the Kavanaugh Comeback, and the subsequent Kavanaugh Bump in Republican enthusiasm that recent polling appears to reflect.

Brandon Rottinghaus, political science professor at the University of Houston, says the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has probably hardened the already deep divisions between Democrats and Republicans.

“That hardening is really translating into what we see in the Senate race in particular,” Rottinghaus says. “I think that right now, Ted Cruz has got a slight lead, and the likelihood is that’s going to continue.”

This has led to both RG Ratcliffe at Texas Monthly and Justin Miller at the Texas Observer performing Beto's last rites yesterday (something this reporter did on Monday).

We have debates

-- Cumbersome versus LPF, as a warm-up to MNF.

GOP incumbent John Culberson and Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, candidates for Houston's 7th Congressional District, will debate on Monday, Oct. 15 at 6 p.m. at the University of Houston's Student Center Theatre.

The race has escalated into a slew of personal attacks over health care issues, a potentially decisive issue in the race. The Cook Political Report considers the race a toss-up. The event will be streamed online at abc13.com and Univision.

#TeamLizzie is hosting a couple of far west side potluck watch parties.

Update: Culberson's been in the hospital so this debate might not happen.

New: #TX07 campaigns working to reschedule Monday debate after @JohnCulberson spent 10 days in hospital following surgery for complicated diverticulitis. Letter today from Culberson campaign to @Lizzie4Congress campaign: https://t.co/dnqx7DOo9U

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 11, 2018

-- Beto versus ... Not-Tough-Enough-to-Show-Up Ted Cruz.

.@CNN announces new details re: Oct. 18 town hall with @BetoORourke: 9 p.m., McAllen Performing Arts Center, moderated by @DanaBashCNN. News release says @TedCruz "declined CNN’s invitation to participate in the town hall." #txsen #RGV

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 9, 2018

The still-ongoing NYT poll gives the Zodiac Killer an eight-point lead.  Sometimes it's difficult to comprehend how so many Texans can be so willfully ignorant about something so obvious as the glaring fraud that is Cruz.

-- A week ago, HPN covered a debate between TX02 challengers Todd Litton and Dan Crenshaw which occurred the week before that.  In this excerpt, you'd be somewhat hard-pressed to tell which one was the Democrat and which one the Republican.  I'll just black out their names and you can check the link to see.

“Nobody seriously thinks that we’re going to put a wall across every single inch,” Xxxxxxx said. “It’s just a geographic impossibility. ... ”

“Government should be staying out of the doctor’s office,” Xxxxxxxx said. “We don’t want government in the doctor’s office telling women, or anybody, what they can and should do ...”

This district will either get redder or bluer in 2022, after the Census and depending on what the Texas Lege looks like following the presidential election.

In past cycles, such a contest in Texas’ 2^nd Congressional District wouldn’t even be close. Poe regularly won reelection by double digits. But in 2018?

“It is competitive, I think,” says David Branham, a professor of political science UH-Downtown who attended the debate. “You have to do well if you’re a Republican if you expect to win. If you run poorly, I think there’s a very good chance that you could lose this district.”

The district includes wealthy, conservative suburbs in northeastern Harris County, like Kingwood. It also has more liberal Houston neighborhoods, like Montrose.

“But in that center part, where it connects in the northwest side, I think you’re going to see a lot of change in that part of the district,” Branham says. That’s because the district’s demographics are changing. Hispanic residents now make up about a third of the population, and that percentage is growing.

This is also an area hit especially hard during Harvey. Rice University political scientist Bob Stein says Litton has been aggressive in courting the votes of flood victims.

“I’ve seen some of his public meetings where he goes around telling people, ‘Have you gotten your small business loan application in? Have you gotten your FEMA money in?’ He’s sort of kind of replacing, ′cause there’s no incumbent here, what Ted Poe would normally do as a congressman,” Stein says.

Crenshaw certainly hasn’t ignored the issue of Harvey. During his debate with Litton, Crenshaw said he’d seek a seat on the House Armed Services Committee, where he could pressure the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to complete flood infrastructure projects. But that’s not the central message of his campaign.

“The campaign has played up, ‘I’m a Republican, I support the party, and I support Donald Trump,’” Stein says. “That may be enough, but it’s not enough, I think, to kind of inspire what I will call a heavy turnout in the district.”

Even with a lower than usual turnout, Stein says Republicans probably hold the edge for now, “but nobody’s putting a lot of investment in the future. Nobody thinks this district is going to be here in 2022.”

Why? In between now and 2022 is the next census. “We’re going to get three new congressional seats in Texas, and they’re going to have to go somewhere,” Stein says.

It will most likely be Republicans who will decide where those seats go during the next round of redistricting. But in drawing safe GOP seats, they’ll still have to work around growing minority populations that are more likely to vote Democratic.

“The configurations will be to protect longer-term (Congressional) veterans,” Stein says. “If Crenshaw wins this time, he’s not high on the seniority list.” Which means that Crenshaw needs to do more than just win this November if he’s hoping to last in Congress. He needs to win big.

-- And way back before Labor Day, Joseph Kopser and Chip Roy, TX21's combatants to replace Lamar Smith, went head to head.  The Libertarian in this race is at least interesting.

PAC $$$ to Beto's rescue

And not a minute too soon.



Isn't it a good thing he said he wasn't going to accept any?

On the bright side ... couldn't the same be said of Greg Abbott?  And Dan Patrick?  And Ken Paxton?  And Sid Miller?  Every last one of these sorry sumbitches are just like Trump: a weak man's idea of what a strong man looks like.  All talk.  All hat and no cattle.

(Keep an eye on that Upshot poll going on right now.  The early numbers look grim.)

Beto's bad news

Last Friday morning at the top of this brief aggre-post, I summarized what appeared to be some dark clouds moving across the Second Coming's horizon.  Yesterday the CBS News Battleground Tracker poll revealed Cruz in the lead by six points ...

 ... and this shocker from the crosstabs, courtesy Evan Smith's Twitter feed.

In new @CBSNews poll, @tedcruz viewed as more honest and trustworthy and more relatable than @BetoORourke https://t.co/KJl3xdFk3B #txsen #tx2018 pic.twitter.com/CUVnvO9BnK

— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 7, 2018

Gotta say: if those numbers are not as reliable as all of the polls taken the day before Election Day 2016 (which showed Hillary Clinton winning the presidency), then your man Beto is dead in the water, Democrats.

Still, it's a little early to quit on the last best hope (no matter what Mike Collier keeps saying) for the Donks next month.  And in addition to Latinx turnout, whatever strength or weakness exists in African American votes is going to get an assist tonight from some of Houston's biggest and brightest stars on the hip-hop front.

Now that is going to be a party.

(One more thing worth noting: when it comes to winning, Republicans put aside whatever grudges they have with each other, however great or small, and focus on the end result.  If you want to understand why they keep winning and Democrats keep losing, right there is a great place to start looking.  I have never known a group of people that could cling to a grievance any harder, for a longer period of time, than liberals.)

The Weekly Wrangle

With the deadline to register to vote in the November midterm elections tomorrow, the Texas Progressive Alliance encourages you to double-check your status if you have already registered to be certain you are ready to cast your ballot.

The state's website link to request a voter registration application (within the first link above) crashed and stayed down for several hours this past Saturday.

The state's voter rolls have surged to 15.6 million Texans, surpassing the 14 million registered voters since the last midterm election (2014).  More than 400,0000 have signed up to vote since March, and Harris County led the way with over 55,000 of those.

On to the roundup of lefty blog posts and news from around the Lone Star State from last week!

The Texas Tribune collects everything you need to know about voting this autumn.

Texas Standard says that the Brennan Center will be closely watching Texas again for indications of the kind of voter suppression tactics -- excessively strict application of the voter id requirement, voters illegally purged from the rolls, and the like -- the state has long been guilty of.

Maria Recio at the Austin Statesman describes how John Cornyn secured the necessary votes to get Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court.

Grits for Breakfast seems encouraged by Greg Abbott's apparent evolution on marijuana decriminalization, revealed in his debate with Lupe Valdez ten days ago.  Michael Barajas at TO is somewhat more skeptical.

The Fort Worth Star Telegram has the details on Ag Commissioner Sid Miller complaining about a homemade yard sign, and the police going to the woman's Central Texas home and confiscating it.

Never forget who Sid Miller is: a fascist who tramples on the free speech that offends him.

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals halted the execution of Juan Segundo after questions about his mental capability were raised.

David Collins posted Parts II ("Shut Up About Purity Tests") and III ("The Harder Way") of 'Demanding Better', his pleadings to the progressive electorate to just let the two-party system die already.

Brains and Eggs blogged about the debate between the Houston firefighters union president and Mayor Sylvester Turner over Proposition 2, the 'pay parity' referendum.

SocraticGadfly sees that the Corps of Engineers could soon be pushing an Ike Dike, which he continues to oppose.

Charles Watson at Rural Texas Voices writes about substance abuse trends in Texas.

Texas Vox wants you to know that the state has a plan to ship nuclear waste through your neighborhood, and there is still time for you to speak out about it.

Jim Schutze's observations about the plight of the homeless in the Dallas Observer reveal the sociopathy of city leaders and those who support them in this endeavor.

And the Texas Observer's collection of "Strangest State" news (from the third quarter of the year -- July, August, September) features a woman in Corpus who spoke at a city council meeting dressed as a cockroach.

🚨🚨🚨 Patricia Polastri is at City Council dressed as a roach 🚨🚨🚨🚨

She brought a bag of roaches last month: https://t.co/5OQqDFyWgn pic.twitter.com/zLknHaDKaN

— Ghoulie Garcia 👻🎃🕸 (@reporterjulie) July 17, 2018

Sunday Funnies

Houston firefighters, mayor will debate Prop 2 today

There's a handful of events happening today for you Harris County Democrats needing to boost the voter rolls in this last weekend before the deadline.  For those of you less interested in that, Sema Hernandez will be speaking at Our Revolution's meeting in the Montrose this afternoon.  She is John Cornyn's first announced challenger for 2020.

I'll be paying attention to the debate between Marty Lancton and Sylvester Turner.  It nearly didn't happen because Lillie Schechter was apparently trying to game the rules in favor of the mayor, but after some last-minute negotiations, it's back on.

Houston's firefighters union on Wednesday withdrew and then reinstated its participation in a Saturday debate with Mayor Sylvester Turner on the "pay parity" referendum that goes before voters in November, amid concerns that the event's host, the Harris County Democratic Party, may be giving the mayor too much control over the event.

The hour-long forum, which the party will live stream from St. John's United Methodist Church at 2019 Crawford beginning at 10 a.m., will mark the first time the mayor and the union address the contentious issue on the same stage.

So what was the disagreement all about?

Among the union's initial complaints were that Houston Chronicle opinion editor Lisa Falkenberg was to serve as moderator (the editorial board expressed opposition to the parity proposal in July 2017, though Falkenberg noted her tenure began 11 months after that), and that Democratic Party officials did not agree to let Lancton address precinct chairs or let them vote on whether to endorse the proposition.

County Democratic Party Chair Lillie Schechter had said she respected the union's initial decision to withdraw despite "extensive conversations" about the format of the discussion, noting that the gathering never was envisioned as ending in a vote; such tallies only occur at quarterly gatherings of all precinct chairs, she said, the last of which was held Sept. 13.

"I applaud the HPFFA for its steadfast representation of firefighters and am glad we were able to clarify things sufficiently to regain their participation Saturday," she said. "We look forward to an informative session that will educate voters on this important November issue."

More on that from HPM.  I've blogged twice about the referendum, most recently here (link to the first post within).  So I'll just expand once more on the dynamics.

Mayor Turner has toured the city and, as expected, been hard at work bad-mouthing the firefighters and doom-and-glooming.  His PR flack, Sue Davis, together with press secretary Mary Benton, have been responsible for the online pushback against the firefighters and for the proposal.  Benton's had a rough time of it; here's a Tweet thread where Davis and Groogan at Fox got into the weeds; she had to throw in the towel.

Confusing.
Anti-Prop B TV Spot says “more than 300 police officers will lose jobs” if measure passes. Than Mayoral press secretary @IAmMaryBenton tweets 580 Police officers would be cut.
Nearly 50% difference.
What gives? #Fox26 @suedavis1974

— Greg Groogan (@GrooganFox26) October 5, 2018

The math just hasn't been working for the city no matter whose numbers they use.

The (October 2) announcement comes the same day City Controller Chris Brown presented his cost analysis of the ballot measure, estimating the measure would cost $85 million a year. His estimation is $13 million lower than city finance's estimate of $98 million but doesn't include all the extra pay incentives and other special pay some firefighters receive.

All this whining about holes being blown in city budgets did not stop Mayor Turner and City Council from approving a pay increase for police officers this week.

Neither figure (previous excerpt) includes the additional cost that would be added to the fire budget with the 7 percent raises the city council agreed to give police officers in a new two-year contract approved Wednesday. The agreement means police will have received raises totaling 37 percent since 2011, while firefighters have received just a 3 percent raise.

That's called a 'fuck you, firefighters', in case you were wondering.

Now as I have mentioned previously, the conservatives in town are just happy to own the libs on council for having kicked this can down the road to 2019, and hope to sweep themselves into City Hall as a result.  The establishment, centrist, neoliberal Democrats like Turner and mayor pro tem Ellen Cohen and the rest of their cowardly ilk don't give a shit about the city budget any more than than they care about the working men and women who have served the city all these years under a compensation inequality so severe that it boggles the mind.  They're just trying to save their hides from electoral wipeout in 2019.  If they break the union in the process, too bad.

This situation is not unique to Houston.  San Antonio is fighting a similar battle; so is Chicago.

Democrats can brag all they want about having political control of the major municipalities throughout the United States, but what good is it doing anybody if they govern like Republicans?  Like Republican businessmen and women?

Absent a viable, progressive third party option -- even in non-partisan elections -- we are in desperate need of some better Democrats in this country (Joe Manchin), in this state (Texas Democrats) and in this town.  If the Donkeys currently in charge down on Bagby lose their majority next year, are they going to be blaming the Democratic Socialists instead of the Green Party for that?

A few events and a few developments (not Kavanaugh-related)

-- Beto's response to Obama's non-endorsement: "Don't think we're interested."

This seems to have provoked some consternation among white neoliberals concern-trolling on behalf of black Democratic voters.  There also seems to be a complete lack of awareness on their part as to the price paid for chasing Republican centrists and independent conservatives.  Now I don't give one solid shit for Barack Obama or his policies or his endorsements, as you all should know; I just find it highly amusing that establishment Democrats remain this clueless.

(If you think Obama didn't call these folks to make sure they would accept his stamp of approval ... I have a bridge to sell you.)

O'Rourke is under stress to go negative from his supporters, who are being scared by Ted Cruz's onslaught of negative teevee advertising against the Democrat.  We're way beyond yard sign wars.  Lying and smearing were always going to be what Cruz does because that's who he is.

That was a tactic that failed repeatedly before.  Maybe not any longer.

His campaign is now consumed with shaping Beto O’Rourke as the embodiment of  a uniquely dangerous and unhinged opposition. Despite his warm and fuzzy rhetoric, Cruz insists that the El Paso congressman, much like Obama, is a radical. In fact, Cruz says, he’s further left than Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren and even Bernie Sanders.

In Cruz’s portrayal, O’Rourke is a gun-grabbing tax-hiker who wants to abolish ICE, open the borders, legalize narcotics and obstruct Trump. And he wants senior citizens’ crown jewel — Medicare — to become fully socialized.

[...]

Heading into the final stretch, Cruz has dialed up his extremist caricature of O’Rourke with the explicit intent of scaring the bejeezus out of old, white and conservative Texans — the bedrock of a typical midterm electorate. His campaign, along with a battalion of billionaire-backed super PACs, has unleashed a barrage of attack ads. The offensive has included a Willie Horton-style ad falsely claiming that O’Rourke supports decriminalizing illegal border crossings; the ad features mugshots of undocumented immigrants who repeatedly crossed the border and committed heinous crimes.

In one of the most heated moments during their first debate, Cruz lashed out at O’Rourke, twisting recent comments he made about how the criminal justice system has become “the new Jim Crow” into an attack on police officers. Asked whether he’s concerned about police violence against unarmed black people, Cruz gave a perfunctory response about his concern for all people’s rights (echoing the “All Lives Matter” line). Then, with a somber tone that crescendoed into indignation, he said he’d been to too many police officer funerals because of the “irresponsible, hateful rhetoric” that he accused O’Rourke of using.

The black vote shouldn't be staying home or skipping his line because Beto is too afraid to take Obama's endorsement.  But they might.  Just sayin'.

There's some rumoring among the elite set that polls are starting to break Cruz's way.  I suppose we will see by Monday or so.  In the meantime, Henson and Blank at the Texas Politics Project have slightly updated their 9/12 blog post, excerpted and linked here, and posted it at The Conversation, changing the headline to "Beto won't beat Ted".

-- It's the last weekend to get people registered to cast a ballot in November.  Who's showing up at this event?  Stace is going to be taking pictures, you know.

-- This event today is important for our local homeless veterans.

More here.

-- At ten this morning, a press conference will be held at the Harris County Civil Courthouse, 201 Caroline,  regarding Ken Paxton's three-year-old indictment and stalled prosecution.

A group of concerned citizens, led by long-time civic activists Barbara Ann Radnofsky and the Honorable Frances “Sissy” Farenthold, is presenting a “Petition of Remonstrance” compelling the authorities to move forward with the criminal prosecution of indicted Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for securities fraud.

The case, which includes three felony indictments brought against Mr. Paxton by a Texas Grand Jury more than three years ago, has been stalled due to politically-motivated constraints on funding of the court-appointed prosecution.

A Petition of Remonstrance has been drafted and signed, urging the authorities to remove all obstacles to trial and allowing justice to take its course. Radnofsky explains that “a Petition of Remonstrance is an established channel for citizens to express grievances under the Texas Constitution. It’s older than the Republic of Texas, and we are giving it new life. This Remonstrance will also be presented to the Collin County Commissioners Court. They have a legally-recognized duty under Texas law to ‘stop, look and listen’ to this Remonstrance.”

A video explaining the petition is here.

The Texas Observer has written a revealing piece about how the extremists in Paxton's home county have not only shielded him but martyred him in this regard.  Read the 11-count Tweet thread for a summary if your time is short at the moment.  And then give a hand to Justin Nelson.

More events you should know about this weekend will be posted tomorrow morning.

Kavanaugh confirmation *updates

From the beginning I've thought he was going to make it in and I only wavered a week ago, as Dr. Ford's testimony moved me emotionally ... and the nominee's stunned.  It only took a few hours, though, and the psychotic rant of Lindsey Graham -- and the Republican base's high-fiving and 'owning the libs' -- to bring me back to Trumpworld reality.  Not even Jeff Flake forcing the FBI (whitewash of an) investigation re-changed my mind.

This whip count from Dustin Rowles at Pajiba makes a little sense.

Look: It’s all going to come down to a handful of people. I don’t know how it’s going to go, but my guess is this: Democrat Joe Manchin will flip and vote for Kavanaugh (it’s what his West Virginia constituents would want, and he’s got a sizable lead in the polls, so he’s not worried about being voted out either way). Manchin’s vote will give Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski cover to vote against Kavanaugh (as their Alaska and Maine constituents want), and it will come down to Jeff Flake, who ultimately will vote for Kavanaugh, providing the GOP with 50 votes. Pence will break the tie. Kavanaugh will be confirmed. There will be another Women’s March like gathering before the midterms, and the GOP will pay for it at the ballot box, although it won’t stop Brett Kavanaugh from repealing Roe v. Wade.

What's missing here is Heitkamp from North Dakota -- losing badly in the polling for re-election -- voting for Kavanaugh.  Joe Donnelly of Indiana is making progress but it's still close; he'll vote 'yes' to reinforce that small lead.  Tester of Montana could be a 'no' on Kavanaugh but will likely be an 'aye' as Trump's visits to Big Sky country and the mood of voters there shows some tightening.  These three Blue Dogs give Flake an opportunity to flake out and vote no, and Bitch McConnell still would not need Pence's tie-breaker.

I think it goes more like that.

Update: And with this news, it won't even be that close.

Update II:

Heitkamp a NO! https://t.co/1AyW3zCkil

— David S. Cohen (@dsc250) October 4, 2018

Given her polling, it's a very brave vote because it probably dooms her re-election fate.  That would give the GOP a flip in the Senate.  And unless Heitkamp is joined by a few other hardy souls, I don't see how it -- or the mass protests inside the Hart Senate office building happening this afternoon -- changes the final outcome.

Update III: Tester and Donnelly are both no votes.  That leaves an unofficial whip count at 48-48 with four -- Collins, Manchin, Murkowski, and Flake -- still on the fence (but not what I would call undecided, just undeclared).  I see but one potential 'aye' among those, and even if there were two, Pence breaks the tie.  Grassley said within the past hour that the vote will be held Saturday.

Look how fluid the situation has been just this afternoon, though.

DSA M4A October tour includes Texas stops

From the Tweet announcement:

American politics is in crisis. Too many working people are seeing their wages stagnate, their retirements deferred, and their premiums rise. Medicare for All can solve the crisis in health care but more importantly it represents a transformative demand that has the potential to change American politics all together.

Long-time DSA member, Sanders Institute Fellow, and leader in the Healthy California single-payer campaign Michael Lighty will visit cities across the South and West to lecture on the current political and economic crisis, why Democratic Socialism is the answer to Trumpism and how the demand for Medicare for All has the potential to galvanize a mass working-class base in the next two years.

Join us at any one our tour stops to learn how the Democratic Socialists of America are building a movement of the working class majority to demand Medicare for All and how you can get involved!

Here are the cities and dates, with locations and times yet to be determined.

North Texas
Monday, October 15

Concho Valley - San Angelo
Tuesday, October 16

Austin
Thursday, October 18

Rio Grande Valley
Friday, October 19

Houston
Saturday, October 20

Orlando
Sunday, October 21
w/ Jose LaLuz

Miami
Monday, October 22
w/ Jose LaLuz

New Orleans
Tuesday, October 23

Phoenix
Thursday, October 25

East Bay (Oakland, Berkeley)
Sunday, October 28

=======================

My first thoughts about this were: DSA is kicking off 2020 a little early, pressuring the Democratic Party once again to move to the left.  (Remember, it's a caucus within.)  So all of these Democratic candidates currently running as hard as they can away from Medicare for All -- like Beto O'Rourke and Lizzie Fletcher, to use two examples -- are suddenly going to be a little embarrassed on their home field in the middle of the early voting period.  They'll have to re-assert their disavowal of Medicare for All (Lizzie) or explain the reasons why they aren't supporting the existing legislation, HR 676 (still waiting for those details, Beto), which are precisely and primarily the reasons both have failed to earn my vote.

Likewise, DSA sets itself up to catch all the shit that Hillarian donuts and corncobs who are still seething over 2016 would normally be directing at the Green Party (or even non-voters).

You perhaps noticed that Bernie scored a win over Amazon just this morning on a livable wage for that company's employees.  So keep an eye out on your social medium of choice for the activists and/or candidates who acknowledge that ... and the ones who don't.  Or for that matter, the ones who would deny his efforts made the difference.  (Better working conditions and yes, better benefits need to be next, Mr. Bezos.  Also... looking at you, Walmart.)

Looking forward to attending one of these rallies.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance soldiers on to November -- and beyond -- as one of its original members has summarily and without announcement ended his participation.

Socratic Gadfly broke down the motivations of Kavanaugh and interlocutor Jeff Flake, as the confirmation process paused for the FBI to conduct an investigation into some of the allegations against the nominee.

Bonddad's thought from yesterday is that Trump is stomping all over the economic message that Republicans are trying to run on in 2018.

After the second debate between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz got postponed due to the machinations associated with the Kavanuagh confirmation hearings, Beto scheduled a rally in Austin with Willie Nelson.  And it was huuuuge.

RG Ratcliffe was there and filed a report.

Lupe Valdez got the best of Greg Abbott in their debate Friday evening, but RG wondered if their fundraising difference would be an insurmountable obstacle for the challenger.

The Texas Tribune brought many of the state and nation's movers and shakers together at #TribFest18, from Eric Holder and Amy Klobuchar to Michael Avenatti and Nancy Pelosi.  Some of the Republican candidates for Speaker of the Texas House also introduced themselves.  Oh, and a few candidates for office showed up, like Beto.

Texas Standard talked to journalists Nancy Barnes, executive editor of the Houston Chronicle, Anna Palmer, a senior Washington correspondent for Politico and co-author of their twice-daily newsletter Playbook, and Mike Wilson, editor of The Dallas Morning News, about the effect the Texas Senate race is having on the downballot midterm contests.

Also from TribFest, and via Progrexas, the CEO of Southwest Key (that's the company managing baby jails all over Texas) claimed he had no financial interest in a company that SW Key leases some of its facilities from.  That turned out to be a false statement.

Sid Miller's sloppy handling of another yet another program -- tick pesticide administration -- brings more focus to his completely inept management of the state's Agriculture Department.  Michael Barajas at the Texas Observer has the story.

Barajas at the TO also had a compelling piece about how the Collin County GOP derailed the criminal prosecution of Ken Paxton, and made him a conservative folk hero.

Allegations of sexual misconduct endanger state Sen. Charles Schwertner's enclave of power, and by extension the recently-strengthened grasp of the Republican majority in that body.  (This blogger is not able to more forcefully condemn Schwertner because his own state senator happens to be Borris Miles.  And until this blogger and his neighbors can clean up their own glass house, it's best not to throw stones.)

The SAEN reports that the  mayors of Texas' largest cities are joining forces to protect themselves against the Texas Legislature's efforts to assert dominance over their 'local control' initiatives. 

As the deadline to register to vote in this autumn's election approaches, Texas Freedom Network acknowledges the efforts of 'Texas Rising' to engage adults from ages 18-29 to get involved.

Andrea Zelinski at the Chron notes that the Texas GOP, fearful of a blue wave, is working hard to scare out its straight-ticket voters.  Greg Abbott, ignoring his own opponent as usual, went on Fox News just this morning and attacked O'Rourke as a 'cult-like figure, similar to Wendy Davis'.  Expect more of these crazed, venomous rants as we get closer to the early voting period.

David Collins explains his voting motivations, Pages of Victory is a little depressed about the state of national affairs after watching the Kavanaugh hearing -- and challenges America's youth to pick up the gauntlet, and Lawflog observes that not only can the dead vote ... they can hire legal representation!

Grits for Breakfast has another comprehensive aggregation of criminal justice developments that includes news about the resignation of Bexar County's top jailer, the Austin PD's too-high rate of shootings of people experiencing a mental health crisis, the McClennan County (Waco) biker/Twin Peaks cases still languishing, and more.

The new owners of Free Press Houston issue a statement.

The Texas Moratorium Network asks for some financial help to bring five death row exonerees to Austin for their March to Abolish the Death Penalty on Saturday, October 20.

With funding approved by the Dallas City Council, a plan for the city's response to climate change moves ahead, says Rita Beving at Texas Vox.

Jef Rouner at the Houston Press writes about what happens in cemeteries when a hurricane comes through.  (It can be more than a little spooky.)  And the SA Current has a list of pumpkin patches and corn mazes for fall-lovers to enjoy.

Sunday Funnies

Valdez v. Abbott tonight

In their one and only match of the season.

Gov. Greg Abbott and his Democratic opponent, Lupe Valdez, are facing off in their first and only debate Friday evening in Austin.

The hourlong event is set to begin 7 p.m. at the Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library, and it is being hosted by the Nexstar Media Group. Nexstar will air the debate on its 12 stations throughout the state as well as broadcast partners in Houston, San Antonio, Corpus Christi and Dallas. Some Telemundo stations will also carry the debate, and a livestream of it will be available on the websites of the 12 Nexstar stations.

I'm hoping she acquits herself well.  A good showing tonight, with some further tightening of the polling, coupled with renewed interest in Latin@s turning out for her would mean the incumbent would have to a) shoot more of his giant wad on himself and less on others; b) put a little fear of Gawd into Gov'nah Holy Roller and compel him to stop ignoring his opponent, as his re-election campaigns have so often done.

But Valdez is prone to the unforced error, as we know, so let's expect that she is prepped but not overly so, calm but aggressive, cool under fire but not blase'.  A tall but not unreachable order.

I've buried the lede here: I'll be voting for Lupe for governor.  I even sent her a small contribution, her fundraising being what it is.

There were obviously plenty of reasons for me not to, and I don't feel like re-listing them.  (Gadfly will probably do that once he reads this.)  There are nearly no options beyond D, R, and L on this year's ballot for statewide candidates, and qualified write-ins are limited to a handful of downballot races.  I'm already undervoting the two federal contests at the top of my ballot, US Senate and Congressional Seventh, along with the Lite Gov and Ag Commish races.  My ballot is going to be pretty thin after I skip so many high-profile matches, employing the only tool the state of Texas allows as a NOTA vote.

What ultimately persuaded me to vote for Valdez was reading, and re-reading, this article in the Austin Statesman a few weeks back, describing her POV as a landlord (lady?).

Colin Howell and Jayme Thompson have a dream to start a mobile food truck — the Flying Pineapple Baking Company — selling retro desserts in Dallas-Fort Worth.

What’s made the numbers work on their ambition is their phenomenal rent — $700 a month for a piece of a fourplex on the outskirts of Oak Cliff’s trendy Bishop Arts District.

“This is Bishop Arts. For what?” Howell said he responded when he was shown the place and told the rent. “It’s like half the price of all the other places around here. It’s great.”

The couple’s landlord — Lupe Valdez, the former Dallas County sheriff and current Democratic candidate for governor — said the low rent was about giving Howell and Thompson a chance to succeed.

“That gave them the opportunity to be able to go beyond themselves and be able to start the food truck and be able to get engaged and be able to do things they would never have been able to do if they had to spend so much to be in an area like this. It’s about giving people the opportunity to get beyond themselves,” Valdez said.

For 25 years, Valdez — alongside jobs as sheriff and a federal agent for various agencies, including Customs and Homeland Security — has purchased properties in Oak Cliff, fixed them up with her own money and muscle, and rented them at below-market rates in what she describes as an act of entrepreneurial social conscience and giving back.

“These people are getting an opportunity that somebody gave me,” Valdez said. “You’ve got to pay it forward, except I’m doing it eight times or 10 times more than it was done for me.”

My primary voting issue this cycle is single payer healthcare.  Medicare for All, if you prefer.  'Access to healthcare' is mealy-mouthed consultant-speak for "I'm not supporting that".  (I have already made an exception to this rule for Justin Nelson.)  Close behind that is not voting for Democrats who are loudly pandering to centrist Republicans for their crossover votes.

(Beto O'Rourke has been doing this tapdance on healthcare all year, and seems to have 99% of Texans fooled about it.  Lizzie Fletcher choked on both this week.  Longer post later.)

Lupe wins my vote because she cares about poor people at a time when there are precious few politicians that do.  And she has put her money where her heart is.

That is more than good enough for me.

'A day that will resonate in history'

When Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh and his original accuser Christine Blasey Ford deliver dueling testimony (later this morning), they will conjure drama of an intensity unusual even in the Trump administration.

In Room 226 in the Dirksen Senate Office building, Kavanaugh will effectively stand trial after three women came forward with accusations about his conduct as a teenager in the alcohol-fueled youth party culture of the early 1980s.

"I will not be intimidated into withdrawing from this process. This effort to destroy my good name will not drive me out," Kavanaugh will tell senators, while denying all the accusations against him, according to an advance excerpt of his remarks. Kavanaugh also denied new accusations released in Senate Judiciary Committee transcripts Wednesday night.

But first, Ford will step forward to tell her story -- exposing herself to the world, instantly becoming an icon of the social revolution unleashed by the #MeToo moment and putting her own reputation and her family's safety at risk.

"I am here today not because I want to be. I am terrified," Ford will tell the committee, according to an early copy of her testimony.

"It is not my responsibility to determine whether Mr. Kavanaugh deserves to sit on the Supreme Court. My responsibility is to tell the truth."

Thursday is about far more than a painful and compelling human drama that will be decided not by a jury, but the votes of 100 senators. It is the culmination of decades of political and societal forces that have led up to a political pivot point.

I'll be live-Tweeting the hearings; follow along by keeping an eye on the top right box here.  If your Tweet feed gets as busy as mine does, it will help you separate the wheat from the chaff.

Another leading character in Trump's churning political melodrama, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein is waiting for his fate to be decided.

Speculation has been rife all week that he will be fired or resign in a meeting with the President on Thursday -- but Trump said at his news conference he was thinking of postponing their chat so he could concentrate on the Kavanaugh hearing.

Also covering that as well (my schedule today has been cleared).

Tomorrow night, Lupe Valdez and Greg Abbott debate, and Sunday evening is round 2 of Beto and Ted  Update: Postponed due to Kavanaugh developments.  So we're rested, ready, but not tanned for a weekend of heavy political action.  The blogs on the right, below the Tweet feed, will be updating continuously with the news you'll be looking for.  Brains and Eggs is your uncomplicated link source for the latest on everything that happens today and all weekend, mixing in a few toons and laughs to keep the tension less torqued.

Come hang out.

Proposition B: Houston firefighters pay parity

The last time I blogged about this topic, over a year ago, it became the fifteenth-highest clicked post in the sixteen-year history of Brains.  I'm tempted to excerpt myself, since I said it all so well there, but I'll leave readers the choice of re-reading me.

Little has changed in the past fourteen months.  The petition's signatures to get on the November ballot were finally approved, after some typical slow-walking through City Secretary Anna Russell's office; Sylvester Turner and the Democrats on City Council -- a majority -- are still opposed and speaking ominously about layoffs of police and firefighters if it passes; and the proposition remains likely to sail through in resounding fashion, leaving Mayor Turner and Council with their bluff called.

Sunday before last, Turner wrote his op-ed in the Chron against it ...

Please read my op-ed in today’s newspaper. I support firefighters, but Prop. B is bad.
I have negotiated successfully with city workers and police officers on pensions & pay raises. I know the city cannot afford a 25 percent raise for any employee group. https://t.co/vSRuXmAFFp

— Sylvester Turner (@SylvesterTurner) September 16, 2018

... and so did Patrick 'Marty' Lancton of the HPFFA, obviously in favor.

Turner blames the city's revenue cap, the previous (Annise Parker) administration for leaving him this landmine, and of course, the firefighters themselves for being greedy.

Lancton makes a more compelling case.

For Houston firefighters, the last decade has been difficult as we watched our pay dramatically erode. As the city of Houston found ways to increase pay for police officers by 30 percent since 2011, our pay rose by only three percent in that time. One Houston firefighter was even featured on a poster for federally supported Section 8 housing.

By voting “yes” for Proposition B in the November election, voters can help take the politics out of public safety in Houston. Firefighters have asked the city for competitive pay and better working conditions for several years. This followed our giving the city major concessions after the economy collapsed in 2008. City promises of better pay when the economy improved were not kept.

Instead, city politicians refuse to equally value the service and sacrifices of Houston first responders. Now, too many Houston-trained firefighters are leaving for other departments around the nation, including suburban departments that pay almost twice the starting salary as Houston.

Some suggest fire and police jobs are different and should not be linked by pay. In fact, fire and police are paid equally on a rank-by-rank basis throughout the United States — including in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Dallas. ... [I]n Houston, the pay of City Council members is linked with that of local judges. What nobody mentions locally anymore is that police and firefighters had pay parity for many years here — at the request of police.

HPD has long fought with HFD over trivial matters, like resentment over the fact that firefighters can sleep on the job, while police officers get fired for doing so.  Terminations of cops are, of course, at the heart of the police officers' objections to the firefighters' pay parity proposal.

In June, a scientific survey was taken of Houston residents. More than 75 percent of the surveyed citizens supported compensating our fire and police professionals equally. They recognized that the requirements and risks of the two jobs are similar, and they viewed the issue as urgent. The same was true of the 60,000 Houston voters that signed petitions — in record time, just over a week — to put the pay raise on the ballot.

If the city had certified the signatures on time, in accordance with the law, this election would have been held last year. Instead, some city politicians chose to punish firefighters for seeking voter help. It actually took an order from a state district judge to compel the city to obey the law and certify the petitions and hold the election.

The city of Houston has acted, and has continued to act, in bad faith throughout this years-long, multiple-administration process.  And they're about to get their asses handed to them because of it.

Here's the website supporting Prop. B and here's the one opposing it.  If you're truly on the fence, then spend some time on both.  Oh yeah, here's Turner-vanquished Bill King, wringing his hands and clucking his tongue about this sorry state of affairs as he votes for the firefighters.  His answer would never be to raise any taxes, of that you can be certain.  He's the same old monkeywrench in the gears he's always been.

I had the following Twitter exchange with former Mayor Parker in August; it encapsulates our respective thinking-- along with local establishment lackey Erik Vidor's, who chimed in to support Parker -- perfectly.  (The deleted Tweet Parker was responding to contained some animus from a firefighter about the tone of of previous negotiations. Click to open the thread for all responses.)

I’m fascinated by this trope that if management bargains hard at the table with labor you must hate them. No. It’s business. You want things—I want things. None of the other union bargaining teams I faced ever took it personally. https://t.co/u0QRgdxfOg

— Annise Parker (@AnniseParker) August 10, 2018

Mayor Turner and the Democrats on Council have everything at stake here, because they are too frightened to raise revenues, either by establishing a vote to eliminate the revenue cap or by instituting an increase in sanitation or water fees.  They cannot make the arguments in favor of paying for a fair salary increase for firefighters, so they recycle the same scare tactics used in the police pension negotiations.  Nothing but Republican-styled fear-mongering: layoffs, services cut, etc.  Neither their enemies nor their allies are buying their cowardly bullshit a second time.

Some of them will be turned out of office in 2019 because of it.  And they deserve to be.

Perhaps then we can elect some Democrats who remember how to govern like Democrats, and not like Republicans.  Perhaps we'll even elect a progressive independent or two.

Vote for the firefighters and let the neoliberals fend for themselves.