Tuesday, October 22, 2019

More P Slate

I'll give these Houston council suggestions for your voting consideration a similar treatment as I did earlier, adding a prediction as to how our Bayou City leadership may tilt -- left or right -- following their (that is to say, my projected) outcomes.

I'm listing in bold the names of the Democrats for whom I would vote if I lived in the district.

With respect to the city controller race, Chris Brown is now taking seriously the challenge from Orlando Sanchez, and his own ethics kerfuffle may dent his prospects, but I still feel it's about turnout, and specifically Latinx turnout, that will either hurt him or not.

Prediction: Brown should be able to hang on to Sylvester Turner's coattails and return to his office on Bagby, but if the World Series, the weather, or disinterest in these elections dampens Democratic turnout, he could be in trouble.

District A: ... is for Amy Peck, who's been waiting to take a seat downtown for a long time.  She will be replacing her boss, Brenda Stardig, and whether she is an improvement, conservatively speaking, or not ... I leave to the insiders.

District B:  I believe Tarsha Jackson has punched a ticket to the runoff, with the TOP organizers out in force working the precincts for her.  The Chron picked her over the many solid candidates in the running here.  And with the most money raised, spent, and left to spend, I'll guess that Renee Jefferson Smith joins her.

Prediction: A smooth transition from longtime CM Jerry Davis to either woman -- or one of the others -- should benefit the district.

District C:  I would still mark this one Abbie Kamin and/or Shelley Kennedy from the left and Mary Jane Smith or Greg Meyers from the right, though Daphne Scarbrough has raised some money and may have some input on the outcome.

Prediction: There will be one Democrat and one Republican in the runoff to replace Ellen Cohen.

District D:  Brad 'Scarface' Johnson and one other to December.

Prediction: CM Dwight Boykins, about to have some extra time on his hands and about as conservative an African American Democrat as they come, may have some influence on who wins this race next month.  Maybe the district isn't ready for Jordan.  If anybody wants to give me some feedback off the record, you know how to reach me.

District E:  Dave Martin.

Prediction: The seat is safely conservative for another term.

District F:  As unpredictable as ever.  Tiffany Thomas and Giang "John" Nguyen (party affiliation undetermined by primary voting history) have a little bit of money to spend.  Richard Nguyen, the former council member, and Van Huynh, the COS to the current one, are likely best known to consistent voters.  But handicapping the race without inside intelligence is impossible.

Prediction: A runoff.

District G:  Incumbent Greg Travis will slide back in.

Prediction: Bizness as usual.

District H:  Blogger nonsequiteuse has discovered that incumbent Karla Cisneros has been "hoping" against the I-45 expansion while taking money from its developers.  That's reason enough for those who are opposed to the massive rebuilding project to vote for Isabel Longoria.  (Ejecting a Moron Campos client just for his shitty blog would be reason enough for me, but YMMV.)

Prediction: I suppose we'll see.  I hope Cisneros is jammed into a runoff.

District I:  Incumbent Robert Gallegos looks to be in good shape.

Prediction: He's about as progressive as Houston city council allows.

District J:  Edward Pollard has had the highest visibility among these.  Without some some inside skinny, though, it could still go to one of Nelvin Adriatico, Freddie Cuellar, or Sandra Rodriguez, all of them Democrats who've raised a little money and worked at getting elected.

Prediction: Maybe a runoff with one of the Dems and the one conservative, Barry Curtis.  Maybe not.  It will be difficult to replace Mike Laster's progressive voice on Council.

District K:  My CM, Martha Castex-Tatum, is also safe.

Prediction: She's done a good job after taking over for the late Larry Green.

Even if Council adds a few Democrats in these alphabet district contests, it may not get more liberal, much less progressive.  The best hope for that lies in the At  Large races, where defeating Knox and Kubosh and replacing Christie offer the best chance for improvement.

And yes, my view on constitutional amendments is still in the pipeline.  Check the Twitter feed at the top-right hand column for everybody else's POV; I'll offer mine shortly.

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