Monday, July 04, 2016

"Battleground bloodbath"

Put down that hotdog and take a look at this.  Via Politico, Ballotpedia's most recent state polling shows Hillary beating Trump ...

  • in Florida by 14 percentage points, 51-37
  • in Iowa by 4, 45-41
  • in Michigan by 17, 50-33
  • in North Carolina by 10, 48-38
  • in Ohio by 9, 46-37
  • in Pennsylvania by 14, 49-35
  • and in Virginia by 7, 45-38

Landslide territory -- which is to say that she has no place to go but down from here.  Look at all the states in which she registers 50% or nearly; that tells you they surveyed just two horses in the race.  Hilariously, Ballotpedia also polled John Kasich and Paul Ryan against Clinton, and did include Gary Johnson in a separate three-way (but not Jill Stein).  Here's how that more realistic view of the landscape appears:

  • Clinton 47, Trump 34, Johnson 12, neither/refused 7, MOE +/- 4% in Florida
  • Clinton 38, Trump 36, Johnson 16, neither/refused 9 in Iowa
  • Clinton 47, Trump 30, Johnson 14, neither/refused 9 in Michigan
  • Clinton 44, Trump 37, Johnson 10, neither/refused 10 in North Carolina
  • Clinton 41, Trump 34, Johnson 15, neither/refused 10, MOE 3.9% in Ohio
  • Clinton 46, Trump 32, Johnson 13, neither refused 9, MOE 4% in Pennsylvania
  • Clinton 43, Trump 35, Johnson 11, neither/refused 11, MOE 3.9 in Virginia 

Update: If you feel like sanity-checking one state, look at RCP for the Tarheels.  Two late-June polls gave Hillary just a two-point lead there ... and one had Trump ahead by 2.

I've been reading some things that say Johnson pulls votes from Clinton in similar numbers as he does Trump, but Ballotpedia's results here suggest that's not enough to keep her from a very large Electoral College victory in November.  If you're one of those people who likes to parrot that "polls this early don't mean anything", then you might be a junior political consultant or a Trump voter.

As for surveying Kasich and Ryan as the GOP nominee, maybe Ballotpedia should just go ahead and do a Mitt Romney versus Joe Biden head-to-head, no third party candidates.   Because we wouldn't want reality to intrude in any way.

Update II: NPR's magic tool lets you  manipulate data like voter demographics and turnout to predict the winner.  Nutgraf:

"I will win New York against Hillary Clinton," Trump promised at a campaign stop this spring. It's a claim he's fond of reiterating, and since he has articulated a specific desire to win New York, we wanted to see what it would take for him to turn his home state red. Assuming all other demographic groups vote exactly as they did in 2012, and assuming turnout also remains constant, Trump would need to win 97 percent of white men in New York. 97 percent.

Here's your takeaway:

If Clinton somehow loses this election, it would qualify as the most stunning collapse in political history.  And that shame would be all on her.  No more Green excuses, Hillbots.  Look above at how the party and its nominee are still being ignored, after all.


Gadfly said...

Exactly. For Hillbots saying she has to have my support, if true, that means she has a lot more problems than my vote can fix.

Otherwise, the back of my mind has wondered if she will be this year's tom Dewey.

Gadfly said...

Oh, tell Noah to stop using his HS graduation picture.