Saturday, November 01, 2014

Some statewide and local prognostications

While we wait for Charles to weigh in, take the election quiz Gail Collins has going on over at the NYT.  I scored six out of eight.

Update (11/2): Kuff is up, a little more optimistic than me (not a bad thing, since he knows the numbers best).  Note particularly where we differ on the Texas House.

This late development with respect to how Battleground Texas has made a mistake in their evaluation of statewide turnout isn't that big a surprise to me, frankly.

In its memo, a copy of which is posted on The Texas Tribune website, Battleground indicated that 1,092,006 Texans in the 70 largest counties turned out to vote through the 10th day of early voting in 2010. But figures from the Secretary of State's website show more voters — 1,283,229 to be exact — had turned out in just the 15 largest counties over the same period.

Using the lower baseline from 2010 produced a seeming 36 percent jump in the number of people showing up to vote, astronomically higher than the turnout rate in the 15 largest counties being tracked on the secretary of state's website.

Those figures show 1,291,393 voted through Wednesday, an increase of .6 percent, or 8,164 people. Because the state has grown and added more voters to the rolls, the turnout rate has gone down so far in those counties. It was down 6.6 percent as of Wednesday and slightly more, or 7.2 percent, as of Thursday.

I thought they were being a little sunny in their outlook, and it's a shame for the political career of the person(s) who screwed it up, but it didn't really impact my long-range view of how the races were going; I had been taking it as blue spin.  Karl-Thomas Musselman did a better job evaluating early turnout; here is his spreadsheet.  The bottom line: it's ever-so-slightly down from 2010... which may not be a terrible thing, considering how red the turnout was in 2010.  But the takeaway is that BGTX's efforts in executing Democratic voter registration and turnout appear to have tread water.  That's unfortunate for them but considerably more unfortunate for everyone who isn't a conservative Texas Republican (which is very probably most Texans, irrespective of whether they  vote or do not).

Outside of the EV numbers, heavy rain is forecast for much of Texas on Election Day.

Certain governor's races elsewhere in the country -- Scott Walker versus Mary Burke in Wisconsin, Rick Scott versus Charlie Crist in Florida -- are going to be much closer, and probably more enthusing, than ours in Texas.  I'm going with a 9-point victory for Wheels, 53-44 with 2 for Kathie Glass and something under 1% for Brandon Parmer and whomever else is on the ballot as a write-in.  Update: Davis' postmortems have begun.

That's progress, I suppose.  It won't be that close for the other Democrats down the ballot, unfortunately.  Something on a 55- 42 range, with some deviation in the Agriculture Commissioner's race, where I expect Kenneth Kendrick to pull Jim Hogan under 40 with about 5-6% of the total.  Could be a point or two higher than that.  May crowd ten percent, based on his strong (for a Green in a statewide race with a D on the line) polling.  Similarly, Emily Sanchez could very well get to her polling number (5%) in the US Senate race.

No Democrats I have spoken to wanted to say so -- even privately, because he's so wealthy and might help other Dems with big checks -- but David Alameel was one of the weakest candidates on the ballot.  Not as weak as Hogan, and not as weak as all of the ones (in all parties, mind you) who ran no kind of campaign whatsoever, but weak nonetheless.

So unless I and everyone else will be stunned with a Taser on Election Night as the returns roll in, here's what I see with respect to our beloved Texas:

-- The Texas House gets a little redder, something on the order of two or three seats.  I can't call it between Susan Criss and Wayne Faircloth; it's just too close.  In Wendy Davis' old Senate seat, Libby Willis, the D, will hold off the R Konni Burton, leaving things as they were in the Texas Senate.  With the notable exception of all the extremist Republicans replacing the moderate ones.

-- In Texas Congressional seats, there will be no changes.  Pete Gallegos hangs on, and everybody else holds their place.  This is what redistricting hath wrought, as The Daily Show reminded us this past week.

-- Harris County, by Greg Wythe's Clarity algorithm (he didn't invent it but did utilize it on the local early voting numbers for our interpretation), suggests that many Republicans are going to win at the courthouse with something on the order of 54-46... based on his calculation of the earlies.  That closes the 2010 gap, of course; just not by enough.  Local Republicans are nervous, but I don't think they have much reason to be.  They're just trying to scare out what remains of their vote.  That's also what the big hate rally on Sunday is all about.  Lone Star Q has the details on the responses to that.

Update: Greg's latest.  Strong turnout on Election Day -- probably in the pouring rain -- is the last chance for the local blue team to get over the hump.

Will the Harris DA race between Kim Ogg and Devon Anderson be the exception to this rule?  Too close for me to call.  A lot of Republicans seem to be in opposition to Anderson.  How many and how that translates at the ballot box remains to be seen.

More if it breaks late, and as I am still serving EVBB on Election Day, blog postings and Tweets and Facebook updates that are intended to sway or influence people and their votes are not going to appear.

So take everything I say with a grain of salt.  You know, as usual.

Update: Socratic Gadfly, a little more caustic than me.

1 comment:

Gadfly said...

Sonds about right; and, per my piece, if Millennials, contra the assumptions of BGTX, etc, aren't in the Dem bag, well, then it's done little of result indeed. And, per the Stewart clip, 5 GOP Congresscritters stems from foor Dem turnout in 2010, of course.

On the big race, per the respondents to the poll on my website, Davis might cut the gap to 10 percentage points, vs the 13 in Perry-White, but, she won't get any closer than that ... I'll be putting up a few of my own thoughts either later today or tomorrow.