The Weekly Wrangle

With nearly all eyes and ears focused on the hourly breaking developments surrounding Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh today, the Texas Progressive Alliance's weekly roundup of blog posts and lefty news captures reactions to the Beto O'Rourke-Ted Cruz debate last Friday night.

Cruz got a poor review from Justin Miller at the Texas Observer for his frothing, off-topic attacks on Hillary Clinton, George Soros, and "soshulists", apparently in his reality surrogates for O'Rourke.

Undeterred by recent polls showing the race in a dead heat, Cruz used the debate to double down on his core campaign strategy: igniting a fire underneath his conservative base, confident that their numbers are enough to win if they turn out in force. In his attempts to present O’Rourke through a kaleidoscope lens of Fox News fears, Cruz twisted and prodded with bad-faith attacks — coming across as a snide, oily weasel to the people who already hate him while pushing all the right buttons for the people he was really talking to.

O’Rourke often found himself on his heels, trying to parry Cruz’s slippery accusations — at one point, when Cruz accused him of not supporting the Second Amendment, O’Rourke stared him down from across the stage: “That’s not true. Of course I support the Second Amendment.”

Kevin Diaz at the Houston Chronicle used the already worn-out "knife fight" analogy and suggested Cruz won the debate.  He quoted two political science professors, one who fell back on prizefighting metaphors ...

"If this were a boxing match, Cruz would get the judges' decision but would exit the ring having taken some serious blows," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political scientist.

O'Rourke, by comparison, seemed less fluid and aggressive. "O'Rourke showed he can stick and move but needs to get a knockout in the town hall debate coming up (in Houston September 30) ..."

... and one who offered a better question to ponder.

"It's helpful to have two articulate candidates from opposite parties engage so spiritedly and defiantly in presenting their versions of Texas," said Sean Theriault, a political scientist at the University of Texas in Austin. "Is it the Texas that elects people like (Christian conservative Lt. Gov.) Dan Patrick by big margins, or has the future long promised by demographers finally arrived?"

Diaz teamed up with the Chron's Jeremy Wallace to describe the two men's effort as respective appeals to motivating their voters to turn out.

RG Ratcliffe at Texas Monthly did not pick a winner, but thought O'Rourke's neck veins were a little stressed.  (I think he's just not as puffy as Cruz.)

The week would not be complete without Cruz mischaracterizing O'Rourke's statement about the "New Jim Crow", and hilariously having another Tweet backfire on him.

So let me ask you something @tedcruz — is it “Texas” to deliberately misquote your opponent by accusing him of calling police racist when he’s actually referring to the title of a best-selling book by Michelle Alexander? https://t.co/8jpic5D1Ag https://t.co/89wHVZtAuh

— Andrew Feinberg (@AndrewFeinberg) September 22, 2018

Last, Socratic Gadfly wonders why Texans holding a DSA rose are lining up behind Beto.

PDiddie at Brains and Eggs lists the Texas Democrats he'll be voting for in November, as well as the ones he won't.  And in the wake of SD-19's GOP upset by retired game warden Pete Flores of longtime pol Pete Gallego, PDiddie offered some advice to Texas Democrats on how to save their blue wave.  Stephen Young at the Dallas Observer quoted Dan Patrick as saying 'the tide is out'.

Additional post-mortems of last Tuesday's SD-19 special election -- complete with eulogies of the Texas Democratic Party -- arrived via the TO, TM (don't miss the comments here), and the Texas Standard.

Scott Henson at Grits for Breakfast links to an NYT piece that reveals a shocking test result: most crime labs analyzing DNA evidence accuse the wrong people of committing a crime.  And in his statewide roundup of criminal justice news, the Houston Chronicle's Keri Blakinger told the story of Texas inmates who are refused dentures.

The Texas Tribune via Progrexas writes about the $430 billion farm bill, which is nerve-wrackingly close to expiring, leaving Texas farmers in the lurch.

US Rep. Mike Conaway, R-Midland, and other members of the House Committee on Agriculture visit a wool processing fiber mill in San Angelo on July 31, 2017. Photo courtesy Austin Price, Texas Tribune

Congressional leaders are just days away from a deadline to work out a compromise on a massive farm bill or risk a lapse in funding for crucial safety net programs used by thousands of Texas farmers.

Ahead of a Sept. 30 deadline, Congress returns this week with just four legislative days to reconcile differences between the House and Senate legislation, pass the bill through both chambers and send it to the president’s desk before safety net funding dries up.

The bill, which comes with a $430 billion price tag over five years, is particularly important for Texas, which leads the nation in number of farms and ranches, according to the Texas Department of Agriculture. One in seven Texans also works in an agriculture-related job, according to the department.

The farm bill includes a vital crop insurance program for farmers that provides financial protection against crop destruction. The crop insurance program is the second largest program in the bill and made up 8 percent of the last farm bill. The insurance has become an increasingly important lifeline for Texas farmers, many of whom are struggling due to drought in west Texas or flood damage closer to Houston, said Laramie Adams, national legislative director of the Texas Farm Bureau, a group that advocates on behalf of Texas farmers and ranchers.

“They have no safety net, no way of surviving if you don’t have crop insurance in place in order to pick them up and allow them to be able to invest in the next growing season,” said Adams.

Much more at the link, including the politics complicating the matter.

Kennedi W. at Houston Justice describes #ProjectOrange's successful voter registration drive.

Civil rights groups are changing bail practices in Texas one city at a time, writes Michael Barajas at the Texas Observer.

Murray Polner at The Rag Blog wonders if there are any honest and independent observers still available to sort out the truth.

David Collins has a review of Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 11/9".

And Harry Hamid wishes he had another hole in his head where the memory of the presidential candidate he voted for in 2016 resides.

Sunday KavaNO Funnies

Three Senators who served on the Judiciary Committee in 1991 -- and heard the testimony of Dr. Anita Hill during the confirmation hearings for Justice Clarence Thomas -- serve on it today.  Can you name the third without looking?  Hint: he's not a Republican.  Thomas was confirmed 52-48 by the Senate in October of that year with the votes of 10 conservative Democrats.  Two Republicans, Bob Packwood of Oregon (LOL) and Jim Jeffords of Vermont, voted against Thomas.

Kavanaugh was a member of 'T 'n C' at Yale, which means ... (NSFW)

From 1991, and the 'some things never change' department ...

The Texas Democrats I cannot vote for

So Beto/Bob had a very good night last.



He was composed and articulate and cool with the Clash reference and calm with the last retort to Poop Cruz's 'compliment'.  #TrueToForm is tailor-made for a meme or a tee shirt.

The Zodiac Killer was neurotic.  A barely-managed frantic, a slightly concealed flustered, and an undisguised contemptuous, all while throwing every piece of extreme conservative red meat against the wall hoping something would stick.  Reviews were poor for him.

Undeterred by recent polls showing the race in a dead heat, Cruz used the debate to double down on his core campaign strategy: igniting a fire underneath his conservative base, confident that their numbers are enough to win if they turn out in force. In his attempts to present O’Rourke through a kaleidoscope lens of Fox News fears, Cruz twisted and prodded with bad-faith attacks — coming across as a snide, oily weasel to the people who already hate him while pushing all the right buttons for the people he was really talking to.

[...]

O’Rourke, in what became a theme of the debate, shot back. “This is why people don’t like Washington, D.C. You just said something that I did not say and attributed it to me,” he said, ostensibly referring to Cruz’s Jim Crow attacks. “This is your trick of the trade, to confuse and incite based on fear.”

[...]

In response to what he called O’Rourke’s “soliloquy on the civil rights movement,” Cruz said, “One of the reasons I’m a Republican is because civil rights legislation was passed with the overwhelming support of Republicans. And indeed, the Dixiecrats,” Cruz said, turning to face O’Rourke, “were the ones imposing Jim Crow. The Dixiecrats who were beating those protesters were Democrats.” In that, Cruz was shamelessly aping the rhetoric of right-wing provocateur Dinesh D’Souza — whose presidential pardon he aggressively lobbied for. D’Souza makes a living hawking ahistorical screeds, including the notion that Democrats have always been the real racists.

As foul as Cruz is, I still cannot vote for Beto.

And the same still goes for Elizabeth Fletcher.  In her recent ad she's emphasized Democrats and Republicans "need(ing) to work together", without much beyond Harvey relief in the way of specifics.  So I would simply ask: for what purpose, Ms. Fletcher?  Impeaching Trump?  Passing Medicare For All?  A living wage?  Bail reform? 

I have stated multiple reasons why I just can't cast a ballot for O'Rourke and Fletcher, but if you still need another one, it would be the time and effort they have both spent attempting to persuade whatever quantity of disenchanted-with-Trump GOP votes there may be in Texas (and with Culberson in TX-7).  Indeed, if this is their path to victory, it is clear they won't be accountable to me for my most important issue, universal single payer healthcare, or anything else of a progressive/ democratic socialist bent.  Because they'll be keeping one eye on their next run for office.  Which, in Beto's case, might be the White House in 2020.

(I'll take a hard pass on that right now.)

But the two other statewide Democrats who have pursued a similar strategy that don't get my vote are agriculture commissioner candidate  Kim Olson and lieutenant governor challenger Mike Collier.

I wish I could; I certainly made every effort to get to a point where I could.

Olson fails for a handful of reasons: she was Jay Garner's right-hand gal when GW Bush needed someone to oversee Iraqi rebuilding for the 2003 war the Decider-in-Chief had just waged.  From that grew a controversy about the awarding of contracts that ultimately forced Olson out of the military.  The Texas Tribune and the Austin Statesman (link below) have your deep dives.

The Los Angeles Times reported on the allegations against Olson in 2006, and she discusses the episode at length in her memoir, “Iraq and Back.” But until the Austin American-Statesman published a story about the investigation earlier this month, the ignominious end to Olson's military career had not figured in the race for agriculture commissioner.

Olson dares me not to judge her unless I've been to a "frickin' war".  Sorry, Colonel; I do not accept your prerequisite.  That's not how politics works.

Now there's at least two people who are so bowled over by Olson's swagger that they consider this badassery.  That would be Beto O'Rourke and Charles Kuffner.  I'm of the opinion that if Kim Olson is your idea of a badass, you might be a bit of a wuss yourself.

Perhaps you can see my various and recent criticisms starting to coalesce here.  Wars, establishment Democrats, votes to authorize more spending for wars, all while whining "how will we pay for" Medicare for all, or raising the federal minimum wage, etc.  A question that never gets asked every time the Pentagon requests another dozen billion dollars every quarter.

We have to change Democrats' thinking about this sometime, somewhere.  Might as well be in the Texas ag commissioner's race.  A crine ass shame too, because Sid Miller truly blows goats.

You can watch a short faceoff between Olson and Miller here, courtesy TexTrib and Progrexas.

Texas Donkeys have essentially the same problem in 2018 as they did in 2014: a Republican nominated by the Texas Democratic Party.  "At least she isn't Jim Hogan" isn't good enough to get my vote.  Olson hasn't been reticent in the slightest about encouraging crossover votes.  Please ... do share that with your Republican friends and family, as she requests at the very end.

She's going to need all the help like that she can get.

================

Collier, to my POV, has been less offensive about the ask but no less relentless about asking.  And it seems to be working for him: he appears to have almost convinced Big Jolly to switch going back to April.  That's a kind of a big deal.

This past week was Collier's turn with Evan Smith.  The Republican-turned-Democrat acquits himself well for the most part, repeating his ongoing broadsides against the abomination that is Dan Patrick, and property taxes, and public school funding, but the slip I noticed was when he was asked in which chamber of the Lege do bills originate.  He did not know, and brushed it off as unimportant.  That's close to a fatal error in my book.

Leticia van de Putte got 38% in this race four years ago against the Number One Bum Steer in Texas (Monthly).  Can Mike Collier do better than she?  I am anxious to see.

Update: I overlooked mentioning this email from Collier's campaign that arrived immediately after the SD-19 calamity last Tuesday (I've left the bold emphasis but deleted the gold highlights).

As if Mike’s race wasn’t important enough already - it's now the most important race in Texas. Last night, the special election in Senate District 19 saw Democrat Pete Gallego lose to Republican Pete Flores, who had the help of big money from Do-Nothing-Dan.

What that means: The loss scenario in this race just went from terrible to catastrophic for Texans. Currently, our state senate requires a three-fifths majority to introduce any legislation, and now the Republicans will likely have a supermajority (21/10) leaving the Democrats fighting for lower property taxes, teacher pay, and healthcare, completely voiceless.

If we don't elect Mike, everything Republicans put forward will go uncontested with no check against the damage it could do to everyday Texans. Imagine for a second: a Republican supermajority in the Senate, with a vacant Democratic seat to boot, and no Joe Straus to temper the craziness in the House. Dan Patrick would now be unchecked in his control of the Texas Legislature — we’d see a comeback for school vouchers, even higher property taxes and yes, a return of the bathroom bill.

Perry, if we lose this race, there will now be nothing standing in the way of these anti-business, anti-Texan policies – nothing at all.

Well, .@CollierForTexas, it looks like you are now runnng the most important race in the State of Texas.#TxDems

— Gina Hinojosa (@GinaForAustin) September 19, 2018

This is exactly the kind of fear-mongering you'd expect to motivate Republican voters, after all.  And I have found Gilberto Hinojosa's daughter to be nearly as offensive in her relentless Blue Dog shilling as her father.  Surely the people who sent Elliot Naishtat to Austin for many years can find a more suitable progressive replacement for this legacy flack in 2020.

My vote is never going to be coerced like this.

================

I could go on a bit more, but I will end an already-long post with a few provisos.

-- First, I am not opposed to 'Democrats and Republicans working together'.  This post, also from Big Jolly's shop, offered a few opportunities for that.  I cannot tell if there has been any follow-up by Democrats to SD-11 GOP Chair Scott Bowen's suggestions. (Senate District 11, south and southeast Harris County encompassing the area commonly referred to as Clear Lake but also Galveston and Freeport, is represented by Republican Larry Taylor.  I don't know who the chair is but the two SDEC members are Susan Criss and Quentin Wiltz.  I do know that the wrong emissary to send to any meeting would be John Cobarruvias.)

-- High-profile Republicans endorsing Democrats in this cycle is indeed a movement.

-- Again: If you want to vote for these Democrats, like Mrs. Diddie, or a straight Democratic ticket for that matter, go on.  Twenty eighteen is that kind of year.  I won't hold your voting for shithole conservative establishment Dems against you if you won't hold my undervotes against me.  What I will hold against you is your undervoting a Democrat who happens to be to left of you, like Franklin Bynum for Harris County court.  That I will not abide.  And if you do that, you had better find the nads to say so publicly.

You're the MFer squealing #VoteBlueNoMatterWho, not me.

-- If O'Rourke, Fletcher, Olson, Collier, or James Horwitz (Harris County judicial Democrat) should lose their races by one vote, feel free to blame me.  Not the Republicans who did not cross over, or the undervoters who didn't make it to the bottom of the very lengthy Harris County ballot.

If they lose by 50 or a hundred votes -- let's say, up to a thousand -- you might add to your blame game the above plus a few folks who did not show up to vote, for whatever reasons of their own.  Any creed you choose.

If they lose by more than a thousand votes, then add to those above a campaign that did not quite execute its GOTV strategy as well as it could have.

DO NOT BLAME UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE: Green Party voters, Russian hackers.

Because we all want to believe that Democrats are not stupid.

So what can Texas Democrats do to save 2018 before it's too late?

I don't think success is going to depend on more people like me holding their noses and voting for Democrats who are busy chasing disillusioned Republican crossovers.  I expect the black vote will be there for the Donks, more so than it was in 2016.  Not in cumulative, this being a midterm, but in percentage and intensity, partly driven by the castigation -- or remorse -- from sitting out the presidential election two years ago, and partly by circumstances of the past few years: #BlackLivesMatter (from Texans Sandra Bland in 2015 to Botham Jean this month), Colin Kaepernick's protest twisted out of context, efforts to end the practice of cash bail gaining steam because of the deaths it is causing, and similar issues of concern to POC.

And this.

19 sisters running for Judge in Harris County, this is where it starts y’all.... VOTE!!!! pic.twitter.com/8LwyYXLl6x

— SCARFACE (@BrotherMob) September 13, 2018

Find them all here.

So that leaves one large, mostly untapped demographic.  The ones Democrats have been waiting on for several election cycles now.

Note this cartoon was first published in 2010.

-- Take this, from Rafael Medina, the Senior Media Coordinate at the Center for American Progress Action Fund and posted at Latino Rebels, to heart.

The 50^th anniversary of Hispanic Heritage Month kicked off this week. It is a commemorative month during which the United States celebrates the diversity, heritage, and accomplishments of Hispanic and Latinx Americans.

The Hispanic and Latinx community that I know is vibrant and thriving; through our deeply embedded, rich histories and culture, and through a relentless faith in the American Dream, we keep our nation’s legacy as a beacon of opportunity for all who live. We drive the economy with our entrepreneurial talents, enrich the arts and humanities, and have had a lasting impact in defending the nation’s most cherished ideals, leading the way for social and political progress.

While it’s true that the Trump administration presents an exceptionally challenging moment, we are resilient, and our collective voice is powerful. And what better way to celebrate this great truth than to leverage our tremendous potential to influence policy by registering to vote? In the face of constant attacks, we cannot afford to leave our power on the table.

Donald Trump’s presidency is marked by attitudes and policies that disregard our contributions and dehumanize our communities. This was very clear from the day he announced his presidential bid, immediately characterizing Mexicans as criminals and rapists.

While still on the campaign trail, then-candidate Donald Trump repeatedly belittled congressmen, judges, and journalists of Latino descent. And after losing the popular vote, he falsely accused millions of people of voting illegally against him and even created a voter fraud commission that was later disbanded with nothing to show for it because he had no evidence of this.

All the while, Trump’s statements and policies have only become more inflammatory and racist under his benighted presidency.

Just ten days before the President proclaimed Hispanic Heritage Month last year, his administration announced plans to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) initiative, upending the lives and livelihood of more than 800,000 Dreamers. The Trump administration then decided to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for individuals from El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, resulting in the loss of status for 250,000 immigrants that have been living and working in the U.S. lawfully for approximately 20 years and are parents to more than 246,000 U.S.-born children. And although the administration may be hoping people will forget about its decision to take more than 2,600 children away from their parents at the southern border, today more than 400 children remain separated, including children under the age of 5. And in place of separating children, the administration last week issued a proposed rule that it hopes will allow it to incarcerate children with their parents indefinitely.

And we now know that Donald Trump manipulated the budget process to divert nearly $10 million in hurricane preparedness funds so that he could continue his racist abuse against immigrant families. This came only hours after saying the response to Hurricane María “was an incredible, unsung success,” and after it became public that his administration’s FEMA has approved only 75 out of 2,431 requests for funeral assistance from victims of María. Trump has repeatedly demonstrated his contempt for Puerto Ricans by claiming to the American public that María was not a “real catastrophe,” and lobbing rolls of paper towels as if he were shooting baskets, and as if they were sufficient to remedy the lack of real aid for which his administration was directly responsible. Since then, thousands of displaced Puerto Ricans have come to the mainland because of the administration’s criminally neglectful and morally corrupt response to María’s enormous devastation, and nearly 3000 American citizens in Puerto Rico died as a result—a figure that Trump shamefully questioned.

From immigration to Puerto Rico to criminal justice to voting rights, the Trump administration has acted in direct opposition to our shared interests. And while the Trump administration may continue to disregard our livelihood, vilify and dehumanize us, it will never diminish our self-worth. We are bigger and more determined than his callous indifference to our pain and suffering.

It’s time for a change in leadership.

This Hispanic Heritage Month, we will celebrate by reminding each other of all the elected officials who treated us like second-class citizens under Donald Trump’s watch and by making plans to vote only for those who have our best interests in mind.

It is our legacy of perseverance in the face of adversity, of fighting and securing success for our families and communities in the future, that we celebrate this and every Hispanic Heritage Month. And that legacy will live on.

That’s why, this cycle, we are seeing an unprecedented number of Latinos running for office. But this is not enough. If we do not register to vote, we will never be able to hold the Trump administration accountable.

National Voter Registration Day is September 25, and it’s the perfect opportunity to demand leaders who recognize our tremendous contributions to this nation. Our community deserves leaders who are firmly committed to supporting and fighting for policies that open doors for us to realize all our talents and succeed, treat us with respect and dignity, and carry on our legacy to build a brighter future.

Together, we will overcome the constant threats from Donald Trump and his allies.

Pa’lante.

It's true that Harris County's Latin@ turnout almost tripled over 2014 (based on surnames, which is a tenuous proposition; absent better measurements, the best we have), but that does not appear to be enough to crest the blue wave.  Democrats need RGV Latinxs in the worst way, and it's also true that there are unregistered Latinx voters in every corner of the state.  Texas is officially dead last in voter turnout and any path to victory starts with getting more people of every age and color and gender registered to vote.

So here's some unsolicited advice for all you people working hard to get your Democrats elected from a former Democratic precinct chair (in three different southwest Harris County precincts), the 2006 statewide coordinator for the David Van Os for Attorney General campaign, a former election judge on the Harris County Ballot Board, a volunteer on too many campaigns to remember and a financial contributor to even more, but since 2014 a gradually greater disillusioned Democrat, to the point of being a Harris Green Party member and supporter.  Take it for it's worth to you.

-- Note Stace's resentment as a clue and act on it; Latin@s are going to have to be begged to vote for Democrats.  So if you're a candidate, or working for a campaign, or just a precinct chair trying to turn out your neighborhood's vote, and up to the deadline to register to vote in the November election -- October 9, thirty days before Election Day -- start begging.  Statewide candidates and campaigns should take all the money they have and run ads on Spanish language media, beginning if possible with the Beto-Cruz debate this Friday night on Telemundo, TeleXitos, or any of the other the Spanish-language media outlets across the state broadcasting it (courtesy Mike McGuff).  The same goes for Lupe Valdez's debate with Greg Abbott on September 28th.  If all that can be afforded is a few radio spots in the RGV, then do that.

In the Houston media market, Telemundo was the highest-rated television station in the last reporting period among adults from sign-on to sign-off (somewhat on the strength of World Cup coverage) regardless of language spoken.  I have little doubt that the same is true of the local Spanish language broadcaster in every single MSA across the state.

-- Mobilize ground troops to register voters.  This event is a must for every campaign, statewide and local, in Houston.  HCDP has a million things you can attend this weekend, but if you're smart about it you'll go where the mostly non-voters are and not where your friends are going.  There'll be time to chat and brunch in about seven weeks.  Leave it all on the field or cry about it in November.

Get voter registrars in Fiesta stores, the local mercados, Catholic churches, the East End in Houston (and typically other Texas cities as well), the barrios in cities large and small, up and down Texas.  Hook up with another Latinx candidate -- or anybody who speaks Spanish, but a brown face is recommended -- and knock on doors.  NO phone calls, please.  A desire for worn out shoes and calloused knuckles are what's needed.

Once the registration deadline has passed, then it's all hands on deck for GOTV.  For the next 2.5 weeks, the electorate must be expanded.

It's now or never.

Some cold hard reality for Texas Dems

Tough day yesterday, with the Q poll showing the Zodiac Killer ahead of Beto by nine points, and then the stunning-not-so-stunning loss by Pete Gallego in the special election to replace convicted felon Carlos Uresti in west Texas.

SD-19's geographics are a close match to CD-23's, so this portends ominously for Gina Ortiz Jones against Will Hurd in 49 days.  She's the one wearing black on Gallego's left (foreground), at last night's wake victory party concession speech.

Lots of bragging by Team Pachyderm about the win.  It sets up the Texas Senate nicely in 2019 for a two-thirds majority to ram through their usual agenda of large piles of extremist elephant shit.  Texas Dems got outmaneuvered on the special election cycle (that's how Abbott rolls; he'll do it again to TX-6 as soon as Sylvia Garcia wakes up and submits her resignation in a way he feels is acceptable), and then were outspent and outhustled.

.@texasdemocrats statement on their loss of #SD19 starts w/ hard truth. Statewide Rs showed up; @GregAbbott_TX w/ a score of paid staffers, @DanPatrick w/ campaign in-kind donations, @JohnCornyn & @tedcruz w/ support. $$$ & staff frm statewide D candidates just couldn’t compete. pic.twitter.com/yBsgbJDGoo

— Phil Prazan (@PhilPrazan) September 19, 2018

Gallego is a three-time loser and his political career is mercifully over, but hang this loss around the necks of Gilberto Hinojosa and Glen Maxey, who quite obviously didn't see it coming and/or didn't do nearly enough to stop it.  Oh, and maybe Bexar Democrats could stop fighting with each other long enough to mobilize turnout and win an election.  That's probably too much to ask for as well.

As for Beto ...

Quinnipiac polled likelies, which is a better barometer than 'registered', so this nine-point deficit is blacker than the usual dark cloud.  A week ago, however, Joshua Blank and Jim Henson at the Texas Politics Project -- they're the guys at UT that also do the Texas Tribune's polling -- busted Beto's axles with these numbers.

A series of recent articles focused on Republican concerns over Senator Ted Cruz's reelection chances has Democrats beaming, and national reporters falling all over themselves to get in front of the possible defeat of Cruz in deep red Texas. The attraction of the storyline for editors and reporters is obvious enough, and poll numbers showing low single-digit leads for Cruz provide a ready rationale for ever more breathless speculation on Beto O'Rourke's chances of pulling off an upset. But a look at recent election outcomes and some simple back-of-the-envelope math highlight just how unlikely an O'Rourke victory is in Texas.

While "unlikely" doesn't mean impossible – this is where we usually insert something about a "non-zero probabability" – the magnitude of the change in the patterns evident in recent Texas elections would have to be historic. If we consider recent midterm elections since 2010, the average Republican vote total has been 2,798,519 votes, which we can round to 2.8 million for simplicity. The average Democratic vote total in those races has been 1,846,459, which we can round up to 1.9 million (again, for simplicity). This means that Democrats, on average, have to make up approximately 900,000 votes to get in the range of a tie in Texas. What would this take? (The table below also includes presidential results from 2016, just to provide context, though those results are not factored into these averages).

Go look at the table at the link.  The bold emphasis next is mine.

A good starting point is one of the underlying assumption of many assessments of O'Rourke's chances: the potential migration of votes from the expected GOP vote either to O'Rourke or to the Texas army of the non-voting. The most recently released poll, as of this writing, showed 15 percent of likely Republican voters saying that they'll cast a vote for O'Rourke. According to a few different analytic approaches using University of Texas / Texas Tribune polling data of registered voters, as well as Texas Lyceum data of registered and likely voters, the size of the poll of potential Republican cross-over voters is probably closer to 6 percent. This estimate is drawn from current polling, which almost certainly reflects a different underlying population than the likely electorate once general election voting begins, so the size and magnitude of the shift in this data may or may not emerge in actual voting. But assuming just for the sake of this exercise that O'Rourke has or will convince 15 percent of Republican voters to cast a vote for him (which would be quite impressive), we can subtract those votes from the average Republican vote total and add them to the average Democratic vote total, resulting in 420,000 votes shifting to the O'Rourke column. This would cut his likely deficit to 480,000 votes.* While this 15 percent estimate seems high given the context (and divergence of) the polling data, it tests the outer limits for one of the clear concerns of Republicans in Texas and elsewhere: the possibility of either a lack of enthusiasm or outright discontent leading to an increase in Republican non-voting among usually reliable midterm voters.

In addition to discontent with Cruz amongst Republicans, O'Rourke would also have to turn out Democrats at significantly higher rates than normal. So let's assume, again for the sake of argument, that Democratic turnout increases by 20 percent, which would add another 380,000 votes to O'Rourke's total. Even under this optimistic scenario, combined with the outer-bound estimate of Republican defections, this surge in turnout would only result in a decrease in the overall expected gap between O'Rourke and Cruz to 100,000 votes – a little more than 3.5 percent under our rough turnout assumption – still in Cruz's favor.

This simple, back-of-the-envelope calculation using incredibly optimistic expectations (if you're a Democrat) about the electorate shows why, when experts are asked about O'Rourke's chances at toppling Cruz, they are so cautious in feeding the hype. Even under extremely rosy circumstances, O'Rourke needs BOTH a momentous shift in voter sentiment, AND a momentous shift in Democratic turnout: possible, but still not probable.

Given the trend lines revealed last night, some anecdotal evidence like this from RG Ratcliffe at Texas Monthly, and our election in Texas may be over before the voting begins.  (Aside to Frances at Crooks and Liars: No, this is not how Beto will win Texas.  GOP crossovers are not enough.  He needs engorged voter turnout, most of it from Latinxs, and he is probably not going to get it.)

Guess we'll wait for Kuff to lengthily excerpt something tomorrow the Houston Chronicle published this morning on both these topics.  This is all he's good for today on the SD-19 result, though he expressed confidence yesterday morning about the outcome, which looks laughable in hindsight.  In the meantime, Gilbert Garcia for the SAEN breaks down how Flores won.

He's also mocked out the latest NYT poll result for TX-23 -- Hurd 51, Ortiz Jones 43 -- which likewise appears almost ridiculous now in the morning after the SD-19 debacle.  Maybe it's a good thing he has nothing to say yet about the Q poll.

(Lately I'm just embarrassed for that guy and his blog.)

Texas Democrats need to use these two items as a serious wake-up call for November.  Can they get their act together and salvage some wins before the GOP breaks the Blue Wave completely here?

Not looking too hot this morning.

Update: Shortly after this was posted, a Reuters/Ipsos poll was released showing Beto with a two-point lead over Cruz among likely voters.  Somebody has to be an outlier; maybe both.  An 11-point swing between two typically highly-regarded pollsters, taken back-to-back, is patently absurd.  This is the sort of thing that makes me question the validity of polling science altogether.  Look for heavy spin -- translation: fundraising emails in your inbox.  FWIW, Reuters has Greg Abbott leading Lupe Valdez 50-41, matching his smallest lead to date.  So this is either grand news for Team Donkey (only English speakers were polled) or there's some false hope being generated.  I report, you decide.

The Texas Dems I'll be voting for

The National Rifle Association has endorsed the state's top law enforcement official, who because of his felony indictments cannot own any guns himself.  Ken Paxton is the nuttiest of gun nuts anyway, declaring after the shooting at the church in Sutherland Springs that if more parishioners had been packing, fewer of 'em would have been sent to Heaven early.

Ken Paxton -- and 19 other GOP state AGs -- are asking the federal courts to end the pre-existing conditions acceptability requirement for Obamacare.  Ken Paxton's ultimate goal is to kill Obamacare altogether, and he is actually succeeding in doing so piecemeal.

Obamacare is on Paxton's list of ten things he despises (so are debates).  Paxton, with his lazy eye and slow drawl, is a caricature of a Texas Christian conservative gone badder than any cartoon villain: corrupt, venal, stupid, and built to stay that way.

Justin Nelson, his Democratic opponent, is by contrast solid and well-qualified and has done the hard work of getting publicity without a lot to show for it (although what he has earned has been very favorable).  I could pick a couple of nits over the use of 'access' to health care' on his website, maybe his clerking for Justice O'Connor back in the day, but those are minor enough for me to let slide.

We need Paxton removed, and we can't count on the Texas courts to do it for us.

============

State Comptroller Glenn Hegar hasn't written any steamy novels or left state websites unsecured for hackers to run wild and free like his predecessor Susan Combs, but I'm still voting for Joi Chevalier in the statewide race that has gotten the least attention of any this cycle.  This puts me in agreement with Ted at jobsanger, which is a rare thing.

Democratic Land Commissioner challenger Miguel Suazo just secured the endorsement of Jerry Patterson, the former GOP LC who gave up the job four years ago to run in the scrum of the LG primary.  Incumbent George Pee Bush has alienated more conservatives than just Patterson with his screwball Alamo business despite winning the March primary over "Hogleg".  (Chris Elam, mentioned in the TM link, used to blog from Sugar Land under the title 'Safety for Dummies', which he scrubbed off the Web long ago.  A devoted Tom DeLay acolyte back in the day, it seems as if Elam's mentors have all let him down.  Somebody should ask him where his support goes these days, if one can't tell from where he's drawing a paycheck.)

Suazo has made hay with Bush also fumbling Harvey relief, but the young Democrat has an "all of the above" energy strategy which doesn't particularly suit me.  It would be awfully difficult for a Texas land commissioner to stand against the fossil fuel companies and expect to get elected.  He favors wind and solar and renewables, so I'll swallow hard and click the box beside his name.

Roman McAllen is running against incumbent Republican Christi Craddick, daughter of former Texas House Speaker Tom, for Railroad Commissioner.

A governing body for the state's oil and gas interests -- shockingly, fewer 5% of Texans even know that much about it -- where cronyism and corruption is the rule, McAllen stands out for his blunt talk about the truths associated with the Railroad Commission.  He's been endorsed by the Sierra Club and Our Revolution ETX.  Let's see if we can get just one vote out of three on the TXRRC that isn't bought and paid for by O&G.

====================

One more, separate post.

The Weekly Wrangle

September 16 was Mexican Independence Day, according to Millard Fillmore's Bathtub, so the Texas Progressive Alliance hopes all Texans were able to proudly fly their flags yesterday.  Here comes the blog post and lefty news roundup from a busy week passed.

A US Border Patrol supervisor was arrested in Laredo for the murders of four women in what officials are calling "serial killings".

Authorities issue more search warrants as the investigation into the murder of Botham Jean by a Dallas police officer continue.  Experts are disagreeing on the credibility of the officer involved.

The Texas SBOE chooses to remember the Alamo's heroes, but ignore the historical contributions of Helen Keller and Hillary Clinton.

Houston's ABC affiliate KTRK reports the Cajun Navy has headed toward the Carolinas to utilize experience gained during Harvey to help out the victims of Florence.

Southwest Key, the company that wants to house immigrant children in a facility in downtown Houston, has sued the city claiming that the permitting process required to open it has been an "improper political exercise" that has been "motivated by hostility" toward federal immigration law.

And Texas Monthly's Bob Moore has the story about Tornillo's tent city for unaccompanied immigrant children doubling its capacity.

As we barrel toward our first US Senate debate this Friday night, the latest developments in the race between Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke include:

-- Cruz mailing out campaign solicitations marked "Official Travis County Summons".  State legislator Gene Wu says that's a violation of the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act.

-- SocraticGadfly wondering why states' rights wingnuts like Cruz can't talk more about the truly overlooked Ninth Amendment and less about the un-overlooked Tenth Amendment, especially in judicial confirmation hearings.

-- And Sanford Nowlin at the San Antonio Current taking the measure of O'Rourke.

Off the Kuff published interviews with Congressional candidates Steven David (CD-8, incumbent Brady) and Adrienne Bell (CD- 14, incumbent Weber).

David Collins wonders if voters actually care about foreign policy positions when assessing Congressional candidates, and Zachery Taylor asks if oligarchy is creating another wave of fake progressives (and if so, for what purpose).

Grits for Breakfast collates some criminal justice reform implications associated with a few of the fall Texas Senate races.  Texas Public Radio covers the last days before the special election for SD-19 between Bill Flores and Pete Gallego.  And the Texas Tribune reports that Texas Republicans are worried their supermajority in the upper chamber will be lost.

Raise Your Hand Texas reads between the lines of the Texas Education Agency's budget request.

Save Buffalo Bayou thinks the recent 'A' given Galveston Bay's water quality is misleading.

Texas Vox separates energy subsidy myth from fact.

BeyondBones catalogs what the devastating fire at the Museu Nacional in Rio de Janeiro means to the world.

Kevin Curtin at the Austin Chronicle says goodbye to the iconic Threadgill's World Headquarters.

Stace at Dos Centavos wrote about an old friend's biography, which won a major literary award.

And Harry Hamid found a life away from blogging, but doesn't feel like he's through blogging.

Sunday Gale Force Funnies

#VoteBlueNoMatterWho? #NoCanDo

#AnyBlueJustWon'tDo for me.

As DWT posted a few weeks ago, it's almost nostril-pinching time for some.

Beto, as many of you know, is on Colbert tonight.  Panties and money will be thrown.  Update: Keep your clicker close, because Ted Cruz has bought ad time during the show.  What a likeable guy.

As I mentioned last week, he will have enough caysh to win.  Lack of name recognition should be no excuse for his losing, either.  That leaves only one thing: Latin@ turnout.  Several media outlets have already mentioned it as key to Bob's victory, so I'll just point you to Stace, who -- as referenced in Monday's Wrangle -- seems to be using the recent NALEO poll for excusing low turnout well in advance of the election.  Let's hope I'm just misunderstanding him, but ...

... frankly, if Trump and ICE and separating children from their parents and holding kids in cages, and policies like this, and Democrats like Lupe Valdez and Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar and Lina Hidalgo and Adrian Garcia and a shit-ton of others on the ballot aren't enough to motivate turnout, then maybe turnout is impervious to motivation.  Exactly how much fucking worse must it get for La Raza in this country before they do something about it?

If I remember history rightly, black people have been tortured, murdered, lynched, dragged, burned, and hanged just for trying to vote.  And then they were poll-taxed.  And they're still pretty well kept from voting by any means Republicans deem necessary to this day.  Maybe I have a blind spot, but I just don't recall Latinxs having to put up with as much bullshit through the years as that.

If Latin@s (and maybe this should be read as 'Mexicans') are waiting for their engraved invitation to a banquet where all of their wishes, hopes, and dreams will be granted ahead of their citizen participation in selecting our leaders ... then somebody needs to take them aside and explain that politics doesn't work that way.

Power concedes nothing without a demand, said Frederick Douglass.  And the way that looks, hermanos y hermanas, is: first you show up, then you demand.  Your demand correspondingly includes withholding your future support if your prior demands are not met.  Maybe try something different besides doing nothing this year, see what happens.

On the bright side for Beto, my shero Sema is on board.

At start of Houston rally, @BetoORourke gives big shoutout to former primary opponent @_SemaHernandez_ and briefly brings her onstage to cheers. #txsen

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) September 8, 2018

She's made a pragmatic political calculation here, to Gadfly's irritation.  She plans on challenging Cornyn in 2020, and there's simply no way that her harsh criticisms of the Democratic Party establishment -- published as an op-ed in the Chronic in late July-- would be forgiven if she did what I'm doing and went "bah-fungoo" at O'Rourke.

I'm gonna cut her some slack.  Part of this is inherently being DSA; if you're running on their ballot line, you're inside their party.  You are expected to fall in line in November.  She may have simply given in to Beto's most obvious charm: his empathy.  He listens well.

Let's also be clear that Poop Cruz, whoever it is Tweeting for him, his comms team generally, and the Texas GOP at large are the gifts that keep on giving to O'Rourke.  They are doing everything they possibly can to lose this race for the Zodiac Killer.  Beto has also been blessed with the most favorable media coverage ever.  For the life of me I cannot understand how he dances through these continuously blooming meadows of lilies, gilded and not.

And here's the picture of @BetoORourke signing the @NoFossilMoney pledge. His commitment to governing on behalf of people not companies is helping fuel his remarkable campaign https://t.co/SGFnLEWEqH

— Bill McKibben (@billmckibben) September 10, 2018

There's no reason he should get special recognition for this.  He's already sworn off corporate money and PAC money (allegedly), right?  I find plaudits from McKibben here the equivalent of whooping for a 7-year old who successfully completes his first unattended poop, or a 14-year old who has managed to tie both his shoelaces.  It's very typical of the Congressman's national media coverage.  Read all of this, with the excerpt being the last sentence.

If O’Rourke really does have a chance to win this November, then he’s going to have to prove to be the political rock star all those profiles keep making him out to be. 

No Beto for me, but Mrs. Diddie will give him a vote.  Same for Elizabeth Fletcher (why does a corporate attorney go by such a childish, childhood name?), whom I find charisma-impaired on top of her more recent Labor Day hypocrisy.

The right to organize and to advocate are central to our democracy, and our country is stronger when the voices of working Americans are heard. I'm committed to protecting these rights, and working together to put us back on the path to progress.

— Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (@Lizzie4Congress) September 3, 2018

Wasn't exactly her firm's position in 2016.  (Your vehement protests against personal characterization as a janitors' union buster have been duly noted, Lizzie.)

Her vanquished primary opponent, Laura Moser, has been graceful and hard-working in support of Ds of all stripes since March.  Both Sema and Laura are just better Democrats than me. 

While Moser would be more accurately called a Berniecrat and Sema DSA, I personally am more of a hybrid when you consider my affinity for the Greens, or any independent candidate running to the left of the Donks.  I like DSA and their inside strategy, but I'm also more than willing to part company when certain right-leaning Democrats -- Henry Cuellar, anyone?  Bueller?  -- fall too far outside tolerance limits, as they do for me with Beto and Lizzie.  YMMV, and this is not what the vast majority of Texas Democrats are accustomed to doing, as we all know.

I have a few more Dems I won't be voting for, and a list of those that I will, which may surprise some of you reading this far.  I'll try to get that posted before the weekend.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance observes that honesty is no longer a required attribute for Republican judicial nominees, but apparently that simply does not matter to Republican Senators.

Not.  A.  Single.  One.

Here's the blog post and lefty news roundup from last week.

Dallas police officer Amber Guyger, who shot Botham Shem Jean in his apartment -- erroneously thinking she was entering her own -- has finally been arrested on manslaughter charges after a few days' delay, attributed to the Texas Rangers' assumption of the investigation from the DPD.

Texas Standard reports that a federal judge buried the fetal remains law passed by the Lege last year, but the case will be appealed to the country's most conservative appellate court, the Fifth Circuit.  And it's on to the SCOTUS, with Brett Kavanaugh sitting in judgment, should it lose there.  Consider the bill a zombie, resting for awhile before it rises and walks again.

Influence Texas and Texans for Public Justice announced the release of Influence TX OS, an open source app providing campaign finance and voting records of Texas state politicians.  This is a very valuable and insightful tool for those who wish to hold elected officials accountable for their political donations.  For example: why did "good Democrat" Gene Wu take $7,500 from one of the world's greediest people, Alice Walton?  (He has -- so far -- refused to answer me.)

Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke both revved up their Senate campaigns with rallies in Harris County, the state's largest and most purple.

“Whatever you’re doing do, please do more of it,” O’Rourke told supporters packed in to the Houston Stampede Event Center, a 12-mile drive from where Cruz first campaigned Saturday in the area. “Not a single one of us wants to wake up with anything other than a hangover from celebrating a victory on the 7th of November."

Harris County — home to the state's most populous city, Houston — has long been regarded as a battleground in Texas politics, though it swung solidly Democratic in the 2016 presidential election, when Hillary Clinton routed Donald Trump there by 12 points. The county previously delivered much closer margins in statewide elections, including Cruz's 2-point win there over Democratic opponent Paul Sadler in 2012.

Off the Kuff published an interview with Mike Collier, Democratic candidate for Lt. Governor.

Stace at Dos Centavos interprets a recent poll as saying that neither Democrats nor Republicans want the Latin@ vote, which appears to be excusing low 2018 turnout in advance for the critical election demographic.

By contrast, the AAPI (Asian American Pacific Islander) voting bloc is feeling energized by the candidacy of CD-22 Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni in Fort Bend County.

For years, the Texas Democratic Party has bet its future on an imminent, but never-quite-materializing demographic destiny. Eventually, the thinking goes, the rapidly growing Latino population would exercise their political muscle, turning Texas blue. But that hasn’t happened. Meanwhile, Asian Americans are another rapidly growing, low-turnout demographic in the state. As a small, relatively conservative, highly fragmented voting bloc, they’ve attracted far less attention from Democratic operatives. But Asians have undergone a massive political realignment to the left and they could hold the key to Democratic gains in the diversifying purple suburbs of Texas. At least that’s Kulkarni’s bet.

“When I first started, I was told not to bother with the Asian-American vote because they don’t turn out,” Kulkarni told the Observer. “Well, I said, maybe that’s because you’re not reaching out to them.”

Better Texas Blog gives a state budget update.

Pages of Victory quotes the HouChron in asking again: did Harvey makes us all sick?  There are indeed still more questions than answers.

SocraticGadfly observed that Glenn Greenwald is getting close to "Deep State" conspiracy theory talk on the Trump Administration on things like the "anonymous" op-ed.

David Collins takes down the piety of Nike -- not the protest of Colin Kaepernick, just their making money off of it -- in "Das Kaepital", a barbed commentary pointed at end-stage capitalism.

G. Elliott Morris discusses the current odds of a U.S. House flip by the Dems.

Texas Freedom Network points out that the SBOE is getting ready to write -- or rewrite -- history again, in the form of approving public school textbook curricula this week.

Juanita Jean at the Beauty Shop always believed that the Trump inaugural photos had been doctored.

The Great God Pan Is Dead reviews some Soviet avant-garde art.

Texas Monthly's Doyin Oyenyi writes about a (somewhat elusive) Guy Fieri meme that mocks Austin's envy of Houston's food scene.  *Update: Meme now shown in link and below.

And Sarah Martinez at the San Antonio Current has important Whataburger news.