Sanders stuns pollsters, Clinton with upset in Michigan

Nobody saw that coming.

Bernie Sanders pulled off his biggest win of the Democratic presidential race on Tuesday, defeating Hillary Clinton in the Michigan primary on a night which also confirmed strong anti-establishment support for Donald Trump in the battle for the Republican nomination.

In an industrial state hit hard by the decline of manufacturing, the Vermont senator’s consistent opposition to free trade deals appears to have been a decisive factor, but he also showed signs of weakening Clinton’s dominance among African American voters.

The shock victory – 49.9%-48.2% with 99.3% reporting – comes despite Sanders trailing the former secretary of state by an average of 21 points in recent opinion polling.

538.com -- with the most egg on their faces and registering a much bigger loss than Hillary:

Bernie Sanders made folks like me eat a stack of humble pie on Tuesday night. He won the Michigan primary over Hillary Clinton, 50 percent to 48 percent, when not a single poll taken over the last month had Clinton leading by less than 5 percentage points. In fact, many had her lead at 20 percentage points or higher. Sanders’s win in Michigan was one of the greatest upsets in modern political history.

Both the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus and polls-only forecast gave Clinton a greater than 99 percent chance of winning. That’s because polling averages for primaries, while inexact, are usually not 25 percentage points off. ...

The question I am asking myself now is whether this means the polls are off in other Midwest states that are holding open primaries. I’m talking specifically about Illinois and Ohio, both of which vote next Tuesday. The FiveThirtyEight polling average in Illinois gives Clinton a 37 percentage point lead, while the average in Ohio gives her a 20 percentage point lead. If Michigan was just a fluke (which is possible), then tonight will be forgotten soon enough. If, however, pollsters are missing something more fundamental about the electorate, then the Ohio and Illinois primaries could be a lot closer than expected.

The delegate math still favors Clinton.

To be sure, Clinton will emerge from Tuesday’s primaries with the bigger net gain in delegates. Her Mississippi landslide may have been more predictable than Sanders’ nail-biter in Michigan, but it was also more profitable. The latest estimates show that while Sanders will amass 8 to 10 more delegates than Clinton in Michigan, Clinton will scoop up 25 to 28 more delegates than Sanders in Mississippi. And so Clinton’s total delegate lead will only grow once all of Tuesday’s votes are tallied — despite Sanders’ miracle in Michigan. In the end, this is the only measure that matters.

Among the surprises from the Wolverine State is the statistical reveal that Bernie narrowed the gap with the demographic groups that have voted Hillary en masse.

Yet, more tellingly, Sanders also held his own among demographic groups that Clinton dominated in her 2008 battle against Barack Obama — demographic groups that could prove crucial in the contests ahead. He won white women by five points. He won whites without a college degree by 17 points. He won voters who make less than $50,000 a year by five points. He even won union voters (by two points). And he lost the black vote by a much smaller margin than he has in the South.

Wayne County, home to Detroit, was supposed to be her firewall but that theory got Berned, and there are more states like Michigan and fewer states like Mississippi ahead on the primary schedule. He must still begin claiming some Clinton-esque wins.

... Thanks to an 83 percent to 16 percent win in Mississippi, Clinton gained in the overall delegate count on Tuesday and leads Sanders by more than 200 pledged delegates. Her strong performance in Mississippi also put Sanders further behind his FiveThirtyEight delegate targets. That may not be as sexy as the tremendous upset in Michigan, but math is rarely sexy.

Sanders, however, can breathe a deep sigh of relief that all the states in the Deep South have already voted. He can hope that tonight’s Michigan win will help propel him to victory or at least make him more competitive in states with large delegate prizes left like California, Florida, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania. We’ll see if it does.

It might be the start of the political revolution, or it might be just one shining moment.  It could be the start of something yuuge, or it could be a flash in the pan.

On your teevee it's all about Trump. Turn it off.

Trump's ceiling, Cruz's rise, Rubio's last chance

The postulate that Trump's ceiling of support is somewhere between 35 and 40% has been, and continues to be, borne out by the polling and the results.  The latest:

Donald Trump’s facing a wall within his party, with Republicans who don’t currently support him far more apt to prefer Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in a two-way race -- or even to favor a contested convention to block Trump’s nomination. 

Trump continues to lead in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, with 34 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who are registered to vote saying they’d like to see him win the nomination. But he trails both Cruz and Rubio one-on-one. And preferences for Cruz, Rubio and John Kasich have grown as others have left the race, while Trump’s support has essentially remained unchanged for months.

Lots of in-the-knowers question the premise that Trump has a ceiling, or even whether it matters, but let's look at the numbers ... 

Iowa's caucus results were Cruz 27.6%, Trump 24.3 and Rubio 23.1.  Since that time -- just five weeks ago -- Trump finished first in NH with 35.3%, first in SC with 32.4, first in Nevada with 46.1, first in Alabama with 43.4, second in Alaska behind Cruz, 33.5 to 36.4%, first in Arkansas with 32.8, first in Georgia with 38.8 and in Massachusetts with 49.3, first in Tennessee with 38.9, first in Virginia with 34.7, and first in Vermont with 32.7%.

He lost Texas and Oklahoma to Ted Cruz by 26.7 - 43.8% and 28.3 - 34.4%, respectively, and he lost Minnesota to both Rubio and Cruz, ending third with 21.3%, and Puerto Rico by a mile, 13-71 to Rubio.  These last two represent Trump's low-water marks to date.

Last Saturday he lost Kansas and Maine to Cruz by wide margins, 23.3% to 48.2, and 32.6 to 45.9%, but won Louisiana and Kentucky with 41.4 and 35.9%.

Throwing out the high (Massachusetts) and the low (Puerto Rico) and averaging the remaining produces a 33.46 average percentage (even if averaging percentages is a substandard evaluation method, it tells us something).  The only way we'll know what the ceiling is for Trump is when the Republicans boil it down to two.  Delegate counts are a different story, and Trump leads Cruz by a 384-300 margin, with Rubio well back in third holding 150 delegates and Kasich, lapped a couple of times by the field, at 37.

Michigan and Mississippi both poll strongly for Trump, as does Idaho and Hawaii (no polling there) also voting today.  But the numbers are very consistent: 30% to 40% for Trump and the rest divided among the remaining field.  So there will be louder calls for mano y mano with Cruz tonight, and a week and a day from today, unless Rubio can win Florida in some kind of convincing fashion, and he will be coming from well behind to do so.

The GOP debate just ahead of the Florida primary happens Thursday night in Coral Gables, and Florida's devout Cuban-Republican contingent will be as riveted to the action as any.  Rubio will bear the brunt of the attacks from Trump and Cruz in a somewhat altered dynamic.  There may be some snarking at each other in Spanish (I sure hope so).

It's entirely possible that a week from tomorrow, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton are the last three people standing for the presidency.

Last night's town hall, Michigan votes today, and the debate Wednesday

-- The town hall format, with contestants questioned separately by the moderator and selected audience members, demonstrates again its superiority over both candidates' arm-waving and shouting from podiums.  There is no interrupting, hence there are no misused allegations of sexism (satire, yes; uncomfortably close to reality.  Not the virtual reality that dwells in the fevered minds of the SHills at Blu Koolaid Drinkers Revue).

Both candidates showed well.  Bernie stood out simply for his sincere and direct stands that go against the doctrine held by the average Fox viewer.  Hillary was grilled over Libya and her emails, as predicted, but emerged unscathed.  The Twitter responses ranged from the customary unhinged conservatives freaking out over soshulism or Benghazi or abortion -- a topic mentioned for the first time in a Democratic debate or forum -- to Republicans saying both Clinton and Sanders were their second choices after Trump, to the spinners for both blue sides working overtime.  It was one of the more diverse ideological event hashtags I've followed during this cycle.

-- Another stellar performance by him and another adequate performance by her is unlikely to move the needle in Michigan or Mississippi, both of which are casting ballots today.  There will be more calls for Sanders to pack it in when these states get called shortly after the polls close tonight, but with Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio all on deck to vote next Tuesday, no verdict will be rendered on his campaign's fate before then.

But it shouldn't be long after that.

Update: Mark Kleiman is ready to sign the death certificate.

-- Debate night is Wednesday in Miami with Amazon's Washington Post and Univision moderating.  The WaPo has made no secret of its Hillary bias.

The GOP get their own post coming up.

A bounce-back weekend for Bernie

But a last hurrah as well.

Sunday's debate brought a little more clarity to the state of play for the Democratic presidential nomination; our favorite mensch got the best of the exchanges between he and Hillary Clinton last night, and that dovetailed with the news that he had prevailed in the Maine caucuses, after winning two other caucuses -- Kansas and Nebraska -- on Super Saturday (Clinton won Louisiana's primary in a walkoff).  This continues the pattern of Sanders winning mostly Caucasian states that caucus (no pun intended), and Clinton running up large leads in Southern states that vote the usual way.

Sanders' good weekend is just not going to be enough.

While the crowd seemed to be with Bernie, and some punches were landed, he did not deliver the knockout punch many pundits said he needed to turn around his prospects for a Michigan primary win this coming Tuesday. 

RealClearPolitics.com’s most recent report of polling within Michigan shows Clinton leading Sanders by an average of 20%. While Michigan’s 148 delegates will be allocated proportionally, a loss of that magnitude would be devastating for Bernie. 

Enthusiasm may get a candidate votes; the right number of delegates gets a candidate the party nomination.

[...]

... short of a new scandal or the worsening of an already existing scandal, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.

More from Politico, including some unsolicited advice.

With Sanders now having won a total of seven primary or caucus contests to Clinton’s 12 (he lost even liberal Massachusetts, his neighboring state)—he is sailing into ever-more challenging electoral waters ahead. Party operatives have begun gaming out just how and when Bernie should say “when.” He doesn’t want to give up too easily. Nor should he stay on so long that he severely harms Clinton—now more than ever the likely nominee—in the fall. 

In his election night rally in Vermont on Tuesday, Sanders declared that his campaign was, among other things, “about dealing with some unpleasant truths that exist in America today and having the guts to confront those truths.” 

The big unpleasant truth is this: Sanders may have already changed things in this campaign as much as he ever will. By credibly challenging Clinton in the early days of the race, Sanders moved the needle—and Clinton herself—on the issues he cares most about, from trade to Wall Street regulation to expanded access to health care. If history is any judge, there is only so much more that Sanders could expect from a victorious Clinton, or that she would be willing to give him. It seems all but inconceivable that she’d choose him as her running mate ( he is too old, and too unpalatable to too much of the country). She would not offer him the one Cabinet post he might covet (say, Treasury Secretary?) and it’s unlikely he would trade his perch in the Senate for one she might proffer (say Labor or Health and Human Services). 

[...] 

At 74, Sanders knows this is it for him. He’s too old to run for president again, and his small-donor fundraising base makes him immune to the sort of establishment pressures that might induce a more typical candidate to drop out. (On Tuesday morning, his campaign announced he had raised $42 million from 1.4 million contributions, averaging $30, in February alone.) 

“At the end of the day, what does he care if he alienates Hillary Clinton?” asks Anita Dunn, a longtime Democratic strategist who worked on Bill Bradley’s ill-fated challenge to Al Gore in 2000. “He’s got an 80 percent approval rating in Vermont. He’s still going to be a senator, in a closely divided Senate, and if he walks out on the Democratic Caucus, he could cost them control, so he is pretty untouchable. But the real thing to think about is why he is running to begin with—which is his message, his belief that the progressive wing of the party was not going to be represented in the process if he didn’t run, and all that speaks to me of the place he may really want to use his accumulated delegates—that is, the platform.”

Read on there about the Democratic Party's past platform negotiations, the comparisons to Jesse Jackson's quixotic '88 bid, the conciliatory plum of a speaking slot in prime time during the convention, and ... that's it.  A little more unity hoo hah, and then "it's time to GTF on the bandwagon, you dirty hippies".

The same old song and dance every four years from our shitty corporate Democrats.

Speaking only for myself, I'm not falling for the banana-in-the-tailpipe, Kucinich/Jackson/Dean head fake any longer, even when it ultimately comes from Sanders himself.  No matter the hugs and kisses and browbeatings about the Supreme Court that will eventually replace things like this ...

@queenofdorkdom @PDiddie FUCK YOU Everyone, especially Bernie is blaming Hillary for everything her husband did. Guess that part is okay.

— Dakota (@doodlebug0) March 7, 2016

@PDiddie Bernie would be. He has perverse sexual fantasies. Can't imagine being in bed with that fuckhead.

— Dakota (@doodlebug0) March 7, 2016

That's what passes for the Clinton campaign's outreach today.

I'll pass on standing with folks like that.  At any time in the future.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance congratulates all the winners of last week's primary elections as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff explored the pros and cons of universal vote by mail.

Libby Shaw ,contributing to Daily Kos, argues that there are under-the-raar tactics taking place at election polls, at least in Harris County, that discourage voter turnout. The Texas Blues: The More Subtle Aspects of Voter Suppression.

Socratic Gadfly says RIP to Ponzi-scheming fracking grifter Aubrey McClendon and his apparent suicide by vehicle.

In an unrelated Ponzi scheme, the Lewisville Texan Journal reports that the FBI and SEC are investigating a Grapevine real estate investment trust after recent allegations of such.

So is Democratic turnout in primary elections to date up, or is it down? PDiddie at Brains and Eggs is asking for a friend.

This week's Texas primary went as expected for most races, but Texas Leftist was happy to see some history made as Democrat Jenifer Rene Pool became the first transgender candidate to win an election in Texas. With so much news dominated by Trump and Cruz, it's great to have some progress worth celebrating.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is sad to see the tuition at Texas public universities go up. Oligarchs pay low taxes and greedy lenders get more student debt payoffs. Republicans like the rich best.

Stace at Dos Centavos reviews his predicted wins and losses from last Super Tuesday.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston describes the process by which the people standing behind the candidate at political rallies are chosen.

Neil at All People Have Value visited the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

======================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Texans for Public Justice is keeping an eye on the TxPUC's $17-billion takeover of Oncor Electric, and how it benefits one of Greg Abbott's largest campaign contributors.

Tar Sands Blockade checks in after a hiatus with the recent inspection reports from KXL's southern leg revealing the falseness of TransCanada's claims about "the safest pipeline ever built".

Ashton Woods at Strength in Numbers tells the inconvenient truth about early voting.

The TSTA Blog reminds us that elections especially have consequences for education.

The Lunch Tray interviews Sen. Debbie Stabenow on child nutrition.

BOR pens a letter of greeting to the new Travis County GOP chair. And Newsdesk digs a few of the ads he's placed in the Austin Chronicle from their archives.

Grits for Breakfast laments the results of the Republican primaries for the Court of Criminal Appeals.

Better Texas Blog explains the Texas coverage gap.

The Makeshift Academic assures us there will not be a contested convention.

Finally, the TPA maintains neutrality in the breakfast taco wars.

Last night's results, tonight's debate

Vox has the most straightforward report on last night's returns: Trump wins Kentucky and Louisiana, Cruz wins Maine and Kansas.  Sanders wins Nebraska and Kansas, Clinton wins Louisiana.  Rubio and Kasich falter everywhere, and Trump calls on Rubio to drop out.

“Marco had a very, very bad night. I would call for him to drop out,” Trump said at an event in West Palm Beach, Florida. 

He went on: “I would love to be able to take on Ted one on one. That would be so much fun, because Ted can't win New York, he can't win New Jersey, he can't win Pennsylvania, he can't win California. I want Ted one on one, OK?"

Rubio is closing on Trump in Florida, which votes on March 15, so that's not going to happen unless he loses to Drumpf in his home state (and then Rubio will quit the next day).  There will be one more GOP debate between now and then, on March 10 in Miami.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will debate this evening in Flint, MI and appear at a town hall forum tomorrow night hosted by Fox.  Expect the former secretary of state to be asked questions about Libya and about her e-mails.  Michigan (and Mississippi) vote on Tuesday, March 8 and Clinton still has a big lead in the polls.  On Thursday Wednesday March 9, she and Bernie will debate again, also in Miami.

Next week's events -- tonight through next Thursday evening -- will culminate what has been a furious month in the two leagues' championship semifinals.  In nine days, we'll know whether we have a Clinton-Trump fall classic, or something else.

In other developments ... Godwin's Law no longer applies.

Donald Trump makes members of his Orlando crowd raise their right hands and swear to vote in the primary. pic.twitter.com/EVenRilJrV

— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) March 5, 2016

Trump supporters have also been read quotes from Adolph Hitler, and thought they were Trump's words.  We've crossed the Rubicon, y'all.

More Democratic voters seem to be looking for the exits.  Hillarians still seem confused as to why, and they're lashing out again at Sandernistas.  The fault lines are cracking further open, even as some former Democrats move over to Trump.

For these reasons, it’s clear that progressives should be wary of arguments that recessions or financial crises lead to opportunities for progressive policymaking. Rather, they foster exactly the sort of divisiveness that strengthens right-wing movements, at least for whites. For all the talk of “the working class” supporting Trump, few pundits have noted that the working class is increasingly diverse. The idea that economic peril alone creates Trump support is belied by the fact that working-class people of color aren’t flocking to Trump. The reason so many liberal and moderate whites are flocking toward Trump is simple: racism.

"Working class", indeed, is not a racial demographic.  It is in fact exactly what socialism in historical context is all about.  But that won't stop Clinton's people from calling Sanders' folks racist.

Sunday Funnies

Is Democratic turnout up or down?

Charles Kuffner has the numbers that indicate local turnout is just fine in historical context, even if the 2016 Blue Team scoreboard is about half the Republicans'.  In the national analysis, a few poli-sci profs have been quoted in recent days as saying there's nothing for Dems to worry about.  Two links for your deeper dive, one from NPR and one from AMERICAblog, with the abridged version being "competitive primaries increase participation and uncompetitive ones don't'.  One pull-quote:

These circumstances tell us a lot about why turnout is what it is in the parties’ respective primaries, but they tell us very, very little about what voter turnout will look like in a Trump/Clinton general election. A more telling predictor is the fact that the general election is likely to be polarized to epic proportions, which on balance has been shown to increase turnout, among other forms of political participation. The causal story for this jives with everything we know about rational political behavior: When voters perceive a greater difference between two candidates, there are greater benefits and costs associated with the outcome of the election. This increases the incentive to cast a ballot for one candidate or the other.

That's all reasonable enough.  I still contend that a universe of Americans where about half the population is not registered to vote, and the other half don't show up at the polls on a regular basis isn't very healthy for democracy, but none of the system's players really care about that or intend to do anything about it.

The duopoly and its enablers in the corporate media would rather see everyone quarreling over the personalities involved; not so much the actual policies.  That is, until they tire of that.

Markos “Kos” Moulitsas, founder of the Daily Kos, a popular liberal web site, wrote a blogpost on Friday asking the site’s community of writers, readers and commenters to begin moderating their criticism of Clinton starting on March 15, in the likely event that Clinton solidifies her hold on the nomination with additional primary wins. 

If Sanders does not turn the tide, Moulitsas wrote, “then on March 15 this site officially transitions to General Election footing. That means, we will focus our attention not just on Donald Trump or his rivals, but also on the Senate, the House, and state-level races.” 

Markos tipped this shot across the bow earlier in the week when he called people who suggested that Hillary was winning primaries in states she would lose in the general election "dicks".  Kos has, throughout his rise to (alleged) Democratic pre-eminence, often arbitrated disputes, brokered agreements, and made official pronouncements and declarations of this type.

Moulitsas went on to lay out specific guidelines for talking about Clinton if she becomes the nominee. 

He distinguishes, for example, between “constructive criticism” of Clinton from a progressive perspective, and using “right-wing tropes” to attack her. He even prohibits liberal-themed name calling, like saying “she’s a sell-out corporatist whore oligarch.” 

Writers and commenters who violate the rules will make themselves eligible to be banned from the site.

Online Democrats, for those unfamiliar, are significantly more Caucasian, older, and progressive -- not the Clinton definition, the actual one -- than Democratic primary voters (in others words, Berners).  So this "get on the bandwagon or GTFO" deadline is being met with considerable derision.  I spend more time at the other place where Democrats hang out online, Depleted Uranium, and I can testify that there's been a serious cleaving of the Sanders camp from the Clintonites.

The powers that be at DK and DU (they can read the ominous Clinton GE polling, too) are trying to stitch up the wounds that the primary battle has blasted open before they face wholesale desertion among the partisan, straight-ticket-voting ranks.  If you don't frequent either of those two websites, you've surely seen the same dynamic play itself out on Facebook and Twitter.  It's also rational to start enforcing this command now because, left to fester, the intramural snipe fest will continue to endanger Clinton's inevitable march to the White House.

If this sounds like sheepdogging, it's more like herding cats.  Still, the fence-mending needs to start happening or else the low turnout (yes, it is) will indeed be exacerbated by the lingering resentment of the Sandernistas, and they very well might defect to the Greens ... or return to electoral apathy.

We'll have to watch this development and see if the cuts are too deep or if some scabs grow over them in time for November.  Almost nine months; you can make a baby in that time, from "Netflix and chill" all the way to DOB.

No bets taken on whether it will be a boy or a girl until later this summer.

Update: Kuff also posts and links to the Texas Observer's article that I interpret as another portent of low Democratic turnout in the fall.

Wheels come flying off for GOP in Detroit

From a frat house food fight to a porno shoot in just one week.  It's really not that much devolution if you take it in context.

Polls. Head to head. Flexibility. Hands. Strong core. Little Marco. This is all just a very bad porno. #GOPDebate

— Liz del Carmen (@LizMartinezG) March 4, 2016

See?  Size does matter in context.  But offensive and defensive penile length comparisons weren't -- for those watching closely -- the most gross thing we saw last night.

Also proof that Ted Cruz is made of polystyrene foam https://t.co/mNb4S5MD2W

— Ben (@rebenjamint) March 4, 2016

I don't think it was spittle; it looked firmer and larger than that.  It certainly wasn't a booger.  It could have been a piece of breath mint or even a chip of tooth.  Whatever it was, it eventually went back to where it came from.

I can never unsee this pic.twitter.com/jx0uApPsNM

— Sarah Parnass (@WordsOfSarah) March 4, 2016

Closer views, more spot analysis, and Zapruder-film-like GIFs at many links.

What little policy was discussed was completely overwhelmed by the insults.  I thought it was much, much worse than last week's takeoff on the Three Stooges.

The Three Stoopids
My morning project, in honor of last Thursday night's absurdities...
Posted by Carol Rosenthal on Friday, February 26, 2016

But truth to tell: all of these Republican debates have left me both highly entertained and completely exhausted.  Some people think Herr Drumpf has been dinged by the Cuban double-team, or by his own too-small hand.  I thought that was the case four months ago, but his endurance has proven me wrong.  The three slowly-receding challengers are falling in line, and it won't be long before their armies do the same.  Since The Donald won't #ReleaseTheTranscripts of the conversations with the New York Times regarding what he really thinks about immigration, he's still on the rails to victory.

The topic of climate change never came up, and the quality of Flint's water was only mentioned briefly enough for Rubio to defend Gov. Rick Snyder.  There was some foreign policy discussed, but it also had the air of a George Carlin schtick about missiles and bombs and penis size.

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton debate on Sunday and Michiganders vote on Tuesday.  Recent polling reveals Trump and Clinton with solid leads.

The dying throes of the GOP establishment

When all else fails, send in ... Mitt Romney.

Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will deliver a scorching indictment of Donald Trump on Thursday, calling the candidate a “phony” and a “fraud” who’d threaten America’s future. 

Romney is due to speak Thursday in Utah at the Hinckley Institute of Politics Forum on the state of the 2016 presidential race. Already a vocal critic of Trump, excerpts released ahead of the speech show Romney will go a step further in his attacks on the Republican frontrunner.

Gravitas.  I have great confidence that Trumpers and Trumpettes alike will respond favorably to the slings and arrows being slung and shot by the Man of 47% of The People.

Okay, moneymen: now it's your turn.

Wall Street is getting ready to go nuclear on Donald Trump. 

Terrified that the reality TV star could run away with the Republican nomination and bring his brand of anti-immigrant, protectionist populism to the White House, some top financiers are writing big checks to fund an effort to deny Trump a majority of delegates to the GOP convention. 

The effort is centered on the recently formed Our Principles PAC, the latest big-money group airing anti-Trump ads, which is run by GOP strategist Katie Packer, deputy campaign manager for Mitt Romney in 2012. 

The group, initially funded by $3 million from Marlene Ricketts, wife of billionaire T.D. Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, wants to saturate the expensive Florida airwaves ahead of the state’s March 15 primary with hopes of denying Trump a victory that could crush the hopes of home state Sen. Marco Rubio. 

A conference call on Tuesday to solicit donors for the group included Paul Singer, billionaire founder of hedge fund Elliott Management; Hewlett Packard President and CEO Meg Whitman; and Chicago Cubs co-owner Todd Ricketts, one of Joe and Marlene Ricketts’ three sons. Wealthy Illinois businessman Richard Uihlein is also expected to help fund the effort. Jim Francis, a big GOP donor and bundler from Texas, was also on the phone call on Tuesday.

Just remember their names.  They are the poster children for a post-Citizens United world gone horribly wrong (in their opinion).  Whoever thought buying politicians would be so difficult?

You just can't hire good help.

This person said Singer, who is worth close to $2 billion, is fully dedicated to making sure the group has all the funds it needs to inundate the airwaves in Florida and other states viewed as not entirely friendly to Trump, a group that includes Illinois, Missouri, Arizona, Wisconsin and other states in the Northeast and West. Ohio could join the list if Trump moves ahead of the state’s governor, John Kasich, in the polls. 

“The money is not going to be a problem. We will raise what we need to do what we need to do,” the person close to the new anti-Trump PAC said. “Yes, there are people who are skeptical, but there are just as many ready to write big checks. The question is only whether Trump truly is really Teflon.” 

The theory, this person said, is that voters are still largely unaware of the full case against Trump. “We have not seen how he holds up to real sustained attacks over the KKK and David Duke stuff, over Trump University, over Trump Mortgage. People don’t really know about that stuff. We are about to find out what happens when they find out about it.”

Good luck ... I guess.  It's not personal; it's strictly business.

The pitch to Wall Street titans and other CEOs is that a President Trump would be disastrous for markets and the economy. Many economists say that if the U.S. were to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants in a single year, the immediate hit to gross domestic product would lead to a depression. And slapping massive tariffs on goods from Mexico and China could dramatically increase prices for U.S. consumers and create destabilizing trade wars. “The most important thing about Trump is, he is completely unpredictable and volatile, and the one thing business needs is predictability,” Packer said. 

But prosecuting that case will take tens of millions of dollars spread across multiple states. 

And many Wall Street donors are already burned out after pumping over $100 million to Jeb Bush and his Right to Rise super PAC with nothing to show for it. Wall Street’s support is also splintered among candidates at the moment. Singer is backing Rubio. Financiers Stanley Druckenmiller and Ken Langone are backing Kasich. And many senior executives say trying to stop Trump now is a foolish crusade that will wind up burning cash with nothing to show for it.

Buyer's remorse on Jeb!  Who would have ever believed?

The one thing most of Wall Street agrees on at this point is that Trump’s grasp of economic policy is weak at best. And should he manage to defeat likely Democratic nominee Clinton in the fall, already turbulent markets could go completely haywire.
“[Trump] has a kindergarten view of economics. The man says China is manipulating currency. China is in the biggest currency run in history, they’re losing $100 billion a month,” Druckenmiller said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday morning. “He doesn’t know what he is talking about. The stuff that comes out his mouth just astonishes me.” 

Other Wall Street analysts say the biggest risk from Trump is that no one really knows what his core beliefs really are. And it is not clear what kind of people he might appoint to critical jobs in his administration. Trump thus far has floated only billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn as a possible economic adviser in his administration.

Someone buy these suits a copy of Idiocracy, for crine out loud.

It's not going to work, but it will be most amusing to watch them try.  Here is your buried lede:

That leaves many Wall Street Republicans with the same conundrum as naional party leaders: Figure out a way to make peace with Trump, pray for an independent bid by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg or quietly hope Clinton wins the general election in November. 

Clinton has many supporters on Wall Street — something that has complicated her primary campaign against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders — and plenty of Republicans who don’t like her would still prefer her to Trump. “I could never support Hillary,” the Wall Street executive who raised money for Bush said. “But plenty of my friends will just hold their nose and vote for her.”

Ahahahahaha.  And people say that Democrats and Republicans aren't alike.

D for Drumpf Day, D for Debate Night in Detroit

Thanks to John Oliver for the original German.  And mad props to Dr. Ben Carson, who finally woke up and smelled the coffee.  It must have been something that God Ted Cruz put on his heart.

The Republican presidential candidates come to Detroit to debate Thursday night at the Fox Theatre with businessman Donald Trump maintaining a 10-point lead on his closest competitors in Michigan's March 8 primary in a new poll commissioned by the Free Press and other media outlets.

Trump is at 29%, Cruz 19%, Rubio 18%, Kasich at 8 and Carson at 7.  18% of Wolverine State GOPers are still undecided.  That allows for a lot of assignment, and reassignment, of loyalties.

The debate will turn the political spotlight squarely on Michigan, which with its 59 delegates to award, is the biggest prize among states voting March 8. Others include Hawaii, Idaho and Mississippi. Four other states, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine, have nominating contests in the meantime, on Saturday.

I wonder if the topic of the water in Flint will come up.

In many ways, Detroit represents the state's biggest comeback while Flint reflects its largest setback. 

Expect GOP candidates to credit Republican Gov. Rick Snyder with Detroit's successes while the Democrats will continue to criticize him for his handling of the Flint water crisis. 

"I think Detroit exemplifies the best of what our state has to offer at every level," said Michigan Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel.

Most of the carping I've seen from conservatives about Detroit has been about how horrible it is and how Democrats were to blame for it, so this is a refreshing change of pace at the very least.  It is also disaster capitalism at its very finest.  Leave it to the spin doctors to demonstrate the contrast.

Karl Rove, senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to former President George W. Bush, said that while Detroit may not be a huge part of the GOP debate, it showcases Republican success. 

"I'm not sure it will be a major point, but I think it could be a point," Rove said. "There will also be probably the opportunity to point out that it's also a sign of a Democratic failure that was rescued by Republicans, because Detroit has had a Democrat mayor and a Democrat council and a Democrat city government for literally decades." 

Rove and Jim Messina, former campaign manager to President Barack Obama, are slated to speak at Michigan Political Leadership Program events early next month. 

Messina said it wouldn't work for Republicans to claim Detroit as a victory. They opposed things like the auto bailout and the Affordable Care Act — actions from President Barack Obama that helped the city. In other words, they have a deeper problem. 

"They opposed everything that worked in Detroit," Messina said.

Much more at that link about Michigan, Detroit, and Flint, where the Dems will debate Sunday.  Fox is moderating tonight's affair; you remember what happened the last time.

In the first Fox News debate, he seethed at her. Before the second debate began, he walked. 

But on Thursday night, Donald J. Trump and Megyn Kelly will be back on stage together for the 11th Republican presidential debate, and Fox’s third of the primary season. 

As the front-runner for the nomination and coming off a string of Super Tuesday wins, Mr. Trump will be at center stage, fending off attacks from his remaining rivals and questions from what could be fairly described as his least favorite moderating team.

Don't expect anybody to be on their best behavior (as usual).

Texas results only slightly surprising

This is the kind of scrum I avoided last Thursday evening, and not just because Ted Cruz is at the epicenter.

We won't go long or big here, as Charles Kuffner has posted the best of this work and you have the AP helping the Chronicle with the numbers.

-- Cruz emerged as the only option to Trumpf for the GOP nomination.  His big win here and in Oklahoma leaves him as the last man standing against a perceived November apocalypse, and the Pachyderms are besides themselves with anguish about it.

In the words of Billy Joel: go on, cry in your coffee but don't come bitchin' to me.

-- Hillary Clinton won big in Texas and everywhere else she expected to, with Massachusetts qualifying as a minor upset for her.  Bernie Sanders won enough states -- Colorado, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and his front-door Vermont -- to justifying staying in the race a while longer.  There's a Democratic debate this Sunday evening in Flint, Michigan (and the GOPers face off tomorrow night; it's a homecoming for Dr. Ben Carson).  Michigan votes on Tuesday March 8, a week from yesterday.  If Sanders can win the Wolverine State, he has justification to fight on to Super Tuesday II on March 15.  Black voters hold his fate.

In review of some of the contested races around the state and county...

-- The Texas Railroad Commission candidates who qualified for their primary runoff elections on May 24th are good ol' Grady Yarbrough (D), Cody Garrett (D), Wayne Christian (R), and Gary Gates (R).  Lon Burnham, the most qualified and most progressive, finished third in a weak field.  Kuff thinks it's all about the money he didn't raise, but IMO Burnham shouldn't have aligned himself with Wendy Davis and Bill White.  Texas Democratic voters always go for the easiest -- and least qualified -- name in this race for some ignorant reason.

Your best option in November is Martina Salinas.

-- There will be a statehouse runoff in HD-139 (incumbent Sylvester Turner is now mayor of Houston) and perceived best candidate Randy Bates missed it.  He'll watch Kimberly Willis and former city council member Jarvis Johnson go at it at the end of May.  Convicted ambulance chaser Rep. Ron Reynolds was returned to Austin will have to face Angelique Bartholomew in May, with Steve Brown well behind, in the night's SMDH result.

Speaker Joe Straus survived his primary and his right-hand man (not right enough for Midland oilman Tim Dunn, Empower Texas, and the Anybody but Straus Caucus, but that's a digression) Byron Cook did likewise.  We can count these as wins for the good guys, folks.  In bad news for the speaker, Rep. Debbie "Public Education is the Pit of Hell" Riddle was upset in her primary.  Her successor is probably worse, however, especially since she called Riddle part of the 'liberal establishment'.

Gilberto Hinojosa's daughter won the Democratic primary to succeed the retiring Elliot Naishtat, the most liberal Texas House representative after Burnham was defeated a couple of years ago.  This is probably the worst thing that Austin Democrats could have done, choosing nepotism over good governance.  If Noah Horwitz supports them -- he's been a lackey for the Hinojosas for some time now -- you can bet she's a lousy Clinton-wing Democrat.  Nothing personifies the creeping conservative failings of the Texas Democratic Party more than this race.

San Antonio Dems also re-elected the most conservative option in their state Senate tilt.  See you down the round, TMF.

-- Ed Gonzalez will run off with Jerome Moore for Harris County sheriff.  Kim Ogg vanquished Morris Overstreet and Lloyd Oliver in the Harris County DA's contest without a runoff, and Ann Harris Bennett swamped Brandon Dudley for tax assessor/collector/voter registrar in a poor showing for challengers in those last two races.  The black turnout dynamic that propelled Hillary Clinton's big wins in Texas, throughout the South, and well down the ballot here was nowhere to be seen in the DA's race.  Ogg had a superior ground game while Overstreet apparently relied on George Soros' mailers.  Money ain't everything, y'all.

Likewise, Adrian Garcia's bad loss and Gonzalez's failing to clear a runoff signal lame turnout for Harris County Latin@s.  Only a Spanish surname paired with Clinton's -- be it Castro or Perez or some other -- saves downballot Texas Dems in November.

-- Harris County judicial races have a few runoffs.  Just a couple I'll mention today: craptastic Judge Elaine Palmer got pushed into a showdown with Joann Storey in the 215th District Court race.  And Democrat-turned-Republican Nile Copeland didn't come close in his bid for the 178th, finishing third with less than 19% of the vote.

Somebody picked the wrong year to start sniffing glue.

Super Tuesday Toons and updates

"Turnout sharply up for Republicans in Harris County; down for Democrats"

After Juan Williams Criticizes Trump’s KKK Comments, Fox Hosts Freak Out

“I don’t think you can excuse this kind of behavior where you just conveniently close your eyes,” Williams, who is African American, said. “In this moment, right before the SEC primary, he finds it convenient not to disavow.” 

“It has particular power because so much of the anger that Donald Trump is talking about giving voice to is really anger in sort of a white populist movement,” Williams continued. 

Before he even finished speaking, Williams was upbraided by his four white co-hosts.
“He disavowed him on Twitter!” Eric Bolling protested. 

“Juan, you are not paying attention to the facts,” Kimberly Guilfoyle said. 

The longest lecture came from Melissa Frances, who blamed the media for badgering Trump. “Now he’s been badgered repeatedly on the same front,” she said. “At the beginning of that interview we saw he said ‘I don’t support David Duke. No, no, no.’ And they kept asking him the question until they said something that can kind of be used.”

"Marco Rubio can still beat Trump, no matter what happens on Super Tuesday"

No, I don't believe so.  Just a feeling.

-- This Dump Hillary anti-establishment uprising is too little, too late.

-- Though there remain hidden time-bomblets in her email affair.

The State Department said that although there were no additional "top secret" upgrades in (yesterday)'s release, two emails had to be withheld. One was an exchange with President Obama, which is sealed until a later date under rules governing presidential records, and the other was an unclassified message that was withheld at the request of a law enforcement agency. The State Department would not comment further on the content of that message. 

-- Still... can she deal Sanders the coup d'grace today?  I think he staggers on another week at least; he raised over $40 million this month from his small donor base, six of it yesterday.

-- Sanders supporters are already discussing openly on Democratic fora (it used to be verboten and grounds for banishment at the one linked) their intentions of going Green in November.

-- Here are the best video snippets of yesterday's choke-slam of a Time photographer by (allegedly) a Secret Service agent at a Trump rally.

-- The latest Clinton VP chatter has Labor Secretary Tom Perez as a legitimate candidate.

More after the polls close... as soon as #FireStanStanart gets the EV up.

A few things to watch for on Election Day

-- Which Democrat gets to take on Harris County Republican DA Devon Anderson in November: Lloyd "homosexuals and lesbians have hijacked the Democratic Party" Oliver, Kim Ogg, or Morris "George Soros' money" Overstreet?

-- Will it be Brandon Dudley for Harris County tax assessor/collector/voter registrar in the Democratic primary ... or Ann Harris Bennett?

-- Can Adrian Garcia pull off the upset in CD-29 against Gene Green?  If he can't, is it a walk or a close shave for the longtime incumbent?  If it's narrow, does Garcia (or some other Latin@) start licking their chops for 2018?

-- Are either Kevin Brady or Louie Gohmert seriously in danger of getting primaried out?

-- Which two of these four -- Randy Bates, Jerry Ford Jr., Jarvis Johnson, Kimberly Willis -- is moving to an April runoff to replace Sylvester Turner in the Texas House?  Is the disgraced Rep. Ron Reynolds going to be bumped off by Steve Brown or Angelique Bartholomew or Chris Henderson?  Will there be a runoff (probably)?  Who's going to make it?

-- Do San Antonio Democrats give the fighting progressive, Trey Martinez Fischer, or the Republican-leaning Democrat, Jose' Menendez, a full term in the Texas Senate?  Chris Hooks says the party needs both.  More on Texas legislative races across the state from the TexTrib.

-- My selections were offered at the start of early voting and can be found here.

-- With fourteen states, one territory, and Democrats Abroad caucusing or holding their presidential primaries tomorrow... is it curtains for Bernie Sanders, or does he fight on?

How will the GOP establishment feel about the election returns tomorrow night?

-- Will Ted Cruz win big enough in Texas to slow Trump's roll?  What's the over-under on his margin of victory?  Five points?  Six points?  Ten points?  That will be the spin.

Quoting myself, again ...

The bantamweight Rubio and the middleweight Cruz did an effective job of pummeling the Oompa Loompa-colored pinata hanging between them. Alternately screwing his face into a tight grimace and unleashing his regularly-scheduled torrent of insults, with a reeling Wolf Blitzer having lost control of the affair in the early rounds, Trump landed no counter-punches to speak of. 

But will it matter once we see the returns roll in Tuesday night?

Great minds ...

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is ready to rumble for November as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff examines Ken Paxton's latest appeal of his fraud charges.

Nonsequiteuse saw everyone else getting in on the open letter game, and figured hey, I can write an open letter, too!

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants to know what McAllen has to fear from their auditor?

Socratic Gadfly, using someone else's opinion piece, explained why this year -- as in previous elections this century -- he won't be "enabling" the Democratic Party in the presidential race.

The GOP debate in Houston made room for a lowly progressive blogger, and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs was a first-hand witness to the culinary carnage.

Bay Area Houston and Texas Leftist also had news and views of the Republican debate at the U of H ahead of the event.

jobsanger graphs low Democratic voter turnout ... and blames it on Bernie Sanders.

Dos Centavos wonders if Texas Latinos are splitting between Hillary and Bernie.

Egberto Willies has the video of Ted Cruz accusing Donald Trump of mafia connections.

The Lewisville Texan Journal reports that the gas lease auction for Lake Lewisville may not be legal.

Neil at All People Have Value said that kindness, patience and empathy are forms of resistance in this society. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

================================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Russ Tidwell figures that the presidential election and the 2021 redistricting effort will put an end to gridlock one way or another, Juanita Jean looks to the last contentious presidential primary for context on this year's, and Dan Solomon finds another example of Republican politicians getting slapped for using a song without permission for campaign purposes.

Trailblazers takes note of the single political group funded by one donor that has poured over a million dollars into Texas House races to oppose Speaker Joe Straus. And Texas Vox sees rideshare competitors Uber and Lyft throwing lots of money into Austin political contests.

Chris Hooks at the Texas Observer reviews the state Senate race in San Antonio between Trey Martinez Fischer and Jose' Menendez.

Grits for Breakfast details the data on arrests in Texas: most are for pot, and most of the charges get dismissed.

CultureMap Houston lists the hassle-free ways to get to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo.

Lone Star Q is following the DISD sports transgender ban, which is being both lied about and ignored by officials there.

Better Texas Blog adds up the tax revenues that undocumented immigrants provide.

BOR points out that the cost of implementing campus carry are falling on students and their families.

The Texas Election Law Blog calls the Court of Criminal Appeals "soft on crime" for letting Rick Perry off the hook.

The Lunch Tray dissects the socioeconomics of picky eating.

Pages of Victory says, "Don't force it; get a bigger hammer".

The Alliance encourages voters to support Jessica Farrar in HD-148, especially in light of her opponent’s intentionally deceptive and hateful, anti-gay mailers.

I hate to say I told you so, but ...

... I told you so, last summer, before the Independence Day holiday and a couple of weeks before anybody had heard the words "Black Lives Matter".

So while neither her convincing victory nor the associated demographic splits surprise me, what has been demonstrated in South Carolina (and will likely be in Texas next Tuesday evening, and several other southern states) is that Democratic voters have made up their minds, and did so long ago.  Sanders' core message (some would incorrectly say his single issue) was even transferred onto Clinton in the Palmetto State.

Large crowds at rallies and marches are, alas, not the same as voting.

Clinton supporters on social media have toned down the gloating to some degree, but my humble O is that reconciliation between the winner and the loser's campaigns isn't going to happen to the extent that Team Hillary may be hoping.  Then again, maybe they're not hoping that at all.

When (a Sanders volunteer in SC) finally finds someone willing to talk to her about the presidential race, it's an elderly man named Joel. "I'll be honest with you, I already made my decision," he said. "I voted for Kasich last week, because I'm so anti-Trump." (South Carolina has an open primary system, meaning that voters can choose which of the two party's primaries to vote in.) 

A Democrat, Joel said that he has a "lot in common" with Sanders, and that as a younger man his political views were further to the left. He told (her) that he likes Clinton's foreign policy experience, but there's a "trust factor." "I agree!" (the Sanders vol) explained. 

After we bid farewell to Joel and get back into the Prius, I asked (her) if she'll support Clinton if she's the Democratic nominee. "Hell no," she said. "Even if Clinton is running against Trump?" I pressed. "No!" she repeats. "I'll vote for Jill Stein!"

Clinton is already bleeding progressive support, and further antagonism of that bloc by her network is not going to cauterize the wounds.  Neither will using a "SCOTUS" cudgel to beat them onto the bandwagon.  But since this "support" isn't translating to votes, is it possible that Clinton's crew thinks they can win without them?

Repeating myself:

While Bush v. Gore was still winding its way to a legal conclusion in 2000, Jim Hightower wrote that 308,000 registered Florida Democrats voted for George W. Bush in (and some people still blame Ralph Nader).  Those Sunshine State Blues -- 191,000 of whom were self-described "liberals" -- must not have gotten Barbra Streisand's memo that year.

Does repeating 2000's mistakes seem like the definition of insanity to you?  Because it does to me.

The only rationale I can get to is that Clinton's 2016 PUMAs think they can recruit enough GOP voters who can't stand Trump to make up for what they will lose from the left wing of the Democratic Party.  That seems like a very dangerous strategy.

While Sanders' fate was apparent to me eight months ago, the future for a Hillary versus Trump matchup is much less clear.  A Ted Cruz victory in Texas in two days -- perhaps by a lot -- shakes up the Etch a Sketch.  And Team Rubio is counting on that split between the dueling Demagogue Caucuses to continue, as he can make hay with the Not Trump and Not Cruz Republicans who think he's brilliant (really, that's what I have read them write), and by asserting that the Democrats are afraid to run against him (he's pushing this line in Houston teevee ads airing this morning).

Mitch McConnell thinks Trump is not only a sure thing but radioactive for the GOP, and if he is correct then a lot of money that would have otherwise gone to the presidential candidate will flow into Senate races, strengthening the hands of Republicans clinging to the majority in that body.

According to the New York Times, McConnell is assuring Senate candidates running for reelection that they should feel free to run ads against Trump if they feel he is hurting their own campaigns. According to senators attending private lunches with the Majority Leader, McConnell is taking the approach that Trump will lose badly in the general election and that senators should sell themselves as a bulwark against a Hillary Clinton presidency. 

Pointing out that he still won easily when President Bill Clinton was reelected, McConnell reportedly told colleagues that the party will drop Trump “like a hot rock” if he is the nominee. 

News of the party’s preemptive rejection of the potential nominee comes after a luncheon meeting attended by Republican governors and donors in Washington on Feb. 19 where political guru Karl Rove warned that Trump may be unstoppable for the GOP — and that his nomination could destroy other Republican candidate’s chances in November. 

According to people who attended a private presentation hosted by the conservative billionaires Charles G. and David H. Koch,  Trump’s record was deemed utterly unacceptable, causing high profile donors to hold back on donations out of fear it will be money that will be wasted.

So a worst-case scenario for Democrats is that turnout for their standard-bearer remains unenthused and flaccid.  Even in Harris County, usually reliably blue in presidential years, is seeing a 60-40 split R to D with early voting in the can.  That could translate into a Trump defeat of Clinton, a Republican Senate that still holds a bare majority after November, and a status quo, red rubberstamp House of Representatives.  And a whole lot of Clintonoids blaming Sandernistas for it.

If Clinton wins the presidency and the Democrats can capture the Senate, we will have circumstances not far removed from where they were in 2010, when Obama called the Congressional races a shellacking and the GOP first won the House and then gerrymandered their way into permanent control of it.  In 2012, when Democrats held on to the Senate but with a 55-45 majority, the Republicans filibustered everything, rewarding us with more hindrances to governing.  But that wasn't enough to get Democrats to vote in 2014, and we saw Shellacking, the Sequel in the wake of historically low midyear turnout, which allowed the GOP to take back the Senate ... producing even more unprecedented obstruction.

So as it always does, the answers turn on who and how many turn out to vote in 2016.  Will Democrats who supported Bernie cross over to Trump, fall in line for Clinton, vote for the actual progressive woman running for president, or do something dumb like stay home or write in Sanders?  Will Republicans nominate Trump and then vote for Hillary, as Houston council member Paul Kubosh claims he has heard?  Will turnout ratios at 2-1 for the GOP result in a downballot wave washing Team Blue out to sea?  And if that happens in a presidential year, how much worse can it get two years from now?

For somebody who's predicted things pretty well up to this point, I have to say that I don't have a clue about how 2016 is going to go.