Friday, November 13, 2009

Rasmussen confirms Tribune's GOP polling: Perry leads 46-35

Evan Smith would have to be feeling quite a bit better after seeing this:

Rasmussen Reports this morning is reporting a new poll showing Gov. Rick Perry leading U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 46 percent to 35 percent in the Texas GOP primary for governor. Activist Debra Medina had 4 percent support.

Perry led Hutchison by 10 percentage points in a July Rasmussen survey, but he held only a 40 percent to 38 percent lead in September shortly after Hutchison's formal announcement for governor.

You may recall that the Texas Tribune released a similar result on Election Day that many people questioned, including myself. More from RG Ratcliffe ...

One of the more interesting factoids in the poll is that by a margin of 60 percent to 26 percent, primary voters believe Hutchison should stay in the Senate while she challenges Perry.

Despite having an important vote next week scheduled the same day as her big endorsement event with Deadeye Dick here next week, I believe sitting tight in the Senate would be the course of action a self-indulgent self-preservationist such as Kay Bailey would prudently take. After a caveat about interpreting polls results, more again from Ratcliffe ...

Hutchison's campaign has not fully engaged Perry so far. While she has been campaigning in Texas, she has only fitfully done things to get free coverage from the state's news media. Instead, she has concentrated on appearing on cable television shows that reinforces the idea that she is a Washington insider.

Is that a failing reflected by his lead, or did she demonstrate in September that when she does engage and gets state media attention that she can quickly close the gap? If the latter is the case, then the strategy of putting the race off until the final two months makes some sense.

Also, all three polls have had Perry at 46 percent support or less. Is that his ceiling? Most of the time, an incumbent with re-elect numbers below 50 percent is viewed as vulnerable.

Spot on with all of that. Here we are mid-November and still no indication from KBH when she will "come home" and begin working on earning her 'promotion', and her gubernatorial prospects continue to head south . I believe she's got until Christmas to get it turned around or give it up.

Whatever she decides, Perry remains in control of his destiny. And comments like these in Midland may even be helping him with the freak-right base who votes in Republican primaries here.

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