Texas EV scattershots

-- This poll has Congressman WhataBeto trailing Senator Serpent Covered in Vaseline by four percentage points, 50-46, with the MoE at 4.  No crosstabs at the link.  The Lib, Neal Dikeman, polled 2% and 2% are undecided.

At first glance this would look like good news, but note that GSA Strategies is affiliated with Citizens United, and both are, shall we say, "progressive" outfits.  So there's a leetle bias.

Except for this one, there's been no fresh polling for nearly two weeks.  Update: As this was posted, the TexTrib via Progrexas has Reuters/Ipsos/UVA's latest, showing Cruz by 5, which is an increase of three points over their survey a month ago.  

Real Clear Politics (without the influence of either of the above yet) has the rolling 30-day average at Cruz +7.  Texas Politics Project (Blank and Henson at UT, also for the TexTrib) has history back to April, but the song remains the same.

#TrumpRally and #EarlyVoteTexas should be influencing actual vote counts now, but we can keep divining tea leaves and interpreting cabrito entrails until Election Day.  Just keep in mind that the polls could be as wrong as they were in 2016.

-- O'Rourke gets an assist from the Librul Media in the form of a town hall with Tweety.

MSNBC host Chris Matthews is coming to the University of Houston next week to interview U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke for his “Hardball College Tour” special.

Matthews announced during his Tuesday night broadcast that he plans to record an hour-long interview with Sen. Ted Cruz's Democratic opponent a week before the November election on Oct. 30 at Cullen Performance Hall.

After Matthews' on-air announcement, tickets were made available through the school’s website. Doors open at 4:30 p.m. while the taping begins at 6 p.m., the site reads. Attendees are prohibited from bringing “promotional or political affiliation displays.”

And another pop culture merger for the Democrat.

Artist Chris Rogers has been at work on the mural for weeks, according to progress documented on his Instagram, but he put the finishing touches on it just as early voting began in the state.

The mural, located in East Austin, features O’Rourke, a rising Democratic star, standing in front of a Texas flag with his shirt unbuttoned to reveal a “B” emblem, reminiscent of Superman’s “S.”

“Out of the darkness comes the light,” Rogers wrote of the mural, which is entitled “Beto For Texas.”

Rogers said that the mural took 40 hours to paint, according to Austin Monthly.

I thought Election 2018 was going to be all about Texas Latin@s and Lupe Valdez, but I'm going to be wrong about that, of course.  As Beto goes, so go Texas Democrats, as we all know now.

-- You should check this fellow's Twitter bio and then read the numbers here.

Here is a snapshot of who voted early in the biggest Texas counties based on previous election history. #txlege #txsen pic.twitter.com/Z3jeLoAwcP

— Derek Ryan (@longhornderek) October 24, 2018

Ryan's Tweet here indicates that a lot of people who don't usually vote in midterms are voting -- almost 30% of those who have already cast an early ballot.  After just two days.  The TexTrib has raw numbers for Harris and Dallas Counties.

1/ 689,613 Texans have already voted in the 30 counties where most registered voters in the state live.

That turnout equals 34.3 percent of the total votes cast in those counties during the entire two-week early voting period in 2014.https://t.co/mneKCMK3NV#tx2018 #txsen pic.twitter.com/3mTWOtlqdT

— Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) October 24, 2018

I don't underscore Harris just because I live and vote here or because it's the largest county in Texas, blahblah.  It represents about a fifth of all the Democratic votes cast in the state.  And you may have read that new voter registrations here shattered records.  So the reports this week of hour-long waits at EV locations in Harris County -- and for that matter, across Texas -- could be something the polls are missing.  But this NBC account says "hold on there, blue wave" (emphasis mine):

Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in early voting in seven closely watched states, according to data provided by TargetSmart and independently analyzed by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.

GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

[...]

In Texas, 53 percent of early voters had a Republican affiliation, compared with 43 percent who had a Democratic affiliation and 4 percent who were not affiliated with either party.

[...]

Women voters have outpaced men voters so far in ... Texas (59 percent to 41 percent), (and) urban voters have outpaced rural and suburban voters in Arizona and Texas.

Here is the important qualifier to this data.

As of Oct. 22, over 5 million votes have been cast early or absentee in the 2018 midterm elections nationwide.

This piece, dated Monday 10/22 and helpfully time-stamped at 2:49 p.m. (probably EST) does not include any in-person votes for Texas.  That is to say: these are all mail (aka 'absentee') ballots, and party affiliation is reflected (at least in Harris) by efforts of those at the county party level who push to identify and augment those numbers during the voter registration period.  You may recall that Harris County Republicans used to have a big advantage in this regard, but Harris Democrats have considerably whittled that down.

Update: Local political consultant Mustafa Tameez expanded on the problems with the TargetSmart data in his Tweet linked here.

So while there may be considerations for other states in the article to be concerned about w/r/t to "Blue Wave", Lone Star worries are overblown, to this reporter's POV.  At this time.

-- Perhaps you noticed that Michael Avenatti quietly canceled his Texas anti-Trump counter-rally.  (Avenatti's Tweet about doing so, and at least two mentions by TexTrib reporters that I bookmarked, have also disappeared.)  Perhaps you noticed that he's been keeping a (somewhat) lower profile for the past week or so, since his client lost her defamation lawsuit against Trump.

Back here I speculated (doubtfully; scroll to the end) about whether local deep-pocketed Democrats attending his Harris County Dem money bag drag would mention his responsibility -- ascribed accurately or falsely -- for the Kavanaugh bump Republicans seem to be enjoying.  That fundraiser, on 10/16, happened the day after DNC chair Tom Perez was also in town helping the HCDP with some cheerleading, a geographically proximal coincidence that largely escaped public notice.

I should have put two and two together.  Two being Harris County judicial kingmakers Gerry Birnberg and Dave Matthiesen, who together with Perez -- and let's say, for purposes of rounding, at least one other Houston legal eagle who wrote a $2500 check for VIP entry -- very likely cornered Avenatti and asked him to please freeze it.  For the sake of the downballot, you know.

Check Avenatti's Tweet feed above, scroll back in time to about the 16th and then forward, see if you think he heard a message somebody sent him.

I would pay to see that fight

Greg Abbott v. Vlad Putin, in a leg-wrestling contest as part of a decathlon of 'World's Most Powerful Dictator' events.  On pay-per-view.  What should the Vegas line should be?

At a rally on Monday night, the governor of Texas declared himself 'more powerful' than Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Greg Abbott was warming up the crowd for President Donald Trump at the Toyota Center in Houston when he bragged that his state's economy is the tenth-biggest economy on the planet.

"By comparison, the Texas economy is larger than Canada -- it's larger than Australia. And get this, the Texas economy is even larger than the economy of Russia," the Republican governor told the crowd.

"That makes me more powerful than Putin!" he boasted to applause.

You might be forgiven if you thought this was going to be a rally for 'Beautiful Ted' Cruz.

Now perhaps General Abbott and his Army were simply volunteering for service in the War on Russian voter electoral fraud.  In Trump's one-hour and eighteen-minute address to the faithful last evening -- Senator White Castle only spoke for thirteen minutes; your clearest tell he was an afterthought -- Our Greatest President Ever did not mention scrapping the intermediate nuclear missile treaty that is provoking tension with his Kremlin BFF (or so both Fox and  Democrats keep telling us.  He did repeat some fake news about a middle class tax cut before Election Day.)

But I don't want to digress from our Dear Paraplegic Leader's boast.

Let's give the Guv some credit for maintaining an ideal body weight and trim figure after all these years off his feet.  Isn't it remarkable how many calories a man can burn being a total sociopath?  He might not have been nimble enough to avoid being struck by a falling tree when he was young, but in the decades since, he's carefully watched his diet and has no discernible middle-age paunch.  I would hazard a guess that's without being able to do any sit-ups.  I'll also bet that he can take a body blow from the Russian Bear if they decide to spar a few rounds.

Who do you think wins in a 90-second lightning round fundraising competition?  We can ask Charles Kuffner to be the judge of the campaign finance reports.

Probably no distance running, but a 50-yard dash/roll could be interesting.  Gymnastics, like those Olympic rings or parallel bars, or better yet, monkey bars.  A hand over hand climb gives Abbott too much of an edge, I suspect.

A pandering-to-your-millionaires faceoff would be close.  Call it Plutocratic Pugilistics.  Separate from the Money Chase above, this contest would be determined by how much you could promise to do in exchange for a government position ("Tap That Crony") or a relaxation of regulations, rather than a monetary donation.  The minimum acceptable standard would have to be Trump's own recent world record; his awarding of the South African ambassadorship to Mar-a-Lago member and handbag designer Lana Marks sets a pretty high bar for Abbott and Putin to clear.

I can't handicap this match.  Who gets home field advantage?  Is it a best of five, or seven?

This could be the almost-ultimate Battle of the Ages.  Armageddon, Jr.  World War 2.5, televised on Fox, emceed by President Reality TV, for all the Nationalist marbles.  Sponsored by the NRA (they have large and equal bets on both sides), the Southern Baptist Convention, and Super Poli-Grip.

These people will buy and swallow anything.

The Early Voting Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance encourages you to go get your vote on this week, before the lines get any longer.

Numbers will be trickling in from all over the state later today, but for now we are getting reports of very long lines for casting ballots even at polling places that have traditionally been more like ghost towns on the first day of early vote.

All over Texas –- in Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, The Valley, Lubbock, etc. – wait times are 30 minutes to an hour at traditionally empty polling places. Some Texas House members down in San Antonio and elsewhere told us they’ve been getting calls from constituents complaining of long wait times.

Long lines are also reported in big suburban counties like Williamson, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Collin, and Denton. Those places, it is worth noting, saw some of the biggest surges in Democratic turnout during the primary this year.

Indeed, that was this blogger's experience.

The line at Fiesta Mart, South Main, Houston, 9:45 am this morning. One hour wait for #EarlyVoting in #TX2018. pic.twitter.com/1xkSN9N2qI

— PDiddie (@PDiddie) October 22, 2018

And then there's this:

So far, 43,593 votes have been processed in #HarrisCounty. It’s only 2:26 PM. That’s already about twice as many votes as we usually see on the entire first day of early voting during midterm elections. https://t.co/LEzoeLKTia #abc13 pic.twitter.com/IIkOzKVwfq

— Pooja Lodhia (@PoojaOnTV) October 22, 2018

Meanwhile, the MAGAts swarmed the Toyota Center in downtown Houston, hoping to get inside to see President Reality TV Show, Governor Hell on Wheels, Lite Gov. Dan Patrick (in Hiding), and Senator Rafael "Tough as Taffy" Cruz.

A fan of the man awaits Monday evening Trump rally in Houston. #potus #trump pic.twitter.com/R4kZLJZgAP

— kherman (@kherman) October 22, 2018

Here's a few of the best of the lefty blog posts and news from last week ...

Abby Livingston at the TexTrib asked the $64,000 question: Will Trump's Houston rally for Cruz motivate Republicans -- or Democrats?

SocraticGadfly, collating and expanding on several previous posts and Twitter interactions, explained why he plans to undervote the U.S. Senate race.

Stace at Dos Centavos got what he wanted in a Beto O'Rourke immigration ad.  In fact, Beto hit Cruz pretty hard.

In covering the final debate between the two US Senate combatants, PDiddie at Brains and Eggs saw Whataburger defeat White Castle in a split decision.  And Juanita Jean at the World's Most Dangerous Beauty Salon named her favorite moment from the Cruz-O'Rourke debate.

Forrest Wilder at the Texas Observer will be looking to see if Lupe Valdez's performance against Greg Abbott is a good test of the strength of the 'Beto effect'.

Off the Kuff published an interview with Kim Olson, the Democratic candidate for Ag Commissioner.

Grassroots organization Houston Justice Coalition's board voted unanimously to support Proposition B, the Space City firefighters' pay parity proposal.

Grits for Breakfast has an election season podcast posted, and within that some excerpts from the Dallas County DA's debate. 

The late Anthony Bourdain visited Marfa and Big Bend in some of the last 'Parts Unknown' stops, and asked residents there about the border wall.

Build a wall? Not everyone in Texas is on board. Journey into Far West Texas with #Bourdain on an all-new #PartsUnknown, Sunday at 9p ET/PT on CNN pic.twitter.com/mPatMPsXry

— CNN (@CNN) October 21, 2018

Texas Vox finds meaning in organizing after reading the IPCC (climate change) report.

Five death row exonerees were photographed in front of the Texas Governor's Mansion following the March to Abolish the Death Penalty last Saturday, courtesy the Texas Moratorium Network.

Better Texas Blog wrote about the staggering unfairness of the state tax system.

Millard Fillmore's Bathtub posted about Scout campfires and their role in the BSA's Order of the Arrow program.

David Collins reviewed The Fiery Cross, the fifth of Diana Gabaldon's "Outlander" novels.

And Harry Hamid has part 617 of the further adventures of George Soros.

Holly Dorrell, 2008 -2018

 Her kidneys were failing, and we ended her suffering yesterday morning.

She came to us in January of 2012 via the wonderful people at Barrio Dogs (please foster, adopt, or contribute), after they were able to rescue her from a pile of boxes in front of an East End house that had burned.  She was waiting for her people to come back, but they weren't.

They had tried several times to catch her, luring her with food; in retrospect, knowing her as the most food-motivated dog ever, it seemed incredible that multiple capture attempts were needed.  They had documented the effort on their Facebook page over the course of several days, which is how I came to decide that I/we would like to get involved.  This period of time, right around Christmas 2011 -- thus her name -- was frightfully cold, with temps dropping into the low 20's over consecutive nights.  When they finally managed to get her, they took her directly to the vet and determined she was high-positive for heartworms.  The doctor told them she might not have survived another cold night.  She's the only dog I ever heard of that had to have two shots; one to kill the adult heartworms, and another shot 30 days later to kill the microfilaria, or the baby heartworms born when the parents die.

We were going to just foster her, but became known in the parlance as 'foster failures'.

When she first came to live with us, she curled up on the welcome mat just inside the front door.  I encouraged her to get on the ottoman in the den, and eventually she made herself at home on any piece of furniture she chose, without reprimand.  Mostly she stayed or slept wherever I was.  She was my dog; she liked everybody, there were no strangers to her, but she preferred men.  And especially me.  (All of my other dogs like my wife's company better.)

She had a joie de vivre unlike any dog I ever owned.  She would sometimes just jump out of sheer pleasure.  Not at a person but up in the air, when nobody (but me) was watching.  And she verbalized her joy; barking twice when I asked if she wanted to "peedle", or if she was ready for breakfast or supper.  'Car ride' elicited a stream of excited yips and warblings from the time we reached for her collar all the way to returning home.  She was so constantly loud on the rides it was stress-inducing.  If Mrs. Diddie and I began a conversation at the dining room table, Holly would invariably join us, climbing up on a chair as if to listen better.  Similarly, when we boarded our pack at the kennel upon leaving town, the staff invariably adored her little chatterings while she took to the handlers, especially the guys, charming them all.

A few weeks ago she strained something in her back jumping from the bed to the floor, and we gave her some meds prescribed by the vet, which helped her pain.  But within a couple of weeks she began to lose her appetite and became listless; she stopped speaking at all.  Blood tests confirmed the worst, and we chose not to prolong her misery.

My family had many dogs throughout my life growing up, and one or two as a boy that were mine, close to me.  But after I left home for college, and until we got our first puppy about thirteen years ago, a span of about thirty years passed between my canine ownership periods.

I was hoping that by writing this post, I would get to some healing place.  Not yet.  My heart remains shattered by her departure.  The Bible says that dogs cannot go to heaven, which only reinforces my atheism.  As Will Rogers said: "If all dogs DON'T go to heaven, I want to go where they went."

Me too, Will, and I sure hope my little Holly is waiting there for me.

Sunday Funnies

Politico: Hillary Clinton isn't going away - and Democrats aren't sure what to do about it