Overnight developments in voter ID case, polling

-- YouGov, which polled me on September 20 and completed fieldwork on these latest results on October 1, has Greg Abbott at 54% and Wendy Davis at 40%. (John Cornyn leads David Alameel 55-35).  In other words, nothing has changed.

YouGov has already polled me again over the weekend, for Texas statewide races all the way down to Land Commissioner (no judicials) and several hot-button issues.  Those include the National Guard at the border, supporting or opposing deportation of immigrants and the photo ID law, various circumstances under which a woman should be able to have an abortion, whether undocumenteds should receive in-state tuition, and gay marriage.  This sounds like a Texas Tribune/UT profile to me, and thus I would expect results from this polling in a week... just in time for early voting

In their overall US Senate measurements, YouGov has the Democrats losing Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, and South Dakota.   They hold Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado, and Michigan.  Kansas is dead even.  In that scenario, Mitch McConnell becomes Senate Majority Leader (if his caucus will still have him, that is).

-- The Fifth Circuit has ordered all parties in the Texas photo ID case to submit their arguments by 3 p.m. today.  Lyle Denniston at SCOTUS blog reiterates what was posted here previously.

If this dispute moves on to the Supreme Court, which seems quite likely, it will be the fourth time in recent days that the Justices have been drawn into the widespread controversy in this election season over new restrictions on voting rights.

In three separate actions, the Justices blocked a voter ID law in Wisconsin, but permitted limitations on early voting in Ohio and limits on same-day registration and voting as well as some limits on vote counting in North Carolina.

The differing treatment has not been explained, but it appears that the Court has been less willing to permit changes in voting procedures to be changed close to elections.  That is a principle the Court appeared to establish in a late October 2006 decision, Purcell v. Gonzalez, involving an Arizona proof-of-citizenship requirement, which the Justices allowed to remain in effect, citing “the imminence of the election and the inadequate time to resolve the factual disputes.”

In the Texas dispute, the Fifth Circuit is expected to act quickly after the challengers and the Justice Department offer their views on the postponement request.  Those filings were limited to ten pages.

Texas conducted elections in 2013 using photo IDs.  Not requiring them for voting beginning a week from tomorrow could be considered a material enough revision by the SCOTUS for them to dodge an appeal from the plaintiffs if/when the Fifth Circuit rules against them.   If I were a betting man -- and I am -- my guess is that the Fifth overturns Judge Ramos' decision tomorrow evening or Tuesday morning, there is an immediate appeal to the SC which they decline to consider, and photo IDs go back into effect for the Texas election.

I'd be delighted to be wrong somewhere in there.

Updates: This report in the DMN details the hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions that Fulbright & Jaworski and Vinson & Elkins, two of the largest law firms in Texas, have made to Greg Abbott in exchange for even larger-dollar contracts for legal work from the state of Texas.  Thirty-nine million dollars to F&J, $13 million to V&E.  It's more of the same old quid pro quo from Abbott.

And via e-mail, the two major party state Comptroller candidates, Mike Collier and Glenn Hegar, will hold a debate on October 29, to be televised by Time Warner Cable.

Sunday Freak Out Funnies

Dan Patrick seizes on ISIS-at-border claims in first TV ad

Wheelchair ads

National media seems to have the vapors about Wendy Davis' latest teevee ad.  And if that's what the WaPo and the AP are saying, you can only imagine how offended Breitbart Texas is acting.  Why, even Mother Jones is clutching her pearls.

I just don't think any of these people have been following the race for Texas governor very closely.  Or if they have, they've been doing so from a posh suite of offices inside the Beltway.

Here's a couple of explanations for the out-of-towners about how political campaigns go in the Lone Star State from some of my fellow bloggers who know about these things.  Or you can read the comments on the story at the HouChron, which for the uninitiated is no bastion of Texas liberalism.  You will find several short -- even Tweetably short -- descriptions of precisely what the spot is about.

Specifically, a self-loathing sociopath.

For those who won't click: the ad is about the baldest demonstration of hypocrisy ever performed by any politician anywhere, and not the fact that he was too stupid to get out of the way of a falling tree.  So let's be certain that the corporate media outside Texas regains its focus by repeating the truth about Greg Abbott.

Now if someone wants to scream and cry about those who would make fun of people in wheelchairs, I got your outrage right here.  Swinging.

More Texas voter ID legal developments

-- Greg Abbott asks for some guidance (via Quorum Report).

While it is obvious that the federal court in Corpus Christi has rejected Texas' voter ID law as discriminatory and a de facto poll tax, it failed to issue a judgment instructing the state on required procedures, if any, for the November election.

The Office of the Attorney General has issued a request for guidance on the initiation and scope of the injunction and whether it will be implemented for this election. The request notes "The issuance of an opinion with no injunction or direction regarding the timing of the injunction is already adding to the confusion created by the Court’s decision. Texas respectfully requests that the Court enter the planned injunction and judgment by the close of business today."

The request for guidance can be found here.

Update (10/11): And guidance is supplied.

-- Chad Dunn, the TDP lawyer who makes his living doing this, weighs in (via Lone Star Project):

LSP: Greg Abbott has already announced that he will appeal Judge Ramos’ ruling to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. How long will that process take, and what happens after the 5th Circuit rules?

CD: We expect Judge Ramos to issue an order formally blocking enforcement of the Texas voter ID law within the next few days. Greg Abbott has already announced that he will appeal her ruling and ask the 5th Circuit US Court of Appeals to reverse her order. After the 5th Circuit rules, the case will almost certainly be appealed to the US Supreme Court. It would not surprise me if both the 5th Circuit and the Supreme Court issue rulings on this matter in next ten days. (emphasis mine)

I guess some attorneys are going to be working over the weekend.