The P Slate for the Texas D primary on March 1st

I'll be voting tomorrow morning, at the earliest possible moment in the Democratic primary, which will eliminate me from all but press credentials in terms of participating in the Harris County Green Party's county, state, and presidential nominating conventions (to be held this summer right here in H-Town).  Here's a few people who have earned a vote on my ballot, and some who've earned a thumbs-up from me that aren't, and a few that don't.  YMMV, and if you don't like my options, pick your own from the League of Women Voters' Guide.

I'm predicting the following two winners in the Texas presidential primaries:

I don't mean to imply that they're the same person; they're just the two people most likely to emerge victorious. Or if you prefer...

Scary, I know.

For President of the United States: Bernie Sanders.

Plan A is in effect.  Plan B is on deck.

For US Congress, Seventh District: Nobody.  I've expended too many disgusted pixels blogging about John Culberson and James Cargas.  Cargas is, in fact, one of the most significant reasons why I'm a DINO.  This is an undervote in the primary and in the general.

Not on my ballot but having earned my support for his personal outreach is Adrian Garcia over Gene Green.  Green is just too embedded in the establishment, too wedded to the fossil fuel operators that line the Houston Ship Channel, and much, much too conservaDem for my taste.  I have written a lot of very mean things about Garcia during his tenure as county sheriff and in his mayoral bid, but he never complained to me about it, never stopped following me on Twitter or unfriended me on social media.  After last year's mayoral election he sent me a kind note unrelated to politics via LinkedIn private message, and and I wished him luck in his race for Congress.

Garcia may or may not be a better Democrat these days, but he endorsed Sylvester Turner for Houston mayor while my choice, Chris Bell, endorsed Bill King.  That's good enough for me. Sometimes that's all it takes to earn a vote, folks.

For Railroad Commissioner: Lon Burnham.  I'll probably vote again for Martina Salinas, the Green candidate, in November because Burnham -- one of the most staunch progressive Democrats in the Lege until his defeat a couple of years ago -- has reached out to people like Bill White and Wendy Davis to help him get nominated.  As such, I'm voting for one of Burnham's primary challengers.  Not Grady Yarbrough; Cody Garrett.  Burnham is a good enough choice, as evidenced by this Dallas News op-ed; but he lost my vote when he could have held on to it.

For Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 2: Lawrence "Larry" Meyers. The Republican-turned-Democrat on the Court of Criminal Appeals lost in his bid for state Supreme Court two years ago and is running for re-election this cycle.  Democrats really need to turn out the vote for him in November, as he is the state's highest-ranking Democrat (by virtue of his party switch).  If he falls short in a presidential election year, with a Clinton-Castro ticket at the top ...

For State Senator, District 13: Rodney Ellis.  With much regret, as he no longer wants this job, preferring the high-dollar gig on Harris Commissioners Court.  Ellis, a longtime elected official, doesn't respond to my constituent e-mail and doesn't follow me on Twitter.  In most other cases I would not endorse or vote for that level of representation, and I might have to withhold voting for him for commissioner if I cannot get his attention any other way.  But I'm going to give him one last vote and see what happens.  Hellllo, Senator ...

For Sate Representative, District 146: Borris L. Miles.  Pretty much the same personal experience with him lately as Ellis.  If you search the archives here you'll find dozens of glowing reviews of Miles dating back to his first challenge to Al Edwards.  I've been his guest on a bus back and forth to Austin for opening day and for lobby days at least twice.  But he's gotten a little crazy over the past few years,  and when he voted to strike down Denton's fracking ban in the last session -- and then didn't return several of my calls to his office for explanation -- I had to step off.

Now he wants Ellis' job.  He won't get my vote for that if I don't see some greater effort trying to earn it, particularly since it's rumored he will have formidable opposition.

For Chief Justice, First Court of Appeals: Jim Peacock.  Peacock fell short of getting elected to the Harris County bench in 2014, collecting 45% of the vote in his bid for the 157th District Court against Randy Wilson.  This cycle he's stepping up to be the general election foe against Republican Sherry Radack.  If Hillary Clinton's coattails are long enough, there's a chance.

For Justice, First Court of Appeals, Place 4: Barbara Gardner.  Long favored and previously endorsed in this space, Gardner is top-shelf.  Let's take this once-every-four-years opportunity to get some Democratic representation on the Court of Appeals.

For Justice, Fourteenth Court of Appeals, Place 2: Jim Sharp.  I still like Sharp even though he's been a loose cannon, to understate the case.  Harold Cook -- whose political opinions I have disagreed with perhaps more than any other Democrat in Texas -- does not.

Between the two, Cook is the bigger egotistical jerk.  Vote for Sharp.

I'm undervoting the Place 5 CCA where Betsy Johnson is the late filer.  She's not qualified.  She was recruited at the last minute by the TDP so that the Green, Judith Sanders-Castro, wouldn't be unopposed in November.  That's bullshit (here's what I wrote about that back in December).

Read more about the candidates for Courts of Appeal in both major party primaries on your respective ballot from Bob Mabry.

Harris County

For District Judge, 11th: This contested primary is very close to call.  I'm going with Jim Lewis, whom the Chron recommends.  Stace has nice things to say about Rabeea Collier.

For District Judge, 61st: Dion Ramos.  I like Ramos over his two female challengers because he's been a district judge previously.  I have also snarked on him in the past (scroll to the end, watch the video), and his opposition is worthy, but Ramos has made the personal touch that the others haven't.  (You may be noticing a trend in my endorsements.)

Vote also for Democratic incumbent Judges Larry Weiman, Kyle Carter, R.K. Sandhill, Michael Gomez, Jaclanel McFarland, Mike Engelhart, Robert K. Schaffer, Alexandra Smoots-Hogan, and for former Judge Josefina Rendon over Ursula Hall. (Hall isn't as bright as she claims.)

I also like these candidates in contested and uncontested judicial D primary races: the Honorables (past and present) Hazel B. Jones, Shawna Reagin, Randy Roll, Steven Kirkland, Herb Ritchie, and Maria Jackson.  Like the Chronicle, I prefer JoAnn Storey over incumbent Elaine Palmer.  Palmer was bad news before she got elected.  I'm also taking Kelli Johnson over Lori Gray, who like Palmer is financially supported by the odious George Fleming.

The Harris County District Attorney's contested race features Lloyd Oliver, Kim Ogg. and Morris Overstreet.  I'm voting for Overstreet because I just don't think Ogg can beat Devon Anderson.  Anderson is covering all the Democratic bases, from indicting the Planned Parenthood sting videographers to collecting an award from the NAACP, for which that organization has been criticized.  The only question is how many Republican votes the incumbent DA stands to lose.  She's uncontested for re-election in the Republican primary.

County Attorney Vince Ryan, Harris County's highest-ranking Democrat, is unopposed and will face whichever Republican emerges from that party's contested primary: Chris Carmona or Jim Leitner.  Carmona has a handful of failed city council bids on his resume' while Leitner has an English surname, which appears to be his strongest advantage.  Murray Newman doesn't like Leitner but Murray Newman's pain-in-the-ass blogging antagonist certainly does.  Big Jolly's GOP endorsements spreadsheet has Carmona in the lead 4-1, with Leitner's lone backer being Dr. Steven Hotze.

(I report, you decide which Republican is worst.)

I'm voting for Ed Gonzales, Harris County's next sheriff.  I have no recommendation to make in the Justice of the Peace Precinct 7, Place 1 contested primary.  I can only winnow the field down to Not Hillary Green the incumbent, and Not Keryl Douglas.

That leaves County Tax Assessor/Collector, and I'll be supporting Ann Harris Bennett over Brandon Dudley.  This one was very simple: Dudley, as Rodney Ellis' chief of staff, never made sure my inquiries and entreaties to the senator's office got answered.  Dudley may be all that and a bag of chips, but I just wouldn't know.  Bennett, on the other hand, has long been this blog's preferred candidate, and she barely missed in 2012.

Sometimes votes are won and lost as easy as that.

The Weekly EV Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance reminds you to get out and vote, starting tomorrow, in the 2016 primary as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff published interviews with three candidates vying to reclaim HD144 for the Democrats.

Libby Shaw. contributing to Daily Kos, warns Republican governance can be deadly. Literally. A Tale of Two Cities: Flint, MI and West, TX. How GOP governance can be deadly.

It felt as if there was a turning point in the last Democratic presidential candidates debate, and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs has the details.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is appalled that Texas Republicans are giving $.5M taxpayer dollars to help Blue Bell after they spent years delivering deadly listeria to its customers.

SocraticGadfly asked that we not have any unseemly faux mourning over the death of Nino Scalia.

The Lewisville Texan Journal has the early voting details for that city.

Txsharon at Bluedaze posts the call to action to stop fracking America's public lands.

Egberto Willies has video of the NBA All-Star Celebrity game's MVP telling America it could learn something from Canada. ... right before ESPN cut him off.

Neil at All People Have Value took a picture of a very cold Ohio River, at Cincinnati. APHV is a part of NeilAquino.com.

And Stace at Dos Centavos filed a review of Los Texmaniacs, appearing at Houston's premier dive bar, Under the Volcano, in Rice Village.

=======================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Culturemap Houston had the early confirmation of the University of Houston' hosting of the February 25 GOP presidential debate.

Moni at TransGriot reminds Republicans that they lost, Scalia is gone, and Obama gets to pick his replacement.

The Rag Blog is being hopeful about a Sanders-Trump general election.

The state of Texas is charging ahead with its plan to redesignate immigration lockup facilities as childcare centers, according to the Houston Press.

Lone Star Ma focused on the 7th of the United Nations' new Sustainable Development Goals: Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.

D Magazine asks whose fault it is when a pedestrian gets hit by a car.

Better Texas Blog reviews the proposed rules to qualify for a high-quality pre-kindergarten grant.

Doyen Oyeniyi searches in vain for an actual "sanctuary city".

The Dallas Observer does not like the way its mayor talked about the now-banned Exxxotica convention.

Keep Austin Wonky examined how city council there can use the 2016 presidential election to enhance Austin’'s mobility.

Pages of Victory remembers his big brother.

Finally, the TPA congratulates the Rivard Report for achieving its goal of becoming a non-profit.

Valentine's Day Funnies

No massacres (unless you're in a GOP debate), just laughs.

"Mere factual innocence is no reason not to carry out a death sentence properly reached."

Justice Antonin Scalia, on capital punishment (not the actual words, but certainly his intention).

Rest in peace.  May your god have mercy on your soul.  I have none to give.

The ramifications for the Supreme Court's workload, the Supreme Court's future composition and without question the 2016 presidential contest are enormous, and just beginning to be calculated. Some are detailed in Laura Clawson's post here.  Republicans have already promised no new justice will be confirmed while Obama is president.  Think Progress:

The longest it has ever taken to confirm a Supreme Court nominee is 125 days. Obama has 361 days left in office.

And hey, this is as good a time as any to emphasize the importance of a Sanders presidency ...

Update: SCOTUSblog answers the questions about what happens with this term's cases.

The passing of Justice Scalia of course affects the cases now before the Court.  Votes that the Justice cast in cases that have not been publicly decided are void.  Of course, if Justice Scalia’s vote was not necessary to the outcome – for example, if he was in the dissent or if the majority included more than five Justices – then the case will still be decided, only by an eight-member Court. 

If Justice Scalia was part of a five-Justice majority in a case – for example, the Friedrichs case, in which the Court was expected to limit mandatory union contributions – the Court is now divided four to four.  In those cases, there is no majority for a decision and the lower court’s ruling stands, as if the Supreme Court had never heard the case.  Because it is very unlikely that a replacement will be appointed this Term, we should expect to see a number of such cases in which the lower court’s decision is “affirmed by an equally divided Court.” 

The most immediate and important implications involve that union case.  A conservative ruling in that case is now unlikely to issue.  Other significant cases in which the Court may now be equally divided include Evenwel v. Abbott (on the meaning of the “one person, one vote” guarantee), the cases challenging the accommodation for religious organizations under the Affordable Care Act’s contraceptive mandate, and the challenge to the Obama administration’s immigration policy. 

The Court is also of course hearing a significant abortion case, involving multiple restrictions adopted by Texas.  In my estimation, the Court was likely to strike those provisions down.  If so, the Court would still rule – deciding the case with eight Justices. Conversely, the Court was likely to limit affirmative action in public higher education in the Fisher case.  But because only three of the liberal Justices are participating (Justice Kagan is recused), conservatives would retain a narrow majority. 

There is also recent precedent for the Court to attempt to avoid issuing a number of equally divided rulings.  In Chief Justice Roberts’s first Term, the Court in similar circumstances decided a number of significant cases by instead issuing relatively unimportant, often procedural decisions.  It is unclear if the Justices will take the same approach in any of this Term’s major, closely divided cases.

Update: Brad Friedman with the definitive piece.

A turning point

... for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination seemed to have occurred in the wake of last Thursday night's debate.

All day long I was antsy about it, and when debate night finally arrived, it was -- as they have all been -- substantive, snappy, a little snarly, certainly contentious, and finally a bit agreeable.  It was important for Bernie Sanders to do well in the debate (but that alone isn't good enough); overall I really thought it was going to be the pivotal moment in the primary contest, and it looks as if I was more correct than even I thought.

I promise at the end of my first term we won't have more people in jail than in any other country.

— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) December 11, 2015

Uh oh.

As Mark Kleiman, Leon Neyfakh, John Pfaff, Chris Hayes, Tim Murphy and German Lopez all noted, this is not simply a very ambitious goal. It is absurd, outlandish, ridiculous, disconnected — you name it. And not for the usual reasons that people say such things about Sanders’ promises, either. Not because it’s hard to imagine, but because it is impossible, full stop.

Read Kleiman in particular, or if you only have time to read one.  Update: More on Kleiman's POV from Socratic Gadfly.

Unlike his promises regarding health insurance and secondary education, then, Sanders’ promise concerning mass incarceration doesn’t irk because it refuses to grapple with “political reality.” It irks because it refuses to grapple with reality, period. 

As much as the idea of a “political revolution” may strain credulity, you could at least imagine how a mass movement might usher in a new Great Society. A liberal Congress is swept into office, one itching to make good on the promises of the new democratic socialist president. It’s extremely unlikely, granted, but at least you can conceive of it. With all due respect to the power of popular democracy, though, there is no movement — no matter how massive — that can defeat the stubborn insistence of basic facts. 

So is Sanders’ campaign doomed, now that he’s revealed himself to be either disingenuous or ignorant when it comes to mass incarceration? No, not remotely; Clinton, too, has made promises it is incredibly hard to imagine her being able to keep. What the strong pushback his proposal’s received from many sympathetic pundits does suggest, though, is that their patience for his idealism is not unlimited. 

And if the press decides that it no longer sees Sanders as America’s cranky but lovable socialist grandpa, and that it no longer sees his promises as ambitious rather than demagogic, then it could turn on his remarkable presidential campaign — hard and fast.

Hillary's also 'found her voice', according to her very large support network in the media.  So no matter the DNC stacking the deck against him in terms of both superdelegates (Nate Silver gives a glimmer of hope here) and lobbyists and super PACs, no matter Hillary's own truly wretched and severe shortcomings, the potential for Sanders being undone by his own hand is now very real.

The Clinton Machine is grinding hard in South Carolina.  It may be hitting a wall in Nevada (Crooks and Liars, in Susie Madrak tradition, throws cold water on that poll showing them tied) but the Hillaryians have an ace card up their sleeve there.  And then comes the SEC primary on March 1.

Clinton is eyeing the large group of southern states that vote that day, including Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Tennessee. BIll Clinton is heading to Memphis Thursday and will travel to Atlanta again soon. These states, along with South Carolina, are part of her much-discussed Southern Firewall. But Clinton will need to frontload delegates at the beginning of the month, because there are only two southern states – Louisiana and Mississippi – left after March 1. 

Meanwhile, Sanders is eyeing whiter and more liberal Super Tuesday states, like Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts, and his home state of Vermont. Both candidates will appear in coming days in Minnesota and Colorado, two states where Sanders is strong. Clinton dominated Barack Obama by 15 points in Massachusetts in 2008, and this year she has widespread support among elected officials. 

With a whopping 222 delegates, Texas will also be major battleground, with an outright win being perhaps less important than claiming as large a chunk of delegates as possible. Clinton recently picked up the endorsement of the largest Latino group in the state and has deployed surrogates like the Sec. Julian and Rep. Joaquin Castro to campaign on her behalf. 

Sanders this week reserved TV advertising in Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts, and – surprisingly for one of the reddest states in the country – Oklahoma. Both campaigns seem to be targeting Oklahoma and its 38 delegates. Sanders sent his scrappy Iowa organizer Pete D’ALessandro to the state, while Clinton’s campaign set their Iowa press secretary.

Clinton's lined up almost every elected official in Texas, and some formers, including Wendy Davis, who's been onboard for the past six months.  Davis needs a job that provides a path back into electoral politics, after all, and a stint in a Clinton 2.0 administration is just the ticket.  Fresh polling from the TexTrib's YouGov is in the field (I have been polled), and that is likely to show Clinton still in control here in Deep-In-The-Hearta.

Sanders isn't in big trouble yet but he's swimming against the tide, and I don't think he's strong enough to overcome it.  We'll keep watching and waiting, but it sounds like the bell has tolled.

Grand Old Psychopaths take another debate turn

The next Republican presidential debate will be tonight at 9 pm Eastern. It will take place in Greenville, South Carolina, and will air on CBS. An online live stream will be available at CBSNews.com. 

Now that Iowa and New Hampshire have voted, the GOP field has gotten a lot smaller. Only six candidates will be onstage tonight: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Ben Carson. 

This will be the final GOP debate before the party's South Carolina primary on February 20 and its Nevada caucuses on February 23. Then there will be one more Republican debate before the March 1 "SEC primary," in which many Southern states and a few non-Southern ones will go to the polls.

That one will be in Houston, as we learned (again) earlier this week.  I'm going to apply for a media credential and see what happens.

The nomination contest has entered a dangerous phase for the Republican establishment. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump — two candidates loathed by party elites — have won the two contests so far, and by most accounts are the two top contenders in South Carolina as well. Even many who have long been skeptical of Trump's chances are starting to admit that he could really win this thing. 

But a bizarre dynamic to the race has persisted, in which all of the non-Trump candidates are still more focused on attacking each other than they are on attacking Trump. From each candidate's perspective, it makes sense — they're all hoping to end up the last non-Trump candidate standing, and to eventually take on the billionaire head to head. But as long as they all remain in the race and fighting each other, Trump seems more likely to cruise to victory.

My emphasis.  It's Trump versus Clinton in November; you heard it here first.

The non-Trump vote is so divided because Marco Rubio, the emerging establishment Republican favorite, stumbled in New Hampshire, finishing in fifth place behind Trump, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush. As a result, Kasich and Bush decided to stay in the race, which could ensure that the more mainstream GOP vote will remain divided for some time. 

One of the big questions of this debate is whether Rubio can recover from his panned performance last time around. If he manages to come off as unscripted — say, if he wins some tense one-on-one exchanges with other candidates — he could be deemed the debate's winner and regain some of the ground he's lost both in the polls and in elite opinion.

I believe all he is doing now is auditioning for vice president.  He's the obvious choice for Trump; Latino, from a swing state, needs more political seasoning, and also in need of a job once he's out of the running.

Still, the marquee contest has to be Trump versus Cruz — both are battling to win South Carolina. Things have gotten increasingly tense between them lately. Cruz is running a new ad attacking Trump over his attempt in the 1990s to use eminent domain to take an elderly widow's home so he could build a limousine parking lot. And Trump has been striking back against Cruz on Twitter, asking on Friday, "How can Ted Cruz be an Evangelical Christian when he lies so much and is so dishonest?" We'll see how their rivalry plays out during the debate.

Trump's also thinking of filing a birther lawsuit against Cruz if Ted doesn't stop running attack ads against him.  Oh what fun.

I am of the opinion that establishment Republicans, given the choice ultimately comes down to either Trump or Cruz, go with the billionaire because: a) they don't want him on the outside of the tent pissing in, b) the GOP "superdelegates" -- I refer here to the party's insiders and elected officials, not the same as the Democrats', to be clear about the contrast between the parties -- dislike Cruz more than they dislike Trump, and finally c) even at this late date, Trump could mount some insurgent third-party bid with his money and enthused supporters.  Even the smallest effort in that regard threatens a Republican Party nominee who has no votes to lose electorally.

It's still Clinton-Castro 2016 IMO, especially after last Thursday night, about which I'll have more to say in just a moment.

Henry Kissinger is nobody's friend

-- Socratic Gadfly scores last night's debate.  He speaks for me (and saves me a lot of time and effort), but I'll go ahead and post what I saw anyway.

-- You'll never guess where Hillary last wore that yellow cape.

She just doesn't get it.  Since you can't really believe what she says, you have to rely solely on her actions.  And those betray her words over and over and over.

Let's be clear: all those Tweets about Big Bird and bananas and Colonel Mustard's wife and Kim Jong Ill (as in vomit) are, in fact, sexist.  Pointing out that she wore the same thing twice in two public appearances might even be sexist.  Bernie Sanders looks like he slept in his car last night.  Is that sexist?  What is it called if women Tweet that his finger-wagging is "old man" behavior?

Meh.  Juvenile is what I'll call it.  Let's move on.

-- Here's the exchange on money in politics.  It's worth reading entirely.  And the back-and-forth on foreign policy likewise.  Your takeaway:

"I don’t know who you get your foreign policy advice from,” Clinton quipped. 

“Well, it ain’t Henry Kissinger,” Sanders replied.

-- Any additional questions about American foreign policy past, present, and future should be answered here, but Juan Cole is there for you with something more even-handed.

-- While Sanders and Clinton seemed to battle to a draw on interventionism and hegemony, Bernie really got the best of the debate on immigration.  Long excerpt:

In the final debate before Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders face off in states that feature the most diverse voting electorates yet seen on the campaign trail, the candidates went on the attack to cast doubt on their opponent’s dedication to the pro-immigrant cause. 

Clinton was cornered Thursday night into defending past calls to deport waves of Central American children, an issue that was hotly contested at the time but is now deeply unsettling for immigrant communities as fresh rounds of deportation raids sweep the country. 

The former secretary of state had taken a hard line against the thousands of unaccompanied minors that flooded the southwest border in 2014. And though Clinton has since dramatically softened her tone on how the U.S. should address the aftermath of the humanitarian crisis at the border, she was put on the defensive to explain why she supported deportation then, but opposes the raids now. 

[...] 

But the Obama administration shocked pro-immigrant organizations last month when it began carrying out deportation raids to sweep up families and deport them back to Central America. The raids have stoked fears from the immigrant community and resentment from congressional Democrats who vocally opposed the administration’s position. 

“I am against the raids. I’m against the kind of inhumane treatment that is now being visited upon families, waking them up in the middle of the night, rounding them up,” Clinton said. 

Sanders was forced to face his own vulnerabilities on immigration, namely his opposition to a 2007 bill to pass comprehensive immigration reform, a lingering problem that most Latinos agree needs to be solved. 

“I voted against it because the Southern Poverty Law Center among other groups said that the guest worker programs that were embedded in this agreement were akin to slavery,” Sanders said. “Akin to slavery. Where people came into this country to do guest work, were abused, were exploited. And if they stood up for their rights, they would be thrown out of this country.”

More from Politico, here (the conservative POV reflected here is: "horrified") and here (more blow-by-blow, underscoring the differences).  Sanders is moving farther and faster than just debating the issue.

-- Vox has five key moments, Think Progress laments there were no climate change questions, and Fusion slammed both Sanders and Clinton for not saying the word 'abortion'.  If you want to read the full transcript, here you go.

Sanders versus Clinton tonight once more, and the superdelegates

Tonight's debate, moderated by PBS NewsHour anchors Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, will be simulcast on CNN and NPR and stream live on NPR.org.  [...] 

Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton meet Thursday night on a debate stage in Milwaukee. It will be their first face-to-face matchup since Tuesday's New Hampshire primary where Sanders beat Clinton by more than 20 points. 

[...] 

PBS is a non-commercial network that doesn't live and die by ratings quite the way CNN or NBC does. The NewsHour, anchored by Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff, is known for lengthy, thoughtful interviews and stories that dig deep. It seems quite likely that sensibility will change the types of questions that are asked. This could be good news for Democratic voters who haven't yet seen the candidates get beyond sound bite answers in debates on issues like criminal justice reform and immigration.

Lots of Clinton folks mocking out the Sanders people about their superdelegate quandary.  When I need the highest douchebaggery, I know that Ted will always be there.

"Not a Democrat".  (False.) "Party's rules don't change." (False.)  And so on like that.  It's all over my social media in the wake of their candidate's tie in Iowa and her crushing defeat in New Hampshire (in which she will still take away the most delegates).  There is no hint of irony in all of this, but a lot of sneering condescension.

Sanders has so far carried, by large majorities, young people -- who don't typically turn out -- and independents, whom a candidate must have in order to win a general election.  These voters have not been attracted to the Democratic Party in the past, and won't be in the future, particularly if these insults against them continue.  And the highest insult is going to be the conduct of the superdelegates.

Superdelegates only came into existence following the defeats of George McGovern in '72 and Jimmy Carter in '80, and not implemented until '84... and the blowout loss of Walter Mondale.  So it would seem that the elite Democrats do no better at selecting the nominee than they perceive the plebians to be.

By 1982, however, the sentiment was essentially that the cure (1972, "validated" by 1980) was worse than the disease (1968).

Since at least that time (I would assert the problem goes back to the selection of Harry Truman over Henry Wallace for vice-president in 1944), Democrats have cowered in fear at the thought of another standard-bearer who represents what the Democratic Party used to represent.  (This primer from almost exactly eight years ago is instructive.)  As more current evidence, simply look at Texas superdelegates, i.e. predominantly Democratic elected officials and donors -- aka the only moderate Republicans left on Earth -- lining up early to support the establishment candidate.  As a result, I won't be able to endorse any Democrat who is a superdelegate that has already come out in support of Hillary Clinton.  This failure to remain neutral while the people decide who they wish to represent them is no longer acceptable.  It's not democratic; those people were elected to serve us in their respective legislatures and executive officees, not to pick our president for us.  (That's another preview of my forthcoming post on how you should consider casting your ballot in the Texas primary.)  Martin Longman of Booman Tribune and Washington Monthly further details why the superdelegates will derail, and not cross over to, Sanders ... which I covered last June.

I get so tired of explaining to Democrats why they actually lose elections.

And with respect to the tussle over the votes of people of color, that is a very vigorous conversation being had as well.  It will determine the success or failure of the Sanders revolution.  The only two excerpts you need ...

"He's speaking our language," said Congressional Black Caucus Chairman G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.). Butterfield, who has endorsed Hillary Clinton, was on his way into the CBC's weekly meeting on Capitol Hill when he spoke with The Root. 

When asked whether he thought Sanders' critique was a broadside attack on President Obama's legacy, Butterfield emphatically said that he didn't think the criticism was directed at the president.  

"It's just political discourse," he said, smiling.

But there are clearly some feathers being ruffled. 

And ...

(Rep. Gregory) Meeks said that 90 percent of the 20-member board of the (Congressional Black Caucus)’s PAC voted to endorse Clinton, while none of the board members voted for Sen. Bernie Sanders and a few members abstained because they had not yet endorsed in the race. 

On the neutral list was Rep. James E. Clyburn (S.C.), the No. 3 House Democratic leader and  the most prominent South Carolina Democrat, who has since then said he is considering backing a candidate and that candidate, he suggested, is likely to be Clinton. 

“That was certainly my intention,” he said in an interview with The Washington Post of his initial plan to remain neutral. “But I am re-evaluating that. I really am having serious conversations with my family members.”

I'll be watching and Tweeting tonight with all of this as the backdrop.

More on New Hampshire and the primary races ahead

-- Gadfly reminds that Bernie and Hillary debate again tomorrow night, and the Republicans again on Saturday night.  Nevada Democrats caucus on February 20, the same day South Carolina Republicans vote in their primary.  Nevada Republicans caucus on Tuesday, February 23, and South Carolina Democrats vote on Saturday, February 27.  And Texas Democrats and Republicans begin voting next Tuesday, the first business day after Presidents Day, and finish early voting in the March 1 primary on Friday, February 26.

-- Also a reminder that it gets harder for Bernie from here on, and Transgriot explains why (a topic I first wrote about in June).

-- Trump crushed it in New Hampshire with every single Republican demographic.

According to exit polls, Trump, who won New Hampshire with 35 percent of the vote, carried nearly every group with double digits. He won older voters and younger voters. He won people who care about "the issues," 37 percent to 13 percent, and people who care about leadership, 31 percent to 20 percent.

Trump won rich voters and poor voters, conservative voters and moderate voters. He won evangelical Christians — Cruz's base. He won voters with a college degree — who voted for Marco Rubio in Iowa.

He won voters who made up their minds on Tuesday, and he won those who made up their minds months in advance.

And in most cases, when Trump won, he won by a crushing margin.

Since his feet are bulletproof, you can safely expect -- barring the most unforeseen of circumstances -- that he is going to be the GOP nominee.

-- If the same is true of Hillary Clinton (and I still believe it is) then there is no room for a Michael Bloomberg or a Jim Webb candidacy between those two.  Right, far right, and fascist is no way to motivate an electorate.  This is the promise of both Bernie Sanders' revolution, and once the superdelegates close him out (even if he can find his way to beating Clinton in Nevada, and holding her victory margin close in South Carolina) the opportunity rises for the Green Party to build itself a bigger, broader base.

Gadfly believes if Sanders shows enough momentum that the SDs will come over, as they are 'unbound'.  This demonstrates a lack of understanding about Democratic Party politics, and I'm going to reveal it when I finally get finished with my post about the Texas primary elections.

-- Ted gets it wrong again.

Right after Iowa, the first polls in New Hampshire showed Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points. These two polls suggest the race might be tightening in New Hampshire. One has Sanders leading by 7 points, and the other has him leading by 10 points.

If Clinton can make the primary outcome closer than predicted (say 7 points or less), that could be considered a victory for her, since Sanders has been leading big for some time now in New Hampshire. -- [sic] and it could bode well for hr [sic] as she enters friendlier states.

Blinded by the blue light.

-- A few last words about Fat Bastard, Lobster Hands, and Marco Ruboto.

(Christie) invested more hours than anyone in New Hampshire outside of Kasich. He’s performed very well during every debate. He’s come across as likable, almost Jackie Gleason-esque, during every interview. But the fear of another shoe dropping in Bridgegate combined with an good-news-bad-news record in New Jersey was always Christie’s problem… along with that whole we-can’t-nominate-another-Northeastern-Republican-sentiment among the base (See: Romney, Mitt). In the end, Christie will always be remembered as the Jack Ruby of this primary season, because he was the guy who took Rubio out during that last debate without gaining anything out of it for himself. From the beginning, Christie attempted to portray himself as the tough, candid guy who can get things done. Problem for him was Trump already captured the starring bully role in the eyes of voters. 

Which brings us back to Rubio, who is officially now a caricature more than a candidate. He’s mocked by people dressed as robots at every campaign stop he makes. The media can’t mention him without referencing the repetition tick. Call it unfair for a few bad moments, but that’s how politics works… particularly in an age of social media when brush fires become uncontrollable wildfires in mere minutes. If this were another time, another campaign season, maybe Rubio recovers. But the moment Rubio shows any sign of life again, rest assured Trump will never allow him — and the media that covers his every word — to forget his new nickname: Marco Roboto. 

As for Kasich, it’s hard to see where he goes from here outside as the undisputed favorite to be a VP selection. Brit Hume said it best when once observing that the Ohio Governor was running to be president of New Hampshire (thanks to practically living in the Granite State for months while holding an impressive 107 Town Hall meetings). It’s been stated in this space before that Kasich is the most prepared, most experienced, best candidate running on either side right now. His approval rating in Ohio — a state that went twice for Barack Obama — sits at an astounding 62 percent. His record in both Congress and as governor around budgeting, deficit reduction, job creation, and attention/resources allocated to mental illness and drug addiction is unmatched by anyone left seeking to be president. 

But money and organization are important things, and Kasich doesn’t have much of either. Perhaps the Rubio money will go to him as that campaign continues to crumble. Perhaps those clinging to the idea that the Bush brand is still viable will finally come to their senses. But for now, Kasich goes to South Carolina with only a breeze at his back, and not the kind of gust it would take to bring down the big, bad wolf in Donald Trump… who leads there by 16 points in the Real Clear Politics average.

-- And these two hot shots from Nancy LeTourneau at Washington Monthly.

This is an even worse characteristic in a president than being a Marcobot.

[T]o those who have known him longest, Rubio’s flustered performance Saturday night fit perfectly with an all-too-familiar strain of his personality, one that his handlers and image-makers have labored for years to keep out of public view. Though generally seen as cool-headed and quick on his feet, Rubio is known to friends, allies, and advisers for a kind of incurable anxiousness — and an occasional propensity to panic in moments of crisis, both real and imagined.

[...]

When someone writes “Why the Working Class is Choosing Trump and Sanders,” it is important to start reading that as: Why the White Working Class is Choosing Trump and Sanders.

The new normal

We'll see how the revolution plays out over the next couple of weeks. With Bernie's blowout holding up -- almost 61% to her 38% -- the focus turns to whether Nevada and South Carolina, where more orthodox Democrats do most of the voting -- can be Clinton's firewall.

There's at least a hint that some reshuffling is coming (my emphasis).

By ABC NEWS ANALYSIS DESK Feb 9, 2016, 9:46 PM ET 

Sanders won women by 53-46 percent, as well as prevailing far more widely among men, 65-34 percent. Sixty-nine percent of women under 45 backed Sanders (including 82 percent of those under 30 women), while Clinton won women 45 and older by 56-43 percent.

By ABC NEWS ANALYSIS DESK Feb 9, 2016, 9:46 PM ET

Nonwhites roughly divided, 52-48 percent, Clinton-Sanders.

The Clinton campaign response to the shellacking:

Asked about polling data showing that Sanders had won independent voters by an overwhelming margin in New Hampshire, Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri was quick with a comeback.

“Most of the states we’re going to now, Democrats vote in them,” she said. “Not independents.”

Palmieiri -- unwittingly, I can only presume -- revealed Hillary's precise general election weakness with that statement.  Democrats don't win in November without young people and independents.

Citing the exit polls, which showed Sanders winning 83 percent of voters under the age of 30 and 72 percent of independents, (Sanders’ New Hampshire communications director Karthik) Ganapathy said he had “two takeaways” from Sanders’ performance in the Granite State (where “undeclared” voters are allowed to cast ballots in either party’s primary). 

“Young people and the independent, undeclared voters — they came out and they made the crucial difference in this election,” Ganapathy said. “People think they’re sort of unreliable. But they’re here and they’re voting.”

There is still a long way to go with regard to Latino and African American Democrats.  Clinton holds big leads in both the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary, but the latest polling there is quite old; the most recent conducted a week before before Iowa.  The news to anticipate in both states is whether there has been any movement.

As for the indies, they broke 42% Republican and 40% Democrat, with higher vote totals -- 216 K versus 242 K -- on the red side as well.  That worked out as well for Trump as it did for Sanders.  The Donald doubled up John Kasich, who placed second, with Bush, Cruz, and Rubio all bunched together in third, fourth, and fifth.

It's over for Fat Bastard.  His Saturday night beatdown of Marco Ruboto did not translate into any momentum; he ended the night with the sixth place ribbon at 7.5% and is going home to New Jersey to "take a deep breath".  Expect the JP to pronounce his campaign's death later this morning.

Trump and Cruz still look like the front-runners to me, with Rubio (or not) and Kasich and -- to a much lesser degree, Bush -- all fighting it out in Nevada and South Carolina.

Texas will have its early votes in the can -- historically about half the total -- before we know any results from the Palmetto State.  So trends and momentum are the thing to watch for in both primaries.

I swear I've got a Texas post coming.

Ted Cruz is NOT a pussy

Trust me on this, Donald.  He's just as big a bully as you are and he's got the mission-from-God stamp of approval to show for it.  Jeebus Christ on a Christmas tree crutch, what a pair of wads.

They're your co-leaders for the GOP nod after today, though, with the media piling back on the Trump bandwagon for ratings again, including those sad sacks at MSNBC.  That network's political coverage has been an absolute disgrace so far, and that's to say nothing of their shilling for Hillary.

John Kasich -- and not Chris Christie -- may pull an upset for second place, according to what I'm reading.  Even Jeb! may see a slight erection resurrection.  And when the Big Dog starts talking dirty, you know that the Clintons are mad at everybody again.

Marco Ruboto is toast.  Singed, but maybe not as Bernt as Hillary.  I've called it 55-42 for Sanders (lowering expectations a bit) and Trump 30, Kasich 15, Cruz 13, Bush 12, Rubio 11, and Christie 10. But you can shuffle those bottom four any way you like.

Update: read the Vox advance; they seem to be hitting the mark every time.

Here's your funny for today: the same two guys who heckled Jeb! are spotted in the camera shot behind Hilz wearing "Settle for Hillary" shirts.

Enjoy your Fat Tuesday.  I know that I am.

The Weekly Wrangle

In bringing you this week's blog post roundup, the Texas Progressive Alliance congratulates the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning for their Super Bowl victory yesterday, and thought the Snickers 'Marilyn' commercial was the best of the advertising.

Off the Kuff published interviews with three of the candidates who hope to succeed Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner in the Legislature.

Libby Shaw, contributing to Daily Kos, can’'t decide whether the junior U.S. Senator from Texas, Ted Cruz, more closely resembles former Senator Joe McCarthy or President Tricky Dick Nixon in his campaign tactics. The Texas Blues: Everything is Bigger. Especially the Tricksters and Their Sleazy Tricks.

Socratic Gadfly, while liking many things about last Thursday's Democratic town hall forum, regretted the missing foreign policy questions that likely won't get asked in ANY "mainstream media" debate.

"What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?" asked PDiddie at Brains and Eggs of a prominent national political blogger.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants everyone to know that South Texas people are waiting for clean water, too.

Nonsequiteuse has run away to join the circus. Or, gone to New Hampshire to meet the candidates.

Egberto Willies has the video of the presentation of Move to Amend's David Cobb at Kingwood College last week.  Cobb will be also appear in Houston this Friday evening.

Neil All People Have Value said we are not always best represented by people who resemble us in some superficial manner. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Scott Braddock reports on the latest attempt to move the Texas GOP even further to the right.

Glen Maxey dropped by Juanita Jean's to give an update on how the Democratic effort to get absentee ballots out to people is going.

Somervell County Salon has Hillary Clinton's Horrid Campaign Tactic O'Day: surrogates condemning women to Hell if they don't vote for her.

The Lunch Tray notes that Ted Cruz wants your kids to eat more French fries.

OutSmart salutes 10 black LGBT leaders in Houston.

Mary Flood calls for an end to judicial candidates spamming requests for favorable votes in the Houston Bar Association poll.

BOR implores us to support Rep. Jessica Farrar against her notoriously hateful non-Democrat primary opponent.

Grits for Breakfast makes an endorsement (of sorts): vote for the conservative judicial activist pro-Big Government vote if you're voting in the GOP primary.

Pages of Victory points out that failure is a right and not a privilege.

And Sharon Briggs writes an ode to Waco's Elite Cafe', which closed last week after nearly one hundred years of service.

Even Skynet is more self-aware than Marco Rubio

The most amazing part of last night was Rubio's audio program getting stuck in a loop.

Moments after the Republican debate ended Saturday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie walked over to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, shook his hand and offered some customary words of encouragement.

Rubio stared mutely back, looking flummoxed, Christie told close aides moments later according to one Christie adviser who was in the room. 

Christie and his team were buoyant after the New Jersey governor mauled Rubio in a one-on-one face-off in the first half-hour of the debate, repeatedly mocking Rubio for what he called his lack of experience and accomplishments. It was clearly a bad night for Rubio.

Didn't we see this in Westworld (the old one, with Yul Brynner)?  I mean to say, if Rubio really is a robot, would he sweat that much or have to break for a drink of water so often?

IIRC correctly, though, the robot won.  Mostly.  Not the case last night.

“Let’s dispel once and for all with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing. He knows exactly what he’s doing. Barack Obama is undertaking a systematic effort to change this country, to make America more like the rest of the world,” Rubio said. 

The moderators then turned to Christie to ask about his criticisms of Rubio’s experience. When Christie doubled down, Rubio returned to his line about Obama three more times. He kept repeating the comment even as Christie mocked him for resorting to a “memorized” sound bite. 

“You see, everybody, I want the people at home to think about this. That is what Washington, D.C., does: the drive-by shot at the beginning, with incorrect and incomplete information, and then the memorized 25-second speech that is exactly what his advisers gave him,” Christie said, as the debate audience began to roar.

Frankly I am sorry I missed the debate now.  This was Fat Bastard's moment in the GOP spotlight, and he made hay with it.  It's even a bigger beatdown than Debbie Wasserman Schultz took for Tweeting something Rubio-level-clueless about the scheduling of last night's debate.

Hmmm, wondering why @GOP trying to hide their #GOPdebate on the Saturday of #SuperBowl weekend no less?!

— D Wasserman Schultz (@DWStweets) February 6, 2016

As you might imagine, the social media Irony Tower came crashing down upon her head.

But even that wasn't as funny as this.



A comedy of errors. The real comedy, as it has been all season, was on Saturday Night Live, which had doppelgangers Bernie Sanders and Larry David talking about socialism errr, democratic socialism, on the Titanic.

Hey John: this is how to be funny.  You're failing.

Super Sunday Funnies

You know that “TrusTed” logo? The one with TRUS and TED merged, yet separated via different colors?

Turns out that when you Google “TRUS”, the logo at once becomes hilarious and hilariously appropriate:

"A transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) is an ultrasound technique that is used to view a man's prostate and surrounding tissues. The ultrasound transducer (probe) sends sound waves through the wall of the rectum into the prostate gland, which is located directly in front of the rectum."

Yup, that’s the very top Google result. Basically, it’s an anal probe. Which makes us even more certain that he’s actually an alien.

Well done, Ted!

The Republicans debate again tonight

I probably won't watch or Tweet any of it since there's an early Chinese New Year celebration, with dinner and a lion dance we'll be attending.  (I'm kinda Mardi-Graw'ed out after all these years.)

The Republican Party will hold its final debate before the New Hampshire Primary on Saturday night, Feb. 6. 

ABC will broadcast the contest starting at 8 p.m. ET, and will also live stream it on ABCNews.com, ABC News mobile apps, and through apps on Apple TV, Xbox One, and Roku, according to a spokesperson for ABC News.

ABC has extended invitations to just seven candidates: Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, Sen. Marco Rubio, Dr. Ben Carson, former Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. Chris Christie and Gov. John Kasich. 

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore did not receive invites, as they neither finished in the top three in the Iowa caucuses, nor the top six in a recent average of national or New Hampshire primary polls. ABC News stuck to its decision to keep Fiorina out of the debate, despite a public lobbying effort by the former technology executive in recent days to be included.

It's make-or-break time for a couple of guys.

Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie both invested time and money in Iowa. Together they got 5 percent. Christie said he had to do well in Iowa, which his campaign insisted meant that he had to finish ahead of the other governors. He did not do that, finishing ahead of only  Rick Santorum and Jim Gilmore. Bush spent a substantial amount of time in the Hawkeye State and thought he could get support from the network his brother and father had there. He did not get that support. At least Ohio Gov. John Kasich did not expend very much time or effort in getting just 2 percent in Iowa. 

The debate [...] may therefore be the last real shot for Bush and Christie to get into the race and reestablish themselves as something more than also-rans. It also will be critical for Kasich to remind New Hampshire voters that he is there and remains a viable candidate.

Let's say a soft goodbye to them both.  Kasich is still polling fourth, which means he's ahead of Jeb!, but that won't mean much after next Tuesday with southern and western primaries dominating Super Tuesdays ahead.  Christie faces another subpoena about Bridgegate, so if he manages to get into contention he'll still be damaged goods.  Bush's campaign is comatose and pathetic, but he apparently plans on being around for South Carolina because his brother is riding to his rescue.

I don't see anything developing here.  It still looks like Trump, Cruz, and Rubio -- in any order you like -- to be the remaining choices going forward.

The news post-Iowa is that Marco Rubio stole Ted Cruz's bounce.

Trump, by all indications, will return to the debate stage Saturday. We will see if the Iowa loss stripped him of any bravado or venom. Will he go right back after Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.)? That would be his natural inclination, but his arguments will have to be better than the birtherism canard. In some sense, both Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) have the same argument against Cruz: He is another slippery pol, tooting his own horn but as calculating and phony as the rest of them. Unlike Rubio, however, Trump does not need to show he is conservative enough for the GOP. His supporters by and large do not care what his ideology is; they want someone to show strength, candor, irreverence, and empathy for their anger and resentment. 

But married with Trump’s populist, less educated base of support is a certain sense of pragmatism — the opposite of Cruz’s appeal for rigid ideological purity. That contrast between deal-maker and enemy-maker should be on display at the debate Saturday. Cruz is right that Trump seems to have no governing vision. Trump is right that Cruz has little personal appeal and no sense of how to get things done. Between the two of them, they seem to embrace virtually every bad idea circulating on the right (e.g., protectionism, exclusion of immigrants, disregard for human rights) and every bad political trait of our times (e.g., anger, rudeness, dishonesty, lack of compassion).

Keep in mind all of these opinions belong to the WaPo's most Republican commentator, Jennifer Rubin.

If the GOP is gradually coming to its political senses, looking for an electable nominee and a plausible chief executive, this will be the week to knock out Trump and show Cruz has minimal appeal outside deep-red locales. Cruz’s support in Iowa came overwhelmingly from very conservative voters, about 44 percent of whom voted for him, and could get only about 19 percent of somewhat conservative voters and about 9 percent of moderates.That split works in the Iowa caucuses where  the most conservative voters predominate, but not in the majority of primary contests. Revealing him to be a rigid ideologue with very few answers for our problems should be the grown-ups’ focus.

I expect the vote next Tuesday to go pretty much how it's been polling: Trump in first, Rubio second, Cruz third, Kasich fourth.  My strongest recommendation is to go do something fun tonight, as we are, and then get ready for the Super Bowl tomorrow, and then go have a drink on Fat Tuesday rather than pay attention to election returns that evening.

It's time for me to blog about some local developments, such as the candidates on the Texas primary ballot and some other items closer to home.  That's coming up shortly.