Lupe's last stand?

Maybe.  While RG Ratcliffe's cowboys-and-injuns analogy isn't appropriate, Sheriff Valdez really does need to show out well this evening.

In an election year when no Democrat with statewide name identification stepped up to run, Valdez looked like an ideal party candidate—on paper at least. She had an impoverished childhood and made something of herself by attending college and obtaining a master’s degree in criminology. She rose to the rank of captain in the U.S. Army before starting a career with the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, then winning election as Dallas County sheriff in 2004 by defeating a Republican. She is also in a same-sex relationship.

A Hispanic gay woman in law enforcement who had proven herself in elective politics, Valdez seemed to have it all going for her. [...] everything except a knowledge of state government and seemed to lack a willingness to learn. Andrew White, a Houston investor and the son of a former governor, looked like he represented the Democratic Party of yore, not the new multicultural party. He finished a distant second in the primary voting, but then Valdez started stumbling. The party faithful began a debate over whether it is better to support a candidate like Valdez, who represents the party base, or a candidate like White, who might actually have a chance of defeating Abbott.

Let's set RG's record straight on a couple of things.

-- White has no chance of defeating Abbott.  None whatsoever.  Neither does Valdez, but she'll come closer than White in losing, and she helps the downballot by motivating the Latin@ vote.  White discourages D turnout over all.

We've been down this road before; with Wendy Davis four years ago, with another conservative Democrat named White before that, with a fake progressive named Chris Bell before that, and even with a wealthy Latino before that.  The blue share of the electorate has only gone in one direction over the past twenty years in midterm election cycles.  But hey, some Donkeys haven't figured out that's not working, so they're all in for Andrew.  I'm taking a hard pass, thanks.

-- That link above to the Facebook quarreling is full of the kind of Texas Democrats I have left in my rear view mirror, in both the TDP and the TPA.  Several of them used to blog but don't any more (rationales include 'blogging was so 2006' or '08 or so, among others).  The discussion, FWIW, centers around the contrasts between Lupe's competence and ability to turn out the vote versus White's, and which is more important in 2018.  As you have perhaps figured out, his competence compared to hers -- when neither stands a chance anyway -- is a non-starter for me.

This is not a debate between major contenders, though. (As of the last reporting period, Valdez had $57,000 in the bank; White, $1 million; and Abbott, $41 million.) Texas Democrats have the longest partisan losing streak in statewide elections of any party in the nation. With tens of millions of dollars at his disposal, Abbott has little to worry about from either White or Valdez, but if Valdez does not improve, if she does not study the statewide issues, if she continues to stumble, she could lead the party’s down-ballot candidates into defeat with her. 

Yeah, no amount of money on God's green Earth, Hell's half-acre, or the dry, parched ground out in Doss, where Mike and Mary Porter raise cattle, is going to knock Abbott out of his wheelchair off his high horse this year.  Good Christian folk like the Porters will see to it.

My option in November (I've said it before, but I guess Gadfly didn't hear it) is Janis Richards, if she gets on the ballot.  Anybody got a status update on the Texas Greens' ballot signature petitions?  If my counting is accurate, 75 days from March 13 leaves us at Memorial Day weekend, about two weeks away, depending on how holidays are counted.  The GPTX needs slightly over 47,000 signatures from registered voters who didn't cast a ballot in either primary nor participate in the Libertarians' nominating convention process.  I don't see any recent updates to the party's website or Twitter feed with respect to an update, a request for help gathering sigs, or much of anything else.  And I don't do Facebook any longer.  If there's news there, or anywhere else for that matter, someone post it in the comments.

If Richards -- or an independent or party-affiliated progressive option -- is not on the November ballot, I'll probably be forced to undervote the race.  But I might be persuaded to vote for Valdez if she can acquit herself well tonight and going forward.  I still think she'll be the nominee regardless, mostly because the more I read of White, the lousier he seems.

Update: Tonight's debate is viewable live only in the San Antonio and Austin markets.  If you live in H-Town or elsewhere, you can livestream it via KXAN at this link.

Texas Democrats: Black and blue? Or just blue?

The following arrived in my inbox last Monday morning, from TSU professor, attorney, past Houston and Harris County elected official and several-times political candidate Carroll G. Robinson, under the header "Black to Blue in Texas 2".

If Democrats are going to turn Texas Blue in November, they will need strong Black voter turnout and right now there is nothing driving that turnout.

During the March Democratic Primary and May Run-Off, no statewide Democratic candidate invested significant financial resources with Black media - Radio,Newspapers, or cable stations such as BET, OWN or TV ONE - to introduce themselves and share their policy positions and commitments with Black Texans. That was a mistake.

Statewide Democratic candidates need to start introducing themselves broadly to the Black community now. Waiting until the Fall is going to be too late. There is just not enough time between Labor Day and the start of Early Voting, by mail and in person, to have voters get to know a candidate and their policy positions, especially when the candidates are being attacked in negative ads on TV, radio, in the mail and by auto-calls and emails.

For Democratic candidates, reaching out to Black voters now and caring about the issues of importance to the Black community across Texas is not pandering; it's the right thing to do. It leads to good public policy and it's good politics.

To generate strong Black voter turnout (and avoid a drop-off) in November, the Texas Democratic Party and Beto O'Rourke are going to have to invest in promoting the Black Women candidates running statewide and the Black candidates running for Congress, the Texas Legislature and county offices across our state.

Black voters, like many other voters, are going to need more than just being against Trump to turnout in record numbers in November.

Beto and all the Democratic candidates for Congress should do a group 60 second TV commercial built on the message that electing a Texas Democratic Congressional Delegation would be electing candidates that look like and represent the interests, issues and concerns of all of us in Texas.

Black voters must know that their issues and concerns are being addressed and that they, their communities and the candidates of their choice are being "respected, included and invested in."

The Texas Democratic Party slogan for 2018 and moving forward should be "Making Texas Better...for All

This, as regular readers know, has been an occasional topic mentioned in this space (most recently at the bottom of this post), so while I can't call myself a fan of Robinson's, he's making a very important point that Lone Star Donkeys had better hear as they move toward their state convention, in Fort Worth in late June, and on to November.

I'm thinking Robinson's 'demand letter' styling above isn't going to be met with a receptive audience, but even if the wrong messenger is communicating the right message too aggressively ... the threat of black Democrats sitting out another election is not too cool to contemplate.

[I could write a long and separate post about what it would take for Democrats to re-energize black turnout.  After all, they saved Alabama for Doug Jones.  But Jones has already bitten the hands of those who cast their ballots for him, a warning that the sage of hoops, Charles Barkley, issued on the night Jones won.  More recently, when Chance the Rapper responded to Kanye West's coming-out as as a Trumpet, Chance's point was clarified by Brianha Joy Gray at Rolling Stone (recently named political editor at "something called" The Intercept).  Her piece is worth the full read.

There is ... a significant group of unreservedly enthusiastic supporters for a third party challenge. To those disillusioned by both sides, it's clear that the long-term benefits of breaking up the two-party system outweigh the short-term harms of a spoiler election: Even if a third-party were to split the vote, the loss would force the Democratic Party to pay attention to the needs of all its voters.

While this argument can, at times, bear the mark of privilege, its critics tend to forget the visceral human consequences of "incrementalism" – the gradual change traditionally advocated by establishment figures – even as they rightly fear the potential havoc of conservative leadership. The "fierce urgency of now" that motivates third-party advocates, those undeterred by the possibility of spoilers, is not merely about privilege – it's also the call of the institutionally ignored.

Clarifying his earlier tweets, Chance The Rapper, who made headlines last year for donating $2 million to Chicago public schools, explained today that his frustration with Democrats stemmed from the party’s lack of investment in his hometown: "My statement about black folk not having to be democrats (though true) was a deflection from the real conversation and stemmed from a personal issue with the fact that Chicago has had generations of democratic officials with no investment or regard for black schools, neighborhood[s] or black lives." After apologizing for the timing of his remarks, he went on to argue that "[w]e have to talk honestly about what is happening and has been happening in this country and we have to challenge those who are responsible, as well as those who are giving them a pass."

Yeah, her article is actually about Ranked Choice Voting.  It's a real thing.  This is officially a digression now, so let's return to where we began; Carroll Robinson's letter and his caution to Texas Dems: stop taking black votes for granted.]

And then yesterday morning, again via email, 2018 gubernatorial candidate Cedric Davis Jr. announced his challenge to Gilberto Hinojosa for the TDP chairmanship.  Here's the entire message he sent, introducing himself again (the audience is delegates to the party's convention).

The Democratic Blue Wave is sweeping across many states in our nation. I am excited to be a part of this energetic historical movement by the people to make government and party officials more responsive to needs and concerns of the people. After finishing third in the 2018 Democratic Gubernatorial Primaries, the level of energy of those looking to transform our state and nation to people-oriented governments is unmatched! That is why tens of thousands of Democrats around Texas has personally challenged and encouraged me to seek the chairmanship of our party. After considering the people’s challenge to me after the March primaries, I filed to run for Chair of the Texas Democratic Party. I am running to continue being a viable voice for those who have been disenfranchised, to continue bringing forth inspirational messaging, fight the Republican Leadership with new aggressive progressive strategies and tactics, and to ensure the Democratic Blue Wave finds its way to Texas!

I am a proud native of North Texas who is the father of five, a Desert Storm Veteran, an alumnus of Sam Houston University (B.Sc. CRIJ), and Tarleton State University (Graduate Studies in Public Administration). I am a Master Peace Officer, Police Instructor, and Investigator. I have served the public in a public safety and security role for more than 30 years. I currently teach pre-law, criminal justice, and law enforcement to the students of Garland ISD.

I have over three decades of political activism and community involvement experience as a North Texas political and community figure. I enjoy motivating individuals to be active on municipal, and state boards and commissions which also includes encouraging individuals to run for local and state offices. During the past three decades, I have had the pleasure of advising, managing, and assisting in fundraising for campaigns on the local and state level. I am proud to have served as Mayor of Balch Springs, Texas. As your Chair, I will work to help find a Chairperson for every County of Texas and find additional funding sources to support Chairs of rural areas with newer communication technologies such as current web-pages and universal Wi-Fi so our democratic messaging reaches the entire state.

As a former Mayor, Police Chief, School Board Trustee, and EDC Board of Director and many other community Boards and Commissions have made me viable and battle-tested in the importance of diversity in governance, education, and the workforce within our state and country. During our 2018 campaign travels around the state, we found many communities were more accepting to my presentation of new strategies and ideologies that would empower more Democrats into political offices, that would support current and new community and social programs, add job creation, encourage new voting blocks to become Democrats. Our message was embraced more often than none because I possessed the experience of being on the ground long before I ran for governor; that’s what mattered to the people. My public service leadership record of having a “Real Soldier” mentality when fighting for people and their community’s tower above the other candidates. I have been able to organize, moderate, and speak on issues of social justice and political empowerment with little to no resources. I plan to use my extensive experience to help our party unify our base of voters and energize new blocks of voters to elect Democrats across the state!

These are a few reasons why I believe African Americans, Whites, Latinos, Asians, Muslims, Women, Veterans, Teachers, and others of the poor and middle class have continued to support me in bringing their message forward. Because people prefer responsiveness and transparency over political games, I would be honored to have your vote at the 2018 State Convention. I look forward to talking to you soon!

Now Davis is somebody I do like, and not just because he's running against the worst TDP chair in a long list of bad ones.  This blog's second most-clicked post, with more than 13,000 hits, is about El Patron and his South Texas (alleged) corruption.

I would imagine some collection of Hinojosa stooges, perhaps including Puss in Boots Horwitz, is whipping the number of brown and black delegates to the June convention.  You can count two Caucasians from SD-13 in Davis' column.

Whether Davis prevails over Hinojosa or not, Democrats (not just in Texas, mind you) had better be paying attention to the message they're being sent.  It ain't just black voters -- though this caucus is the most critical to their 2018 blue wave hopes -- and it damn sure ain't "Not Trump".

The Weekly Wrangle

With this week's lefty blog post and news roundup, the Texas Progressive Alliance welcomes Governor Greg Abbott to the New McCarthyism, a domain of paranoia and fake news previously occupied exclusively by sullen Hillary Clinton bitter-enders.

Here comes the stampede!

Both Justin Miller and Chris Hooks at the Texas Observer piled on Abbott for Jade Helm.  Miller ...

For anyone with at least one foot planted in reality, it was clear that Jade Helm 15 wasn’t actually an Obama-orchestrated Trojan Horse meant to implement martial law in Texas, take away all the guns and lock up political dissidents in abandoned Walmarts. But that’s the narrative that was drummed up, supposedly backed up by a U.S. military map that depicted conservative states Texas and Utah in “hostile control.”

... then Hooks (defenestrating the former CIA director who made the claim).

It’s also the case that Hayden, who last held an official position in the American intelligence community in 2009, six years before Jade Helm, has no reason to know anything about this, unless someone who knows has told him. But Hayden doesn’t claim that — he uses words like “I’m figuring” and “I think.” It sounds like conjecture. And it’s also the case that Hayden is an inveterate liar. He was a top intelligence figure during the Bush administration, and has spent his retirement as an apologist for torture and mass surveillance. When the Senate torture report was finally published in 2014, the committee dedicated a special 36-page appendix to documenting the ways Hayden had lied to Congress in his official capacity. There is no reason to believe anything Hayden says about anything.

Abbott had a pretty bad week over all, as former US Rep. Blake Farenthold told him he wasn't paying for no stinking special election in TX-27, and then the gov'nah got caught in another hyperbolic half-truth by PolitiFact (in the San Antonio Express News) about the contards' favorite boogeyman, George Soros.

Some special election results include Martha Castex-Tatum's victory in a nine-candidate field Saturday to represent District K in southwest Houston, and the re-election of Lewisville's mayor, Rudy Durham, with a runoff slated between a current and a former city council member.

Meanwhile a runoff between two Republicans to complete the unexpired term in Texas House District 13 -- seven mostly rural counties between Austin and Houston -- will be held sometime this summer.  The Democrat came in third.  Former Grimes County Judge Ben Leman and Bellville businesswoman Jill Wolfskill are also in the May 22 runoff to fill the seat for the full term beginning in January, 2019.

In Euless, Salman Bhojani defeated a Tea Party candidate who was well-financed by maniacal statehouse Rep. Jonathan Stickland -- by just 37 votes -- for a seat on that city's council.  The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported that his opponent's campaign attacked Bhojani for being a Muslim and a "lifelong Democrat", among other terrible things.

Brains and Eggs isn't too excited about the gubernatorial debate coming this Friday night, and Kuff interviewed the Democratic candidates in the primary runoff for CD22, Letitia Plummer and Sri Kulkarni.

At the Kay Bailey Hutchison Coliseum in Big D, where protests outside ruled the day as the NRA's national convention raged inside, Stephen Young of the Dallas Observer donned his hazmat suit and went in to hear Wayne Pierre proclaim that the end of the world is nigh.

The Rag Blog has news about 'Rhapsody in Blue', a convergence of culture and resistance politics, happening this Thursday in Austin and jointly sponsored by Progress Texas and the New Journalism Project.  And Downwinders at Risk advances a fundraiser for cleaner air in Joppa, Dallas' most enduring Freedman's Town.

Ted at jobsanger -- who is an atheist -- found a poll that reveals most Americans of all religious persuasions object to the discrimination of LGBTQ people by commercial enterprises.

RG Ratcliffe at Texas Monthly considers two very different local responses to our state's Confederate history.

Whether they are destined to become pets, or boots, or meat in a market, Texas Standard reports that the smuggling of wildlife across the southern border is widespread, and most of the caimans, iguanas, and tigers that are are discovered entering Texas illegally are from Latin America.

Grits for Breakfast reminds us how shitty Ann Richards and Texas Democrats were on criminal justice issues back in the day.

Neil at All People Have Value offered his response to the note left on his car regarding his Democratic Socialists of America bumper sticker.

SocraticGadfly takes a break from politics to offer a salute to Astros nemesis and Rangers killer Albert Pujols on his 3,000-hit milestone.

And after a nearly-five-month blogging hiatus, Somervell County Salon returns with some Trump Swamp updates.

Sunday "Hush Money" Funnies

And from the Wayback Machine ...

A debate, finally

On a Friday night.  Before Mother's Day weekend.  Nice going, schedulers.

Lupe Valdez, Andrew White set to debate May 11 in Austin https://t.co/nbVTST1VIs pic.twitter.com/qsrxTWxdbQ

— Texas Politics (@DMNPolitics) May 3, 2018

This will work to Average White Guy's advantage, as Valdez -- I don't care for Gadfly's play on words w/r/t her name -- has demonstrated repeatedly she is not up to the task of running for statewide office.  She's not even able to defend her record adequately (whether or not it can be defended is a different story).  For that, just read Tilove's piece in the Statesman from Monday.  I'm excerpting from the middle so you might want to click over for the question she was answering in context.

Of course, look at me, I’m going to fight for as much immigration as I can.

One could fairly hear Abbott strategist Dave Carney’s  YEEHAH! echoing from his lair in Hancock, New Hampshire, off Skatutakee Mountain, the 1667 miles to Austin, Texas, above the low hum of Abbott Oompa Loompas working through the night to churn out a new line of 100 percent cotton T-shirts with an image of Lupe Valdez and the words, Of course, look at me, I’m going to fight for as much immigration as I can.

It’s not just that that’s not a policy. It’s that it’s exactly what Texas Republicans think, or their leaders would like them to think, is the actual Democratic thought process on immigration – fight for as much immigration as possible to help turn the state blue over time.

Two weekends ago, the last time I saw Valdez in Austin, she introduced her Abbott tracker to the crowd and then, after brief remarks, had this to say in answer to a question about debates.

Asked by a Democratic activist at a campaign event at North Austin brewpub Black Star Co-op on Friday night if she was going to debate White, Valdez replied, “I’m open to any kind of debate, but my staff are the ones who are going to take care of all of that.”

Pressed for a firmer answer, Valdez said, “You know there’s only certain decisions that they let me make, and most of them have to do with policy. … I can’t even tell you where I’ll be in the next few days. They’ll tell me. So they’re taking care of that.”

I can appreciate her candor and naivete', but the sad truth is that the Valdez campaign is a rocket that has exploded on the launching pad repeatedly.  Almost every single time it's been placed there.

Still ... no way I'll vote for White.  The 2018 gubernatorial race was not, has not ever been about winning; only about limiting the damage elsewhere.  White brings nothing to the table in terms of boosting blue turnout downballot, which is all Valdez can hope for in November.  More significantly, if the statewide ticket reads Beto O'Rourke, White, Mike Collier, Justin Nelson, Kim Olson, and a few token black and brown faces from there, then the over/under for Texas Democrats (other than those named Bob) moves from around 38% four years ago to about 35% six months from now.

Big Jolly's interview with Collier seems to recognize the lite guv challenger to Dan Patrick will have some ability to poach -- a word I like better than 'crossover' or 'split ticket', and a hell of a lot better than 'siphon' -- whatever exists of a moderate GOP persuadable caucus.  That aside, there are targets for the Donks that don't involve attracting so-called moderate Republicans (an oxymoron, IMHO): Olson could over-perform, especially with some party help, against Sid "Jesus Shot" Miller, and Nelson, were he to say something out loud about Ken Paxton's latest legal action, could start to move Latin@s in his direction.  But by holding their convention in Fort Worth (the most conservative urban area in the state, and the site of their 2006 conclave, which produced the second in a long line of losing streaks) Texas Democrats are happily giving the finger to the progressive base.  They're essentially trying to smother the state's left movement in its crib.  Having knocked the Greens off the ballot in 2016, there's no place for Lone Star progressives to go but for the lonely Democratic Socialist here and there.  (More on this later, when my carpal tunnel eases.)

There's more pain than just in my forearm over the past few weeks.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance urges you to exercise your freedom of electoral expression in ongoing special elections, and in the upcoming primary runoffs.

Here's last week's lefty blog and news roundup from around the state!

In lieu of any scheduled debates between Democratic gubernatorial sacrificial lambs competitors Andrew White and Lupe Valdez, some candidate fora happened during the past week where both were questioned about their campaigns and plans for the state.  At the Jolt Texas (Latin@ youth) convention in Austin, that organization endorsed White after Valdez "came across as ill-prepared or -informed", according to Patrick Svitek at the Texas Tribune, in explaining her record with ICE as Dallas County sheriff.  White and US Senate hopeful Beto O'Rourke came in for some tough questioning as well.  (Good on the Jolt Texans for doing the job that our state's corporate media -- taking too many campaign advertising dollars, or perhaps simply lacking the will -- can't get done.)

Neil at All People Have Value posted a picture of the violence initiated by HISD board president Rhonda Skillern-Jones against lawful and peaceful citizens advocating for Houston school children at a recent meeting, and Durrel Douglas at Houston Justice reported on the outcome of that meeting: the minority schools in question will not be loaned out for privatization.  And Stace at Dos Centavos saw the tactics employed by the board to silence dissent as the same old, same old.

In yet another example of the DCCC doing its best to purge progressives and support the most conservative of Democrats in contested races across the country, Lee Fang at  the Intercept talks to a CO-6 candidate who taped Steny Hoyer's obnoxious and condescending talk with him about not just exiting his race, but to hush up saying mean things about his corporate lawyer opponent.  (Shades of TX-7,  and TX-32, and other runoffs in Texas, as we know.)  Likewise, Amy Bolguhn at Rewire notes the DCCC supporting a New York Congressional candidate with poorly-reasoned views on reproductive choice.

With a searing and spot-on diagnosis of our ailing one-party-with two-sides political system, David Collins wonders if Medicare for All will cover post-Democratic Party rehab.

The Contributor links to the list of mayors of more than a hundred US cities -- including San Antonio's Ron Nirenberg, Austin's Steve Adler, San Angelo's Brenda Gunter, and Shelley Brophy of Nacogdoches, but NOT Sylvester Turner of Houston or Mike Rawlings of Dallas -- who support defending the open Internet as the deadline for repealing net neutrality approaches.

Speaking of Dallas, that city is simply not ready yet to remove its Confederate statuary.  Morgan O'Hanlon at the Texas Observer says that the city council has deemed the effort too expensive ... but wants to add a memorial to a victim of lynching instead.

Grits for Breakfast suggests there's a lesson to be learned for Texas legislators in a ruling of unconstitutionality of a revenge-porn statute by the Tyler-based 12th Court of Appeals.

Off the Kuff is all about the redistricting arguments at the Supreme Court.

SocraticGadfly offers up a profile of gadfly lawyer Ty Clevenger.

Elliott Morris at The Crosstab interprets the most recent Congressional special election results.

Sanford Nowlin at the San Antonio Current has some fun with Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale's rants about the Alamo City bidding for the 2020 GOP convention.

Better Texas Blog brings good news and bad news on family planning.

Texas Living Waters Project wonders if reservoirs are an outdated approach to meeting the state's water needs, just as the Texas Standard reports that a majority of the Lone Star State has slipped into drought status.

In examining the recent and unanimous vote to allow a homebuilder to begin construction in one of the Bayou City's floodplains, Chelsea Thomas at Free Press Houston reveals the hypocrisy downtown on Bagby.

Earlier this week, Houston’s City Council unanimously voted to give Arizona-based real estate developer Meritage Homes and Houston-based land developer MetroNational the ability to create a Municipal Utility District for a proposed development deep in North Houston’s most-recently ravaged floodplain. Why? Because Harvey apparently taught us nothing, politicians are afraid of losing development dollars, and Houston is a flat, bleak expanse that only beige sprawl-burbia will improve.

The worst part about this whole thing? It was sort of unavoidable. Disapprove and the developers build even more recklessly, approve and it’s reckless anyway. It’s an example of floodplain catch twenty-two. We disapprove, and previously-inundated homes are destroyed once again. Approve, and it’s a subtle dog-whistle to corporate developers Houston’s still a zone-less free-for-all and will allow your McMansion bullshit as long as you keep money in the coffers.

  
The Rivard Report blogs the sounds of San Antonio's Fiesta celebration.

And Harry Hamid took a field trip with Blind Father Tom underground; underneath the seminary.

Sunday Funnies

(Not a Joke)

NOT the White House Correspondents Dinner ...

The Weekly Wrangle

With this week's lefty blog post roundup, the Texas Progressive Alliance won't be flying Southwest Airlines for awhile.  Not even for five grand in cash and another G in flight vouchers, thanks.

In that *ahem* spirit, Socratic Gadfly looked at Southwest's fatal engine blowout and sees it as a continuation of past bad practices

High Plains Public Radio reports -- and links to more in the Houston Chronicle ($) -- regarding the Texas gerrymandering lawsuit, with opening arguments before the Supreme Court this morning.  The Texas Observer posits that disgraced former Congressman Blake Farenthold was one of the undeserved beneficiaries of those goofy, and possibly illegal, maps.  And Alexa Ura of the TexTrib, at the SCOTUS today, has the explainer.  (Three weeks ago she reminded us why this 7-year-old-saga has everybody angry.)

To commemorate Earth Day, Texas Vox participated in EarthX in Dallas, with a seminar conducted by Public Citizen's David Arkush, called "Wake Up and Smell the Carbon!"

With the Ted Cruz-Beto O'Rourke faceoff taking center stage, Jonathan Tilove at the Austin Statesman's First Reading broke down some of Cruz's bellicose verbiage.  Off the Kuff analyzed that Quinnipiac poll, then scoffed at some of the more hysterical responses to it.  And Brains and Eggs recommended not betting on Beto this early.

Ted at jobsanger took the Q-poll's current affairs questions and bar-graphed them to reveal how Texas is s l o w l y changing into something a little less conservative.

 Ahead of Lewisville's municipal elections, the Texan Journal quantified the city's Power Voters.

In his weekly roundup of criminal justice news, Scott Henson at Grits for Breakfast collates the reports about the undocumented necropolis discovered at the shuttered state prison facility in Fort Bend County.

Here's a postscript to the closure of TDCJ's Central Unit in Sugar Land, which long-time readers will recall was the first prison unit closed in the Lone Star State since the founding of the (Texan) Republic. When Fort Bend ISD began preparing a portion of the sight for a construction project, they began unearthing bodies. Lots of them -- 22 as of when this Houston Chronicle story was written. These were inmates from the convict leasing era and later who worked for the Imperial Sugar Company as de facto slave labor through the early part of the 20th century. A cemetery on the prison site included only white inmates' remains, which led activist Reginald Moore to believe that black prisoners were buried in unmarked sites elsewhere on the grounds. Turns out, he was right. See related, earlier coverage from Texas Monthly and commentary from Grits. MORE: The number of unmarked graves discovered is now 79!

DBC Green blog took down Egberto Willies for that tired binary logic we've come to expect from Democrats with their blinders strapped on too tight.  He also posted Scott McLarty performing the same bodyslam on Robert Reich (who used the word 'siphon', as if elections were zero-sum.  Reich is too smart for such weak logic).

Dan Solomon at Texas Monthly reports on the the defamation lawsuits threatening the media empire of bombastic Infowars host Alex Jones, and Danny Gallagher at the Dallas Observer sees that Glenn Beck's company is tumbling down around him.

In book releases, Bud Kennedy at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram interviews Lawrence Wright, the author of the acclaimed God Save Texas.  And Gregg Barrios at the Texas Observer profiles Jorge Ramos and his manifesto for journalists.  Excerpt:

“If Trump was willing to eject a legal immigrant with a U.S. passport and a nationally broadcast television show from a press conference, he would have no problem expelling the more vulnerable immigrants from the country,” Ramos writes in his new book, Stranger: The Challenge of a Latino Immigrant in the Trump Era.

The morning after his ousting, Ramos’ fellow journalists criticized him. Politico’s Marc Caputo said Ramos was “explicitly advocating an agenda. Reporters can do this without being activists.”

MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough accused him of trying to garner “15 minutes of fame. … pretending he was Walter Cronkite.” Former Guardian columnist (now Intercept editor) Glenn Greenwald, however, defended Ramos: “Jorge Ramos commits journalism and journalists attack him.”

And Bob Ruggiero at the Houston Press has two book reviews on rock and roll: one about the Beatles, and one about the slow demise of Classic Rock, the aging Boomers' preferred genre'.

And with respect to Trump's border wall -- or maybe fence, Harry Hamid suggests that the details are best left to the imagination.

Sunday Funnies

Rest in Peace, Quaker Oats

Don't Bet on Bob just yet

I thought I would wait until the squealing about fundraising and polling died down before raining on the parade.  (I should add that YouGov has been in the field polling Texas races for about two weeks, perhaps longer, right down to my -- that would be TX-07 -- Congressional tilt, and those results should hit the media any day now.)  As we know, Quinnipiac from earlier this week showed the Rafael-Robert contest within the poll's margin of error.

As others have pointed out, registered voters ≠ likely voters, and O'Rourke still needs to lift his name recognition, ultimately with the dreadfully expensive teevee advertising buy.  Other shortfalls are mentioned by Justin Miller at the Observer.

Though he’s done a good job of shoring up support among Democrats — and the poll shows he has a substantial advantage (51-37) among independent voters — it looks like most Texans still have no clue who this guy is.

The poll also reinforces the critique that he hasn’t done enough to reach out to Hispanic voters. In the Democratic primary, he failed to win a majority of votes in more than half of the state’s 32 border counties. The poll finds that his support among Hispanic voters is 51-33 percent, which is nowhere near as robust as it needs to be for him to pull off an upset.

I know a woman who could help him with his Latin@ outreach, but she's as perturbed as I am about one of recent votes.  You'll have to keep counting me in one of those two 1%s in the graph above.

Though it's Jim Newell at Slate that pops all the bubbles.

The gap between potential and likely voters in Texas is vast, and it’s particularly vast for the voters O’Rourke is relying on. Quinnipiac’s poll is weighted to the demographics in the state’s Census count, as is “protocol” for these early polls of registered voters, James Henson, director of the University of Texas–Austin’s Texas Politics Project, told me on Wednesday. That likely means that it over-counts Hispanic voters. Henson has seen this story before. “In Texas, Hispanic turnout -- and therefore Democratic turnout --is always lower than the weighted sample,” he said in an email. “It’s a standard dynamic here.”

The poll also showed noticeably liberal preferences among independents, even though Texas independents tend to be more right-leaning. Independents in Texas supported Trump over Clinton by 14 percentage points in 2016, according to exit polling, but the Quinnipiac poll found only 28 percent of independents in Texas approve of Trump compared to 64 percent who disapprove. Either that group is re-aligning fast, or a demographically weighted sample of registered voters isn’t giving a crisp preview of likely voter turnout in November.

“The particular confluence of voter turnout, state demographics, and party identification in Texas in recent history meant that Democrats at the top of the state ticket generally poll much better in April than they do in the vote count in November,” Henson said.

Texas political experts with whom I’ve discussed the race over the last few months -- regardless of their position on the political spectrum -- all express exasperation at the breathless coverage of O’Rourke’s bid, which treats his grass-roots campaign against Cruz almost as prophecy awaiting certain fulfillment.

The hype reached its first crescendo ahead of the March 6 primary. Early voting for Democrats had surged, especially in major metropolitan areas. In the top 10 most populous counties, early Democratic voting more than doubled while Republicans’ share increased only marginally.

But then Election Day came, and Republicans showed up. More than 1.5 million Republicans, or 10.12 percent of registered voters, voted in the Republican Senate primary, while just over 1 million, or 6.8 percent of registered voters, voted in the Democratic Senate primary.

This isn't even the worst news.  The worst is the reality: Texas is still baboon's-ass red.

The overhyped media coverage leading into the primary obscured the real gains Democrats might be making in the state. “If you strip away the unrealistic expectations, this will probably be a good cycle for the Democrats, one of the best they’ve had in a long time,” Henson said. “But it’s kind of hard to write a headline, to build a narrative, whether you’re a reporter or a Democratic fundraiser or candidate recruiter that says, ‘Democrats: Inching Back from Near Death.’ ”

And inching back from near death is a far cry from beating Ted Cruz.

[...]

The Cruz campaign sees Texas as rigidly red with few persuadables among likely voters.

“Basically every quarter, we score the voter file … using predictive analytics and a series of algorithms we built out over the state of Texas going back to 2012,” Cruz’s pollster, Chris Wilson, told me in an interview shortly after the primary. “And every quarter, the file is more Republican than it was the prior quarter.”

To give you a sense of the granularity through which the Cruz campaign is looking at the data and targeting voters accordingly, Wilson, who’s also the pollster for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, shared a figure with me.

“I’ve already built out the models for the fall, the general election,” he said. “And I can tell you that as of today, there are exactly 2,068,746 voters in Texas that do not currently plan to vote, but if they did vote, would vote for Greg Abbott. And they’d vote Republican.”

In order to win, O’Rourke needs to accelerate one aspect of very recent Texas political history—Republicans’ weakening in major metropolitan areas—and defy the low-turnout trends that have doomed other recent, initially optimistic efforts to “turn Texas blue.”

For the former, as Henson put it, O’Rourke needs to “hasten the decay” in the “inner suburban rings where there are some signs of the decay of previous Republican advantages.” That decay, he says, is probably “slightly more prosperous minority voters that you want to get to vote,” along with swaying “upper-middle-class Latinos that are voting Republican.”

I asked him about another demographic that Democrats are always eager to predict as a just-around-the-corner en masse defection from Donald Trump’s GOP: Republican women. Henson shared with me some recent polling results of Republican women that showed only 29 percent of them had a favorable opinion of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and that a plurality felt the recent attention towards sexual harassment was leading to the unfair treatment of men. Similarly, only 17 percent viewed the #MeToo movement favorably.

“Republican women are not very persuadable,” Henson said.

I am of the opinion that -- other than Ted Cruz, of course -- the TexTrib's Evan Smith is the biggest prima donna in the Lone Star State.  That doesn't make him wrong.

“I believe there are probably enough people who identify as Democrats or progressives in Texas that if they all turned out to vote, you’d have competitive elections,” Evan Smith said in the Vox interview. “And if I were 6 foot, 8 inches, I’d be playing basketball for the New York Knicks.”

Also this from Smith:

The #tx2018 #txsen race laid bare:@BetoORourke is running against @POTUS@tedcruz is running against @NancyPelosi
This is gonna be fun #txlege https://t.co/HuYSRNThgQ

— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) April 20, 2018

You may have already seen in the Q-poll data that Texas voters won't be casting their ballots as a referendum on Trump. If you didn't, here you go.

President Trump will not be an important factor in their U.S. Senate vote, 43 percent of Texas voters say, while 26 percent say their vote will be more to express support for Trump and 27 percent say their vote will be more to express opposition.

Finally there's the money, and I'm not talking about the PACs O'Rourke claims he doesn't use (a poor prevarication) and the ones Cruz will have coming to his rescue if the race actually does show close later in the year.  Greg Abbott is leading both Average White Guy and Lupe Valdez by a comfortable margin and sits on a $45 million wad, with more at his fingertips to rake in.  If Lyin' Ted is actually in trouble, Abbott will shoot that wad all over the state's broadcast media to ... you know, turn out the baboons.  More bad news: Ted is running scared, so he's scaring the base and pandering to Trump.  This is what happened when Texas Democrats cackled with glee about the March early voting numbers.  The TXGOP is like sheep, or lemmings, or cattle; spook 'em and they stampede.

The TDP could always hire a duck to follow Ted around, I suppose.

The over/under for the US Senate race, IMO, remains 60-40 Cruz.  Democrats would be wise to focus on the Lite Guv race -- Big Jolly thinks there's some GOP persuadables there, FWIW -- or the Ag Commissioner's race (why isn't Kim Olson mentioned anywhere?  Ever?)

If the Texas Democratic ticket goes with Blue Dogs O'Rourke, Whiter Than White, Mike Collier, Justin Nelson ... where's your progressive base vote going to be?  Where's the African American and Latin@ turnout going to be?  To that question, I just don't think Joi Chevalier, Miguel Suazo, Roman McAllen, and the truly outstanding and diverse statewide judicials are enough to get it done.

Rest in Peace, Quaker Oats

(Oh come on; Glenn Beck started it.)

You know what Mom said about not having anything nice to say about someone, so here's Bar in her own words.  I'm sure you will recognize them.

-- Inside the Astrodome following Hurricane Katrina, 2005

"Almost everyone I've talked to said we're going to move to Houston. What I'm hearing, which is sort of scary, is they all want to stay in Texas. Everybody is so overwhelmed by all the hospitality. And so many of the peoples in the arena here, you know, they're underprivileged anyway, so this -- this (waves arm; chuckles slightly) is working very well for them." 

-- About her son's decision banning television cameras from showing flag-draped caskets carrying US soldiers killed in Iraq returning home, 2003:

"But why should we hear about body bags, and deaths, and how many, what day it’s gonna happen, and how many this or what do you suppose? Or, I mean, it’s, it’s not relevant. So, why should I waste my beautiful mind on something like that?"

-- Her opinion of Geraldine Ferraro, running mate of Walter Mondale, in 1984:

"That $4 million -- I can’t say it, but it rhymes with rich."

This piece, published in 2007 (the author passed a year earlier, so it would have been compiled from 2005 and earlier) details several anonymous accounts of the fear she struck in the hearts of many staff, media, friends, and others.  And if you think any of what I have posted here is mean, or rude, or inappropriate, or untimely, you might read what the denizens of Breitbart are saying (don't worry; this link doesn't go to Breitbart).

And I certainly wasn't as snarky as this.  Excerpt:

Eyewitnesses say they saw Mrs. Bush having a great time for many hours. Her number in line was then called, and Mrs. Bush went into an office to meet with her timeshare consultant. Mrs. Bush was last seen headed toward the Mothers of War Criminals wing of a lovely apartment overlooking a beautiful, fiery lake.

The Weekly Wrangle

Even as missiles flew into Syria, Trump attorney Michael Cohen was raided by the FBI (precipitating a tense political drama that may yet result in a Nixonian 'Saturday Night Massacre', version 2.0), Paul Ryan abruptly quit his job, Mark Zuckerberg testified before Senate and House Congressional committees -- whose members demonstrated a laughable degree of technological cluelessness -- and James Comey released an explosive book about his dealings with Trump ... there was other news of importance happening around the Lone Star State, and the Texas Progressive Alliance's blog roundup has it here for you.  Set aside your double nothingburger with extra nothing and read some non-fake news.

Following up on developments reported in last week's Wrangle, the NRCC is starting to freak out about losing deep-red House districts in the November midterms.  Down With Tyranny begins with the latest on Texas 27 ...

(Last)Thursday evening the Houston Chronicle reported that when Blake Farenthold slithered out of Congress last week, he did so without repaying the $84,000 he stole from the taxpayers to cover up the charges that he had sexually harassed a female staffer. He had promised he would repay the stolen funds -- and he's a multimillionaire. The GOP-led House Ethics Committee is demanding he pay back the money, as are (retiring) Speaker Paul Ryan and NRCC chair Steve Stivers. His very gerrymandered district (TX-27) has a PVI of R+13 and gave Trump a 60.1% to 36.5% win over Hillary. But this is precisely the kind of district the NRCC is starting to worry about. Two Republicans are locked in deadly runoff combat for the nomination, Bech Bruun and Michael Cloud. (Two Democrats, Roy Barrera and Eric Holguin, are in their own primary runoff for the seat.) As of the February 14 FEC reporting deadline, neither Bruun nor Cloud was in good shape for what could turn into a competitive race. Bruun has $84,497 in his campaign account and Cloud has only $12,127. Holguin had only $2,413 and Barrera had nothing at all.

... and wraps up with Texas 36.

No one imagined Republicans in deep red districts like Virginia Foxx (NC-05), Trey Hollingsworth (IN-09), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), Peter Cook (CA-08), Devin Nunes (CA-22) and Brian Babin (TX-36) could be on slippery ice but all 6 and dozens of others in red, red districts are.

[...]

Dayna Steele is urging progressives outside of (TX-36) to adopt a red district. "So many of you are in districts that would elect a Democrat even if no one was running. Find the reddest district in your state or find the reddest district in the country or find the reddest district in Texas, like mine. Adopt a candidate in a red district and do everything you can for them, like call banking and fundraising (which is virtual now). You can adopt me here."

Immigration reporting took the lead in many Texas news sources.  First, Leif Riegstad at Texas Monthly reports that ICE will stop releasing pregnant women from immigrant detention facilities in order to comply with a Trump administration directive issued last week.

ICE’s detention facilities are notorious for offering poor health services to detainees. The facilities are often kept so cold that aluminum coated blankets are given to detainees and immigrants have begun calling the facilities hielera, which means cooler in Spanish. Twelve detainees died in ICE custody in 2017, the deadliest year since 2009. One hundred seventy-nine people have died in ICE detention since 2003. Report after report from immigrants’ rights watchdog groups have been critical of ICE’s ability to provide health care to detainees. Last year, the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of the Inspector General conducted surprise investigations of five detention facilities across the country, and found “significant issues” in four of those facilities, including poorly documented medical record keeping, dirty or insufficient hygienic supplies, and long waits to receive medical care for detainees suffering from painful conditions, like infected teeth and an injured knee.

Stace at Dos Centavos gets harsh at some unidentified elected and activist Democrats for being passively supportive of Trump's -- and Obama's -- immigration crackdown, and suggests he might be more specific about who before the runoff elections in May.  Ed Darrell at Millard Fillmore's Bathtub posts a Tweet link to the NYT story about the myth of the criminal immigrant.  And Houston Public Media reports on a new project to offer legal defense to immigrants facing deportation getting under way in the Bayou City.

Gus Bova at The Texas Observer exposes the charade of Greg Abbott's pandering to his conservative base by adding some hysteria to the call-up of the National Guard to the Rio Grande border, and Chellis Glendinning at The Rag Blog talks to an indocumentado about how he comes and goes, recording the stories he tells about the experience.

News Taco reports that the state Board of Education finally approved a curriculum for Mexican American studies, but it won't be called that because one Caucasian board member objects to, quote, "hyphenated Americanism".

 Off the Kuff casts a skeptical eye at a lawsuit filed against Dallas County claiming that white voters are being discriminated against.  Jim Schutze at the Dallas Observer has an opinion on CPPP's report on inequality in Dallas, alleging that it might be a failure of leadership as well as a lack of will to do anything to rectify it.  And Edgar Walters at the Texas Tribune writes about the ten-year stall in Galveston public housing reconstruction after Hurricane Ike; "our own form of apartheid", one activist says.

Neil at All People Have Value wrote an open letter to Democratic Party leaders about the need for an assertive response to any effort by Trump to curtail the Mueller investigation.

Midlothian rancher Sue Pope and her group Downwinders at Risk made the last contribution from the pollution reduction fund bearing her name -- created as a result of litigation against a DFW cement company -- to special needs education programs in her local school district.

Better Texas Blog criticizes the latest farm bill coming out of Congress, calling it flawed and suggesting it won't help feed Texas families.

Grits for Breakfast has a modest proposal for Texas counties that complain about the cost of indigent defense.

Mark Bennett explains why -- as with driving, sending an email, or retiring for the evening -- you should never argue while angry.

Pages of Victory reprints an article from the Ghion Journal about war, the wealthy, and the ideology  of death.

At the Texas Green Party's annual convention in Houston, new state officers including co-chair Joy Davis and treasurer Alfred Molison were elected, and party business was conducted as efforts to achieve 2018 ballot access continued.

In sporting news, SocraticGadfly wonders if Kawhi Leonard has already played his last game for the Spurs, and "Cablanasian" Sean Pendergast at the Houston Press sees Houston Texan players stepping up their Dez Bryant recruiting efforts.  And Mike McGuff made it inside the Astrodome for one last look around before the underground parking lot construction work begins.

And Harry Hamid reminds you that your personal online data is as secure with him as it is with Mark Zuckerberg, and wants you to answer a few questions to demonstrate it.