Mark Jones tries to take down Wendy Davis

And fails. As usual.

Since her filibuster on June 25, activists, politicians and pundits within and outside of Texas have been discussing a possible 2014 gubernatorial bid by state Sen. Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth. However, beyond her pivotal role in temporarily derailing a strict omnibus anti-abortion bill and her compelling life story, most Texans, let alone most Americans, know little about Davis. An analysis of her voting record on the Senate floor helps partially fill this informational lacuna, highlighting that during her tenure Davis has been one of the Texas Senate’s most liberal members.

Now you can click over and read Jones' data and interpretations for yourself, but you don't have to possess a doctorate to recognize political quackery disguised as political science. Just use Dr. Jones' own figures.

Jones asserts Wendy Davis is the 4th most liberal senator, and then charts a voting record that is all but identical to six of her colleagues. His words: "Her ideological position is statistically indistinguishable from that of the other six Democratic senators."

So if that's true, what weight is given data that makes her fourth most liberal and not one of the 6 others? By this same measurement, Jane Nelson -- yeah, that Jane Nelson -- is the 4th most conservative state senator, more so than Troy Fraser, Tommy Williams, Glenn Hegar, and Bob Estes. And every Republican in Texas is laughing out loud right now. Update II: In preparing my personal legislative scorecard at the Texas Tribune, Nelson was the Republican whose votes I agreed with the most often (a stunning 86%).

And if you have a bias hiding somewhere in the numbers that's so obvious that I can see it.... why are you even trying to hide it?

This is called cherry-picking... and then making Robitussin with the cherries instead of wine. Jones has hacked up a "too-librul" furball and needed some cough suppressant.

To be clear, I have excoriated Dr. Jones and his opinions more frequently in this space than even I had thought. Here's what I wrote two years ago when he suggested that the defeat of sanctuary cities bills in that legislative session was a "strategic victory" for Rick Perry. Jones was eventually compelled to back up and rewrite on that, and I kicked him while he was down. In searching for those I found about ten more posts eviscerating the good doctor. And when I say 'eviscerate', I mean his lower GI tract was removed and replaced with PVC pipe.

I stopped reading his dreck a while back because the sniffs I heard at the end of every sentence were just too obnoxious to endure, but I gave him another chance recently when he appeared on teevee with Khambrel Marshall and David Big Jolly Jennings. I couldn't make it to the end of the broadcast without calling my dentist to schedule a gum-scraping. I figured that would be less painful.

I am not joking; compared to Mark Jones, Marc Campos has searing political insights -- and real keen baseball knowledge, too.

Anyway, Jones buried the lede.

Paul Burka, Patricia Kilday Hart, Ross Ramsey and others have identified multiple hurdles Davis would face were she to run for governor in 2014. To those I would add one more: Davis would be competing for statewide office in what is still a very red state with the legislative voting record of a relatively liberal Texas Democrat.

Well knock me over with a feather: Texas is as red as a baboon's ass in heat and hasn't elected a statewide Democrat in a generation. And Wendy Davis is a Democrat. You don't think the past might be prologue, do you? Let's gather some data and plot a graph.

(This baloney makes almost as much sense as the TexTrib's own polls. Yeah, I've blogged about those too until I'm tired of doing so. They're so mad at me they don't link over here any more.)

Dr. Jones should have simply saved himself the trouble and just gone all Ronald Reagan "librul-librul-librul" on Sen. Davis. He could have at least updated Reagan's smear with some of Rush Limbaugh's or Ann Coulter's spew; they've both made fortunes off that 'Liberals-R-e-VILL!' schtick. But I suppose he thinks what he's doing isn't the same thing.

Actually, it is. Calling someone the "most liberal senator" was the very first argument made against both John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008, and Jones knows it's a dog whistle only right ears can hear. But he had to go and ruin his credibility again. 

I have a hard time believing that Rice University cannot do better than this in the poly-sci department, and that's even if they wanted someone who was the academic equivalent of Karl Rove or Frank Luntz. Mark Jones must be tenured harder than the mortar between the bricks under the ivy. I'm guessing that without something that meets the definition of moral turpitude, they're stuck with him out there for another twenty-five years or so.

And I doubt that remains a long enough time for him to see any librul get elected governor of Texas.

Update: Greg has a similar opinion of Dr. Jones (it's more courteous than mine, but still pretty harsh on his figures and his conclusions).

SD-6 developments (that mention Keystone XL)

The Chron catches up with the SD-6 special, just in time for early voting (beginning tomorrow).

With eight candidates in the race in an overwhelmingly Democratic district that includes Houston's East End, the race is likely to come down to a battle between two prominent Democrats, state Rep. Carol Alvarado, whose House district overlaps much of the Senate district, and former Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia.

Also running are R.W. Bray, the Republican candidate who lost to Gallegos last fall; Democrats Susan Delgado, Joaquin Martinez and Rodolfo "Rudy" Reyes; Republican Dorothy Olmos; and Green Party candidate Maria Selva.

If a runoff is needed - and with so many candidates, one is likely - it will be held between Feb. 23 and March 9, with Gov. Rick Perry scheduling the exact date. 

Apparently Reyes is a Democrat after all, despite keeping that a secret on both his filing application and his website. The Chron's teaser headline on their home page prominently notes Delgado's former occupation. That really is cheesy of the newspaper of record. And judging by the posts from the Khronically Konservative Komment brigade, they took the bait the Chronic was chumming.

Mark Jones at Rice weighed in with his usual nothing.

The race features "a modest activist-versus-establishment dynamic, with activists leaning toward Garcia and the establishment toward Alvarado," said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. "The pattern is not, however, clear-cut, with many establishment Democrats supporting Garcia and many activists backing Alvarado." 

Thanks for clearing that up. The only real news in this entire article is this:

Among the state's 31 senate districts, this predominantly Hispanic district ranks last in the number of registered voters (284,000) and in 2012 voter turnout (138,000). Jones estimates that fewer than 1 in 10 registered voters and 1 in 25 district residents will cast a ballot.

So if Jones is correct, 28,400 +/- votes in total will decide the primary. Garcia, the presumptive front-runner, declared early on her intention to avoid a runoff; she said as much at the bloggers' luncheon she hosted a few weeks ago. So, by extrapolating... she needs 14,201 votes to accomplish that. (See, I can do math.)

She has certainly put a lot of feet in the street since this all started in early December, so that could happen. I just don't think it will. The other four Dems, the Green, and the two Republicans -- one of which got 29% two months ago against Gallegos -- only need to get the same 50% +1 to deny Garcia the outright victory. Twenty-nine percent has been the conservative base vote in the district for the past two cycles in which Gallegos stood for re-election. 2008 and 2012 were both high Democratic turnout years. Again, using Jones' projection... that works out to 8,236 Republican votes.

These SWAGs mean that Garcia needs to earn 14,201 of the remaining 20,164 (28,400 - 8,236) or 70.42%. In competition with five other Democrats/liberals/progressives.

I'm still betting the runoff is going to be between Garcia and Bray.

Selva, for her part, will make Keystone XL a campaign issue. From yesterday's press release...

The Keystone XL Pipeline public-relations campaign is sheer misinformation. Keystone XL proponents claim it will lower gasoline prices. In fact, its economic model will hike Canadian oil prices at the expense of American gasoline consumers. Anthony Swift, author of the Natural Resources Defense Council report (http://www.nrdc.org/energy/files/kxlsecurity.pdf), states that when TransCanada proposed the Keystone pipeline, they set it up to increase oil prices in the United States, thereby increasing profit for Canadian producers when they send their product to the USA. The pipeline would take Canadian oil normally destined for Midwest refineries—which produce gasoline for US use—and instead send it to Gulf Coast refineries for eventual export since it yields more profits abroad.

 I support energy independence for the USA. We will not achieve it by building pipelines that offer us nothing but risk while we route North American oil to overseas markets. There is no employment benefit for Houston in the Keystone pipeline. Supporters refer the the pipeline as a potential ‘job creator.’ The glowing job projections for the pipeline are overblown. The Cornell University Global Labor Institute studied the issue, and they concluded, “…the job estimates put forward by TransCanada are unsubstantiated and the project will not only create fewer jobs than industry states, but that the project could actually kill more jobs than it creates.” 

About the same time that was hitting inboxes, the Tar Sands Blockade protest at the Houston offices of TransCanada was under way.

Here's the live blogging from yesterday, including video and pictures from other direct actions around the country.

You probably won't see much corporate media coverage of the protests against KXL. The HouChron can barely be bothered to cover the special election, so don't expect their corporate overlords to do much more than this. This report from the NYT was the welcome and notable exception.

The development of Alberta’s oil sands has increased levels of cancer-causing compounds in surrounding lakes well beyond natural levels, Canadian researchers reported in a study released on Monday. And they said the contamination covered a wider area than had previously been believed.

For the study, financed by the Canadian government, the researchers set out to develop a historical record of the contamination, analyzing sediment dating back about 50 years from six small and shallow lakes north of Fort McMurray, Alberta, the center of the oil sands industry. Layers of the sediment were tested for deposits of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or PAHs, groups of chemicals associated with oil that in many cases have been found to cause cancer in humans after long-term exposure.

We will just have to wait and see if the issue resonates with the voters in SD-6.

Previous posts on the special election:

Alvarado declares for SD-6

Sylvia Garcia jumps in 

No Noriega(s) for SD-6 *with updates

Governor finally calls SD-6 special election 

Eight for SD-6 

Update: Kuffner adds some depth.

Update (1/13): "While solidarity actions were happening at the offices of TransCanada and its investors and contractors around the country, over a hundred blockaders took over the lobbies of two different TransCanada offices in Houston."

Oliver Pennington leaves Houston mayoral race

That's a scramble for those on the right.  Speaking of right, Mark Jones gets it for once.

The 75-year-old retired attorney's exit removes the candidate best positioned to secure conservative votes, said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. That could have a significant impact on a crowded race in which any candidate with a reliable base has a shot at earning one of two spots in the December runoff election that will surely follow November's initial vote.

The news is an obvious boon to Councilman Steve Costello and former Kemah mayor Bill King, Jones said, two centrist-to-conservative candidates who were set to spar with Pennington for the same supporters.

"There simply was not enough room for them to all three run and have a real chance of entering the runoff," Jones said. "Pennington had at least a potential path to the second round. But it would have been a very uphill battle to actually win a runoff because the characteristics that made him one of the more viable Republican candidates also made him less viable against a Democratic foe in a runoff."

That's it, except for the Bill King part IMHO. Unless potholes are already the Tea Party mantra, then I have him underestimated.  But it's the HERO development, also yesterday, that is the conservative mantle waiting to be picked up and used as a cudgel.

Opponents of Houston's non-discrimination ordinance failed to gather enough valid signatures to force a repeal referendum, a state district judge ruled Friday, validating city officials' decision to toss out the petition foes submitted last summer.

After separate rulings from both a jury and state District Judge Robert Schaffer, attorneys for both sides entered dueling counts of the valid signatures, adding and subtracting voters as Schaffer responded to motions. By early this week, the counts were closer together than ever before, fewer than 1,000 signatures apart.

Ultimately, Schaffer on Friday ruled the final count of valid signatures was 16,684, leaving opponents short of the threshold required in the city charter of 17,249 signatures, or 10 percent of the ballots cast in the last mayoral election.

"The jury's verdict and the judge's ruling are a powerful smack-down against the forces of discrimination and intolerance," said Geoffrey Harrison, lead attorney for the city, in a statement. "And maybe, just maybe, they'll reconsider their misguided ways."

Don't count on that.  Somehow "Not free to pee in safety" seems a more motivational war cry than "fix the potholes".  So we'll see how things go as Costello and King bid for the Steven Hotze/Dave Wilson caucus; maybe Pennington at some later point endorses one or the other to move the needle.  He's giving us a clue at the end of that top link.

"As long as two-thirds of our general fund budget is tied up by firemen and policemen's salaries and pensions, and when the main activity going on in addition to that, which is ReBuild Houston, is not delivering what it could deliver, I think there are improvements to be made," Pennington said, referencing the city's ambitious street and drainage repair program. 

ReBuild Houston is Costello's deal, aka (in conservative circles) as the 'rain tax'.  So that's slamming Costello a little bit.  And since all this news broke on a night when one of our seasonal toad-strangling rainstorms flooded several parts of the city, it seems like a topic we'll also be hearing more of.

Replacing Rodney Ellis in the state Senate

Kuff's on it, so is the Chron.  The contestants -- Borris Miles, Senfronia ("Mr. Tesla") Thompson, Ron Green and maybe Garnet Coleman and CO Bradford -- square off for preening before the SD-13 precinct chairs (my precinct chair gets a ballot) and early predictions are limited to 1) the vote will be closer than it was for county commissioner, and 2) we'll probably have a statehouse seat to do this all over again with.

Tonight's county executive meeting (all Harris D precinct chairs) to select a couple of vacant judicial bench nominees is prelude to the exclusive 94 who will select the person to replace Rodney Ellis in the Texas Senate.  In three weeks.

Update (7/1): the above sentence has been edited to explain the purpose of last night's meeting.

"Many of the candidates have complex political histories that could result in a high level of discord," Texas Southern University political scientist Michael Adams said. "I don't think these people are going to be playing nice."

Fun.  Appallingly, Mark Jones is correct again.

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones lamented what he described as a "less than democratic and less than transparent process."

"It's an unfortunate artifact of Texas election law that state legislators should look into next session," Jones said. "We have a special election process in place for officeholders who die or resign while in office. It would not be a bad idea to consider a similar method for parties to replace nominees."

Jones is not just acting like the Republican he is here.  Oligarchy is indeed a lousy way to run a democracy, and if any local Democrat also says so publicly, point me to it.  It's the kind of sorry crap they'd be the first ones to criticize the Harris County GOP over.  NOW you do understand why people say both parties are alike?

Update (7/2):  Chuck -- with no apparent clue that there might be something wrong with the process -- has the Chron's news that the 'special' election lost its two 'maybe' combatants, Coleman and Bradford, and is set for two Saturday mornings hence, July 16.

Dan Patrick: suicidal tendencies

I suppose the good thing is that this is all coming out now, so that Republicans can cast their ballots (early voting beginning Monday) with a clear conscience.

Insisting he was not there for psychiatric or emotional problems but "for rest," Patrick said in the deposition that he "slept, basically, for two weeks." He also said he had been hospitalized at another facility, Memorial City, in the early 1980s for "fatigue, exhaustion."

Other records show Patrick was admitted to Spring Shadows Glen for "severe depression" after reporting "feelings of worthlessness, helplessness, hopelessness and marked decrease of self-esteem."

That admission was directly related to a suicide attempt on Jan. 14, 1986, according to the records, in which he tried to overdose on an antidepressant medication and slash his right wrist before collapsing and being taken to a local emergency clinic. According to the records, Patrick reported "business and marital problems and difficulties in personal relationships."

Patrick "feels the solution of separation would be a failure and prior to his suicide attempts saw his death as a preferable solution," Dr. Stephen Kramer wrote in the document.

Patrick was discharged five days after being admitted, and his depression "decreased considerably and there was no evidence of suicidal preoccupations upon discharge," records said.

The documents also provide details on Patrick's stay at Memorial City, which lasted several weeks and was the product of "acute exhaustion" brought on by "feeling extreme pressure from his work as a tele­vision sports broadcaster."

Then, doctors determined his anxiety had decreased "to the point that it was felt he could return to his full-time work and be followed on an outpatient basis."

Good ol' boy Mark Jones at Rice, sticking up for his man.

"If anything, David Dew­hurst is only ensuring that Dan Patrick will win by a larger margin than he might have otherwise," said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor who has been following the increasingly ugly race. "This information humanizes Dan Patrick. I think the blowback against David Dewhurst over this will be pretty significant."

How do you feel about his chances in the fall, Dr. Jones? Will it be another Republican sweep? Or will you be trepidatious about his prospects among the general electorate?

Let's at least note that Jones is probably going to be right about the runoff outcome: hard-charging Patrick supporters will mobilize.  I don't think there will be all that much switching of votes among Dewhurst and Patrick, so the widest the margin will likely be is in the 60-40 range, Patrick over Dew, in line with the lite gov's defeat at the hands of Ted Cruz in the 2012 US Senate primary runoff (57-43).  Anything greater than that and Patrick can get enthused about the fall.  Even if the result is in the 55-45 range or closer, Patrick will (outwardly, at least) project humility in the righteousness of God and confidence of -- and gratitude to -- the GOP base, yaddayadda.

Oh, one more thing.

On May 30, 1987, Paul Harasim was a columnist for the Houston Post and Dan Patrick, between successful stints as a TV sportscaster and radio station owner/radio talk host, was the co-owner of several Houston sports bars, which didn’t prove to be very successful.

It was a little before midnight when Harasim and his wife, Maria Teresa Espinoza Harasim, arrived at one of these bars  - the Nice-n~E.Z Club. They had been invited guests to the grand opening and they were comped at the door – a courtesy befitting what they thought was their good standing with Patrick. But, when they arrived, they were confronted by Patrick, who, it seems, hadn’t liked some things that Harasim had written about him, and told the Harasims hat they were not welcome and needed to leave.

What happened next ended up the subject of a criminal trial and civil suit, and ultimately the release – courtesy Harasim’s attorney - and the distribution last night to a number of Texas reporters - courtesy Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson – of documents from those proceedings that offer a window into Patrick’s past mental health struggles. 

Go on over to Jon Tilove's piece in the Statesman for the rest.  It's entertaining reading.

Since I'm serving again on the Early Voting Ballot Board, and am now sworn for the remainder of the cycle not to influence any voters in any way about any candidates in either party's primary runoffs, I can't say how I interpret this news.

You be the judge, in other words.

New mayoral poll same as the old one; HERO is winning

The poll finds Adrian Garcia and Sylvester Turner tied for the lead, with a second tier of closely-clustered candidates, including Chris Bell, Bill King and Stephen Costello. Digging deeper into the numbers yields more insight about those candidates with stronger name identification and favorable ratings, along with those candidates whom the voter would even consider supporting. Complete polling results may be found at www.har.com/poll.

Specifically, the Houston Association of Realtors commissioned a DC firm named American Strategies for this poll conducted over three days in the fourth week of September.  It found Turner and Garcia tied with 19%, then Bell and King at 10%, then Costello at 9%, and then Ben Hall with 6%, Marty McVey 1%, and the rest at statistically nothing.  "Undecided" actually won with 25%.  In late June, it was Turner 16, Garcia 12, Bell 8, Hall and King 3, Costello 2, and poor McVey stuck at 1%.  So everybody except McVey has moved a few undecideds into their column (that figure was 53% in the old survey).  Charles has your deep dive; I'll add these impressions.

-- The Republicans in the race strengthened the most over the summer, but still don't appear to be a threat for the runoff.  That is, if you don't consider Adrian Garcia a Republican, which I do.  He is certainly the most conservative Democrat running, and he has significant conservative financial backing.  Most importantly, he's not being scuffed by his terrible record as Harris County sheriff.  Of all the data here, that's the point I most disbelieve.  But hey, if I'm wrong and his incompetence doesn't catch up to him by Election Night, I'll own it.

-- Correspondingly, if it turns out to be Turner and Garcia in the runoff, that should be a pretty easy choice for us lefties in December.  I'm still going to vote for the most progressive candidate in the general, and that's Bell.

-- Undecideds appear to be mostly white conservative women.  Who gets the most help if and when they do decide -- King or Costello?  I suppose the teevee ads they run will get refocused (fewer football and baseball games and more Fox and Friends).

-- HERO stands at 52% in favor.  That is, in a word, awesome.  The haters muster just 37%, and only 10% are undecided.  That lede is essentially buried in both the HAR press release and the Chronicle article, and the newspaper, in its otherwise-tired fundraising analysis, notes that HERO supporters have doubled the money of Hotze and ilk.  More and better on this topic, as usual, from Kuff.

Grand Old Professor Mark Jones is always available to piss on the parade.

... Rice University political scientist Mark Jones cautioned that the poll does not account for non-traditional city voters who may show up at the polls this year to vote on the ordinance, known as HERO.

It also likely under-represents support for Turner, Hall and potentially Garcia, Jones said, as it surveyed lower percentages of African American and Hispanic voters than are expected to turn out in November, given that there are two black candidates and one Hispanic candidate in the top-tier.

Sixty two percent of respondents identified as white, 20 percent as black, 10 percent as Hispanic and 2 percent as Asian.

"This survey would appear to be underestimating African American turnout by at least 10 percent and perhaps a little more," Jones said.

"If there are people who are being driven to turnout by the HERO ordinance or by Adrian Garcia's mobilization of the Hispanic community, they would not be represented," he added.

I cannot wait to see if this conservative jackass is right or wrong.

Updates: Via Mike McGruff, the top seven mayoral candidates will debate on teevee on Friday, October 16 -- that's the weekend before early voting begins the following Monday --  to be telecast by KPRC and Telemundo.  That debate is also sponsored by the League of Women Voters and Houston Baptist University's law school.  Get tickets to the event or live-streaming info and more at the link.

And a second mayoral poll came out today, sponsored by the conservative Houston Realty Business Coalition (they've endorsed Bill King) and it shows...

• Turner with 24%
• King with 18 (LOL)
• Garcia with 14
• Bell with 11
• Costello and Hall with 8
• three percent unsure, four percent someone else.

And as you might have guessed, it also thinks HERO is losing, 31-40 with 13% undecided and 16% declining to answer.

"We're still not sure what the electorate will look like, so polling the electorate has been a little dicey," University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus said.

[...]

Rottinghaus said HRBC's poll likely over-represents younger and Republican voters, while under-representing African-Americans. "That's probably why you see King doing better in this poll, because Republicans tend to be more heavily represented."

In other words, it's garbage.

The South Carolina subheadlines: Colbert, Cain, Santorum and Paul

Jason Stanford:

Stephen Colbert might be funny, but his exploratory campaign is no joke. The point he’s been assiduously making on “The Colbert Report” is a smart bomb wrapped inside of an absurd conundrum. Simply put, there is no greater force for campaign finance these days than Colbert. By following the tortured laws and starting his own super PAC, Colbert has unleashed a prank that could embarrass the body politic into real change.

Stephen Colbert is the most talented improvisational comedian of his generation. Only one other person in my lifetime even comes close, and he never tried to stay in a single character 100% of the time. (Sasha Baron Cohen is a solid-finishing third and Pee Wee Herman comes in a fairly distant fourth, mostly because of his tragi-comic offstage altercations.)

... Colbert mocked the reductionist absurdity of the law that danced around limits to corporate influence in politics.

“It’s how much speech they can express, because money comes from speech. … Money equals speech,” said Colbert, who then challenged (ABC's George) Stephanopoulos: “Corporations are people. You won’t weigh in on whether some people are people? That seems kind of racist.”

Is any of this more absurd than Mitt Romney denying culpability for what his super PAC does because, as he claimed in Monday’s debate, he hasn’t talked to those guys in “months”? Or, for that matter, Romney’s contention that corporations are people?

Colbert's rally with fellow clown Herman Cain in Charleston yesterday was the purest poltical irony yet seen in modern times.



"If corporations are people, then I'm a people person. The Lockheed Martin Luther Burger King, if you will."

Chuck Todd sputtered that Colbert was 'making a mockery' of the political process. Dude: you obviously haven't been paying much attention to politics over the years. Google Pat Paulsen. This has been going on since before you were born. Todd did get one thing right, though...

While expressing admiration for how Colbert has exposed a lot of the idiocy involved with the marriage of politics and money, and saying he enjoys his show, Todd went after both Colbert and Jon Stewart for mocking members of the media, then backing off and saying “we’re just comedians” when the members of the media call them out on it. “Actually, no you’re not [comedians] anymore,” Todd said. “You are mocking what we’re doing, and you want a place in this, then you are also going to be held accountable for how you cover and how you do your job.”

Yeah, somebody has mentioned that before. Back to the Palmetto Bug State and the farce of actual Republican politicians.

With the race seemingly between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, Republican rival Rick Santorum is bracing for a setback and looking ahead to the next contest: Florida. [...]

Romney and Gingrich were battling for the top spot in South Carolina and Santorum was looking to post an acceptable showing. During campaign stops on Friday, he cast himself as a Goldilocks candidate: just right when compared to Gingrich's "too hot" rhetoric and Romney's "too cold" personality.

Santorum also looked to disqualify the fourth candidate in the race, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Santorum said there were three candidates who could capture the GOP nomination and cast libertarian favorite Paul as a gadfly annoyance.

That might sting a little more if it came from a guy who remembered to pay the fee for his law license. I'm thinking that Santorum's parochial school taunts aren't having as much effect as he is praying for. Still, it's probably enough to burn the bridge between Mr. Frothy Mixture's camp and Dr. No's. Not that they ever had much in common anyway.

Ron Paul finished a strong third in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3 and a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire. Although he has not campaigned as much in South Carolina as he did in Iowa, he is likely to at least triple his South Carolina support from 2008 (which was 4%).

The Paul campaign has spent about $1.5 million on television advertising in South Carolina, including a spiffy spot that features a number of federal agencies going up in smoke. Beyond the Palmetto State, the campaign has signaled it will make only a modest effort in Florida because of the high cost of campaigning and because the state is unlikely to field a full slate of delegates. Florida defied Republican Party rules by moving its primary to Jan. 31; as punishment, the party has threatened to strip the state of some of its delegates.

Most observers say Paul is unlikely to get above the 20 percent mark in the upcoming primaries in Florida, Missouri, Arizona and Michigan but should do well in the upcoming caucus states of Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota and Maine. Paul’s fervent believers tend to turn out for caucuses, as they did in Iowa.

The sooner Ron Paul slides back over to the Libertarians, the more fun it will be for everybody. One last snip of brilliance:

“Ron Paul’s expected third-place finish is not that much of a surprise, as Newt Gingrich has now firmly established himself as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney,” said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones. “What we have witnessed is less Ron Paul rising to third place and more Rick Santorum dropping to fourth place from the highs he received immediately following his success in Iowa.”

"What we have witnessed". Keep in mind that Rice University's Mark Jones is one of the most massive dumbasses who wears the title 'political scientist' ever. It's not that he gets everything wrong. He actually gets something right once in awhile (acorn/blind hog); it's that he gets paid tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of dollars for dreck like that.

People like Mark Jones are the ones making a mockery of the political process in this country. Him, and this guy:

Fox News ‘A-Team’ Psychologist: Being Married Three Times Could Make Gingrich A Better President

No excerpt. Go read it for yourself; just be prepared to piss yourself laughing.

Update: FTR, this is what 'political science' looks like.

Local media goes to work reporting on SD-6

A surprisingly good update on the latest here, from Joe Holley:

Three days into early voting, the race to replace the late state Sen. Mario Gallegos continues to heat up, as does the balloting.

The first large batch of mail-in ballots was returned Friday, outpacing voters who visited the polls in person. Since early voting began, 1,561 ballots have been cast, two thirds of them in person. More votes were recorded Friday, 805, than in the two preceding days, 756.

I'll be helping the county clerk count those mail ballots as soon as the early voting period concludes on January 22. Even Mark Jones at Rice has stepped up his game...

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones describes the relatively late date as "a strategic delay" on the part of Gov. Rick Perry and his fellow Republicans, who realize that the likely winner will be one of the Democratic candidates.

"Under the Senate's two-thirds rule, until the new SD-6 senator arrives, the Republicans need to convince only one Democrat to vote with them to pass legislation, whereas once Alvarado or Garcia arrives in Austin, they will need two," he said in an email.

On most legislation the difference is irrelevant, Jones said, but not on such controversial issues as the fetal pain bill, for example.

"With only 30 senators, the Republicans will need to tailor the final legislation to obtain the backing of only one of the handful of pro-life Democrats, not two of them," he said. "The result will, quite possibly, be legislation that is closer to the Republican ideal than would have been the case if the support of both was required."

For their part,  ABC-13 had this.



Reporter Tom Abrahams mentions "six candidates" at yesterday's EECoC luncheon forum, so he just concentrated on the ones who were in the room. I don't know where Susan Delgado was, but I do know where Maria Selva was.

This is stereotypical corporate media coverage. Ignore the Green candidates (unless they get arrested, that is.) All of the local media reported essentially the same thing -- nothing -- when presidential candidate Jill Stein came to Houston last October.

Sadly, this weak effort at journalism by KTRK soundly defeated all of their electronic competition: KHOU, which last covered the race on November 12; KPRC, televising a general overview at the start of early voting, and Fox 26, whose most recent report was a month ago.

This is nothing more than the politicians and the media -- and the corporations and the environment -- that we have earned, by our actions or lack thereof. Unless we are willing to change the way we do things. Which includes how and what we think, of course.

That's going to be a long, hard slog at the rate we're going. Doesn't mean we shouldn't make the effort, though.

Update: Here's the two-hour "Conversations with the Candidates" video interviews conducted by the League of Women Voters (which includes every one except Delgado).

Davis discloses medically necessary abortion in memoir

Your Friday evening bombshell.

Sen. Wendy Davis, in her memoir due out next week, discloses the most personal of stories preceding her nationally marked fight against tighter abortion restrictions: a decision she and her then-husband made 17 years ago to end a much-wanted pregnancy.

It's very candid and very emotional.

Davis, in a copy of the book obtained by the San Antonio Express-News, wrote that her unborn third daughter had an acute brain abnormality. She said doctors told her the syndrome would cause the baby to suffer and likely was incompatible with life.

After getting several medical opinions and feeling the baby they had named Tate Elise “tremble violently, as if someone were applying an electric shock to her” in the womb, she said the decision was clear.

“She was suffering,” Davis wrote.

The unborn baby's heart was “quieted” by her doctor, and their baby was gone. She was delivered by cesarean section in spring 1997, the memoir says.

Davis wrote that she and her then-husband, Jeff, spent time with Tate the next day and had her baptized. They cried, took photographs and said their good-byes, she wrote, and Tate's lifeless body was taken away the following day.

“An indescribable blackness followed. It was a deep, dark despair and grief, a heavy wave that crushed me, that made me wonder if I would ever surface. ... And when I finally did come through it, I emerged a different person. Changed. Forever changed,” Davis wrote.

The issue of choice has once again laid bare the seething, boiling misogyny of the extreme right.   If the article's comments are any indication, that is.  Mark Jones gets it right for once.

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said he doesn't expect the revelation to lose any votes for Davis, since he said it's a relative small proportion of voters who oppose abortion in cases of severe fetal abnormality.

“The group that will be most bothered by her having an abortion of a baby with a severe fetal abnormality is a group that wasn't going to vote for her anyway,” he said.

“The positive side of it for her is it humanizes her, and also makes it a little tricky for opponents to attack her on the abortion issue because now, it not only is a political issue for her, but it's a personal issue,” Jones said.

It energizes her core support, and it energizes her core opposition (to the extent that they could be any more angry and bitter and unhinged).  In this Kos diary you find some anecdotal evidence that there are Democrats who weren't supporting Davis before because of her stand on choice, and have, like conservatives, hardened their hearts to a greater degree with this revelation.  This is going to be your news of the day, all weekend.  And the court of public opinion will render a verdict on the political influence it gives both sides in less than 60 days.

Update: More from Socratic Gadfly, and this from Vox.

Talking about abortion is rare — but the actual experience isn't. More than one in every five pregnancies —  21 percent, excluding miscarriages —  are terminated, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a non-profit research organization that supports abortion rights. Each year, 1.7 percent of American women between 15 and 44 have an abortion.

There are literally millions of women who share a dark secret.  They are bonded in their... whatever emotions you wish to assign to their experience (a tricky game, for certain).  I stand in support of those women who are the only ones that can understand the heartache, the social stigma, and the consequences of their experience.  All they should receive from all of the rest of us is unequivocal, unconditional support of their choice, whichever choice they made.

But as long as we live in a state and a country that believes there is an invisible man in the clouds watching every thing you do -- and judging you for potential admission into his afterlife paradise -- then his minions in this realm will keep taking on the judgmental part as their personal privilege.

Fuck those assholes. We ain't going back in time to the days when coathangers and pennyroyal tea were the only choices women had.

More updates: Greg Abbott responds, and the UT poll results from last summer are worth repeating.

"Overall, 76% of Texans thought a woman should be allowed to have an abortion when her life was in danger, and 57% thought that a woman should be able to obtain an abortion when there was a strong chance of a serious fetal abnormality."

Those numbers include a lot of Republicans.

Ahead of televised debate tonight, KPRC poll shows 4-way tie for second in mayor's race

First seen at Mike McGuff (whose links are shit, by the way), the KPRC/Survey Houston mayoral poll released today, in advance of their telecast of the debate tonight reveals...

• Undecided: 22%
• Sylvester Turner: 20%
• Bill King: 14%
• Adrian Garcia: 13%
• Chris Bell: 12%
• Steve Costello: 11%
• Ben Hall: 4%
• Martin McVey: 1%
• Other: 3%

This I can buy.  With a margin of error of 4.5%, and based on the reputation of an outfit like SUSA, we have the most believable poll on the contest so far.  It's a wide-open race for the fellow who is to join Turner in a December runoff.  Except for Ben Hall, who is sinking like a stone.  The conservative whites are breaking away from him in the late game.

It also has HERO leading by nine, and almost at 50%, but I doubt that one in five likely voters is actually undecided about it.

• 45 percent of those polled said they will vote in favor of Prop 1.
• 36 percent plan to vote no.
• 20 percent are not certain.

Mark Jones, who has lost all credibility and is blissfully unaware of it.

"You really do have to consider that a majority, or perhaps three quarters of people who say they're undecided or say they have no response, will end up if they turn out, will end up voting no," Mark Jones, political science chair at Rice University, said.

No, you don't. That's a bald-assed guess on your part, favoring your own position.  Jones thinks people who oppose the ordinance would not reveal that to the pollster, another premise without any facts to back it up.  Why does anyone ask this man anything any more?  Is his conservative bias unclear to the media that has him on speed dial?  Is it the "Rice University" part?

He is an epic failure, and so are those who consider him a source of objective analysis.

Anyway, the King and Garcia and Bell and Costello campaigns can now rev their engines for the start of the race.  And a shout-out directly to the HERO haters: it's slipping away from you.  Fold your tent and slither back down into the sewer from whence you came.

Only two things today

If your time is short -- like mine -- and you only have time to read one or two pieces about Texas politics today, then click on these from Paul Burka and Charles Kuffner.

The evolution of the Republican primary into a race to the far right is a sad moment in Texas politics. There is nothing left of the party of George W. Bush, or even the party of Rick Perry. The press has done little to hold up its side of the equation; they can't get away from the Wendy Davis saga. We should be talking about how Republicans have allowed creationism to creep into the schools, about the myopia of the media when it comes to setting the agenda for a political race, about the failure of the business community to shoulder its share of responsibility for educating Texans about the things our citizens need: better schools, better roads, better health care.

There's only three more paragraphs there.  Burka isn't all that accurate all that often any more, but he's dead solid perfect there.  And so is Charles.  All the grafs ahead of this last one are important.

Here’s where Mark Jones’ idea really makes no sense. Pretty much every county where Democrats are strong features important primaries. We already know about Harris County, where the need to nominate Kim Ogg outweighs Jones’ suggestion all by itself. Travis County is electing a County Judge, as is El Paso County, which also features three hot legislative races. Bexar County has races for County Judge, County Clerk, District Attorney, District Clerk, and a slew of District Court judges. Dallas County has a power struggle between current DA Craig Watkins and Party Chair Darlene Ewing, with the former running his own slate of candidates, including one against Ewing. Tarrant County will be key to Rep. Mark Veasey’s re-election. And those are just the big counties.

The media and the consultants and the anal-ysts like Jones have dictated the terms of this election so far, and not just with the roasting of Wendy Davis for the snarling consumption by the fringe right hogs in this state.

The only way that will ever change is if enough people refuse to buy what they're peddling, and upend the conventional 'wisdom' with their direct action at the polling place.  If that does not happen, then Texans will keep getting what they have gotten for the past 20 years.  And will excruciatingly deserve what they will surely get in the years to come.

This is your final warning.

Bob Perry dead

It's just a slow Swift Boat ride down the River Styx, made faster by the fact that there will be no pause in Purgatory.

Houston homebuilder Bob Perry, a major Republican campaign contributor and a leader of the successful drive to limit lawsuit awards in Texas, has died, a spokesman confirmed late Sunday.

He was 80.

There really isn't a single solitary thing about Republican politics in Texas over the past ten or twenty years -- and for a while there, the entire country -- that Perry did not have a hand (read: his money) in. The TXGOP, several sessions' worth of conservative legislators, and even the US presidency bear the mark of his financial legacy: $32 million to candidates and causes since 2000.

Update: I thought that sounded low. "Since 2004, Perry has given a total of at least $45 million in federal contributions — excluding direct donations to candidates, according to Federal Elections Commission records, a 2012 AP analysis and figures tabulated by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics."

The Center for Public Integrity ranked Perry third in its list of super donors, noting he contributed $23.5 million to Super PACs in 2011 and 2012. In the 2004 presidential campaign, he was a top donor to the Swift Vets and POWs for Truth, which fervently questioned the accuracy of John Kerry's description of his military service in Vietnam.

Perry was a pragmatic Republican who became a kingmaker as "the most prolific political donor in the state of Texas," said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones, who predicted Perry's death "is going to have a profound impact on Texas politics."

"Pragmatic" is definitely not the word I would choose. But Jones is, after all, a big fan of the man. (Jones is also credited with the underestimate of Perry's spending; the $32 million figure above is now attributed to Perry's donations statewide.)

He did sometimes donate to Democrats - like state representatives Eddie Lucio of Brownsville and Mike Villarreal of San Antonio - so long as they championed "education, economic liberty and tort reform," (spokesman Anthony) Holm told the Dallas Morning News last fall.

[...]

For example, he bankrolled the successful 2005 effort to pass a state constitutional amendment against same-sex marriage but stunted a 2011 effort to expand the authority of police inquiring about the immigration status of people they detain.

Yeah, Swift Boat Bob earned the enmity from the Xenophobe Caucus for his lasting support of cheap labor, but not for the same reasons others would (like refusing to raise the minimum wage, for example).

I think there is something serendipitous about the timing: Perry, and the generation of Texas Republicans who rose to power in the Reagan years, are being carried now to the cemetery just as the children of all those day laborers come of voting age, and the Democrats in Texas poise themselves for a renaissance. The locals sure are scared; there are at least two different reports of Battleground Texas meetings in Houston that Republicans have attended and reported on. And in reading that, the sheep seem real nervous.

Rest without peace, Bob.  Your epitaph is what it is. Nobody will actually miss you that wasn't depositing your checks.

Clinton up by nine, but down 5 since mid-June (post-Orlando)

I mentioned last week that we should take note of polling in the wake of the Pulse massacre, and today's Reuters/Ipsos results do indeed reveal that the American sheep are nervous.

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Republican rival Donald Trump has slipped by about five percentage points since mid-June, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday, bringing the race for the White House to within nine points.

The poll showed that 44.5 percent of likely voters supported former secretary of state Clinton while 35.5 percent backed businessman Trump. That compares with 46.6 percent support for Clinton and 32.3 percent for Trump on June 12, a date that marked her widest lead for the month.

Trump has focused much of his energy in recent days on the mass shooting in Orlando, Florida, by a U.S.-born gunman pledging allegiance to Islamic State militant group. Trump vowed to ban people from entering the United States from countries with links to terrorism against America or its allies.

Raw Story does not link to the poll nor does it reveal the third-party results, so I tracked that down and found them lumped into the "other/wouldn't vote/refused" category, totaling 20%.

So as a two-horse race national survey, it's just not worth anything beyond the spin for Trump and Clinton and the various media outlets who think it is worth something.  What's more telling is this poll from Quinnipiac for the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, via NYT.

Donald J. Trump’s recent rough patch has taken a toll on his standing in three crucial swing states, according to a new poll that shows voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania viewing Hillary Clinton as being better prepared to be president.

A survey from Quinnipiac University found Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. Trump by a margin of 47 percent to 39 percent in Florida, where they were essentially tied in May. Mrs. Clinton also erased Mr. Trump’s narrow lead in Ohio, where the candidates are now deadlocked at 40 percent. In Pennsylvania, Mrs. Clinton leads by a single percentage point.

The polls had margins of error of plus or minus three percentage points, rendering Ohio and Pennsylvania very much up for grabs a month before Republicans hold their nominating convention July 18-21 in Cleveland.

Update: Raw Story does better with this republish of NJ.com's Jonathan Salant and five takeaways from Q's swing state polls.

Polls this early blahblahblah and other cautionaries aside, if Florida is moving out of contention then Clinton is a shoe-in.  If she picks a Latino (and Julian Castro is being rumored as a finalist -- I like Tom Perez and Xavier Becerra better now that I have scrutinized them) then a swath of states move closer to purple -- not Texas, but a Castro selection forces the GOP to play defense on turf that they should have easily been able to hold.  Rice's Mark Jones got this one right.

Rice University political scientist Mark P. Jones put some parameters on what "better" could look like for (Texas) Democrats.

"'Better' is keeping Trump's victory in the single digits, and taking back somewhere around a half-dozen state House seats, taking back Congressional District 23 and turning Harris County blue," Jones said.

Let's also note for the record that among the vice-presidential contenders, Elizabeth Warren and Perez have drawn the most objections, from Wall Street to Big Business.  That may actually mean something in Hillary's thought process about her pick.

In other news, Jonanthan Chait screwed the "Nader/Gore/Bush/2000" pooch for all to see and take selfies of.  There's a cottage industry that thrives on this guy's foibles, so I'll only repeat the truth  for those that still don't get it.  And if you don't believe me, you really should believe Jim Hightower.

Perry's "strategic victory on sanctuary cities" 2.0

I've been on Mark Jones at the Baker Institute like white on rice about this, as regular readers will attest. His original premise, you will recall, was that the demise of "sanctuary cities" (sic) legislation in the regular legislative session represented a 'strategic victory' for the governor. Today Jones posted his revised postulate.

Did the Texas Republican Party leadership (principally Governor Rick Perry, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst and House Speaker Joe Straus) repeatedly fumble the ball in its drive to pass “sanctuary cities” legislation? Or, instead, was the legislation’s failure, in the end, the leadership’s collective desired outcome?

Let's allow Jones to reset the stage, beginning at the beginning.

At the start of the legislative session in January, the Texas Republican Party leadership had three broad options regarding state-level immigration reform. The first was to do nothing based on the belief that either state-level immigration reform legislation was not in their — or the state’s — best interest or that, because immigration is a federal responsibility, all reform efforts should take place in D.C., not Austin. The second was to follow the Arizona model and pass wide-scale, state-level reform designed to root out and arrest undocumented immigrants, crack down on businesses that employ undocumented immigrants, reduce undocumented immigrant use of social services by imposing citizenship verification requirements, and, in general, make undocumented immigrants and their families (many of whom are U.S. citizens or legal residents) feel unwelcome and unsafe in the state — thereby encouraging them to leave/never come in the first place. This is, for example, the path followed by Alabama and Georgia, which each passed legislation in line with the Arizona model earlier this year.

Presented with these two options, Governor Perry chose neither, opting for a third approach — that of a narrow focus on the largely symbolic issue of “sanctuary cities” which he declared to be one of six “emergency” items in January.  The goal was to satisfy the Republican base by prioritizing immigration reform legislation while at the same time blocking efforts to implement more controversial Arizona-style legislation, which Perry does not consider to be appropriate for Texas (or, one can assume, for the United States more generally). This strategy was quite effective, with very limited public discussion of Arizona-style legislation during the legislative session and with conservative activists expending their energy trying to get the comparatively innocuous “sanctuary cities” legislation passed rather than the more draconian legislation their peers in Alabama and Georgia were working on.

A very good point here: The Texas legislation was weak and watered down (per Cal Jillson at SMU), but it also had the desired psychological effect of mollifying the TeaBagger/bigot base of the Republican Party of Texas, who are long on emotion and short on intelligence. They believed that their legislators, especially the newly-elected Tea Party darlings, were actually going to finally do something about Ill Eagles.

By early March, the prospects for any Arizona-style legislation even being debated in committee had faded, and the Republican leadership focused on the “sanctuary cities” legislation (House Bill 12) which, while primarily symbolic, still caused serious rifts within the party. Supporters of the legislation included a large majority of Republican senators and representatives who, due either to ideological conviction and/or pragmatic concern regarding potential reprisals from conservative activists and Republican primary voters, at least publicly favored the bill’s passage.

Arrayed against the bill within the Republican Party were two principal groups. The first were those in the Republican establishment (elected officials, consultants, donors) who believed the passage of “sanctuary cities” legislation would have a negative electoral impact on Republican candidates in the state via a reduction in the proportion of Hispanics who vote Republican combined with an increase in Hispanic voter turnout. In 2008 and 2010, Texas GOP presidential, gubernatorial, and senate candidates received an average of 36% of the Hispanic vote, a noticeable contrast to California where similar Republican candidates averaged only 28% of the Hispanic vote. In 2008, only 38% of eligible Hispanics voted in Texas, compared to 65% of Anglos and African Americans.  Once again, the contrast with California is noteworthy, with 57% of eligible Hispanics casting a ballot in the Golden State, and the gap between Hispanics and Anglos (69%) and African Americans (65%) much narrower than in the Lone Star State.

The second group was business leaders (who, of course, also tend to fall into the donor category above) who opposed the legislation for two principal reasons. First, passage of the legislation (viewed by many as discriminatory and anti-Hispanic) would have a negative impact on the state’s national and international image and, thereby, an adverse effect on investment, corporate re-location and tourism.  Second, passage of the legislation would cause some undocumented immigrants and their family members to leave the state, as well as lead some future migrants to avoid Texas — thereby slightly reducing the supply of available labor for the agricultural, construction, and service industries.

You should be familiar with their names by now: Norman Adams and Steven Hotze in the first camp; homebuilder Bob Perry, grocery magnate Charles Butt and their political consultants HillCo Partners in the second. As for that second group, there's dozens more just like them -- wealthy conservative business owners who give a lot to Republican campaigns and are big fans of cheap labor -- but the key point is that these two guys don't give a damn whether their names get published in the paper or not. They consider themselves above reproach from everybody, certainly a Republican primary voter.

Jones then repeats the long-refuted tactic of scapegoating Wendy Davis for the special because she filibustered to the end of the regular session. We know that's bullshit, though. The governor was going to call a special anyway to deal with the unresolved windstorm insurance legislation.

Let's cut to the chase.

Recall also that during the regular session, the “sanctuary cities” legislation was approved by the House on a 100-to-47 party-line vote, only to be blocked by Democrats in the Senate on a 12-to-19 party-line vote. But during the special session, essentially the same legislation was approved by the Senate on a 19-to-12 party-line vote (the two-thirds rule was not in force during the special session) — only to fail to make it out of the House State Affairs committee, the same committee which in early May had heartily endorsed it on a 9-to-3 party-line vote.

This is important: Speaker Straus and Governor Perry quickly blamed Sen. Robert Duncan of Lubbock for not allowing the "sanctuary cities" bill, once it had quietly died in House committee, to be attached to the must-pass school finance reform bill in the Senate. The Senate passed the school finance bill, sending it to the House ... and then quickly adjourned sine die, a day early. The House then rejected the school finance bill with mere hours to go in the special ... the GOP members caucused, twisted some arms, and finally passed it ... without "sanctuary cities".

But Ima letchoo finnish, Mark.

After one regular session and one special session, no “sanctuary cities” legislation has passed (in contrast to a great deal of other controversial items on topics ranging from education spending to abortion and voter identification). There are several optics from which to view this reality.

One is that the Texas Republican Party leadership is inept and/or feckless and this failure is the result of a combination of a variety of factors including Republican legislators being bested by their Democratic colleagues in legislative procedural battles, Republican legislators caving under the weight of the last minute public intervention of a few influential Republican donors, the inability of Republican legislative leaders to conduct business in an efficient and timely manner due to the absence or distraction of their party’s “exhausted” legislators, and, most recently, the obstinate behavior of a single Republican senator.

Another, very distinct, view is that after a cost-benefit analysis of the alternatives, the demise of the “sanctuary cities” legislation was the Republican leadership’s collective preferred outcome.

For those who have labored through Jones' ponderous, academic prose, here's the bottom line: no matter how it happened, the Tea Ps are seething over this betrayal and they are going to make someone pay for it.

They'll primary Robert Duncan in west Texas because Perry and Straus have declared him the scapegoat, despite other GOP senators coming to his rescue. They're already blaming Perry for pretending to do something about the perceived Ill Eagle "problem" and then folding like a cheap lawn chair in fealty to his big-money donors. Maybe that's why this recent poll shows Obama ahead of the governor in Texas (as for that, nobody believes it will hold up, whether Perry is on the '12 ticket somewhere or not).

But I will grant Jones that this outcome does give cover to all the incumbent GOP state legislators in their 2012 primaries against TP challengers, enabling them to say: "I WOULDA voted fer it -- hell, I DID vote fer it -- but th' _______ (House/Senate) didn't let it come up fer a FINAL vote".

And I predict that the TeaBaggers will swallow that lie. Hook, line, and sinker.

So ... it's not so good as originally thought for the governor and his presidential aspirations -- that's good for Texas, and the nation for that matter -- and it's real good for jacking up the Tea Partiers again. That's bad for Texas.

Whether it's good or bad for Republicans depends on what kind of Republican one is.

Update: Then again, this might be the law that does the job that "sanctuary cities" doesn't.

The Turner-Whitmire dynamic

It's the key to the runoff, and perhaps the mayor's office itself.  Not the most recent news development for observant watchers, but it's been busy blogging around here for the past couple of weeks.

The mayor, the senator, and the representative 

announcing the firefighters pension agreement last month.

"My name is John Whitmire, and I'm Sylvester Turner's state senator," he said, a go-to laugh-line that landed in a sea of donors. "Everyone in my district is important, but Sylvester Turner kind of stands out."

Kind words like those -- exchanged again and again over the past 12 months in both directions -- have gone a shade past the standard "good friend" lavished by nearly every politician on their predecessors at a dais. The alliance between Turner, a powerful Democratic state representative, and Whitmire, the most senior Democrat in the Senate, say people familiar with their ties, is genuine yet politically potent and already is sculpting the local Democratic landscape.

"The moon, the sun and all the planets have come together in the Sylvester-John orbit," said Carl Whitmarsh, a longtime Democratic activist close to both men.

This is the primary reason -- beyond all the other good reasons -- why Sylvester Turner is and has long been the front-runner in the race for mayor of Houston.  It's why Noah has already picked him as his favorite, why Kuff has taken note, and why the stars seem to be aligning, as Carl Whitmarsh pointed out above.  They're both not only senior legislators in powerful chairs in the Lege (in a dominated minority party), they're also personal friends.

Earlier (in March), Turner and Whitmire claimed credit for brokering a deal between an equally dug-in City Hall and fire pension board to modify the city's pension payments. And Whitmire is expected to co-chair Turner's mayoral campaign, formalizing what has been an aggressive courting of the local political establishment by the senior senator on Turner's behalf.

To see how their long and strong partnership is shaping the race, just look at a couple of the other contenders' reactions.

"They've been allies for a long time. It doesn't surprise me that they support each other," said Turner opponent Oliver Pennington, a city councilman who is critical of the pension deal struck by the Democratic pair.

Pennington is one of two Republicans most likely to be in a mayoral runoff with Turner.  (The other is Steve Costello.)  The Democrat most likely to join Turner in the second round is Chris Bell, and Turner and Whitmire know it.

When Jim Jard, a politically connected developer, planned to align with Chris Bell, one of Turner's opponents, Whitmire "called in a chit," according to a person with direct knowledge of the interaction.

Jard is now supporting Turner.

"  'Hey Jim, Sylvester has a self-interest in fixing a lot of these problems that everyone's worried about,' " Jard recalled Whitmire saying. " 'If he's going to be mayor, who has more of an interest in getting it fixed?' "

Seems a little redundant, Whitmire's rationale.  Jard's probably not telling us everything he knows.

It's still too early to rank Pennington, Costello, and/or Bell after the odds-on favorite, and if Adrian Garcia ever busts a move, things get scrambled... but only for second place.  I remain of the opinion that Garcia is wise to stay out because he has by far the most to lose.

I just don't think Sylvester Turner is going to let himself get Laniered a second time.

Update:  This kiddie pool-depth "Where's Waldo" article -- meant to update us on Garcia's status but not telling us anything new -- from Groogan at Fox26 (who usually does a better job) contains yet another odious fundraising importance meme from a political consultant, and the most ridiculous Mark Jones quote to date.

As for the threat of losing support among influential Hispanics, Jones says rivalry driven defection among Latino leaders has become the norm.

"I think there are quite a large number of Hispanic political elites in Houston who believe if they can't be mayor or someone in their faction can't be mayor I think they would prefer that a non-Latino be mayor," said Jones.

Remind me what you think their options are again, Dr. Jones?  Latino, non-Latino and what else?

1600 Pennsavainyah Update

The cartoon at the top of yesterday's post takes on additional meaning in light of the president's overnight diagnosis.  I'm not one to dance on peoples' graves -- that's for Mitch McConnell and his slimy ilk -- but Trump is certainly going to find a way to politically capitalize on his health development.  Should he survive it.

If he does not, then it's Pence who wins, by default and perhaps by ballot too.

And what if Biden should turn up infected, incapacitated, or something worse?  Obviously IMO the DNC will roll with the zero-delegate-earning veep selection made by Old Joe -- again, it's her name on the ticket -- and not the man who received the second-most delegates in their primaries.  In the fine Democrat tradition first established (as best I know) in 1944.

Good times.

I hope everyone understands why I and so many others no longer want to be associated with this two-headed monster.  There's a lot of Constitutional wrestling for Ds and Rs to do in order to save themselves from extinction.  Climate chaos is more likely to get us all anyway, if COVID-19 -- or the next novel coronavirus after this one -- doesn't.

In the meanwhile, we'll rearrange the Titanic's deck chairs.  (Hey, if you're not feeling pessimistically existential or nihilistic, or both, this morning ... WTF is wrong with you?)

-- How about a real civilized debate next week, since those others may be canceled now?

Howie will be participating in the The Free and Equal Elections Foundation Debate on Tuesday, October 8 in Denver, CO. While none of the major party candidates will attend, this is a great opportunity to hear what our #LeftUnity campaign is fighting for!https://t.co/mPriaGQ598 pic.twitter.com/5CicoXKyBa

— Howie Hawkins (@HowieHawkins) September 27, 2020

@DonBlankenship is confirmed to participate in Free & Equal's Open Presidential Debate this OCT. 8th. He will be joining candidates @HowieHawkins, @GloriaLaRiva, @BrianCarrollASP, & @brockpierce.

LIVESTREAM: https://t.co/Q26gXyhjaI#FreeAndEqualElections #OpenTheDebates pic.twitter.com/HHt7lDnXry

— Free & Equal Elections (@FreeandEqual) October 1, 2020

Regrettably, Mark Charles was not invited.

Don't like either candidate after that debate? Vote Green, or write in Mark Charles 2020. Check them out. Time for a real alternative. Hey @NPR why aren't you talking about these other candidates? https://t.co/JTrBzPdCFq

— Regular Person 🌹🌻 🦺 Vote 4 No Evil (@dailyintel1) September 30, 2020

It appears he was unable to qualify for write-in status in Texas.

Great question. I am on the ballot in CO and a write-in candidate in: AL, DE, GA, IL, IA, ME, MS, MT, NH, NJ, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, DC, WV and WY.
Working to be a write-in candidate in: AK, AZ, CA, CT, ID, KS, KY, MD, MN, MO, NE, NY, ND, VA, WI.

— Mark Charles 2020 (@wirelesshogan) October 1, 2020

Mark Jones Tweeted a list of all Texas write-ins, from the top of your ballot down, that I posted in Monday's Wrangle.  Remember: only "qualified" write-in votes count, so don't bother writing in Bernie, or Mickey Mouse, or Hypnotoad, or anybody else not on the TXSoS' list.

I had a lot more for this post, but circumstances nuked much of the relevance.  So like you -- and everyone else -- I'll wait and watch and see what happens next.

Hump Day Wrangle from Far Left Texas

The most recent redistricting developments kick us off today.

Redistricting the top story on the front page of Tuesday’s Dallas Morning News (and, yes, joining Denton with the Panhandle is nuts 🥜). #txlege pic.twitter.com/d7gmjUl7QM

— Michael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli) October 5, 2021

Senate journal confirms 3 Dem yes votes on proposed Senate map yesterday — Hinojosa, Lucio & Zaffirini. The one GOP no vote was Seliger, who argued on floor that his district was redrawn to favor primary challenger @kevinsparkstx, ex-@TPFF board member from Midland. #SD31 #txlege

— Patrick Svitek (@PatrickSvitek) October 5, 2021

Kuffner made excuses for them with the "every man/woman for themselves" bromide, but you just don't see Republicans standing with Dems twisting the shiv like this.  If there's an exception, it's Kel Seliger, who's going to need some help pulling that knife from between his shoulder blades.

surely at the urging of lt. gov. patrick, former president trump endorses against sen. seliger : https://t.co/ItY9fNfGYg #txlege

— quorumreport (@quorumreport) October 5, 2021

Killeen is a majority black/hispanic community that the Texas GOP is evidently determined to split apart. Instead of believing in democracy and giving power to the people, they apparently just believe in a cheatocracy where they horde all the power. #txlege #redistricting https://t.co/GC0zJ4sWZT

— Clayton Tucker (@ClaytonTuckerTX) October 5, 2021

"Since the enactment of the Voting Rights Act in 1965, Texas has not made it through a single decade without a federal court admonishing it for violating federal protections for voters of color." A look at how historically red Tarrant County is changing. https://t.co/mgDwdXwSnz

— T.L. Langford (@tlangford) October 4, 2021

Two Black members of Texas' congressional delegation spoke out against changes that break up their Houston area districts. But Republicans seem committed to pushing new district maps forward as proposed, or with only slight changes. https://t.co/0qjqxecppl

— Texas Standard (@TexasStandard) October 5, 2021

“You’ve decided to take out the downtown area, which as I said was formerly the residence of African Americans, Texas Southern University, and University of Houston,” said Rep. Jackson Lee. “So I’m asking for those economic engines in the 18th congressional district to be restored.”

Rep. Jackson Lee says the new maps draw her home out of her own district and put it in Rep. Green’s district.

“It doesn’t look right for the only two persons in the state of Texas to be running against each other in a congressional district from the same party to be of African ancestry,” said Rep. Green.

Census data shows Black, Hispanic, and Asian residents made up 95% of Texas’ population growth since the last time maps were drawn in 2011.

However this year marks the first time in decades lawmakers won’t have to get federal preclearance to ensure the maps aren’t discriminatory. A 2013 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court struck down that part of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

This is probably the only way the Republicans stood a chance at getting SJL -- or Reverend Al, as the case may be -- out of Congress.  So they lost their sight, as it were, and took their shot.

'I drew blind to race,' Joan Huffman says, in tense showdown with Beverly Powell.

Alleged cracking of minority voter communities in Tarrant County doesn't stop GOP-drawn Texas Senate map from advancing, @gromerjeffers reports. #txlege
https://t.co/WC9BuEcWzK

— Bob Garrett (@RobertTGarrett) October 5, 2021

Oh no, this might shame @joanhuffman into fair dealings.

LOL, jk

The racist maps will sail through on party line votes and then we'll get a sternly-worded press release from the @texasdemocrats decrying the maps and offering ZERO solutions. #txlege #redistricting https://t.co/aWYUdJia7y

— Denise Flores (@TheDeniseFlores) October 5, 2021

Moving on to other Lege fails.

Business Friendly? by @Nick_Anderson_
Tech businesses are taking notice of the turn to the right. Read more: https://t.co/XS2OXpVQ4K#txlege #texasabortionban #texasabortionlaw pic.twitter.com/HhrEe8kSgG

— RA News (@RANewsTX) October 5, 2021

The #txlege House has not yet passed any bills.
The House bill (HB) that is perhaps furthest along is #HB1 (TX House Districts) which passed favorably out of committee today and could be on the floor for a vote by the end of the week. As could #SB5 & #SJR1 https://t.co/Ra0SlazlDb

— Mark P. Jones (@MarkPJonesTX) October 5, 2021

I don't think Dade Phelan has lost Mark Jones, but it's a crine ass shame to see Jones carrying water for Dan Patrick.  Dear Rice University: you can find better.  Please do so.

I have more.

Even in polls that are friendlier to Republicans’ position …. it’s still not really friendly. #txlege #tx2022 #sb8 https://t.co/VktsHOow4Q

— Rebecca Marques (@_RebeccaMarques) October 4, 2021

Anonymous Releases Data From Texas GOP In Third Leak From #EpikFail https://t.co/a1JgQ5P1oT

— Cry Baby (Sleep) (@jonomilo) October 5, 2021

To put a finer point on it, the TxRRC hasn't implemented some basic recommentations from @NERC_Official and @FERC's report from *2011* for "minimum, uniform standards." It's been a decade!!!

See p. 212: https://t.co/jCJTB2QqJ3 #txlege #txenergy https://t.co/s1ZYvlyRQm pic.twitter.com/PXI4KB54eg

— Doug Lewin (@douglewinenergy) October 5, 2021

The criminal and social justice news.

Billionaire and left-wing activist George Soros gave $500,000 to a political action committee lobbying against Prop A, a ballot measure concerning staffing levels at the Austin Police Department. | @AKMcGlinchy https://t.co/JUsVv2sOry

— KUT Austin (@KUT) October 4, 2021

“Harris County police and prosecutors systematically abuse the constitutional rights of drivers, seizing cash and other property without probable cause, and quickly filing lawsuits to keep the seized cash in their own budgets using civil forfeiture.” https://t.co/ZV0Kt1w09Y

— Urban Reform (@urbanreformorg) October 4, 2021

Harris County DA investigating deal at center of allegations that Turner steered money to developer https://t.co/jtdSCOVqZX via @houstonchron

— Matt Schwartz (@SchwartzChron) October 6, 2021

Still no mention of all this Democrat-on-Democrat violence from Shelly.  Maybe he hasn't opened that section of the Houston Chronicle over the past few weeks.

(I mean really.  How would we all survive if he didn't read the newspaper and then tell us what it meant?  Probably a little better than if Facebook crashed for a few hours.)

How's that 'eliminating all rape in Texas' going, Governor?

Sexual assault is a serious and underreported crime. @GregAbbott_TX using rape victims as a political dodge for his extremist policies is more than a reflection of dishonesty.

It exposes his callous disregard for the safety of all Texans. #txlege https://t.co/i3Kqvs1q0l

— Lone Star Project (@lsptex) October 5, 2021

Concluding this segment with some updates from the border.

For nearly 15 years, Pamela Rivas fought to save her land from the wall. But her property still crawls with Border Patrol and surveillance technology. https://t.co/7C312cuSWA

— Texas Observer (@TexasObserver) October 5, 2021

Migrants said officers took them to a private ranch before arresting them.

Cops moved aside to let another man through a gate, then arrested him, a prosecutor said.

Some of the 100+ border trespassing cases tossed by a Democrat:
https://t.co/yThBUUDpq5 #txlege

— Jolie McCullough (@jsmccullou) October 5, 2021

"We suffered a lot to get here": A Haitian migrant's harrowing journey to the Texas-Mexico border https://t.co/KHg38ItD55

— Texas Tribune (@TexasTribune) October 5, 2021

Border Patrol horse unit 'alive and well' in Del Rio despite Psaki suspension claim https://t.co/3MQ8aXIWgL

— Jenn Budd (@BuddJenn) October 4, 2021

A few current pieces about Texas Republicans behaving badly.

Ted Cruz blocking appointments of dozens of State Department nominees, including 59 would-be ambassadors, and vowing to block dozens more https://t.co/gqOqHP4zEm

— Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) October 4, 2021

Dodge the Times paywall here.

Democrats call Cruz’s actions an abuse of the nomination process and the latest example of Washington’s eroding political norms. They also say he is endangering national security at a time when only about one-quarter of key national security positions have been filled.

This is going on all over Texas. Midlothian ISD hired a black woman as director of diversity and inclusion after a school board member got caught in photos wearing blackface. Didn’t go over well with the conservatives. https://t.co/LJXLeRbRzB

— x (@LookSeeLuksi) October 6, 2021

Matthew Mazzocco of San Antonio will spend 45 days behind bars for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.https://t.co/Q2fbJpiBDd

— News 4 San Antonio (@News4SA) October 4, 2021

NEW: The ad vs. @ATT was set to run today in the digital version of @dallasnews.A rep for the paper told @American_Bridge they didn't want to run the ad as it mentions the telecom giant by name@DIRECTV,per the PAC,didn't run it because of their ties to $Thttps://t.co/L3sV2OLJsZ

— Brian Schwartz (@schwartzbCNBC) October 5, 2021

Yes, these are all Republicans.

One environmental piece.

.@BordenMitch has the story of Ashley Watt, a 35-year-old rancher in Crane County.

This summer, an aging oil and gas well on her property — plugged and abandoned over 20 years ago — began leaking toxic water, throwing Watt into one of the hardest fights of her life. https://t.co/yuo8wPAkRt

— Carlos E. Morales (@celizario) October 5, 2021

Closing out with the soothers (and what better than some wine?)

Did you know October is Texas Wine Month? It's a great time to gather your friends and plan a trip to Austin because just outside of town, the Texas Hill Country is home to more than 50 wineries. Map out your own wine trail road trip. https://t.co/6jdeeX0h6E pic.twitter.com/Vua9itC6cR

— Austin Texas (@VisitAustinTX) October 5, 2021

In what seems like a scene out of Alfred Hitchcock's "The Birds," grackles seem to set out to terrorize us in Texas' urban space. They congregate outside our supermarkets, act like tiny velociraptors, and sing raucous operas every evening. #longreads https://t.co/qeNokmK8wT

— Texas Highways Magazine (@TexasHighways) October 3, 2021