Thursday, July 25, 2013

Why early polls are even more like toilet paper than usual

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is outdistancing Vice President Joe Biden by almost 5 to 1 in a hypothetical matchup for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, a new McClatchy-Marist Poll released Wednesday found.

The poll found Clinton leading Biden by a ratio of 63-13 percent among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Govs. Andrew Cuomo of New York and Martin O'Malley of Maryland trail in single digits, while 18 percent of respondents said they were undecided.

The same poll shows Clinton leading the current Republican front-runner, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 46-41 percent among registered voters. Twelve percent of respondents were undecided.

“Get ready for round two of Hillary Clinton as the inevitable,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, in a statement from the polling organization. “The big question is whether she runs.”

Uh huh. More spin from the Chronic.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry fares worse against Hillary Clinton than any other potential Republican presidential candidate, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

Perry, who says he is thinking and praying about a possible 2016 presidential candidacy, trails the former Secretary of State by 16 percentage points — 52 percent to 36 percent — in a hypothetical general election match-up. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan also trails Clinton by 16 points, 53 percent to 37 percent.


In a GOP primary contest, Perry places a poor seventh at 4 percent. Freshman Texas Sen. Ted Cruz finished sixth with 7 percent.

B-B-But the Texas Tribune told us just last month to tell us that Ted Cruz is vastly more popular among Texans in the 2016 Republican presidential primary than Governor Suckseed. That's not translating nationally?!

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz starts as the Texas favorite in a fantasy 2016 Republican primary for president, swamping Gov. Rick Perry and a number of other big-name candidates in the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

I'm sure that once those Yankee TeaBags get to know Poop Cruz, they'll like him just as much as the rest of us do.

I'm previously on record that if Clinton runs she wins, and further that if she would select a Texas Latino as running mate, that the state turns blue. Further, said Latino would himself be elected and re-elected president, preventing the Republicans from having a decent shot at the White House before 2032.  There weren't any polls that helped me come to that conclusion. Just common sense (even considering, as Master Yoda said, "always in motion the future is").

Polls this far out are used to gin up supporters of the emotional and financial persuasion as well as to cast, as Miringoff notes in the first excerpt, an aura of inexorable destiny.

The difference between fresh TP and used TP -- besides the obvious -- is the immediate evidence of diminishing marginal returns, in economic parlance. Now that you have wiped yourself with these polls, flush them.

And catch yourself before you post it to Facebook or Tweet it, or any of those other things that some political consultant is hoping you will do. That's the kind of person who looks at their Klout score every morning.

Don't be that person.


Infidel753 said...

Do you think Hillary's age would be an issue? She's obviously in a very strong position, but by 2016 she'll be almost as old as McCain was in 2008.

PDiddie said...

Yes I do, especially if the Rethugs nominate someone in their 40s or 50s. I just think it will be a very minor issue, since the country has already successfully traversed this road with Ronald Reagan (the definition of success being flexible in hindsight).

It wasn't McCain's age that people questioned, although the Daily Kos loved to work that angle (the whole "get off my lawn" business). It was his spectacularly poor judgment.

The argument simply doesn't make sense considering the demo of the typical R (old, white). Then there's the Clinton corporate conservatism, which will draw crossover moderate Republicans in the general, especially if the GOP nominates an extremist like Cruz or Paul. The poll does get one thing right IMO: a Christie-Clinton contest would be the closest one. Try to picture tickets like Christie-Rubio or Clinton-Castro, and you can see it would be very, very interesting.

Hillary really isn't my cup of tea, personally. But there is no doubting that the presidency in 2016 is hers to lose.