Friday, July 10, 2009

My guess is Kay quits

The race for governor, not her Senate seat. Harvey Kronberg, yelling again:


For second time in as many weeks, a survey of Texans shows Perry with double-digit lead.

A new horse race poll out today has Gov. Rick Perry with a double-digit lead over U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison for the GOP nomination for Governor next year. Perry leads Hutchison by a 38 percent to 26 percent margin in the survey conducted by UT’s Texas Politics project.

Perhaps more notable is that this is the second survey in as many weeks to show Perry with a significant lead over his Republican rival. In late June, the Texas Lyceum released a poll showing Perry leading Hutchison, 33 percent to 21 percent.

But if the Hutchison camp can find something heartening, it’s the high level of Texans who have yet to pay attention to the horse race. The Texas Lyceum poll found 45 percent of those surveyed undecided about their choice for Governor. That number was down significantly in the UT poll but 34 percent still said they either would vote for someone else or were undecided.

If I'm wrong, and she quits the Senate soon to focus on this ill-fated attempt to be governor, then I believe that Rick Perry will take John Cornyn's advice and appoint Greg Abbott to fill the unexpired term. I don't think the governor likes Dewhurst as much; his good buddy Roger Williams (despite the love from Paul Burka and Roger Staubach) probably doesn't have enough name recognition to close the deal, and I think Perry is too afraid of his base to nominate a black man to the post.

And if I'm wrong again and Dewhurst does get the seat, then Abbott runs for lieutenant governor. We're not going to rid ourselves of that guy no matter what.

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