Crunch time for Chris Bell

And no, that isn't the snow and ice under your feet (which in my neighborhood was all gone before the sun even came up this morning). No, Politicker suggests that the early vote is going Joan Huffman's way:

Numbers are out from the first day of early voting for the state Senate District 17 runoff, and they appear to point to a more competitive race between Republican Joan Huffman and Democrat Chris Bell.

There are now three days of EV in the can, and while Tuesday's numbers jumped up a bit, Wednesday's were severely depressed by the weather.

Early voting, which began Monday and runs through Friday, brought 3,822 voters to the polls on Monday in the five district counties — obviously a far cry from the 223,295 total votes in the initial election. But on a percentage basis, Bell strongholds aren't voting as much, while Huffman's strongholds are becoming an increasingly larger proportion of the electorate.

For example, in Harris County, which includes Houston, Bell won the Nov. 4 race, 38 percent to 21 percent. However, Harris County voters made up 53.6 percent of the vote in the initial election. On Monday, they accounted for only 41.1 percent. After Harris, the second-largest county in the district is Fort Bend, which represented 27.8 percent of the Nov. 4 vote and went to Bell, 39-36. On Monday, Fort Bend accounted for only 19.7 percent of the vote.

Huffman's biggest strength was in Brazoria County, which she carried, 37-27, on Nov. 4. However, Brazoria County voters were only 9.5 percent of the electorate in the special election. On the first day of early voting for the run-off, they made up 19 percent of all voters.

The numbers aren't all bad for Bell. He dominated the counties of Galveston and Jefferson on Nov. 4 by margins of 49-18 and 58-7, respectively, and both of those counties have more than doubled their percentage of the electorate, based on the early sample. Galveston rose from a 4.1 percent share to 9.9, while Jefferson increased from 4.9 percent to 10.1.

However, even with the increased weight proportionally of those counties, they still only make up 20 percent combined of the vote, meaning potential slides in Harris and Fort Bend would be more important.

Today and tomorrow are the final two days of EV, and the hours are longer, stretching from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. both days. Let's push this race over the finish line for Chris Bell, and put another much-needed Democratic Senator in Austin.