Late polling out of Nevada shows an Edwards collapse that is benefiting Clinton. This is obviously the worst possible news for both Obama and Edwards. It looks like the Clintons are using Obama's anti-gambling history against him, which is just one more reason for me to want to puke.
You can learn some about how the caucuses are going to work and lay of the land here. I am not going to predict the outcome of tommorow's contest but I will say that Obama cannot afford to lose and Edwards cannot afford a collapse below the 15% mark. Both of those outcomes are now indicated in the polls. So, my fingers are crossed and I am not at all happy.
Here are the results just now:
Clinton lost almost every county in Nevada but she won in Clark County by a big margin and that is where most of the people live. She is going to win the caucuses with somewhere around 49%-52% of the vote. Edwards will finish with an astonishingly low 4% of the vote. Both outcomes are deadly to the prospects for stopping a Clinton nomination. I think Obama's victory in South Carolina is now at risk, particularly if Edwards' supporters start shifting to the other white candidate.
I'm 'this' close to calling the nomination as over. But dynamics can still change in a hurry and perhaps an Obama comeback in South Carolina can still propel him to victories on Feb. 5th.
There is still no official word on how much money we raised for the Edwards campaign yesterday. Obviously it wasn't $7 million.
I'm going to dinner in Kemah. I'll probably have some thoughts on South Carolina and the prospects going forward tomorrow, in between the Sunday Funnies.