A Clinton indictment, and a SCOTUS instruction to the 5th Circuit on TX Voter ID

-- One week from today, Clintonites, and your quiet misery and stoic endurance of the defaming of your standard-bearer will all be over.  Unless she catches an indictment, that is.  And if that happens, it really goes clusterfuck.  This dude -- a former DOJ employee when now-FBI Director James Comey served as deputy AG in the W Bush administration -- says essentially the same thing I did a few weeks ago.  The notable difference being that in the wake of the State Dept. IG report released last week, he does not believe she can escape a federal grand jury's verdict.

No, her self-serving email set-up was not “allowed” under the State Department’s rules.  No, she was not “permitted” to use a personal email system exclusively as she did.  No, what she did was hardly just a matter of her “personal convenience.”  No, there is no evidence that any State Department attorney (other than perhaps Secretary Clinton herself) ever gave “legal approval” to any part of her special email system. No, everything she did was not “fully above board” or in compliance with the “letter and spirit of the rules,” far from it.  Yes, she was indeed required by the FRA to maintain all official emails in an official system for proper review, delineation, and retention upon her departure.  Yes, her private server equipment was in fact the subject of multiple attempted intrusion attempts (i.e., hacks), including by foreign nations.  The list goes on and on.  (Note that this does not even include Ms. Clinton’s many serious “misstatements” about her handling of classified or potentially classified information.)

Now, even the general public is left with the unavoidable conclusion that Ms. Clinton either is ignorant of the law (which too many people know is not so) or else feels blithely untethered to reality in a way that necessarily serves her secretive interests regardless of any truth — the technical legal term for which is “pathological lying,” or perhaps merely “psychosis.”  Not a pretty picture for a voter of any stripe at any stage of the electoral process.

I still can't see it.  Nor can I see this scenario for selecting a replacement presidential nominee should I be wrong and an indictment happens.

So what you must contemplate, as a leader of the Democratic Party, is the very real possibility of your likely presidential candidate actually being indicted, on criminal charges, sometime between now and, say, (a) the time of the convention at the end of July; (b) the time of the general election in early November; or (c) Inauguration Day in January.  Which possibility would you prefer?

Obviously, the answer might well be possibility (d):  No indictment at all.  But if that were not a realistic possibility, and remembering that your absolute imperative in this election cycle is to avoid at all costs ending up with a President Donald Trump, your preference is clear:  You want a Democrat other than either Clinton or Sanders to go up against Trump in November, unorthodox as that might now sound.

In short, you want a Biden/Kerry ticket, a Kerry/Biden one (less likely), or a ticket with either one of them (preferably Vice President Biden) together with whomever Hillary Clinton picks as her running mate in July.

An already-chosen running mate?  Yes, her running mate, chosen by her as the presidential nominee — because you want Clinton to be replaced as your nominee (i.e., after the convention), but not with Senator Sanders, for all the reasons stated above.

That was a fun and fanciful read, but I remain of the mind that Clinton skates, becomes the nominee, and is elected president.  YMMV.

Update: This doesn't mean as much as they think it means.  The author of the original, Frank Huguenard, is fairly well-known crackpot (but Snopes should get his name spelled correctly).

-- It doesn't happen much any more that an op-ed outside the Lone Star State weighs in on the lavatory of democracy that is Texas, our Texas, but the WaPo did, and the headline is 'Texas Voter ID chicanery'.  It's a worthwhile rehash of where we are at this moment, but here's the nut graf.

It remains unclear whether the Texas law will apply in the November elections, but the Supreme Court, apparently eager for clarity by then, instructed a federal appeals court in New Orleans to render its judgment by July 20. 

If the en banc review upholds the law, then that decision will be immediately repealed to an 8-member SCOTUS.  No bets taken on that verdict.

The Weekly Memorial Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance says that whether you buy a new mattress, grill a steak, go to the movies, or do nothing but rest, remember the reason for the seasonal holiday you're enjoying today.

Here's the weekly blog post roundup.

Off the Kuff rounds up coverage of Ken Paxton's latest anti-transgender lawsuit/publicity stunt.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos remembers Ken Starr and his role as the Republican Grand Inquisitor during Bill Clinton's presidency.

Socratic Gadfly, looking ahead to the general election and his mentions already of "Plan B" and Green Party voting, takes note of what he calls anti-third party electoral bigotry.

Some incredible pictures of the sky were included with flood photos from Houston's most recent monsoon at PDiddie's Brains and Eggs.

Asian American Action Fund writes about the 2016 Asian vote with references to Alexander Hamilton and the Fair Housing Act, and Egberto Willies also passes along news that the community is moving toward the Democrats in record numbers.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston says that when it comes to the Texas electricity website, all we really have is the Power to Complain.

The Lewisvlle Texan Journal reports that the fish are biting, but you may have a little trouble finding a place to put your boat in.

Texas Leftist praises Mayor Sylvester Turner for getting his municipal budget passed quickly and unanimously by Houston city council.

In his ongoing efforts to demonstrate that life is fun and hopeful, Neil at All People Have Value posted a photo of some Kroger shopping carts aligned with palm trees in the parking lot.  APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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Think Progress reports on Rep. Louie Gohmert's contention that Matt Damon's movie "The Martian" proves that anti-gay bigotry is justified.

Ashton Woods at Strength in Numbers keyboards an open letter to the Sanders campaign challenging their characterization of a meeting with HIV/AIDS activists.

Marian Wizard Vasquez at The Rag Blog, in her first dispatch from Belize, gets a glimmer of the 'colonial fatalism' that decrees "that's just the way things are".

Prairie Weather takes a look at the Clintons' "none of your business" trap.

Space City Weather examines the two days and two massive storms that hit Texas last week.

The Dallas Morning Views asks whether we should question the public reputation of Chris Kyle by considering his resume' plagiarism.

LawFlog takes a look at another alleged threatening e-mail from US Judge Walter Smith, Jr.

And Pages of Victory fondly recalls attending the kiddie matinees with his brothers.

Sunday Funnies, Grand Old Potty edition

Drip, drip, drip.  I still think she can skate over the thin ice all the way to Washington, but there are smart people who would rather not understand why Bernie stays in the race (seriously smart; see narcissism of small differences) and morons who will never get it.  Sanders gives them, and people like them, a flaming hemorrhoid.  They are most definitely still feeling the Bern, and I'm not giving them any aloe vera.

On our national holiday honoring those who died serving their country, let's make sure we don't neglect -- or condescend to -- those who made it back home.  And let's honor the service of both by not sending any more young men into war.

Photos from Houston's latest monsoon

There was a sky at dusk yesterday evening as the torrent finally relented that I have rarely ever seen. These pictures simply don't do it justice.

(all pics courtesy Houston Chronicle)

And after dusk.

Update: This collection from Melissa Law on Facebook ...

 ... with several of this apocalyptic cloud formation.

 Some cows got loose on 290, caused a little traffic backup.

The Texas Observer graphically explains our challenges.  We flooded like hell a year ago on Memorial Day weekend, you might recall.  At this point we're damned if we do and damned (or maybe it's dammed) if we don't.

Long Weekend Funnies: Hillary got served edition

Not to be seen on blogs drinking the Blue Koolaid...

Long weekend plans

Relaxing and reading.

-- Mrs. Diddie is recuperating from having the rest of her left rear quarter panel replaced (her knee was switched out in January; her hip yesterday).  Except for some post-operative high blood pressure which responded to medication, she's doing well this morning.

-- The best thing I have read about why the largest banks aren't being prosecuted is posted at ProPublica: they actually are, but the appeals courts are rescuing them.  Just as appalling as it sounds.

-- Andrea Grimes speaks for me on the subject of public bathrooms.

I’m more than a little creeped out about where the minds of men such as Paxton and Patrick seem to go when they think about public restrooms. There’s a certain predilection for prurience in drawing a straight line between “public restroom” and “opportunity to sexually assault a woman or child.” In the most disturbing example, U.S. Congressman Louie Gohmert, the East Texas Republican, recently said in a radio interview that he’d have jumped at the chance to pretend to be transgender as a teenager in order to infiltrate the girls’ bathroom at his school.

When I think about public restrooms, I’m usually thinking about whether there’s going to be a functional soap dispenser or one of those fun Dyson hand dryers. I’m less likely to wonder if they will afford me an opportunity to commit a sex crime.

-- Alzheimer's may be due to bacterial infections.  An immune system response.  That would completely change the thinking about how the disease might be treated -- or warded off, if you have a genetic dispensation (as I do).

-- From Wikileaks, this e-mail passed through Hillary Clinton's private server.  Twice.  Maybe 'gold', 'oil', and 'Qaddafi' were just code words for Chelsea's wedding. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Two bacon cheese triple patty nothingburgers to go, please.

This was the foulest load of crap I read on the topic yesterday.  It covered nearly every space on my Brockhole Bingo card.

Let's establish that my primary objection isn't the casual dismissal of this matter by Hillary Clinton herself -- I would expect no less than her condescending rejection at this point -- but the stubborn and rigid attempts of her lickspittles to aggressively discount her probable violations of the law with logic like "I don't care" or "nothingburger".

This is both Nixonian and Dubya-like in its unquestioning faith placed in a corrupt leader.

Once the FBI investigation concludes with no indictment, nobody -- but nobody -- will have the power to hold Hillary Clinton accountable to anything except the people resolutely lined up behind her.  She certainly doesn't give a good goddamn what anybody else thinks.  She will only hear the calls for full disclosure with the expectation of bringing an end to this episode if the stooges currently defending the indefensible rouse themselves from their intellectual torpor and start to question a few things.

If she won't come clean now... when?

In other news: a Trump/Sanders debate.  Priceless.

Winners and losers from last night's returns

-- It's the battle of the incompetent politicos with fortunate surnames for the right to regulate the Texas oil and gas industry (aka the Railroad Commission).  Grady not-Ralph Yarbrough not-Yarborough won his runoff against Cody Garrett, and will face off with Wayne Christian (from now on, appearing in this space as Xtian), who defeated 7-time loser (don't get any Mucus on you if you click this link) on the GOP side, Gary Gates.  The news that broke in this race:

Gates won Harris, FT Bend, Bexar, Monty, Dallas, Williamson, Galveston, Denton, @ChristianForTX won w/ rural vote in 146 counties #txlege

— Luke Marchant (@_Luke) May 25, 2016

This is another Hobbsian choice, a Sid Miller/Junior Samples rerun of a statewide contest. Your best option will be the Green Party candidate, Martina Salinas (though she should update her Facebook page, maybe get a website).

-- Ed Gonzalez will be Harris County's next sheriff after besting Jerome Moore in the runoff.  Rebecca Elliott at the Chronic refries the beans for the fall tilt ...

Gonzalez's victory set the stage for a potential replay of 2008, when former Sheriff Adrian Garcia, a mentor to Gonzalez, unseated longtime Republican Sheriff Tommy Thomas amid a Democratic resurgence led by Barack Obama.

Garcia resigned last May to run for Houston mayor, prompting members of the county's Commissioners Court to tap Ron Hickman as his replacement.

Gonzalez, who has called on the sheriff's office to help reduce recidivism through correctional education, boost transparency and increase jail inspections, distanced his leadership style from Hickman's.

"I think we can do much better," Gonzalez said. "He's had about a year to kind of make his mark on the agency, and I think there's been some questionable decisions that have been made, so I'm looking forward to a very contested general election battle."

Hickman, who sailed through the March 1 GOP primary, has touted improvements to agency morale and cost-savings initiatives. However, he has come under fire in recent months for understaffing and overcrowding at the jail, as well as the death of four inmates who were assaulted or suffered head trauma while incarcerated.

Gonzalez, for his part, is likely to face renewed scrutiny for taking home six homicide case files when he left the Houston Police Department in 2009. Police charged a suspect in one of those murder cases within two weeks of receiving the file years later.

Hickman starts with a sizable financial advantage over Gonzalez, with $227,000 in the bank in February, compared to Gonzalez's $43,000 as of mid-May. 

I voted for Gonzalez because he was the only candidate in the race who opposed 287(g), a callously inhumane Obama immigration policy.  And I was appalled by former sheriff Garcia's active prosecution of it.

Latinos have every right to demand -- and expect -- progress from a Hillary administration regarding this, and if the long-awaited Latino surge in voter turnout finally shows up to vote against Drumpf, Clinton and Gonzalez and many other Democrats in Harris County and Texas and the United States -- and as referenced above, perhaps even a Green Latina -- will be the beneficiaries.

-- Winning their elections but still losers in life include Jarvis Johnson (as predicted), Ron Reynolds (as predicted) and Judge Elaine Palmer and JP Hilary (ex-wife of former City Controller Ron) Green.  You had better options, voters, but the real blame goes to the 97% or so who couldn't be afflicted to participate in this runoff.  When you allow cronies, flacks, and insiders to pick your representatives, you get governed by your inferiors.

... Reynolds attracted support from an array of elected officials including Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, U.S. Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee and Al Green and the Democratic party chair of Fort Bend (Don Bankston). Reynolds noted that none of his legislative peers were calling for his resignation.

(Challenger Angelique) Bartholomew's campaign sought to capitalize on the criminal allegations involving Reynolds, as did Annie's List, a statewide group supporting progressive and pro-choice women that endorsed Bartholomew. "The pattern of wrongdoing is stunning!" one news release from Annie's List stated.

In a press release, Reynolds described that characterization of him as "negative smears."

As I have reminded the most ignorant of Clinton supporters, facts are not attacks.

Other events that trailed Reynolds included a ruling from a Harris County judge in April that ordered the representative to pay $504,000 in damages for failing to give a mother her share of a settlement in lawsuit related to her daughter's death in a car crash.

That same day, in Austin, the State Board of Disciplinary Appeals held a hearing to consider whether Reynolds could continue to practice law in Texas. According to an order subsequently filed, Reynolds was suspended pending the outcome of his criminal conviction.

This man is not qualified to serve, but only further convictions may deter him from doing so.  The Democratic voters of Fort Bend County certainly won't exercise due diligence in this regard.

So things are looking good for African American Democrats locally, as they swept nearly every single race across the region.  Harris County Latinos, similarly, have lots of bright prospects for the fall.  Despite my snark, Team Blue has a strong lineup to take back the county in a little over five months, and I'll hoist a glass in their general direction this holiday weekend.

Now that we'll shortly have more Democrats in office, how about some better ones also?

Update: Goodbye, Mary Lou.  The only time you will have been mentioned here, and with your Lord's help, never to be seen or heard from again.

Revolution News Update, Vol. 5: Inevitability is almost here

-- According to Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight.com (who has only been wrong a time or two), Hillary Clinton will clinch the nomination on June 7 -- two weeks from today -- once the polls close in New Jersey, a couple of hours before the polls close in California.   So maybe that's what she meant when she said California's votes won't be counting.

(But Ted will still be an asshole long after that.  Those will be the last clicks he gets from here for a while; you won't be finding him in the Wrangle or in the blogroll to the right any longer.  He voluntarily deported from my Facebook friends list recently, which saved me four seconds' worth of my time and trouble purging him myself.  Bye Felicia, Ted.  Hope to see ya in San Antone next month so I can punch you in the nose.)

-- So we'll see what kind of good Democrats Sanders delegates plan to be in San Antonio at the TDP state convention three and a half weeks from now. The people organizing the delegation are stressing harmony and cooperation, which really isn't tasting like my brand of tea at the moment.

I have media and delegate credentials, but except for a sudden desire to straighten Ted and a few other people out, I'm disinclined to attend the convention at all.  Just won't be able to stomach all the Clinton slobbering and fawning.

-- Let's emphasize: Hillary Clinton is in no danger -- not at the moment and probably not ever -- of failing to be elected president of the United States.  Disregard national horse race polls that show her neck-and-neck with Drumpf, and remind yourself that we do not elect presidents by popular vote.  That is and always has been nothing more than careless media spin.  Pay attention only to state polling in an Electoral College scenario.  Those polls continue to hold Clinton as a prohibitive favorite.  The WaPo's first take, for example, has several states as tossups that really aren't:

Their very conservative estimate above gives Clinton 201 EC votes and Trump 164.

Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada -- by Cillizza and Bump's own admission -- are not seriously swing states.  Add them (51) to Clinton's tally and she is just 18 votes from the White House.  That's Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Iowa.  Or either one of Florida or Ohio.

This premise gives no weight to the formidable (relative to their history) challenge to Trump's electoral prospects by the Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and former MA Gov. William Weld, mentioned at the end of RNU Vol. 4.  Whereas the US Green Party is currently ballot-eligible in just 21 states, the Libs are on in 32.  That turns a couple of tossups blue all by itself, IMHO.

And if Arizona and Georgia are truly in play, then Drumpf has no chance at all.  Go ahead, play around with the map yourself.  It's not going to be Landslide Lyndon territory for the former Goldwater Girl, but it's not going to be very close, either.

With these thirteen states -- I contend it's less than ten -- being the only ones where anybody's votes might matter, that leaves a lot of Americans with the opportunity to vote their conscience.  Their votes for Trump or Johnson, in California or New York or every other solidly blue state above, won't elect Clinton president.  Likewise, a vote for Jill Stein in Texas will not -- cannot -- elect Trump.  But you'll continue to see this logical fallacy repeated by Hillbots from now until Election Day.  It's no more true than blaming Ralph Nader for Al Gore's loss in 2000.  Now, it's possible that a vote for Johnson-Weld in a swing state could be blamed for Clinton's victory in November, but only if you believe the false premise that Libertarian votes belong to the GOP ... just as Green votes are owned entirely by Dems (sic).  Ross Perot caught grief for Slick Willie and his two terms in 1992 and '96, but let's leave the GOP to fight amongst themselves over that.

Let's call the Clintons extremely lucky in politics, if nothing else.

An indictment of Hillary Clinton by a federal grand jury, presented with evidence that she criminally mishandled classified information could upset the apple cart, but I believe that's simply unlikely to happen (even if she is guilty of the crime, which she very likely is).  And certainly there's a slight chance that she could fuck up a sure thing in some other way.  But I can't see it happening.  Clinton may be a monster; absolutely capable of serious errors in judgment but she is not quite as self-destructive as Trump, and certainly not to the same magnitude.

From the standpoint of a handful of social issues -- women's reproductive freedoms, extending civil rights to all of the LGBTQ community, perhaps some ground regained in voting rights, and some for the obstructionists lost in voter suppression and disenfranchisement -- a Clinton 2.0 administration is a good, good thing.  From the view of incremental advancement in other areas (the federal minimum wage, maybe some of that old Clinton magic dust sprinkled around the economy), Hillary's definition of 'progressive', like Nevada being a swing state, is a charade.

And as for more wars, drone assassinations, the continuing Svengali-like control of corporate lobbyists over her and Congress, and the resulting legislation that further enriches the banks, pharmaceutical companies, and Big Oil and Gas to the detriment of our environment and our health, financial and otherwise ... we might be in worse shape than if we somehow got Trump.  Il Douche, the neofascist, would make no pretense of exceeding capitalism's worst and greediest dreams; Clinton would say she'd do something about it and then not.  Yes, prevarication coupled with the pillaging is worse.

So a lot of Americans, perhaps many more than ever in history, will see no difference between the Demoblican and the Republicrat and won't vote as a result.  That has the odd consequence of making the votes of those who do worth more ... just as our historically low turnout elections for runoffs in Texas and municipal elections in Houston do the same.  Enabling the most fanatical about politics, however, aggravates the system's and its players' worst instincts.

Your vote has more influence in a low-turnout scenario, but simultaneously produces lousier representation and a shittier democracy.  The smallest number of people carrying the greatest weight -- as with the 5-4 Supreme Court decision that handed the presidency to George W. Bush in 2000 -- often produces Murphy's Law-like consequences ... such as 9/11, My Pet Goat, pre-emptive wars based upon lies about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, American soldiers and the CIA performing torture on innocent Iraqi citizens, Congressional reports about the torture being destroyed accidentally, all while the drones and bombings and special forces' boots on the ground in country proliferate, inflaming Muslim extremists in a dozen nations around the world ... which inevitably results in more wars.

Round and round we go, until there's nothing left.

So vote or don't, Berners.  You may not perceive that it makes any difference in your lives either way, and from a certain point of view you're not mistaken.  As for me, I'll vote my principles.  That lets me sleep well at night.

Runoff election today, Harris Commissioner forum, and more

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The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance doesn't get paid for not working for Ken Paxton or George P. Bush as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff just shakes his head at the Supreme Court punt on birth control.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos explores the deep disconnect between the recently ratified Texas Republican Party's platform and the views of residents in Houston, the state’'s largest city. Political Divide: Texas GOP - Its braying buffoons and "penurious reactionaries" are not who we are.

Socratic Gadfly looks at the most recent imbroglio, or whatever, involving Dallas County DA Susan Hawk, and fires both barrels, saying she needs to resign AND the Dallas media needs to do a MUCH better job covering this issue.

The latest revolution update is posted by PDiddie at Brain and Eggs.

McBlogger says the Dark Ages have descended in Austin with the departure of Uber and Lyft.

Egberto Willies detailed his own bad medical experience to underscore the continuing problems with for-profit health care in the USA.

The Lewisville Texan Journal reviews the art show "Strictly Texas", on display there.

An oily substance covering the town of Mansfield, TX couldn't be blamed on pickles, by the account at TXsharon's Bluedaze.

Neil at All People Have Value walked around downtown Houston this week with a sign that called for us to respect one another. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

And Dos Centavos eulogizes Emilio Navaira.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Trail Blazers reveals that like Ken Paxton, Land Commissioner George P. Bush has also been paying state employees not to work; the difference is he's paid them not to sue him or the department.

The WAWG Blog observes that the Gig Economy enables you to have the right to work for slave wages as your own CEO.

Make West Texas Great Again notes that even newly re-elected RPT chair Tom Mechler sees the fallacy of having God as your campaign manager.

Jonathan Tilove at First Reading is all aTwitter about Don Willett,  the state SCOTX justice whose name appeared on Donald Trump's short list of potential SCOTUS nominees.

The Texas Observer's review of HBO's All The Way, the biodrama about LBJ, suggests a kindler, gentler, somewhat less crude portrayal of the nation's 36th president.

Robert Rivard excoriates the Supreme Court decision upholding the school finance system, and Better Texas Blog forecasts a scary future for Texas' children as a result of that ruling.

Christopher Hooks contemplates Ted Cruz's future.

Leah Binkovitz rethinks urban design in the wake of recent flooding.

Offcite reviews several new books on transportation.

The Lunch Tray documents a falling-out between the School Nutrition Association and House Republicans.

Save Buffalo Bayou reports on the sieges of herons and the skewers of egrets.

And Pages of Victory is adjusting to his chronological age.

Sunday Funnies