Turner wins tight race for Houston mayor

State Rep. Sylvester Turner won the Houston mayor's race with a down-to-the-wire finish to edge businessman Bill King Saturday.

At one point, with 53% of precincts reporting, Turner had a 500-vote lead over King.  That was half the number of undervotes in the contest at that time.  Later, with 82% in the can, King pulled ahead by 1600 votes in Harris County, but was still losing the race by about 1800... thanks to a 3400-vote lead in Fort Bend County, with predominantly African American and middle class precincts in Houston proper.  Turner got 93% of the vote there.

Turner wound up carrying all three counties narrowly, but it was the cushion in Fort Bend -- and the pathetic 4% turnout in Montgomery County, which gave King a 100-vote margin -- that made the difference.  In a race this close, though, almost anything could have changed the outcome.  In Harris, for example, 208,600 votes were counted for the two candidates, and Turner carried the county by less than 700.  But 1,188 Houston residents did not vote for either candidate, and -- even weirder -- 6 people voted for both of them.  (Don't ask me to explain this.)

Chris Brown defeated Bill Frazer to be the city's controller for the next four years in slightly more comfortable fashion, 52-48 or about 8K out of 179K cast, with nearly 30K undervotes.

Mike Knox defeated Georgia Provost 52-48 in AL 1, incumbent David Robinson prevailed over Willie Davis 54-46 in AL 2, Amanda Edwards trounced Roy Morales with 62% to win AL 4, and shitty Jack Christie got 58% against shittier Sharon Moses in AL 5.  The real news in these citywide races was the massive amount of undervoting; AL 2 and AL 5 both had over 45,000 'none of the aboves', more than 20% of their total.

In the district runoffs, Mike Laster won easily with 65%, Karla Cisneros beat Jason Cisneroz by a 55-45 spread, but incumbent Richard Nguyen was defeated by Steve Le 51-49 in one of the uglier contests in recent memory.

HISD incumbents Rhonda Skillern-Jones and Manuel Rodriguez held onto their seats as well.

Thus Council gains a TeaBagger, Knox, to replace the moderate Steve Costello, gets a little more liberal with Edwards replacing C.O. Bradford, and we'll wait to see what we get with Le replacing Nguyen.  The rest of the new faces may be a wash, ideologically.

The deadline to file for the 2016 primaries is Monday and we'll quickly turn our local and statewide attention to that.  I'll have more shortly about Nile Copeland, the Democratic judicial candidate for Court of Appeals in 2012 -- a fellow I endorsed and spoke highly of  -- who's running for a state district judgeship as a Republican in 2016.  He's on the right in the photo below from Bill King's defeat party last night.  On the left is Tex Christopher, who's running for the chairmanship of the Harris County Republican Party.

This feels like a larger betrayal than even Chris Bell's, to be honest.

It's Election Day

Republicans are turning out their vote.



Charles and Free Press Houston have the pertinent data if you still need it.  You have my recommendations.  You gonna let a little rain today stop you?

What I will be watching for as the returns roll in is turnout in places like District C (Chuck again) and the undervotes in all races, but especially AL 5.  Most are too close to call, but if push came to shove I'd say we'll have Mayor Turner and Controller Frazer, with AL CMs Provost, Robinson, Edwards, and Christie (yuck) joining district CMs Le, Cisneros with an 's', and Laster taking seats around the horseshoe.  That would represent little ideological change from the previous Council, with the exception of the Republican in the bean counter's office.  If I'm right, we might see some flinty sparks between Fraser and Turner (scroll to the end) in 2016 and beyond... the next four years, as you may remember.  I could, of course, be wrong about some of these predictions (or all of them).

Recall also that Bob Stein, the cycle's most accurate pollster, thinks King has won the early voting and Turner will win today.  The final question is who won by how much.  So when Clerk Stanart finally flashes the EV to HarrisVotes.com shortly after 7 p.m. this evening, you'll have a pretty good idea how late you want to stay up, election night parties or no.

There's a very Merry Christmas in store for a few folks, not so much for some others.  About twelve hours from now, we'll see who got sugarplums and who got a lump of coal.

Republicans also losing the youth vote

That is, in addition to women, minorities, and those sane Republicans still left out there.  A couple of Texas anecdotes worth repeating.

Just over a month ago C.J. Pearson was a 13-year-old conservative social media sensation, booming support for Sen.Ted Cruz. Now, he has not only disavowed conservatism, he is the new youthful voice of the Sen. Bernie Sanders campaign.

“They used to call me a conservative wunderkind. Now, I’m just CJ. The semi-exciting independent from GA feeling the Bern,” Pearson wrote, in his updated Twitter bio.

Pearson shot to conservative stardom in February with a viral video questioning President Barack Obama’s love for the United States. It gave Pearson a massive social media following, which Cruz targeted in September when he named Pearson the chairman of Teens for Ted.
 
Pearson’s stuck with the Cruz campaign from Sept. 8 to Oct. 31. He abruptly left the position, asserting that Cruz “wasn’t doing enough to address the issues important to young people like student loan debt and youth unemployment.”

And this one.

The Texas state director of Republican presidential hopeful Jeb Bush's young donor program has quit and is planning to join the campaign of Democrat Martin O'Malley.

Shooter Russell, a University of Texas sophomore who since June had held the formal role with Bush's "Mission: NEXT program," told the Houston Chronicle he made the switch because of the GOP's opposition to people fleeing war-torn Syria.

"The final nail in the coffin were Trump's comments on Muslims, the inaction by the party, and our very own state's actions on blocking Syrian refugees," said Russell, who added that he has cousins who do mission work in the Middle East.

As state director, Russell said he oversaw about 80 volunteers at 15 chapters across the state, set up phone-banking plans and helped organize an event featuring Bush's son, Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Now, he said, he is planning to travel to Iowa to campaign for O'Malley...

Probably doesn't mean much of anything, a 13-year old high school freshman or a 19-year old college undergrad changing their minds and  switching parties.  After all, they're no Sarah Slamen.

In a related post, Zach Taylor points out that if Bernie Sanders is on the ballot, then so is the minimum wage, and there is evidence demonstrating that issue drives non-voters to the polls.  How many young people of voting age work for minimum wage?  Glad you asked.  Pew Research tells us that the number of Americans aged 21-30 who work for more than the minimum wage but less than $10.10 an hour (which, coincidentally, happens to be very close to what the minimum wage would be if it only kept up with inflation) is 35.2%, using year-old data.

If I were supporting Hillary Clinton, for example, I might concerned about the fact that she supports a minimum wage increase to $12, while Sanders calls for $15, and a productivity adjustment from the late 1960's to 2012 would dictate a minimum wage of nearly $22 dollars an hour.

We're also not going to entertain any whining from the "job creators" when there is proof of prosperity for all when the wage gets raised, and especially not when they're stashing trillions offshore and performing mergers and tax inversions as fast they can.

You paying attention, Democrats?  Here's another clue to electoral victory in 2016.

Since nonvoters tend to be younger, less white, poorer and more mobile than voters, this isn’t entirely surprising. But one reason these findings are so striking is that voters and nonvoters hold broadly similar views on a range of other controversial issues. Christopher Ellis, an assistant professor of political science at Bucknell, tells me that gaps on issues like abortion, immigration, and gun control are comparatively modest (he is supported by Pew research). But economic issues are different.

It's always been the economy, stupids.  People vote their pocketbook, and when nobody's talking about their pocketbook, they don't vote.

Progressive candidates -- from the Democratic or the Green Party -- who can speak with conviction about raising the minimum wage, who can contrast the overwhelming majority of all Americans who support raising it against the corporations who oppose, while renouncing their U.S. "citizenship" and shifting profits offshore to avoid paying their fair share of taxes (a tab the rest of us have to pick up) as deserters, or traitors to America ... win.

That's a campaign platform all by itself.

TX Railroad Commission: Porter out, Patterson in (maybe); Naishtat retires from House

We haven't had any Lege business to blog about since the end of the regular session in the summer, so this filing news today, mostly broken by Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report, reminds us that a lot of this shuffling is going to happen between now and next Monday's deadline.

-- First: RRC incumbent David Porter, a beancounter by trade and an industry flack by choice, finally realized the jig is up and is sliding out the back door.  He's got an unable and unworthy replacement considering a jump back onto the state's payroll.

Texas Railroad Commission Chairman David Porter on Thursday morning announced he is withdrawing from the race to serve another term at the state’s oil and gas regulator.

Moments after the announcement, former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson told Quorum Report he is considering a run for the seat.

“This decision was not an easy one, but I feel that all the goals I set out to achieve were accomplished during my tenure,” Porter said. “Now is a good time to focus on my family and my return to the private sector. Effectively managing the agency as Chairman, updating Commission rules and regulations, and continuing the diligent work of the Eagle Ford Shale Task Force will be the top priorities for the remainder of my term,” he said.

Patterson told QR he is making calls and trying to figure out what kind of support he would have if he announced for the seat.

“My experience is deep and wide. I will be able to perform the duties of Railroad Commissioner on day one,” Patterson said.

Patterson was fourth out of four in the running for lieutenant governor in the spring of 2014, and threw barbs at Dan Patrick in the runoff.  He's always been known as a straight shooter, but this is the season of Trump for Texas Republicans, and Patterson hasn't demonstrated enough meanness in the recent past.  Porter already had two low-grade contenders -- see here -- for his seat.

Update: Current GOP state Rep. Jim Keffer and former state rep Wayne Christian -- who mounted a failed bid for the RRC two years ago -- are also reported to be in or close to getting in.

-- The strongest liberal Democrat in the Texas House pulls the chain.

State Rep. Elliott Naishtat won’t run for reelection after all.

After indicating last week that he wouldn’t run and then saying earlier this week that he would, the 70-year-old Austin Democrat said Thursday that he is withdrawing his name from the ballot.

[...]

Naishtat called several local Democrats who may be interested in his seat to tell them about his decision. Potential candidates include: political consultant Katie Naranjo, Austin school board President Gina Hinojosa and legislative aide Huey Rey Fischer. Austin City Council Member Ann Kitchen, who was rumored to be mulling a run, said Thursday she will not get in the race.

Naishtat had a minor health scare in the summer of 2014, so this may have figured into his back-and-forth about serving another two years at 70.  He wasn't one of those Texas House Dems who voted against Denton's fracking ban, nor has he endorsed a Republican for Houston city council.  He was always the guy who could be relied on as a progressive who voted his conscience over political expediency.  Like Lon Burnham, he'll be greatly missed in Austin.  Big shoes to fill for whichever of those challengers emerges from the primary.

Update: Naranjo is out, Fischer is in, and several more ins and outs from Harold Cook.

Some of yesterday's enduring images

Today's "Hillary Clinton is terrible" post

But there is some sunshine at the end for New Democrats.

A couple points to ponder, and a reminder that with the SCOTUS about to decide on one man/one vote, how critical it is for Democrats, new and old and otherwise, to figure out how to motivate non-voters.

Anybody want to answer some questions?

This one will just make you mad.  Maybe as angry as a Trumpublican, I don't know.

Some sharp criticism here and here of how she has conducted herself recently that demonstrate why those two guys who wrote the pieces above are so negative.

Now for the good news, Hillarians.  You can replace every single disgruntled progressive vote with perhaps as many as five or even ten Latino ones, once she taps Julian Castro as running mate and with solid Hispanic candidates downballot, like Ed Gonzalez for Harris County sheriff.  So -- really -- go ahead and tell us 20-25% or so of your former base to pound sand if we don't want to cast a ballot for Clinton.  We're old, white, and in the way.  Isn't this why you call yourselves "New" Democrats?

I think you're safe.  That is, if you can turn out the brown vote the way it needs to, and ought to be, turning out.  Maybe Marc Campos can help with that.  He's going to be a Democrat again after the mayor's race finishes on Saturday, isn't he?

Mayor's race tied, Gonzalez in for sheriff, and more *updates*

-- The unaffiliated-with-any-campaign poll shows it 38-38.

The Houston mayor's race appears to be a dead heat after the close of early voting Tuesday, according to a new poll and political experts who have reviewed ballot records, setting the stage for a four-day campaign sprint to usher voters to the polls on Saturday.

More than 113,000 voters had cast ballots by the end of early voting Tuesday. Through Monday, turnout had been concentrated in the same African-American and white conservative precincts that vaulted state Rep. Sylvester Turner and businessman Bill King into the runoff to succeed term-limited Mayor Annise Parker.

The end of early voting coincided with the release of the first independent poll of the runoff, showing Turner and King tied at 38 percent support among likely voters.

"I've never seen a race this close this late in the election," said Rice University political scientist Bob Stein, who conducted the survey for the University of Houston's Hobby Center for Public Policy on behalf of KHOU-11 and Houston Public Media.

24% of voters who describe themselves as having "already voted in the runoff, or were certain or very likely to do so" are undecided.  That's a weirdly high number of people who seemingly won't make up their minds until Saturday.   

Update: Kuff and KHOU. If you watch the video at the teevee station link, it shows that 'undecided' is actually 13% and 'refused to answer' is 11%.  This reminds me of all the undecideds in the HERO polling before the general, and as Kuff also wondered: why are people who are likely to vote refusing to answer the question?

-- Ed Gonzalez for Sheriff.  That's an early Christmas present for local Democrats.

City Councilman Ed Gonzalez,  an 18-year Houston Police Department veteran, announced Tuesday that he will run for Harris County Sheriff next year.

Gonzalez is finishing his third and final term as councilman of District H, the majority Hispanic district that includes the Near Northside and the Woodland Heights, in addition to some neighborhoods north of the 610 Loop. Gonzalez currently serves as mayor pro tem and chairs the council's Public Safety and Homeland Security Committee.

"My passion has always been public safety, it's been kind of my wheelhouse," Gonzalez said. "It's something that I just feel, as a someone who cares about public safety, I want to continue to serve in this capacity. ..."

Gonzalez has a big mess to clean up over there, but you can rest assured that voters next November are going to assign the job to him.  With Hillary Clinton and Joaquin Castro at the top of the ticket, the Third Way Dems can ignore the protests of progressives and replace all of their votes and then some with Latinos.  (I'll have more on this shortly.)

-- Will people who do not vote continue to have representation in Congress and the state legislatures? The SCOTUS is going to let us know some time next year.

Sue Evenwel, a conservative activist from Mount Pleasant in rural Northeast Texas believes it isn't necessarily fair to have the same number of people in every legislative district in the state.

She thinks the Texas state Senate map should be based on the number of eligible voters instead - to ensure that every vote counts the same. Last year, she and another conservative voter from Montgomery County sued the state in an attempt to force it to change the way it draws its legislative districts.

On Tuesday, U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in her case, a challenge that has become a national flashpoint in the debate over minority voting rights and undocumented immigrants.

The arguments were closely watched by activists on both sides of the political divide, particularly by Hispanic groups who say her plan would dilute the Latino vote by excluding children, legal permanent residents and those brought into the country illegally as children.

Analysts say it would also greatly diminish the political clout of Democratic-leaning cities like Houston, while increasing the influence of rural white voters who skew Republican.

For the justices who will rule on her challenge, the case also raised fundamental questions about the very nature of political representation in a democracy.

"Well, it is called one-person, one vote," said Chief Justice John Roberts. "That seems designed to protect voters."

Kuff's post is a great place to find info for a deeper dive.  Taking CJ Roberts' words at face value, it seems possible that voters might be the only ones who count, but as with the gun case earlier this week, there could also be a chance for the less partisan justices to demonstrate their temperance to their freak right colleagues.

My humble O?  No matter which way the Supremes go, it makes Democrats' job to turn out their vote more critical than ever.

-- The Republican judge presiding over Ken Paxton's trial is running for the state Court of Criminal Appeals, because he thinks -- as a result of his recent experience with Paxton's lawyers -- that justice is threatened in Texas.

In legal filings and court hearings, Attorney General Ken Paxton's legal team has taken a scorched earth approach to attacking (Judge Chris) Oldner, accusing the veteran Republican jurist of orchestrating a Machiavellian plot to get Paxton indicted by the grand jury that he oversaw.

"It's a common tactic for criminal defendants; when they have reached a desperate place, they attack the process," Judge Oldner said in an exclusive interview with News 8. "They attack prosecutors, they attack law enforcement, and they'll even attack the judge."

But Paxton is no common criminal defendant. As the attorney general, he is the state's top law officer.

Paxton's legal team has accused Oldner of — among other things — improperly selecting the grand jury, entering the grand jury room when he shouldn't have, and leaking confidential grand jury information to his wife, Cissy.

Last month, Oldner announced that rather than running for his current judicial post — a job he's held for more than a decade — he was going to run for the Court of Criminal Appeals, the state's highest criminal appeals court.

"Right now, we are facing an unprecedented time," Oldner said. "The system and the integrity of the system is being attacked, and I think it's important for strong, good, ethical judges to stand up and push back against the special interests."

Oldner talks of "dark money agenda groups who use massive email lists and web sites to push an agenda."

"When you face bullies, you have to stand up and push back," he said.

Land O'Goshen, this could be a Republican I could vote for.

-- The state Republican party douchebags are going to keep fighting over secession and equal rights and a few other things nobody else in the state of Texas gives a damn about.

Anger is building among some in the Republican Party of Texas over the way the State Republican Executive Committee meeting this weekend was handled by new Chairman Tom Mechler. But others are thankful he presided over the death of a controversial ballot resolution on secession that critics said caused the state’s governing party to be a “laughing stock” for most of the past week.

The anger now festering among some conservatives is the type of ire Mechler has been largely successful in containing since he was installed earlier this year by the SREC after former Chairman Steve Munisteri retired.

But some believe Mechler’s prevention of the steam from being released now could ultimately cost him the party's top job next year when he’s expected to face a fiery challenger at the 2016 RPT Convention in the Metroplex.

Longtime observers of the inner workings of the state GOP noted that exerting control in the midst of an executive committee meeting is very different from fending off a challenge from the far right at a convention. That is especially true for a rural chairman – Mechler is a businessman from Amarillo – at a convention held in one of the state’s major cities dominated by urban and suburban delegates.

Jared Woodfill thinks he can do a better job than Mechler.  It's as big a clusterf as their presidential nominating contest.  Days like these are when it's hard to believe that Democrats are getting their asses kicked by these clowns.

Updates:

-- Should African Americans boycott Mattress Mack for his support of Bill King?

-- Marc Campos rumor-mongers that Adrian Garcia will primary Gene Green.