Sunday, October 06, 2019

Sunday "Two Scoops of Peach Mint" Funnies









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Friday, October 04, 2019

The (now twice a week!) Twenty Twenty Update


Excerpting Markos again because blind hog, acorn.

The Elizabeth Warren-Bernie Sanders wing of the party continues to tally a combined total in the mid-50s [in the Daily Kos bi-weekly straw poll], just as it has for months. Joe Biden seems to have gotten a slight sympathy or rally-around-the-flag bump in some outside polling, but we don’t see much of that here. Everything else is pretty much on-the-dot from last week. The only somewhat notable difference is Andrew Yang, but all that means is that his fan club is getting better at spamming this poll.

Kindly observe that when anyone besides his chosen one so much as slightly improves, their supporters are "spamming" his poll.  When his favorite wins, it's a reflection of the intelligence of the online community he has built.

While 60,277 votes is a lot, and close to our record high, the static results to suggest a pause in analyzing the presidential field as Impeachment rages. It would make sense, while all these candidates are presumably out and about and campaigning, it’s hard to care overly much about it as the news out of DC is so relentless and meaningful. We are witnessing history in real-time, and there’s plenty of primary campaign left to wage. We can take a break from that and focus on the more immediate threat.

But the question then becomes, does this set the field down in stone, benefiting Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren, or is it temporary? Heck, we don’t even know for sure right now whether this is a Daily Kos-only phenomenon or one that is reflecting the outside world as well.

A glance at Real Clear Politics would answer this.

Yet, while we can’t answer all those questions just yet,

LOL.  From here I'll provide corrections in [brackets].

Yet, while we can’t answer all those questions just yet, it is clear that Warren has locked down about 2/5th of the vote on this straw poll, as she’s been at that level for two [three, actually] months now. Can something knock her down? That’s always within the realm of possibility, but she’s running a picture perfect campaign [thanks to MSNBC, CNN, and now her own Snopes]. Talking to campaigns, she has the best organization in Iowa and Nevada [debatable]. She’s got home field advantage in New Hampshire [false; essentially all three front-runners can make this claim, which is why the polling gyrates wildly]. She’s lagging in South Carolina, by quite a bit, but she has started to make inroads with the Black vote (her biggest weakness, by far) and in national polling, is approaching 20% of that vote.

Warren's been cruising.  She made a punishing crackback block on Jacob Wohl yesterday on top of what has been a very good month of September.  So where are those fundraising numbers?

Sanders’ mid-teens here is the same mid-teens he’s seeing in national polling, a sort of frustrating purgatory for him. It’s enough to keep him in third place (and even some seconds here and there), but that number reflects his hardest-core base of support. He’s shed much of the 40-45% he had last cycle (and over 60% he had on Daily Kos!), with no real idea how to grow beyond that [laughably false]. Saying “I thought of that first!” isn’t a winning strategy. Because first of all, someone thought of it before him, inevitably (liberalism has been around for a long time), and second of all, most people care about the movement, not any one individual. [Tacky and incorrect.]

If Sanders was the best messenger and vehicle to enact those policies, he’d be doing better. It’s that simple. 

Most of this graf is spite, but there is no denying that Bernie engenders a lot of animosity, so Kos' remark at the end is, unfortunately, accurate.

Meanwhile, Biden doesn’t appear to be losing much of his Black support. His resilience with that vote has proven frustrating to a lagging Kamala Harris (who is retooling her campaign, one that, uh, didn’t have senior staff meetings until last month), But no one loves him or his campaign, he doesn’t draw crowds, his advisors keep him as hidden as possible to avoid the next inevitable gaffe, and his 1980s-era campaign and message are increasingly out of sync with modern today’s zeitgeist. A strong Harris [or Cory Booker] would’ve been a better bet to knock him down, taking his base of support away. Her inability to do that has given Biden extra life.

Here are three good reasons why Biden is no longer the front-runner.  It's really no mystery why the core Democratic vote, African Americans, has stuck with him so long; they roll with the establishment, always.  I saw this personally in 2008, when black Texas Democrats in the primary continued to favor Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama.  See if you think Perry Bacon at FiveThirtyEight explains it pretty well; I think he does.

Buttigieg can raise money ($19 million this last quarter), but it’s not translating to support. Not sure how it can, when he’s going around being a jackass and declaring himself the Next Joe Biden, as if that’s what anyone outside of Wall Street is clamoring for.

Boot Edge is by far the worst of the top five.  Beto has had enough of Petey's BS.


"I was really offended by those comments," O'Rourke told reporters after a gun control policy forum in Las Vegas on Wednesday. "And I think he represents a kind of politics that is focused on poll-testing and focus-group-driving and triangulating and listening to consultants, before you arrive at a position."

To this I might add: "Congressman Pot, please meet Mayor Kettle."

Let's move on to the debate next week in nine days, and the one in November.



We know already that the twelve above will appear together on one evening: Tuesday, October 15, live on CNN's various platforms.  That's too crowded.  This debate should have been split over two nights.  My feeling is that the DNC is trying to shield Biden from prolonged exposure.

(Rant: I find it ridiculous that a guy can raise $10 million fewer dollars -- using big-donor fundraisers -- than his third-place rival taking only small donations, have his eye spontaneously bleed during a debate with no one calling for him to drop out ... and still be considered the front-runner for the nomination.  "Because that's what the polls say"?  The polls that ask a few hundred people with landlines who answer their phones?  Those polls?

And this is the best way we have to survey American political opinion in 2019.  /rant)


Read ^^this Tweet thread^^ for more.

Now for some quick hits.


-- Once again, as of this morning:



-- Biden, still not getting it.

(Biden) telegraphing that he plans to attack his rivals on the debate stage for a lack of transparency into their finances. Biden is expected to go after Sen. Elizabeth Warren in particular, Bloomberg reported, for failing to disclose details of private income during the 1990s and 2000s from the types of companies that she now lambasts for “rigging the system.”

Warren, as a law professor, did consulting work for private companies that involved her bankruptcy expertise, including advising Dow Corning in 1995, involving a major settlement with women harmed by breast implants. Warren has released her tax returns dating back to 2008.

Biden may be looking to hammer her for hypocrisy, but his charge of a lack of transparency is badly undercut by his own financial opacity -- not decades ago, but in the last two years. Since leaving the White House, Biden, long proud of his wealth ranking near the bottom of the U.S. Senate, began delivering high-dollar speeches to well-heeled clients and raked in book revenue that elevated him well into the upper class. He earned some $15.6 million in the last two years alone, according to financial disclosures released by his campaign.


-- One of the worst things about a truly bad Kamala Harris campaign is that the even more awful puppeteers manipulating her strings are soon going to have to pick another shitty candidate.  My bet is on Boot Edge.


-- A Heart Bern update.


Someone had Tweeted -- and I had reTweeted -- that he had been released yesterday from the Las Vegas hospital that performed his stent procedure.  That, reported by the Fox affiliate in that city, appears to be false, given the information above.


-- The Guardian profiles Mark Charles.
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Thursday, October 03, 2019

Turner's challengers roast him in #HouMayor debate


Mayor Sylvester Turner’s opponents came out swinging at the first televised mayoral debate of the election, accusing him of mismanaging a pay dispute with Houston firefighters, slow-walking flood recovery and overseeing a culture of corruption at City Hall -- charges the mayor emphatically denied.

With his opponents criticizing him on nearly every question, Turner defended his approach to the firefighters’ push for pay parity with police and said the sluggish pace of Hurricane Harvey recovery largely stems from delays within the federal government.

On the corruption allegations, pushed most aggressively by Tony Buzbee, Turner said the millionaire lawyer and businessman -- who is self-funding his campaign -- is “trying to buy City Hall.”

The mayor then issued a fresh attack, criticizing Buzbee for an incident in which a federal judge removed Buzbee’s law firm from 85 cases involving a judge who maintained close ties with Buzbee and his law partners.

You can watch that exchange here:


Update: You can view the hour-long debate here.  For a few short video takes, see here.

I did not get the sense that Turner or Buzbee, the polling leaders, helped themselves last night.  Bill King and Sue Lovell looked and sounded more 'executive', shall I say.  And I'll posit that any Democrats inclined to consider not voting for Mayor Sly might feel better about a Dwight Boykins or a Lovell vote after watching ... unless they are of that scared variety of Donkey that doesn't want to see two Republicans in the runoff.

In other words, a vote for Turner being sorta like a vote for Joe Biden.

As for the remainders and their lawsuit ... *ahem*

Though 12 candidates are running for mayor, a moderator said the host networks -- ABC 13 and Univision 45 -- narrowed the field to the top five fundraisers: Turner, Buzbee, King, Boykins, and Lovell. The state of the race has recently come into sharper focus with a poll that found Turner leading the field with 37 percent of the vote, followed by Buzbee at 20 percent and King at 10.

As I mentioned back here, I'm still deciding between Lovell and Derrick Broze.  I have a few more weeks to choose.
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Wednesday, October 02, 2019

"Sorry to disappoint..."



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Twenty Twenty Update: Money Matters

The mother's milk of consultants, spinmeisters, pollsters, and those that love them has the punditocracy all squirming for a teat this week.

But maybe we should consider impeachment first?

Americans are about evenly split over impeaching President Donald Trump and removing him from office, as support for that move has risen among independents and Republicans, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after the announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry by House Democrats last week.

About half, 47%, support impeaching the President and removing him from office, up from 41% who felt that way in a CNN poll in May. The current level matches the high point for impeaching Trump in previous CNN polling -- 47% said they felt that way in September 2018.

Indeed the tide and the sea has changed, quickly, and continues to do so even as this is blogged.  And we'll wait to see if the next debate spends too much time talking about it, at the expense of -- in my and Ted Rall's opinion -- more important topics.

-- With respect to Cory Booker and Julian Castro, the two candidates who threatened to leave us last week if they didn't meet their cash targets ...

(Booker) raised more than $6 million over the last three months, with a third of that coming in the past 10 days after he warned he would have to drop out of the Democratic presidential race if he didn't take in more cash by Monday's fundraising deadline.

Despite that flood of money, Booker says he still needs more. His campaign is pressing donors to contribute $3 million in the month of October alone to help cover a budget they predict will surpass $7 million for the final quarter of the year.

So the "Going Out of Business" sale will last at least another thirty days.


Psyche, all you Castro donors.

-- Something's Berning.


Somebodies don't like it.





Have we had enough of that?


-- That's enough obsessing over filthy lucre for me, but let's note this.


Also note that all these people are Jewish, and we're in the middle of the High Holy Days.


I just don't have any words.

-- Happening today:


Note that the times listed are Pacific.  Underneath this is a tweet from Mark Charles requesting inclusion, and another listing the Libertarian potential nominees.  I'll leave that to your discovery.

-- Should we be surprised?


Another update on Friday, with more on the next debate.
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Monday, September 30, 2019

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance has a 'perfect' roundup of the best blog posts, Tweets, and news about and around Texas from last week ... as you can see from the transcripts.


The Texas Tribune held their annual #TribFest, gathering every establishment politician, politico, and talking head, along with insiders, geeks, groupies and wannabes from across the country.  There was lots of sitting, talking, chatting, Tweeting, rumor-mongering, pontificating, scoffing, laughing, eating of tacos, and drinking of spirits ... followed by more guffaws and snorts.

Everybody who is allegedly anybody was supposedly there.

With so many of the state's political elites on both sides playing power glad-handing and ass-grabbing games (perhaps less of the latter than in years past), there was little for their reporters to cover beyond the relentless self-promotion and 'brand-building'.  But the Wrangle ropes the dopes anyway.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and DCCC chair Cheri Bustos circled the wagons around Henry Cuellar.

During appearances this weekend in Austin, including at The Texas Tribune Festival, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Cheri Bustos, the head of the House Democrats' campaign arm, lavished praise on Cuellar, and Bustos said more than once that she was not concerned about his reelection prospects.

"Henry Cuellar knows that district like the back of his hand," Bustos said Saturday at a briefing for reporters. "I completely support him. ... He has very good relationships with the vast majority of his colleagues -- who are supportive of him -- and I think he'll be fine."

Cuellar is being challenged by Laredo attorney Jessica Cisneros, who has the backing of Justice Democrats, the progressive group well-known for helping elect freshman U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Cisneros is arguing Cuellar is too moderate [sic] for the 28th District, calling him President Donald "Trump's favorite Democrat." Cuellar is denouncing the challenge as meddling by out-of-state partisans who do not truly understand the district.

Speaking hours after Bustos at the festival, Pelosi was unequivocal in her support for Cuellar, who was in the audience.

"Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, absolutely," she said, drawing scattered boos. "I'm very, very proud of Henry's work in the Congress and I'm proud to support him -- even if I didn't have a policy of endorsing incumbents."


In other Republican incumbent news, Mac Thornberry becomes the sixth member of the US House of Representatives to join the #Texodus.

The district (TX13) contains much of SD31, currently held by Sen. Kel Seliger (R-Amarillo) and all or significant portions of HD68, held by Rep. Drew Springer (R-Muenster); HD69, held by Rep. James Frank (R-Wichita Falls); HD86, held by Rep. John Smithee (R-Amarillo); and HD87, held by Rep. Four Price (R-Amarillo); and half of HD88, held by Rep. Ken King (R-Canadian).

John Cornyn draws another primary challenger.


From the Dallas Morning News:

The self-described Ronald Reagan Republican said he's uniquely qualified to bring a business perspective to Washington.

"Given the many challenges that America currently faces, this is the right time for a business leader to serve Texas and the country, rather than a career politician," Yancey said in news release. "Senator Cornyn has little support from conservatives across Texas. Senator Cornyn has frequently disappointed Texans with his strong alignment with both Mitch McConnell and [President Donald] Trump. He has shown repeatedly that he is a follower and a compromiser on the wrong side of an issue rather than a leader. ..."

Yancey is the chairman and CEO of Attacca International, an independent, privately held mergers and acquisitions boutique firm based in Dallas. He is the former co-owner of the Dallas Wings of the Women's National Basketball Association. ...

The banner of Yancey's news release describes him as a "moderate Republican," even as he claims that conservative Texans don't like Cornyn. A moderate Republican is likely to face an uphill battle in a primary dominated by conservatives.

Not too long ago in a conservative galaxy far, far away, Yancey would be the perfect GOP senatorial candidate.  But these are Trump's Republicans now, and Cornyn -- who just a few short years ago was the embodiment of all that Yancey claims to be -- is today nothing more than a lickspittle to the powers that be.  Together with a pending Pat Fallon challenge from his right, we may finally see the depth of loyalty Texas Republican primary voters have to Big (SuckUp) John.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston reported from a protest near state Rep. Briscoe "Little Baby" Cain's home.  The TSTA Blog reminded that voters -- mostly independents and those not aligned with the two-party duopoly -- will have the last word on Trump's fate.  And Sanford Nowlin at the San Antonio Current examined the effects of impeachment on San Antonio-area Congressional races.


With the first polling of Houston residents in the mayor's race now released, KHOU and HPM's Bob Stein break down the results.


Kuff discussed what he perceived to be the motives behind several Texas counties' plans to raise property tax rates.  Tory Gattis at Houston Strategies answers the question as to whether one should vote in favor of the MetroNext 2040 referendum.


PDiddie at Brains and Eggs posted about the opening impeachment gambit and its impact on the Democrats' race for the White House, and also on the latest developments regarding the campaigns of Tulsi Gabbard, Julian Castro, and Elizabeth Warren.

Texas Rural Voices explains the Mueller report and why it's still important.




And with that, we'll move on to some lighter, non-political postings.


SocraticGadfly dips into academia and says that conspiracy thinking is a new form of Gnosticism, an ancient religious movement that crossed Jewish, early Christian and pagan boundaries.





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Sunday, September 29, 2019

Sunday Funnies










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