Friday, June 28, 2019

TKO

Alternate headline: "My time is up."


Biden's after-debate party doesn't sound like it was much fun, either (two more Tweets in the thread below, and a reply from Biden's deputy campaign manager).


So other than that, Mrs. Lincoln ... ?

#PassTheTorchJoe seems proper (all kudos to Eric Swalwell).


Although once Gropey Joe gets last rites, Swalwell and the Sanders haters will start using it on Bernie.  #LetYangSpeak is not the right hashtag.

Anyway ...

Joe Biden has been running for president on the idea that he’s the best equipped to beat Donald Trump. Tonight’s debate shed considerable doubt on that premise. If this is how he performs against his opponents on the same side of the aisle – clinging desperately to the legacy of an administration he didn’t lead – then how do we think he’ll fare against the most talented bully in American politics?

Other candidates performed impressively. Bernie Sanders had the clearest ideas on how to improve the lives of people in this country and take on vested interests hoarding wealth and power. But Kamala Harris delivered the night’s and possibly the cycle’s most powerful moment when she challenged Biden on his history of supporting racist policies and politicians. In response, he got as defensive as a grandfather going up against his kids at a Thanksgiving table, taking pains to clarify precisely which type of desegregation he opposed in the 1970s. America deserves better.

Kamala joins JuliĆ”n and maybe Booker as the underdog winners of Round One.  Harris and Warren, obviously, stand to gain the most -- followed by Bernie -- once it dawns on people that old Uncle Joe is just not up to the job.  I think Castro and Cory move up to replace the plummeting O'Rourke.
 
Buttigieg will soldier on a while longer because he is well-liked despite his glaring inexperience; Gabbard for similar and yet different reasons (higher negatives among centrists, for starters).  The fates of Gillibrand and Klobuchar, second-tier candidates who met expectations, are yet to be written.

The biggest losers beside Biden and Beto?  The two on each far side, both Wednesday and Thursday evening.  Culling this crowd down to six on two nights would be much better for everybody.  And then Jay Inslee can organize a climate change debate for the also-rans.

I'll do my Weekly Update later, possibly tomorrow, in order for the spinning to slow down and the dust to settle and maybe an early poll that reveals something.
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Thursday, June 27, 2019

Fight Night 2 (The A-Team)


From left, the roster (onstage, not in the picture above) is:

  • Author and activist Marianne Williamson
  • Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper
  • Entrepreneur Andrew Yang
  • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden
  • Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
  • California Sen. Kamala Harris
  • New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet
  • California Rep. Eric Swalwell

Due to the luck of the draw, this is effectively the marquee night for the debate -- with frontrunner Biden, second-place Sanders, and tied-for-fourth-place Harris and Buttigieg all onstage.

And all eyes will be on Biden. He’s certainly no stranger to the format; his first presidential debate was 32 years ago, and he was in several more during his 2007 campaign, as well as general election vice presidential debates in 2008 and 2012. Still, for the clear frontrunner, the pressure will be on, and his rivals will be sure to pounce on any misstep.

Sanders, for instance, will have an opportunity to make the case that his vision for the presidency would be far different -- he wants a political revolution, whereas Biden emphatically does not. Harris and Buttigieg, too, could argue that new leadership is needed for the party. But it’s not clear just how aggressive these candidates will be in attacking Biden; they could decide it’s a mistake to go too negative this early.

The two Democratic candidates without experience in political office will also be onstage on this night. Williamson, an author who has written on spirituality, has recently tried to backtrack from comments she made criticizing vaccines. Meanwhile, entrepreneur Yang will tout his plan for a universal basic income of $1,000 a month.

With most of the top-polling contenders as well as Williamson and Yang on this night, it may be more difficult for the other politicians onstage -- Gillibrand, Bennet, Hickenlooper, and Swalwell -- to stand out.

Like last night, I will put down the phone and step away from the laptop and just let the experience wash over me without feeling the urge to interact with a second, small screen.  Old school, '90's style, not so much sifting and sorting of wheat from Twitter chaff.

Seems to give me a clearer perspective for the morning-after take.
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Voy a patear te el culo

"I'm going to kick your ass".


The former San Antonio mayor had been running below the radar -- WAY below the radar -- until Wednesday night. That is likely to change after his performance, in which he was able to carve out a remarkable amount of speaking time for a candidate polling somewhere between 0% and 1%. (An hour into the debate, Castro had spoken as much as Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who is in the midteens in national polling, according to a count kept by the Washington Post. Hugely helpful!) Castro's battering of Beto O'Rourke on immigration was hard to watch (especially if you were related to O'Rourke), but a clear win for Castro.

Even the TexTrib poll, reported in the Wrangle ten days ago, showed Castro tied with Tulsi Gabbard here in Deep-In-The-Hearta, with 3% apiece.  This is -- should be -- the moment we mark as Beto's final mistake.  He was never tough enough to take on Ted Cruz, and when JuliĆ”n punched him in the nose last night, he reeled around the ring and toppled over.  Good night, Bob.

Tulsi also whipped some white man culo.

Gabbard, an Iraq War veteran and frequent critic of U.S. foreign policy, shot back at (Ohio Cong. Tim) Ryan after he said the United States needs to stay "engaged" in hotspots like Afghanistan.

"As a soldier, I will tell you that answer is unacceptable," Gabbard said, urging the U.S. to pull back and focus on America.

"When we weren’t there, they started flying planes into our buildings," Ryan replied. "If we go in there and say we want to withdraw from the world -- that’s what President Trump is saying."

Gabbard noted it was Al Qaeda, not the Taliban, that attacked the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001, and said, "The Taliban was there long before we got in and will be there long after we leave."


(What is the 'Rachel Madcow smear'?  Glad you asked.)

So while Trump, Joe Biden, and Liz Warren -- the elephants in the room -- escaped unscathed, some people won by not losing.  Not Chuck Todd, however. 

Some of these ten will now fade away (we all hope).


Look for a preview of Fight Night 2 later this afternoon.
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Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Fight Night (hopefully not Fright Night)


Arranged from left (with the best-polling candidates in the middle), the lineup for Wednesday night’s first debate is:

  1. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio
  2. Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan
  3. Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary JuliƔn Castro
  4. New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
  5. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
  6. Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke
  7. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
  8. Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
  9. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee
  10. Former Maryland Rep. John Delaney

Recent polling suggests that a shitload of Democrats don't know who these candidates are, much less what they stand for.

Only 22% of Democrats registered to vote say they know a lot about the candidates’ positions, while 62% say they know a little. And only 35% say they’re paying close attention to the campaign, with almost two-thirds saying they’re paying some or no attention.

“It’s kind of a blur,” said Maggie Banks, 32, of suburban Denver, who has two young children and only has a chance to glean a few details about the race while listening to National Public Radio during her commute.

Banks said she has only a “vague” idea of who’s running and didn’t realize her state’s senior senator, Michael Bennet, or former governor John Hickenlooper were in the race.

Odds are we'll get to late October 2020, and the media will find a few 'Muricans in a Walmart parking lot who, when asked, scratch themselves and look confused and say, "I'm undecided" about whether to vote for Trump or whichever Democrat gets nominated.  And the rest of us will scream, or roll our eyes, or grit our teeth, or react in some way that communicates our full disgust.

Ultra-low information voters might be the bane of democracy's existence.

But here, among the allegedly well-informed in early primary season -- the 'changing room' segment of the cycle -- everyone who cares about what the Donks are doing could at least be open-minded enough to try on different candidates for a good fit.  Yes or no?

I mean, if you're "vote blue no matter who", then why do you care who wins the primary?


-- Do policies matter ... or just 'defeat Trump'?  Of those ten facing off tonight, Warren is most certainly demonstrating the former premise is the right path.  Even if her policies originated as *ahem* someone else's.

-- Is So-and-So just too grouchy, or out of touch, or inexperienced, or old, or young, or too conservative or moderate or liberal or progressive for me?  What's my 'Goldilocks zone'?

Yes, the media will pick the president if you let them.  The corporate talking heads inform, but also distort with their own bias.  That's why you might be better off with CSPAN whenever they are an option.  (They are not, tonight and tomorrow night.)  Maybe turn off the post-debate spinmeisters, and ignore the Thursday morning quarterbacking ... which, naturally, I'll be doing.  (Calling the game, not passing over it, that is).  With regard to social media, Twitter is a cesspool, and also invaluable for the very latest breaking news and often the most insightful analysis, as well as being wickedly sharp, brevity being the soul and all that.

CNN sucks, except when it doesn't.  MSDNC is a bunch of cheerleaders except when they aren't.  Fox is Fox unless you're watching Sheperd Smith.  Anybody been checking FrontPageLive, former Fox reporter-turned critic Carl Cameron's new venture?

Your personal, customized filters are automatically engaged, but for Doorknob's sake be aware of your biases and try not to get stuck in your silos.
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Monday, June 24, 2019

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance needs this weekend to recover from its Pride partying this past weekend to be ready for the long Independence Day weekend.  Weekend after next.



Here's your round-up of the best of the left of and about Deep-In-The-Hearta from last week!

Wednesday evening's first Democratic debate features the two Texans, Beto O'Rourke and JuliĆ”n Castro.  Both have some work to do to move into the first tier of front-runners.  PDiddie at Brains and Eggs updated his regular weekly post about the primary race on Sunday, after the South Carolina Democratic convention took place.

State Sen. Royce West remains the leader in the hottest rumored 'next contestant' parlor game in the run-up to the "Beat John Cornyn in 2020" sweepstakes.

Asked for comment Friday (June21), West said in a text message, "I'll make a decision whether to run next month."


Texas Monthly's "Best and Worst Legislators" contained few surprises to those of us who followed the past session closely.

News about the wretched conditions that migrants being held by Trump's ICE are forced to endure continues to be a national topic.  A Twitter war broke out over whether 'concentration camps' was the right phrase to describe the facilities, an indication that the moral, Christian, Golden Rule values espoused by the administration are a fraud.  But some organizations are pitching in to help.

The 2020 Census will be the next big test for Texas children, writes Better Texas Blog, and as the Lone Star State continues to be among the ten worst for kids in the nation in overall child well-being, an undercount will leave more children underserved.

Texas Latinos will soon be the state's largest ethnic group, Stephen Young at the Dallas Observer blogs, which helps explain why the TXGOP is working so hard to suppress their vote.

Off the Kuff laments the sweetheart deal Ken Paxton keeps getting from the criminal justice system.

Socratic Gadfly notes that -- as most recently illustrated by the Assange arrest -- the media, the courts and the public all alike are often selective in their support of all five freedoms of the First Amendment.

Jef Rouner stays on top of the Communism situation in The Woodlands.

Bill Dawson at Texas Climate News says these hot summer nights we're experiencing across the state are getting hotter as climate change progresses.  Christopher Collins at the Texas Observer reports that nearly 500,000 Texans live in communities with contaminated water, and our Congress critters aren't doing much about it.

Laredo residents will be able to participate locally in the award-winning film preservation program "Texas Film Round-Up" in July.  LareDOS has more details.

Through a partnership with the Texas Film Commission, the Texas Film Round-Up provides free digitization for films and videotapes, including local commercials, home movies, industrial films, and educational documentaries to preserve Texas media heritage. To qualify for free digitization, the films and videos must be Texas related, and participants must be willing to donate a digital copy of their materials to the project. The materials will be digitized in Austin and returned by mail to the owners, along with a digital copy.

Texas Leftist debuts posting a transcript of his Ingressive Voices podcast.

Zachery Taylor publishes his summer reading list of books from the progressive underground.

Harry Hamid has a tale of being auctioned as a slave by King Cicada.

Mariann G. Wizard at The Rag Blog posts about the memorial service for Austin newspaper publisher Akwasi Evans, who passed in April and whose life was celebrated yesterday.

Akwasi Evans, right, and Mariann Wizard at Marilyn Buck benefit, June 25, 2010, in Austin. 
Photo by Alan Pogue / The Rag Blog


In Texas Standard's news round-up of June 21, authorities in the Dominican Republic say that a Texas man is the accused ringleader of the shooting of baseball star David Ortiz, and that Ortiz was not even the intended victim.

Finally, Susie Tommaney at the Houston Press has a long list of Fourth of July events in the and around the Bayou City.
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Sunday, June 23, 2019

The Weekly Twenty Twenty Update

(Ed. note: This Update replaces Friday's post, abbreviated by Trump's Iran bombing fake-out.)


The gloves came off last week, but everybody played nice to a greater degree at yesterday's #ClyburnFishFry in Columbia, SC.  That news -- owned by MSNBC to the consternation of everybody else, including CPAN -- fills up the blanks in my earlier-posted Top Ten.  I'll have more no later than Wednesday morning to preview Debate Night #1, a post Thursday morning that highlights the best and worst of the kids' table scrum along with an advance of the main event that evening, and then next Friday's usual Donkey Scramble update.

1. Joe Biden

It sure looked like Abe Simpson was losing his grip on the lead, but South Carolina's black Democrats are saving Uncle Joe's bacon grease.


Former Vice President Joe Biden faced a torrent of criticism from his Democratic opponents and elsewhere this week after he evoked his past working relationships with two well-known segregationists as proof of a time when politics had more “civility.”

Sen. Kamala Harris said she was “deeply” concerned by Biden’s comments. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said they showed Biden was “out of step with the values of the modern Democratic Party.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren said while she would not criticize her fellow Democrats, it was “never OK to celebrate segregationists.” Sen. Cory Booker demanded an apology.

Miles White, 61, would like Biden to explain himself a bit more. But he doesn’t think Biden’s comments were malicious, and he certainly isn’t ready to take Biden out of his list of top presidential candidates.

“At this point, I give him the benefit of the doubt,” White said. “I don’t think he meant them the way they came out.”

White, a black man, was one of thousands of South Carolinians who attended House Majority Whip James Clyburn’s 'World Famous Fish Fry' in the state capital on Friday evening. The annual event drew more than 20 Democratic presidential candidates, who each hoped to win over not only South Carolina voters, but also Clyburn, the highest ranking African American in Congress.

For now, Biden remains the clear front-runner in South Carolina, where Democratic primary voters are predominantly black. He received the support of 37% those surveyed for a recent state poll, down from May but still far ahead of Warren, who trailed in a distant second at 17%.

Biden played up his South Carolina bona fides on Friday. He referred to Clyburn as the “highest ranking African American in the history of the United States of America, other than the guy I worked with for eight years,” and noted it was his third time at the fish fry and that he has already been all over the state.

“It seems like I’ve lived in South Carolina,” Biden added.

At the fish fry, voters seemed largely excited for and forgiving of Biden. At the start of the event, Biden received one of the largest applauses of the night. Afterward, he took selfies long into the night.

More on Biden's staying power from Politico, the WSJ, and Yahoo.

2. Elizabeth Warren

Yep, she's passed Bernie, and not just in South Carolina, and not only at his polling expense.  Let's read Chris Weigant (I disagree with many of his assessments, but not this one):

(T)he much more interesting dynamic -- one that will play out over the next four or five months, no doubt -- is between Warren and Bernie Sanders. Sanders has also lost a bit of support over the past few weeks, although not nearly as dramatically as Biden's slump. And, once again, the only candidate to pick up such support seems to be Warren. This could turn out to be much more significant in the long run. Sanders and Warren are clearly targeting the same ideological voters within the Democratic ranks. Many progressives are already torn between the two. Bernie started the revolution, but he's also got a lot of baggage by this point (such as how former Hillary fanatics still feel about him). Warren is fresher, but has stumbling blocks of her own to overcome. [...]

Warren's recent surge has put her into direct competition with Sanders. In a handful of state polls and at least one national poll, Warren has emerged in second place to Biden. Sanders is still close behind her in third, but the fact that Warren is now so competitive is indeed newsworthy, because so far she's the only one to break into the top ranks in such a fashion.

To date, only four Democrats have even registered in double digits in the Real Clear Politics polling averages. Biden and Bernie, of course, have always been far above 10 percent. Kamala Harris managed to get into the low teens during her announcement bump, but then slid back down into single digits. But last week, Elizabeth Warren broke the 10 percent barrier for the first time, as her trendline turned sharply upwards. She's still behind Bernie in the rolling average, but not by that much. And, notably, she's scoring second place finishes in the polling in some of the key early-voting states such as Iowa and South Carolina.

So, heading into the first debates, the contest stands as Biden still far out front, followed by a contest between Sanders and Warren for who will emerge in second place.

To be clear, everything I excerpted I find accurate, and nearly everything else at Weigant's link I do not.  For example, there are demonstrable and, I submit, insurmountable differences between Warren and Sanders on policy and ideology.




See ^this man's Tweet timeline^ for more examples.  It is either ignorant or disingenuous to say there are no differences, or that the differences are negligible, between the two.  Nevertheless, that's becoming a narrative.

Liz Warren won't be a compromise candidate for Bernie Sanders supporters.  If you don't like the man because he's old, or grouchy, or because you've indoctrinated any variety of the lies being repeated about him -- "hezenoddaDemuhcrat' being the most pernicious -- that's one (maliciously stupid and wrong) thing.  But try to be smart enough to understand the actual differences.

Chris Weigant is right about something else: it's a shame Bernie and Elizabeth aren't sharing a stage next week.  Oh, and Slate's Surge is more than a little dumb beyond 1 and 2.

3. Bernie Sanders

Bernie maintained his torrid pace of events and speaking and television appearances throughout the week and weekend.  Still, his high negatives among Democrats for reasons mentioned above keep him from adding to his support, and in fact are resulting in the slow leakage in polling we're seeing.

The Sanders campaign has responded with a narrative that features the poll numbers that reveal Bernie consistently defeating Trump head-to-head, going back to 2016 (which, as you might suspect, scratches open a scab for the #StillWithering).

As with every other candidate, his debate performance is pivotal.  But perhaps even more so than anyone else, considering his unique position in this primary.

4, 5, 6. Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg

My perception is that just since Friday morning, Booker has gained a little and Buttigieg has lost a little.  Cory made the most hay out of Biden's segregationist gaffe, and Kamala wasn't far behind.  Mayor Pete, meanwhile, is having more racial problems at his day job.  Buttigieg had another awkward on-camera moment regarding this matter yesterday.  Not good.

Black Americans will decide the nominee.  And if Creepy Uncle Joe ever screws up enough to make the olds abandon him, it's going to be a real scramble.

7. Beto O'Rourke

Still trying to find his lane.  If Buttigieg continues to reveal himself as the flash in the pan I've always thought he was, O'Rourke seems like the natural beneficiary.  You know; white, calf-crampy in that non-threatening kind of way, liberal but not too liberal, and so on like that.  The whole bland, milquetoast, Goldilocks moderate package.

8, 9. Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand

Klobuchar is in stable condition.  Gillibrand wins on a viral Tweet.


Be sure and read the replies there, where even Kamala Harris' husband gives kudos to Kirsten for her candor.  (Too much alliteration?)

10. Rest of the field.
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