Updates to yesterday's "Last minute Houston elections developments"

Too many to add there so we start fresh.

-- Sometimes I have a little trouble understanding what these two guys are trying to say with respect to voter turnout, and wish for an executive summary.  The dude at the newspaper isn't much more helpful in telling us -- or maybe just me -- What It All Means.

So what I'm divining from all this number-crunching is that voter turnout is goosed up a little all over town, and particularly in Republican strongholds that ring the city.  If Election Day turnout is good -- most of the cautions about turnout note behavior modification, i.e. former ED voters now casting ballots early -- especially in Democratic neighborhoods like Meyerland  (see Kuff about this in the link above), then things might look better for the blue team.  But we can't really know until Stan Stanart flashes some Election Day numbers to HarrisVotes.com, and that might not happen until 9 p.m. (as is his typical).  The five-day weather forecast predicts a rainout for Halloween activities but a gorgeous day on Tuesday.

So in the meantime, work those phones to GOTV, you pizza-eating millennials.

-- The ReBuild Houston referendum was invalidated by a state judge yesterday.

Visiting Judge Buddie Hahn ordered the city to hold a new election on the drainage fee, though that is unlikely to happen any time soon if the city appeals the decision. Hahn sided with a ruling issued by the Texas Supreme Court in June that said the city had obscured the ballot language surrounding the drainage fee, a major funding source for ReBuild Houston.

By omitting the drainage fee, the Supreme Court said, the city failed to adequately inform voters about the intent of the ballot measure.

In a brief court hearing Thursday, Hahn said he had little discretion because the "Supreme Court has just about said as a matter of law" that the election should be voided.

"Has just about said".  That sho' nuff is a Texas judge talkin'.  This is a late hit on the prospects for Steve Costello, the godfather of drainage in H-Town, but the Republican who is most unlikely to be in the runoff for mayor.

And yes, fodder for debates between the two of the four below that are.

-- Watch Isiah Carey's 30-minute forum taped last night with Chris Bell, Adrian Garcia, Bill King, and Sylvester Turner at this link.  And for a couple of good laughs, turn on the subtitles for "lost in translation" errors.

-- HERO added endorsements from Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and Hillary Clinton yesterday alongside the one from Sally Field.  The Houston Unites supporters are worried about being outspent by the haters on teevee, so throw a few bucks their way.

Last minute Houston election developments

Did you get your vote on yet?

-- Via Free Press Houston, the most progressive candidate in the running to be Houston's next mayor talks about "cite and release," a law enforcement policy that would keep first-time offenders out of jail on small-quantity marijuana possession charges.



Sylvester Turner passed on the question "like a hot roach" (as NewsFix Now has related) at the beginning of this year's legislative session, but seems to be evolving, much as he has on marriage equality.  The rest of the field stands in opposition to local control of this kind.  Should make your choice somewhat easier, yes?

-- I received the Houston Black Dems slate card this week, and not only did they endorse the worst candidate for controller running, Carroll Robinson, but also picked Michael Kubosh, a Republican, over three better progressive options.  They inexplicably made no recommendation in AL 2.

These two endorsements of Robinson and Kubosh are the crappiest I have seen in this cycle (and there have been a few misfires on the HGLBT Caucus slate, by the Chronicle and others).  The rotund council member who voted against HERO has worked pretty hard to suck up to the black vote.  Republicans have both castigated and defended Kubosh -- sometimes comically -- in previous elections because of his association with the African American community.

Some in that community have bought what this scoundrel is selling.  It's going to make ousting him all the more difficult.

-- By the way, Fox 26's Isiah Carey -- in the Kubosh photos linked above and at his birthday party last week -- is hosting an 'Uncensored' mayoral forum tonight with "the top 4 candidates only who we determined" (scroll to the bottom): Bell, Garcia, Turner, and King.

-- She's not Beyonce', but The Flying Nun Norma Rae the lady who was married to Mrs. Doubtfire came to Houston to endorse HERO.  We could still use a few more heroes, just to be safe (pun on the haters intended).

Republicans find something new to be angry about

Debates.  Moderators.  Questions.  The media generally.

Republican presidential candidates and their party leadership sharply criticized CNBC moderators who hosted Wednesday night’s debate, and Ted Cruz said the event showed "why the American people don't trust the media".

At the conclusion of the two-hour event in Boulder, Colorado, Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus derided the moderators and their questions - an unusual move for the leader of the party that sanctioned the event for candidates seeking the party's nomination for the November 2016 election.

The audience even booed a follow-up question to Ben Carson about his business relationship with a shady vitamin outfit (based in Texas, no surprise).  The exchange:

Carson has been tied to Mannatech, a nutritional-supplement company based in Texas. He appeared in a promotional video and spoke at two conferences hosted by the company, whose supplements have come under fire.

"This is a company called Mannatech, a maker of nutritional supplement, with which you had a 10-year relationship. They offered claims that they could cure autism, cancer. They paid $7 million to settle a deceptive marketing lawsuit in Texas. And yet your involvement continued, why?" CNBC's Carl Quintanilla asked Carson, also questioning whether it spoke to his "vetting process or judgment."

Carson dismissed the question.

"That's easy to answer. I didn't have an involvement with them. Total propaganda. I did a couple speeches for them. I did speeches for other people — they were paid speeches. It is absolutely absurd to say that I had any kind of relationship with them. Do I take the product? Yes. I think it's a good product," he said.

The moderator then pointed out that Carson was on the company's webpage. Carson said he didn't give them permission to do that.

After the audience loudly booed the follow-up question, Carson simply said: "They know."

The audience cheered.

CNBC quickly cut to a commercial.  Even Fat Bastard got in on the smackdown. 

"Do you want me to answer or do you want to answer?" he said. "Because, I've got to tell you the truth, even in New Jersey what you're doing is called rude."

Well, he would certainly be the expert.  I've never  -- never -- left watching a debate early, but twenty minutes from the finish line, and further annoyed by the simpering of like-minded, butthurt conservatives on Twitter, I threw in the towel. 

Hey, boys and girl: it's not us.  It's you.  It's your stupidity any arrogance and obnoxious behavior all rolled up into a tiny fist you're shaking at the clouds.  You're not just morons, you're assholes too.

Even one of your brethren at the JV debate gets it, fer crine out loud.

“One of the things that troubles me about the Republican Party is too often we question science that everyone accepts,” (former NY Gov. George Pataki) said during the CNBC economic policy debate.

“It’s ridiculous that in the 21st century, we’re questioning whether or not vaccines are the appropriate way to go,” he continued. “Of course they are. And it’s also not appropriate to think that human activity — putting CO2 into the atmosphere — doesn’t make the earth warmer.”

I guess this is why he doesn't register in the polling.  He's sane.  The mods were nonplussed about the vitriol spewed at them afterwards.

Wednesday night’s event was moderated by CNBC’s Becky Quick, John Harwood and Carl Quintanilla. The audience booed loudly at them several times - sometimes at the encouragement of the candidates.

“There were a lot of conservatives urging them to go hard after the media and that’s what they did,” Harwood said in response to the criticism. He argued that moderators were needed to ask the candidates hard questions about economic policy.

The moderators had little tolerance for candidates trying to interject and respond to another candidate’s answer, frequently cutting off anyone who tried to chime in. That, in turn, drew more jeers from the audience and criticism from the candidates.

It's a long-standing beef, these hurt feelings between Republican presidential candidates, debate moderators, formats, etc.  Remember that Rubio and Christie even whined about their green room accommodations beforehand, and besides Cruz, Trump got in a few good licks about the event while it was happening.

When former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee was asked whether Donald Trump has the “moral authority” to be president, the crowd booed.

“Such a nasty question,” Trump said in response.

More...

In his closing statement Donald Trump chastised the network for trying to extend the debate past the two-hour mark, which he and Carson had teamed up to stop.

"In about two minutes I renegotiated it down to two hours so we could get the hell out of here," he bragged.

The candidates were joined afterward by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus, who told reporters he felt the debate had included too many "gotcha" questions.

"I'm disappointed at the moderators and I'm pretty disappointed at CNBC," he said.

Priebus added that he felt the moderators had done "a disservice to their network, our candidates, and voters."

All of the bitching and moaning can be summed in the one-line response from the network.

NBC spokesman Brian Steel responded with a one-sentence statement: "People who want to be president of the United States should be able to answer tough questions."

Yes, I believe that's really the complaint, isn't it?  If you care to see how the conservative media is reacting... well, it's worse than this, naturally.

After a performance by CNBC moderators that Republicans characterized as both biased and inept, a manager for a top GOP campaign says he will try to organize other campaigns to force the Republican National Committee to make "wholesale change" in the debate process.

In an interview shortly after the debate, Barry Bennett, manager of the Ben Carson campaign, called the session here in Colorado "unfair to everyone" and said the current debate structure should not remain in place. "I think the families need to get together here, because these debates as structured by the RNC are not helping the party," Bennett said. "There's not enough time to talk about your plans, there's no presentation. It's just a slugfest. All we do is change moderators. And the trendline is horrific. ..."

I admire the Mafia reference.  That's some truth.

In coming days there will be many more denunciations of CNBC. But for the campaigns, the bigger issue could be the party. In an effort to avoid repeating the perceived problems of 2012, Priebus took control of the debate process. Now, if the Carson campaign and others unite, Priebus could lose some of that control.

I'll look forward to debates that focus exclusively on whatever the candidates want to talk about: whether that's a border wall, or denying the existence of climate change, that vaccines cause autism, that Planned Parenthood needs to be destroyed and so on and so forth.  You know, matters of serious concern not to the nation but just the GOP base of angry white guys.  I'll anticipate that they will have moderators who'll ask them tough questions, like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh.   And I hope it will all be televised on Fox, so I don't have to watch anything but the Twitter feed of circle-jerking conservatives isolated in their giant soap bubble, mansplaining everything to the rest of the world.

It's a shame Jeb Bush won't be there, isn't it?

Third GOP debate tonight as Carson rises, Trump and Bush falter

The Republican candidates for president will gather Wednesday for their third debate amid fresh volatility in an already chaotic race, with Ben Carson surging past Donald Trump in Iowa and one-time front-runner Jeb Bush under pressure to prove he's still a viable candidate for the GOP nomination.

We'll hope for fireworks, but the two guys going in opposite directions are pretty low energy.

The soft-spoken Carson has been a low-key presence in the first two GOP debates, but the retired neurosurgeon is likely to get more attention from moderators — as well as his fellow candidates — after a series of preference polls show him atop the field in Iowa.

Trump has already shown he's eager to take on Carson, jabbing him for his speaking style and raising questions about his Seventh Day Adventist faith.

"We'll see how Ben holds up to the scrutiny," Trump said Tuesday on MSNBC.

Sounds like fun.  As Jeb spent the weekend here in Houston with the clan, and they all spent the weekend on the phone dialing for dollars, most of us see a ship with its ass high up in the air.

Meanwhile, Bush will be grasping for momentum after one of the most trying stretches of his White House campaign. Slower-than-expected fundraising has led Bush to slash spending and overhaul his campaign structure, and he's voiced frustration with the way the unusual race has progressed.

If the election is going to be about fighting to get nothing done, he says, "I don't want any part of it."

Cya!

Early on in the campaign, he tapped his father's campaign finance network, and they gave ... but now, they've given to the limit, and he's not collecting new donors. The base of the party has turned its collective back on him. His cash flow is an ebb tide; in the third quarter fundraising period, he spent nearly as much as he took in, and has a pittance, given the realities of modern campaign financing, left on hand.

This is what happens you place too much emphasis on the viability of a candidate by virtue of how much in campaign funds they can raise.  Remember that the committee on endorsements for the HGLBT Caucus made this mistake, and was overruled by their membership.

On Friday - the news day when these people hope no one is looking - Bush announced a major evisceration of the campaign. Mass firings of staff members, and a 40 percent cut in payroll, including funds for travel ... and if you can't travel as a candidate, you're not a candidate; you're just a guy on TV with an exclamation point after your name on the campaign posters you can no longer afford to print.

Bush's fall is no surprise, and neither is Trump's, really.  That they are being eclipsed by a low-talking, sleepy-eyed, real black brain surgeon who seems blissfully unaware of Godwin's Law is.

While Carson is unknown to many Americans, he's built a loyal following with tea party-aligned voters and religious conservatives. His campaign has started running new television advertisements in early voting states that center on his experience as a doctor and highlight his status as a political outsider.

Carson has raised eyebrows with his incendiary comments about Muslims and references to Nazis and slavery on the campaign trail, rhetoric he's made no apologies for. His standing in early states has only appeared to strengthen with each controversial comment.

Carson's biggest weakness may be his glaring lack of specific policy proposals. The issues listed on his campaign website are vague, including a tax plan that calls for a "fairer, simpler, and more equitable" system. On foreign policy, he's said, "all options should remain on the table when dealing with international bullies," such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Carson could be pushed Wednesday on domestic policy, with debate host CNBC promising to focus on economic issues, including taxes and job growth.

With Trump after him, with his fairly glaring lack of communication skills, I don't see this as being a good night for the doctor.  As usual I'll be watching Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz for their abilities to pick up the pieces from Carson, Trump, and Bush when it becomes more apparent that they are losing causes.  With respect to Rubio...

The Florida senator’s campaign high command probably couldn’t have planned their candidate’s trajectory to this point any better. Actually, they did plan it, and they’re right where they want to be: still out of the harsh spotlight that comes with being the frontrunner but right in striking distance as the race heads into the final three months before Iowa. Rubio’s formula for these debates is incredibly simple: deliver his talking points with ease and style, crack a few jokes and flash that easy grin, and avoid squabbles with other candidates. One problem this time: Jeb Bush may be looking for a fight.

With respect to Cruz...

Cruz has been waiting a long time now for Trump and Carson to implode so he can snatch up their supporters. He can wait a while longer. He’s got plenty of cash. But of anyone in the field, he has the greatest incentive to sow doubt among conservatives about Carson’s conservative credentials. Iowa is fertile ground for Cruz, and he won’t want Carson to get too much momentum there.

I won't care much what any of the rest do or say unless it's crazy enough to make social media waves, and I'll be watching a lot more of the second game of the World Series anyway.

Update: Here's the full schedule from Mediaite.

Reading the turnout tea leaves on the mayor's race

First, this hit my mailbox yesterday.

Campos has already whined about it, so I'm just posting to let him know that an English-speaking household received it.  As he notes, the CWA, whose name is on it as sender, is supporting Sylvester Turner, and the "Vote 'No' on Adrian Garcia" piece -- which for the record is not possible; one cannot 'no' on a mayoral candidate, only for some other one -- is indeed designed to do what Turner wants it to do.

"For me, it doesn’t matter who’s in second or third," Turner said after shaking hands at a retirement community on the city's southwest side. "My deal is on November the third, I want to make sure that we’re No. 1 and that No. 2 is so far behind that it really doesn’t matter."

He's not shaking off Bill King, however, and that's the fellow all the pundits are predicting will join the former state representative in the runoff, based on the surging early vote in certain parts of town.

"We're seeing heavy early voting turnout in places like the west side and Clear Lake (which are traditional Republican strongholds)," Stein said. "We're also seeing heavy early voting turnout in African-American precincts." [...] "I assume that's due to two things: the mayor's race where Sylvester Turner's a very prominent black (candidate) and a very large number of African Americans voting for controller and at large (council seats). So I think they're moving the early vote. Any candidate who knows who their base is likes to get their vote out early."

Why conservative black voters wouldn't be turning out for Ben Hall, who has sold himself as the candidate most strongly against HERO, is part of Stein's predictive analysis based on his previous poll -- which I castigated but which has been verified to some degree by later polling -- in which he raved about King's surge, and does so again.

Meanwhile, polling has indicated Republican voters have been breaking for King over Steve Costello, who's also angling for GOP votes. So a high turnout at traditionally Republican polling places like the Trini Mendenhall Sosa Center on Houston's west side, is good news for King, Stein said.

"There were so many undecided Republican voters who were breaking in our poll very clearly towards Bill King," Stein said. "That would be a real indication that he's likely to be in the runoff."

This is the safe bet (a black Democrat, long the front-runner by every measure, and a white Republican) and we'll just wait to see if these professional prognosticators are right.   I am hoping they are wrong, and so do the supporters of Costello and Garcia, too.  Both of those last two have had their troubles.

“No question, he simply failed to respond to this, and voters penalized him accordingly," said Bob Stein, a Rice University political scientist who predicted last week that Garcia would continue to be haunted by the slide through Election Day.

[...]

"... Costello, I think, is just not able to win support from the base Republican vote that's out there that he should have been able to win as a three-term incumbent councilmember."

Down the ballot, if King makes the runoff and you have two At Large Republicans -- Michael Kubosh and Jack Christie -- in runoffs with Democrats, that December dynamic (Turner vs. King) may help them stay in office.  Both may avoid the runoff altogether if HERO is indeed driving scads of fearful, angry conservatives to the polls.  If two Democrats -- Turner and Chris Bell, Turner and Garcia -- move on to the final round, then the fortunes of those two AL CMs change entirely; Republicans without a mayoral hopeful stay home for the holiday voting.  Those two races, AL 3 and AL 5, are what I'll watch on Election Night.  Their outcomes will determine whether Democrats have a good night or not (and we may be castigating liberal non-voters again on the morning after).

Who else is helped by continued strong turnout among white conservatives and African American voters?  Perhaps Chris Oliver in AL 1, Andrew Burks and Eric Dick in AL 2, and Laurie Robinson in AL 3 4, all with a measure of name recognition and some with elected experience.  Who's hurt?  Maybe the white progressives: Lane Lewis in AL 1, incumbent David Robinson in AL 2, Doug Peterson in AL 3, and even not-Caucasian Philippe Nassif in AL 5.  GOTV efforts need to be energized now for these campaigns.

Still, the electorate for Houston municipal contests has historically skewed old, white, and Democratic, so if there's any trend left to discern, it's whether that one holds or gets revised after this election.

I'm watching things closely, just like you.

Update: Texas Leftist bemoans the missing millennial vote.

Update II: An email from the Turner campaigns ups the ante.

More than 15,000 people who haven't voted in a mayoral election in years have already voted early in this election.

We don't know why they're voting this time around, but we do know that makes this election unpredictable.

They're zombies, and they're voting against HERO, because they don't like heroes of any kind.  So for God's sake, get out there and cancel them out -- I mean, their votes.