Stocks, McCain plummet

After six consecutive days of huge losses -- the DJIA has lost nearly 35% of its value since hitting its high of 14,000 a year ago, and 10% just this week -- the markets actually look a little better this morning. But not even a half-point drop in the Fed's rate was enough to stop the bleeding yesterday as the two-hundred point loss added insult to portfolio injury. Update (4:30 pm): Oops. A 678-point crash in the final hour, due to the gloomy prospects of General Motors and the rest of the auto industry, leaves us at a 40% loss for 2008.

I'm so old I can remember when either a 50-basis-point rate cut or a 200-point decline was enough to be big financial news all by themselves.

If you have a 401K, your losses are all on paper -- like Warren Buffet's, or Boone Pickens'. Don't sell now and turn it into a real one. I'm not licensed to dispense financial advice, so don't take my words to the bank (... ugh).

If you were planning on retiring at the end of the year and cashing out ... well, you're screwed worse than anybody I can think of. You ought to rethink that.

But while the markets will eventually make a comeback, we can't say the same for John McNasty's presidential aspirations:

Three weeks of historic economic upheaval has done more than just tilt a handful of once-reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory.

Four large states McCain once seemed well-positioned to win—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida—have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states—a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events—he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.

Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states—Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada—not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri.

If I were to post my weekly EV projection early it would show Obama having captured Ohio, Florida and Nevada for a total of 338 electoral votes. But hey, I'm conservative.

(You won't see that phrase typed here very often, so mark the date.)

If this current scenario holds then the focus would turn to lengthening Obama's coattails to help Democrats down the ballot. As in everywhere across the country. But despite the good polling news and the favorable trends, Texas apparently will still not benefit, at least according to the senator responsible for getting more Democratic senators elected ...

Sen. Charles Schumer, (D-NY) head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, spoke to reporters this morning about his party's prospects for increasing their numbers this cycle. He seemed ready to count his chickens before they've hatched when he said, "The wind is more strongly at our backs than ever before."

For the record, Schumer declared Texas out of reach, as "too expensive. That's the problem."

Despite that, Schumer and the Democrats have added other previous-cycle crimson states to their target list: Georgia, North Carolina, Mississippi and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's seat in Kentucky. He went so far as to call Georgia and Kentucky "even-steven races." The DSCC put up their first ad in Kentucky today.

Adding to those states, he sees Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon and Virginia as likely pick ups.

Last night, Schumer walked that statement back, saying through a spokesperson that they are "in no way writing Texas off, and it doesn't mean that he (Noriega) won'tget some money in the future".

Tonight is the debate watch party at Noriega HQ for Rick's face-off with Big Bland John Cornyn. Noriega is closing the gap fast, and the conservatives comprising Cornyn's online mouthpieces are still seething over his yes vote on the bailout bill. Despite what Rob Jesmer thinks, Noriega is charging like Seabiscuit and is now poised to nip Corndog at the wire despite his $$$ advantage.

Senator Box Turtle is sinking. Let's throw him an anvil.

Grumpy Old Man, Part II

Those "hey-you-kids-get-off-my-lawn " jokes don't seem so funny this morning. I'm starting to feel sorry for poor old McGrouchy. I know I shouldn't...

I wasn't even aware of the outrage over "That One" until I got home and checked in online. I heard him say it but my reaction was that it was just more of the same nasty attitude he has demonstrated through two nights and three tortuous hours of "debate". I didn't see it as anything worse than everything else he has said and done to disrespect Obama. But Mrs. Diddie saw '50's-vintage racism laced within the retort.

Others also took offense, but I just don't think it was a racist remark, even subliminally by a guy who has a record of bigoted remarks.

No, McCain is just a mean old bastard. He left the hall quickly with his trophy wife following the debate, while Obama stayed long after and worked the crowd. Remember, this face-off was held in Nashville Tennessee, as red a state as they come. And during the "town hall" McCain touched the shoulder and shook the hand of a former chief petty officer who asked a question, so rapport with the audience -- even if it was superficial -- shouldn't have been his problem.

McCain is ornery, quick to judgment and self-righteous -- in other words, a classic conservative. Some would say "Maverickey".

And contrary to what he thinks about himself, I don't believe John McCain's hand is steady enough for the tiller.

Your Bingo card for tonight's debate

More here.

Update: What Obama should say tonight if the words 'Ayers' or 'Wright' fall out of McLame's mouth ...

John, your campaign has already said it intends to spend the last four weeks of this campaign mostly attacking me. And with the William Ayers thing, we have some idea of what kind of attacks to expect. But you folks at home, if you go to CNN's website -- and this is a bit of free advertising, I guess -- they have a thing called Campaign Fact Check. If you go there, and look up William Ayers, you'll see that they've called that attack FALSE, and you'll see exactly WHY it's false. And that's not my campaign saying that -- that's CNN! They're saying it's false.

That's why if it were just the two of us, if it were just Barack Obama and John McCain involved, and if there were nothing else at stake, I'd have no problem at all turning this election into a mudslinging battle. I've got plenty of mud for you, believe me.

But it's not just the two of us. The American people are also part of this, and if you drag this election down to that level, they're the ones who are gonna lose.

So for their sake, John, I'm asking you to join me in a pledge -- and I don't have any paper to sign, we'll just do it on a handshake if you agree. I'm asking you to join me in a pledge, for the last four weeks of this election, to get rid of the character assassinations, to get rid of the smears, and to run honorable campaigns that talk about the issues -- the economy, health care, Iraq, education, jobs, gas prices -- that the American people actually care about. That's the kind of campaign they deserve.

So John, will you come over here and shake my hand?