Rasmussen confirms Tribune's GOP polling: Perry leads 46-35

Evan Smith would have to be feeling quite a bit better after seeing this:

Rasmussen Reports this morning is reporting a new poll showing Gov. Rick Perry leading U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 46 percent to 35 percent in the Texas GOP primary for governor. Activist Debra Medina had 4 percent support.

Perry led Hutchison by 10 percentage points in a July Rasmussen survey, but he held only a 40 percent to 38 percent lead in September shortly after Hutchison's formal announcement for governor.

You may recall that the Texas Tribune released a similar result on Election Day that many people questioned, including myself. More from RG Ratcliffe ...

One of the more interesting factoids in the poll is that by a margin of 60 percent to 26 percent, primary voters believe Hutchison should stay in the Senate while she challenges Perry.

Despite having an important vote next week scheduled the same day as her big endorsement event with Deadeye Dick here next week, I believe sitting tight in the Senate would be the course of action a self-indulgent self-preservationist such as Kay Bailey would prudently take. After a caveat about interpreting polls results, more again from Ratcliffe ...

Hutchison's campaign has not fully engaged Perry so far. While she has been campaigning in Texas, she has only fitfully done things to get free coverage from the state's news media. Instead, she has concentrated on appearing on cable television shows that reinforces the idea that she is a Washington insider.

Is that a failing reflected by his lead, or did she demonstrate in September that when she does engage and gets state media attention that she can quickly close the gap? If the latter is the case, then the strategy of putting the race off until the final two months makes some sense.

Also, all three polls have had Perry at 46 percent support or less. Is that his ceiling? Most of the time, an incumbent with re-elect numbers below 50 percent is viewed as vulnerable.

Spot on with all of that. Here we are mid-November and still no indication from KBH when she will "come home" and begin working on earning her 'promotion', and her gubernatorial prospects continue to head south . I believe she's got until Christmas to get it turned around or give it up.

Whatever she decides, Perry remains in control of his destiny. And comments like these in Midland may even be helping him with the freak-right base who votes in Republican primaries here.

Sweet Lou preps a run for Prez

My wife laughs every time I call him that; he has set off my gaydar for years. I think he's just a bitter old queen. Anyway, he fancies himself as a Ross Perot or Pat Buchanan ...

According to these sources, Dobbs has increasingly been feeling the pressure from CNN head Jonathan Klein. The longtime CNN anchor has increasingly become a controversial flashpoint for the network, as he argues against illegal immigration and for the idea that Barack Obama might not be a legitimate citizen of the United States. His increasingly angry conservative/independent leanings stand out in stark contrast to the cable news network's more centrist approach.

As tension between Dobbs and Klein has increased over the past few months, Dobbs reportedly began seriously considering a run for political office in either 2010 or 2012. He had been rumored last year to have been considering a run for governor of New Jersey (where he is a resident). But according to sources, that was never a serious consideration.

But Dobbs apparently now feels that a run for president -- perhaps as an independent -- is a real possibility. And associates expect that in the upcoming weeks Dobbs will making a number of speeches in front of friendly crowds, in an effort to judge the public's reaction to his political ambitions. "It's not that he sees himself as a politician," says one associate. "But he honestly believes that this is his time, that he has something constructive to contribute to the political discourse."

When Dobbs annouced his departure on Wednesday's show, he told viewers that "Some leaders in the media, politics and business have been urging me to go beyond my role here at CNN and engage in constructive problem-solving."

One source I spoke with moments ago noted that while Dobbs might not be publicly committing himself to a political career, he is certainly giving it strong consideration. "He sees himself as having the same effect as a Pat Buchanan or a Ross Perot," said the source. "He sees himself as a populist and this is the time when America needs a rabble rouser from outside the normal political circles."

America needs another rabble rouser like America needs another war.