Friday, June 26, 2020

Race for the White House Update: Sleepwalking to 1600 Pennsylvania


Go back to sleep, Joe.  We'll call you.


The waiting is the hardest part

The Democratic National Convention Committee announced Wednesday that the "Convention Across America" will be "anchored in Milwaukee," moved from the arena where the Bucks play to a smaller convention center downtown.

"[S]tate delegations should not plan to travel to Milwaukee and should plan to conduct their official convention business remotely," the DNCC said.

There goes my yellow-vested vacation in Wisconsin.  They're blaming the plague, but it's a convenient excuse to avoid a historical repeat of what happened in Chicago in 1968: "the police are there to preserve disorder".

As with every other moment this cycle has produced for him, Biden went soft on cop reform.


And the climate again.


The vast majority of the uncritically thinking electorate cares nothing about what he says or does; he's not Trump, and that's all that matters.

Is that really going to be enough in the fall?

Before you declare Biden the winner, remember his lead is not insurmountable. Polls closer to November could very well show a race that is tightening. At this point in the 1988 cycle, Michael Dukakis led nationally by almost 5 points, and in 2000, George W. Bush was up by nearly 8 points. But Dukakis ended up losing by nearly 8 points in November while Bush narrowly lost the popular vote. 

Frontloading HQ appears to be doing an Electoral College update on a daily basis now, so I'll dispense with mine for the foreseeable future, unless I think there's reason enough for my insights to be worth contrasting to the statewide polling, moving averages, yadda yadda.

That leaves the veepstakes as the only parlor game left to play.  Perry Bacon at 538 has the exhaustive compendium, but it seems to me the choice among the four reported finalists is already down to Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.  And while some (mostly white) people think Warren has a good case electorally, I just don't see that happening.

Biden could pick a Black woman he feels more comfortable with -- bad pun on Carville intended -- but Kamala is going as hard after the job as she can.  It's actually kind of shameful.


In any other year, this pandering might be considered ridiculous and awful by a vast majority of the American electorate.  Not in 2020, though.

-- Trump had another really bad week, beginning in Tulsa last Saturday.


Click to the Tweet thread if the WSJ isn't letting you jump the paywall.  The Supreme Court slapped him around a bit, too.  Probably don't need to mention the polling again.  He was, remarkably, back to his bubbly old self last night with Sean Hannity.


Nice haircut.  Next time have them take some off the top.

-- Howie Hawkins will be the Green Party's nominee.


The Greens' national meeting and presidential nominating convention, also virtual in a few weeks, will give you the opportunity to find out what they're all about.


Bernie Sanders was the compromise.

 
-- Mark Charles' independent campaign remains low-profile but is gathering momentum.


-- Last, WikiNews via Indy Poli Report has interview transcripts with the Constitution (William Mohr), Libertarian (Spike Cohen), and Green (Angela Walker) vice-presidential nominees.
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