Thursday, June 30, 2016

Replacing Rodney Ellis in the state Senate

Kuff's on it, so is the Chron.  The contestants -- Borris Miles, Senfronia ("Mr. Tesla") Thompson, Ron Green and maybe Garnet Coleman and CO Bradford -- square off for preening before the SD-13 precinct chairs (my precinct chair gets a ballot) and early predictions are limited to 1) the vote will be closer than it was for county commissioner, and 2) we'll probably have a statehouse seat to do this all over again with.


Tonight's county executive meeting (all Harris D precinct chairs) to select a couple of vacant judicial bench nominees is prelude to the exclusive 94 who will select the person to replace Rodney Ellis in the Texas Senate.  In three weeks.

Update (7/1): the above sentence has been edited to explain the purpose of last night's meeting.

"Many of the candidates have complex political histories that could result in a high level of discord," Texas Southern University political scientist Michael Adams said. "I don't think these people are going to be playing nice."

Fun.  Appallingly, Mark Jones is correct again.

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones lamented what he described as a "less than democratic and less than transparent process."
"It's an unfortunate artifact of Texas election law that state legislators should look into next session," Jones said. "We have a special election process in place for officeholders who die or resign while in office. It would not be a bad idea to consider a similar method for parties to replace nominees."

Jones is not just acting like the Republican he is here.  Oligarchy is indeed a lousy way to run a democracy, and if any local Democrat also says so publicly, point me to it.  It's the kind of sorry crap they'd be the first ones to criticize the Harris County GOP over.  NOW you do understand why people say both parties are alike?

Update (7/2):  Chuck -- with no apparent clue that there might be something wrong with the process -- has the Chron's news that the 'special' election lost its two 'maybe' combatants, Coleman and Bradford, and is set for two Saturday mornings hence, July 16.

Cheeto Jesus begs me for money

Previously I indicated my experience as a Republican donor named Saul Relative, so these random fundraising letters always give me a good laugh.


Sorry about you having to read it sideways; click to enlarge.  Four pages, two front and back.  Big D didn't get the memo from the Seventies about using just the one page.  Oh well, his support network is surely intelligent enough to act on it, even if they can't read it.

I'll watch for a news account -- or a post from some blogger who spends lots of time compiling campaign finance reports -- mentioning the money haul in a few weeks, see how the shill is going.  My guess is it'll be good.  Meanwhile note that he's doing it wrong, in an illegal kinda way.

As the scrutiny on the Orange-utan comes into tighter focus, we learn that Drumpf really isn't smarter than a fifth-grader.  Also that his rallies tend to leave behind large tabs that municipal taxpayers have to foot.

(T)he city of Costa Mesa, California, spent $30,000 on security for an April Trump rally at which violent protests resulted in several arrests and damaged police cars. The city asked the Trump campaign to pay $15,000, but the campaign has not offered to help and they are not obligated to do so, according to Bloomberg News.
"It’s a venue where politicians typically come, and it’s literally never been an issue, Costa Mesa city spokesman Tony Dodero told Bloomberg.
Law enforcement officials told Bloomberg News that the Trump campaign's tendency to sell more tickets than there are seats available results in large crowds outside of venues, sometimes ending in clashes with protesters.
Matt Rokus, the deputy police chief in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, said that for a rally in the city, the Trump campaign sold 6,000 tickets for a venue that seats 1,800.
"Duh, there’s going to be a problem," Rokus told Bloomberg News. "You got a bunch of people who drove hours to get there thinking they had a seat."

That explains some of the extra anger, anyway.  This isn't going to be your father's Republican election cycle.  It's not even going to be a GOP scampaign that you'll be able to recognize from the more recent ones.  Another 'no-precedent' occurrence in a long line of 'em, and more certainly to look out for.  Fun!

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Scattershooting Trump, Abbott, abortion lawsuits, and the Democratic Party

Not in quite the same way your generic Democrat might (scattershoot them).

-- After the Hillbots on the DNC platform committee nullified the Berners by refusing to disavow the TPP (and several other things, as you might already know), Sanders broke some balls with this NYT op-ed entitled "Democrats Need to Wake Up".

But it was Donald Trump who seized the reins by going to Rust Belt, Pennsylvania and blasting NAFTA specifically and free trade generally.

"Globalization has made the financial elite who donate to politicians very, very wealthy ... but it has left millions of our workers with nothing but poverty and heartache," Trump told supporters during a prepared speech [...] devoted to what he called "How To Make America Wealthy Again" ...

Trump offered a series of familiar plans designed to deal with what he called "failed trade policies" — including rejection of the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with Pacific Rim nations and re-negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, withdrawing from it if necessary.

Drumpf is doing a fairly masterful job of catapulting the Brexit propaganda here, and like my friend David Courtney, I believe this will be a very effective line of attack against Hillary Clinton.  It's a pure populist economic message that will resonate with lots and lots of independents, provided Trump can be convincingly sincere about it.  He'll never meet my threshold for candor, but I'm not your average disgusted-with-both-parties voter.

-- Take note of who is actually doing the knife-twisting here.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott appears to be deeply dissatisfied with how Land Commissioner George P. Bush's office handled a recent lawsuit over historical items at the Alamo, according to an internal memo obtained by the Houston Chronicle.
The June 20 memo, which was written by Abbott chief of staff Daniel Hodge as part of the process of approving the settlement, called the deal "regrettable" and "avoidable."
"Had the General Land Office more vigorously defended the State's interests in this matter, the agency would not have found itself in a position in which the (Daughters of the Republic of Texas) can demand this settlement," Hodge wrote.
"The Governor approves this settlement to take place solely out of deference to the independent constitutional officeholder requesting it," he added.
Abbott's blessing came as the settlement received final approval last week.
The General Land Office agreed in the settlement to relinquish its claim on thousands of artifacts in the Alamo's collection and pay $200,000 to cover the legal fees of the rightful owners, the Daughters of the Republic of Texas.

Pee Bush has been a disaster in in his first real job, and if Abbott is delegating his top stooge to do the screwing ... well, I'd say it's only a matter of time before someone finds himself challenged in a Republican primary.  A Bush Family vs. Abbott war for the soul of the RPTX might be in the offing, and wouldn't that be fun to watch.  (Sidebar: Did you ever think that the Bushes would be mentioned with the less insane, moderate/liberal/RINO wing of the the GOP?  Nobody could have predicted that.)  But it's Hodge you should take note of here; he's been one of Abbott's Knights Templar from the get-go, the power behind the wheelchair.  Watch for his name to eventually pop up on a ballot near you.

-- The landmark SCOTUS ruling on Monday striking down Texas' onerous restrictions on women's health should birth a passel of new litigation aimed at the anti-choice effort.

Since the Supreme Court has long held that women have a constitutional right to an abortion, anti-abortion groups over the past decade have turned to the states to pass hundreds of laws designed to discourage abortions, such as waiting periods, mandated fetal sonograms and parental consent requirements.

Bring on the lawsuits, ladies and gentlemen, and let's start with that goddamned sonogram law.  In your not-The-Onion update, Greg Abbott got served with a class-action vagina eviction notice.

The Governor of Texas has been served with a 30 day eviction notice, and by court order he must be vacated from all Texan vaginae before that time. The writ of eviction comes just a day after the Supreme Court batted down his state’s law that would have shuttered nearly every abortion clinic in the Lone Star State had it withstood judicial review.

“I have been given this notice,” Gov. Greg Abbott told reporters as he was seen moving a large U-Haul box out of a woman’s uterus on 4th and Stubb’s Ave in Austin this morning, “and I will comply. I will be out of every vagina in the state by the end of the month.” Abbott said it would “take awhile” but that he heard the message from the Supreme Court “loud and clear.”

What a pussy.  And some people said he was a fighter.

-- So you still think you can reform the Democratic Party?  Don't be a sucker.

The latest Gallup poll on the subject showed that 60 percent of Americans believed that a third party was needed nationally in order to “do an adequate job of representing the American people”. Lest you think that this is some surge due to the current election cycle, a majority of Americans have stated the need for a third party in almost every Gallup poll since 2007. This system is crumbling because Americans look around and see two political parties that are enthralled with Wall Street and diffident (at best) to the concerns of the working class and the marginalized.
Meanwhile, wage growth is stagnant, high-paying manufacturing jobs are being replaced by low-wage, low-stability service jobs, police brutality continues with an official imprimatur from local officials, and mass acts of violence directed at the bodily autonomy of women and the human rights of LGBTQ people go off with only the most cursory of responses (for prayers and reflection, of course) from the leaders of the major parties. That is, when they cannot pin this on the brown people who will inevitably be the targets of an ever-increasing police state.

Instead of spending the next 10, 20, 30, or 60 years trying to take over a party that has demonstrated its rank hostility to leftists and their vision for a new world, why not begin the process of building a party organization from the ground up? A party organization that works alongside movements for change rather than co-opting them. A party organization that recognizes that fundamental humanity of people both domestic and abroad. Why place such a revolutionary vision of society and economy within the tight constraints of two-party politics? Because if the Bernie campaign has taught the American Left anything, it is that Democratic partisans and their allies in the media will work hand-in-hand to snuff out any challenge that could threaten the dominance of neoliberalism within the party.

We can do better. We should do better. And if we trust in the collective efforts of those committed to political, social, and economic liberation, we will do better.

If you're buying in, there's lots of work to be done.  You can ask me how if you want some directions on where to get started.

Tuesday, June 28, 2016

No #DumpingTrump

No pasaran.  He's going to be the nominee.  What now, #NeverTrumpets?


Your New Republican Party.

Republicans looking to dump Donald Trump at next month’s convention have passion, energy and a fierce sense that their party will suffer unless Trump is unseated. What they appear to lack, however, are the votes to make it happen.
POLITICO reached out to all 112 members of the committee that will write the rules of the national GOP convention. This is the panel that anti-Trump activists hope to jam a proposal through to free convention delegates to spurn Trump and select another candidate instead.
What emerged from the survey, though, is a portrait of a committee with little interest in the dump Trump crowd. In fact, most members may be eager to stop them.
“I support DJT 100%,” said Alabama rules committee member Laura Payne in an email. “I ran to support … Trump & to represent the voters of Alabama. It may or may not be an attempt, but the voters will prevail.”
"Trying to change the rules in mid-game because you don't like the outcome is tantamount to saying you are going to take your ball and go home because you are losing," said Christine Serrano-Glassner, a Rules Committee delegate from New Jersey. "I will be supporting our Nominee, Donald J. Trump."
It was a common sentiment. Among the 32 committee members who responded, 25 said they would fight efforts to stop Trump’s nomination. Another 33 members of the panel have been previously on record as endorsing Trump or rejecting efforts to rip the nomination away from him at the convention.

The NYT piles on.  It's such a fascinating thing to me in this cycle that so many binary thinkers are going to be suffering so much cognitive dissonance.  Those that were once psychologically shackled inside the two-party box are suddenly forced to think outside it.

-- The media will be compelled to include the Green and the Libertarian in the horse-race polling, or else show themselves as duopoly frauds.  Polls without them won't reflect reality; just another attempt to silence their voices.  Manipulating the data by removing third party votes altogether and then presenting the D and Rs as the full universe of the electorate is one of the transgressions I would imagine I'll be forced to point out.  More times than I would wish.

-- There will be an ever-louder cry to include the two minor-party candidates in the presidential debates, which are currently micromanaged by the CPD aka Ds and Rs to the exclusion of voices outside the two main lanes.

-- Most importantly, people who never would have considered the most proper protest vote will now be casting one.  Whether it turns out to be an extra couple of percent above their usual one or two, or whether it's more than that -- or much more than that -- is basically the most interesting conversation that's going to be happening this cycle.  Trump and Clinton's gaffes, legal problems, and assorted other he said/she said bullshit and negativity -- as fascinating as the corporate media will keep telling us it is -- just aren't going to do anything except suppress voter interest and correspondingly turnout, as polling traditionally demonstrates.

There remain far too may people who will insist that you only have two options, and a vote for one helps elect the other.  Stop falling for that crap.  Stop, also, listening to people who say that your vote is wasted, thrown away, or otherwise cancelled out unless you pick Coke or Pepsi.  Frick or Frack.  Ford or Chevy.  In a world full of multiple choices of everything, why should anyone settle for evil or less evil?

My teevee just isn't going to tell me anything about this election.  My recommendation is to not let yours tell you much either.  The Fox/sheep effect is nothing for so-called liberals to emulate.

Let's show that we're smarter than they think we are.  That's not too difficult a task, is it?  Not too much to ask?  It would be easy to be cynical, I know.  I still have hope for something more than incremental progress.  Call me naive'...

Monday, June 27, 2016

UT/TexTrib polling has some surprises

Let's get Trail Blazers' take, since they were first (after the actual sponsor, that is):

Texas supporters of Bernie Sanders are more reluctant to support Hillary Clinton than Ted Cruz supporters are to support Donald Trump, according to a new poll released Monday morning.

The University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll found Texas voters who supported Cruz's presidential campaign are more likely to support Trump than Sanders supporters are to support Clinton. Nearly 70 percent of Cruz voters are ready to vote for Trump, but just 40 percent of Sanders supporters are ready to vote for the former secretary of state.

WaPo's poll from just this past weekend begs to differ on the rapidity with which Sandernistas are boarding the Clinton bandwagon.  So Jim Henson may just be spinning here.

"Sanders has been reluctant to throw in the towel and endorse Clinton. That's showing in these numbers," said James Henson, a UT-Austin professor and the director of the Texas Politics Project. "Clinton has plenty of time to work with Sanders and his supporters. But I think the ball is very much in Sanders' court right now. The Sanders' voters are likely in large numbers to follow the lead of their candidate. But he's gotta lead them to that place." 

Whether that happens or doesn't, what I'm gathering from social media is that Berners aren't waiting to be led anywhere.  I believe Henson's supposition is false, but time (and more data) will tell.  Here's the counterpoint.
 
Since Clinton became the presumptive nominee, Sanders has refused to concede. While acknowledging that he's not going to be the nominee and that he'll likely vote for Clinton in November, the Vermont senator hasn't dropped out yet. He has also not formally endorsed Clinton.

Accurate, and it doesn't reference the platform arguments that Sanders' people lost over the weekend, and some seething I'm seeing about that.  So is WaPo's poll wrong about Berners jumping on with Clinton and TexTrib's right here?

And there's the usual caveats about polling methodology.

The poll was conducted online from June 10 to June 19 and surveyed 1,200 voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 percent meaning that results can vary by that much in either direction. Some public opinion experts question the effectiveness of online polling, because it relies on "sample matching." 
This statistical tool draws samples from online groups of pre-selected respondents and weighs them to represent demographic groups.
Typically, the best polls are conducted over telephone. Still, the University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll provides interesting insight into the upcoming general election. 

And the DMN's political blog buried the lede ...

Trump leads over Clinton 41 to 33 percent, according to the poll.  

That's going to excite all those Democrats who believe Hillary when she says "I can win Texas".  But hey, if you were ignorant enough to have swallowed all her lies up to this point... why would you suddenly stop now?

The head-to-head matchup is presenting itself as a very skewed and blinkered way to look at this election cycle.  In a three-horse race (with Lib Gary Johnson), it's 39-32-7, with 14% saying 'someone else'.  And this poll neglects mentioning Jill Stein or the Green Party completely, which I think is flawed methodology especially when you consider the wildest of UT/TexTrib/YouGov polling results over their relatively long history of comical errors.  Even if you're a Democrat who is hostile to Greens, it's a dumb thing to do to simply ignore them (or hide their support in other ways).  And we'll probably see more of that.

More from the Austin Statesman.

*Disclosure: I was surveyed for this poll by YouGov.