More on New Hampshire and the primary races ahead

-- Gadfly reminds that Bernie and Hillary debate again tomorrow night, and the Republicans again on Saturday night.  Nevada Democrats caucus on February 20, the same day South Carolina Republicans vote in their primary.  Nevada Republicans caucus on Tuesday, February 23, and South Carolina Democrats vote on Saturday, February 27.  And Texas Democrats and Republicans begin voting next Tuesday, the first business day after Presidents Day, and finish early voting in the March 1 primary on Friday, February 26.

-- Also a reminder that it gets harder for Bernie from here on, and Transgriot explains why (a topic I first wrote about in June).

-- Trump crushed it in New Hampshire with every single Republican demographic.

According to exit polls, Trump, who won New Hampshire with 35 percent of the vote, carried nearly every group with double digits. He won older voters and younger voters. He won people who care about "the issues," 37 percent to 13 percent, and people who care about leadership, 31 percent to 20 percent.

Trump won rich voters and poor voters, conservative voters and moderate voters. He won evangelical Christians — Cruz's base. He won voters with a college degree — who voted for Marco Rubio in Iowa.

He won voters who made up their minds on Tuesday, and he won those who made up their minds months in advance.

And in most cases, when Trump won, he won by a crushing margin.

Since his feet are bulletproof, you can safely expect -- barring the most unforeseen of circumstances -- that he is going to be the GOP nominee.

-- If the same is true of Hillary Clinton (and I still believe it is) then there is no room for a Michael Bloomberg or a Jim Webb candidacy between those two.  Right, far right, and fascist is no way to motivate an electorate.  This is the promise of both Bernie Sanders' revolution, and once the superdelegates close him out (even if he can find his way to beating Clinton in Nevada, and holding her victory margin close in South Carolina) the opportunity rises for the Green Party to build itself a bigger, broader base.

Gadfly believes if Sanders shows enough momentum that the SDs will come over, as they are 'unbound'.  This demonstrates a lack of understanding about Democratic Party politics, and I'm going to reveal it when I finally get finished with my post about the Texas primary elections.

-- Ted gets it wrong again.

Right after Iowa, the first polls in New Hampshire showed Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points. These two polls suggest the race might be tightening in New Hampshire. One has Sanders leading by 7 points, and the other has him leading by 10 points.

If Clinton can make the primary outcome closer than predicted (say 7 points or less), that could be considered a victory for her, since Sanders has been leading big for some time now in New Hampshire. -- [sic] and it could bode well for hr [sic] as she enters friendlier states.

Blinded by the blue light.

-- A few last words about Fat Bastard, Lobster Hands, and Marco Ruboto.

(Christie) invested more hours than anyone in New Hampshire outside of Kasich. He’s performed very well during every debate. He’s come across as likable, almost Jackie Gleason-esque, during every interview. But the fear of another shoe dropping in Bridgegate combined with an good-news-bad-news record in New Jersey was always Christie’s problem… along with that whole we-can’t-nominate-another-Northeastern-Republican-sentiment among the base (See: Romney, Mitt). In the end, Christie will always be remembered as the Jack Ruby of this primary season, because he was the guy who took Rubio out during that last debate without gaining anything out of it for himself. From the beginning, Christie attempted to portray himself as the tough, candid guy who can get things done. Problem for him was Trump already captured the starring bully role in the eyes of voters. 

Which brings us back to Rubio, who is officially now a caricature more than a candidate. He’s mocked by people dressed as robots at every campaign stop he makes. The media can’t mention him without referencing the repetition tick. Call it unfair for a few bad moments, but that’s how politics works… particularly in an age of social media when brush fires become uncontrollable wildfires in mere minutes. If this were another time, another campaign season, maybe Rubio recovers. But the moment Rubio shows any sign of life again, rest assured Trump will never allow him — and the media that covers his every word — to forget his new nickname: Marco Roboto. 

As for Kasich, it’s hard to see where he goes from here outside as the undisputed favorite to be a VP selection. Brit Hume said it best when once observing that the Ohio Governor was running to be president of New Hampshire (thanks to practically living in the Granite State for months while holding an impressive 107 Town Hall meetings). It’s been stated in this space before that Kasich is the most prepared, most experienced, best candidate running on either side right now. His approval rating in Ohio — a state that went twice for Barack Obama — sits at an astounding 62 percent. His record in both Congress and as governor around budgeting, deficit reduction, job creation, and attention/resources allocated to mental illness and drug addiction is unmatched by anyone left seeking to be president. 

But money and organization are important things, and Kasich doesn’t have much of either. Perhaps the Rubio money will go to him as that campaign continues to crumble. Perhaps those clinging to the idea that the Bush brand is still viable will finally come to their senses. But for now, Kasich goes to South Carolina with only a breeze at his back, and not the kind of gust it would take to bring down the big, bad wolf in Donald Trump… who leads there by 16 points in the Real Clear Politics average.

-- And these two hot shots from Nancy LeTourneau at Washington Monthly.

This is an even worse characteristic in a president than being a Marcobot.

[T]o those who have known him longest, Rubio’s flustered performance Saturday night fit perfectly with an all-too-familiar strain of his personality, one that his handlers and image-makers have labored for years to keep out of public view. Though generally seen as cool-headed and quick on his feet, Rubio is known to friends, allies, and advisers for a kind of incurable anxiousness — and an occasional propensity to panic in moments of crisis, both real and imagined.

[...]

When someone writes “Why the Working Class is Choosing Trump and Sanders,” it is important to start reading that as: Why the White Working Class is Choosing Trump and Sanders.

The new normal

We'll see how the revolution plays out over the next couple of weeks. With Bernie's blowout holding up -- almost 61% to her 38% -- the focus turns to whether Nevada and South Carolina, where more orthodox Democrats do most of the voting -- can be Clinton's firewall.

There's at least a hint that some reshuffling is coming (my emphasis).

By ABC NEWS ANALYSIS DESK Feb 9, 2016, 9:46 PM ET 

Sanders won women by 53-46 percent, as well as prevailing far more widely among men, 65-34 percent. Sixty-nine percent of women under 45 backed Sanders (including 82 percent of those under 30 women), while Clinton won women 45 and older by 56-43 percent.

By ABC NEWS ANALYSIS DESK Feb 9, 2016, 9:46 PM ET

Nonwhites roughly divided, 52-48 percent, Clinton-Sanders.

The Clinton campaign response to the shellacking:

Asked about polling data showing that Sanders had won independent voters by an overwhelming margin in New Hampshire, Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri was quick with a comeback.

“Most of the states we’re going to now, Democrats vote in them,” she said. “Not independents.”

Palmieiri -- unwittingly, I can only presume -- revealed Hillary's precise general election weakness with that statement.  Democrats don't win in November without young people and independents.

Citing the exit polls, which showed Sanders winning 83 percent of voters under the age of 30 and 72 percent of independents, (Sanders’ New Hampshire communications director Karthik) Ganapathy said he had “two takeaways” from Sanders’ performance in the Granite State (where “undeclared” voters are allowed to cast ballots in either party’s primary). 

“Young people and the independent, undeclared voters — they came out and they made the crucial difference in this election,” Ganapathy said. “People think they’re sort of unreliable. But they’re here and they’re voting.”

There is still a long way to go with regard to Latino and African American Democrats.  Clinton holds big leads in both the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary, but the latest polling there is quite old; the most recent conducted a week before before Iowa.  The news to anticipate in both states is whether there has been any movement.

As for the indies, they broke 42% Republican and 40% Democrat, with higher vote totals -- 216 K versus 242 K -- on the red side as well.  That worked out as well for Trump as it did for Sanders.  The Donald doubled up John Kasich, who placed second, with Bush, Cruz, and Rubio all bunched together in third, fourth, and fifth.

It's over for Fat Bastard.  His Saturday night beatdown of Marco Ruboto did not translate into any momentum; he ended the night with the sixth place ribbon at 7.5% and is going home to New Jersey to "take a deep breath".  Expect the JP to pronounce his campaign's death later this morning.

Trump and Cruz still look like the front-runners to me, with Rubio (or not) and Kasich and -- to a much lesser degree, Bush -- all fighting it out in Nevada and South Carolina.

Texas will have its early votes in the can -- historically about half the total -- before we know any results from the Palmetto State.  So trends and momentum are the thing to watch for in both primaries.

I swear I've got a Texas post coming.

Ted Cruz is NOT a pussy

Trust me on this, Donald.  He's just as big a bully as you are and he's got the mission-from-God stamp of approval to show for it.  Jeebus Christ on a Christmas tree crutch, what a pair of wads.

They're your co-leaders for the GOP nod after today, though, with the media piling back on the Trump bandwagon for ratings again, including those sad sacks at MSNBC.  That network's political coverage has been an absolute disgrace so far, and that's to say nothing of their shilling for Hillary.

John Kasich -- and not Chris Christie -- may pull an upset for second place, according to what I'm reading.  Even Jeb! may see a slight erection resurrection.  And when the Big Dog starts talking dirty, you know that the Clintons are mad at everybody again.

Marco Ruboto is toast.  Singed, but maybe not as Bernt as Hillary.  I've called it 55-42 for Sanders (lowering expectations a bit) and Trump 30, Kasich 15, Cruz 13, Bush 12, Rubio 11, and Christie 10. But you can shuffle those bottom four any way you like.

Update: read the Vox advance; they seem to be hitting the mark every time.

Here's your funny for today: the same two guys who heckled Jeb! are spotted in the camera shot behind Hilz wearing "Settle for Hillary" shirts.

Enjoy your Fat Tuesday.  I know that I am.

The Weekly Wrangle

In bringing you this week's blog post roundup, the Texas Progressive Alliance congratulates the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning for their Super Bowl victory yesterday, and thought the Snickers 'Marilyn' commercial was the best of the advertising.

Off the Kuff published interviews with three of the candidates who hope to succeed Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner in the Legislature.

Libby Shaw, contributing to Daily Kos, can’'t decide whether the junior U.S. Senator from Texas, Ted Cruz, more closely resembles former Senator Joe McCarthy or President Tricky Dick Nixon in his campaign tactics. The Texas Blues: Everything is Bigger. Especially the Tricksters and Their Sleazy Tricks.

Socratic Gadfly, while liking many things about last Thursday's Democratic town hall forum, regretted the missing foreign policy questions that likely won't get asked in ANY "mainstream media" debate.

"What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?" asked PDiddie at Brains and Eggs of a prominent national political blogger.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants everyone to know that South Texas people are waiting for clean water, too.

Nonsequiteuse has run away to join the circus. Or, gone to New Hampshire to meet the candidates.

Egberto Willies has the video of the presentation of Move to Amend's David Cobb at Kingwood College last week.  Cobb will be also appear in Houston this Friday evening.

Neil All People Have Value said we are not always best represented by people who resemble us in some superficial manner. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Scott Braddock reports on the latest attempt to move the Texas GOP even further to the right.

Glen Maxey dropped by Juanita Jean's to give an update on how the Democratic effort to get absentee ballots out to people is going.

Somervell County Salon has Hillary Clinton's Horrid Campaign Tactic O'Day: surrogates condemning women to Hell if they don't vote for her.

The Lunch Tray notes that Ted Cruz wants your kids to eat more French fries.

OutSmart salutes 10 black LGBT leaders in Houston.

Mary Flood calls for an end to judicial candidates spamming requests for favorable votes in the Houston Bar Association poll.

BOR implores us to support Rep. Jessica Farrar against her notoriously hateful non-Democrat primary opponent.

Grits for Breakfast makes an endorsement (of sorts): vote for the conservative judicial activist pro-Big Government vote if you're voting in the GOP primary.

Pages of Victory points out that failure is a right and not a privilege.

And Sharon Briggs writes an ode to Waco's Elite Cafe', which closed last week after nearly one hundred years of service.

Even Skynet is more self-aware than Marco Rubio

The most amazing part of last night was Rubio's audio program getting stuck in a loop.

Moments after the Republican debate ended Saturday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie walked over to Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, shook his hand and offered some customary words of encouragement.

Rubio stared mutely back, looking flummoxed, Christie told close aides moments later according to one Christie adviser who was in the room. 

Christie and his team were buoyant after the New Jersey governor mauled Rubio in a one-on-one face-off in the first half-hour of the debate, repeatedly mocking Rubio for what he called his lack of experience and accomplishments. It was clearly a bad night for Rubio.

Didn't we see this in Westworld (the old one, with Yul Brynner)?  I mean to say, if Rubio really is a robot, would he sweat that much or have to break for a drink of water so often?

IIRC correctly, though, the robot won.  Mostly.  Not the case last night.

“Let’s dispel once and for all with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing. He knows exactly what he’s doing. Barack Obama is undertaking a systematic effort to change this country, to make America more like the rest of the world,” Rubio said. 

The moderators then turned to Christie to ask about his criticisms of Rubio’s experience. When Christie doubled down, Rubio returned to his line about Obama three more times. He kept repeating the comment even as Christie mocked him for resorting to a “memorized” sound bite. 

“You see, everybody, I want the people at home to think about this. That is what Washington, D.C., does: the drive-by shot at the beginning, with incorrect and incomplete information, and then the memorized 25-second speech that is exactly what his advisers gave him,” Christie said, as the debate audience began to roar.

Frankly I am sorry I missed the debate now.  This was Fat Bastard's moment in the GOP spotlight, and he made hay with it.  It's even a bigger beatdown than Debbie Wasserman Schultz took for Tweeting something Rubio-level-clueless about the scheduling of last night's debate.

Hmmm, wondering why @GOP trying to hide their #GOPdebate on the Saturday of #SuperBowl weekend no less?!

— D Wasserman Schultz (@DWStweets) February 6, 2016

As you might imagine, the social media Irony Tower came crashing down upon her head.

But even that wasn't as funny as this.



A comedy of errors. The real comedy, as it has been all season, was on Saturday Night Live, which had doppelgangers Bernie Sanders and Larry David talking about socialism errr, democratic socialism, on the Titanic.

Hey John: this is how to be funny.  You're failing.

Super Sunday Funnies

You know that “TrusTed” logo? The one with TRUS and TED merged, yet separated via different colors?

Turns out that when you Google “TRUS”, the logo at once becomes hilarious and hilariously appropriate:

"A transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) is an ultrasound technique that is used to view a man's prostate and surrounding tissues. The ultrasound transducer (probe) sends sound waves through the wall of the rectum into the prostate gland, which is located directly in front of the rectum."

Yup, that’s the very top Google result. Basically, it’s an anal probe. Which makes us even more certain that he’s actually an alien.

Well done, Ted!

The Republicans debate again tonight

I probably won't watch or Tweet any of it since there's an early Chinese New Year celebration, with dinner and a lion dance we'll be attending.  (I'm kinda Mardi-Graw'ed out after all these years.)

The Republican Party will hold its final debate before the New Hampshire Primary on Saturday night, Feb. 6. 

ABC will broadcast the contest starting at 8 p.m. ET, and will also live stream it on ABCNews.com, ABC News mobile apps, and through apps on Apple TV, Xbox One, and Roku, according to a spokesperson for ABC News.

ABC has extended invitations to just seven candidates: Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, Sen. Marco Rubio, Dr. Ben Carson, former Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. Chris Christie and Gov. John Kasich. 

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore did not receive invites, as they neither finished in the top three in the Iowa caucuses, nor the top six in a recent average of national or New Hampshire primary polls. ABC News stuck to its decision to keep Fiorina out of the debate, despite a public lobbying effort by the former technology executive in recent days to be included.

It's make-or-break time for a couple of guys.

Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie both invested time and money in Iowa. Together they got 5 percent. Christie said he had to do well in Iowa, which his campaign insisted meant that he had to finish ahead of the other governors. He did not do that, finishing ahead of only  Rick Santorum and Jim Gilmore. Bush spent a substantial amount of time in the Hawkeye State and thought he could get support from the network his brother and father had there. He did not get that support. At least Ohio Gov. John Kasich did not expend very much time or effort in getting just 2 percent in Iowa. 

The debate [...] may therefore be the last real shot for Bush and Christie to get into the race and reestablish themselves as something more than also-rans. It also will be critical for Kasich to remind New Hampshire voters that he is there and remains a viable candidate.

Let's say a soft goodbye to them both.  Kasich is still polling fourth, which means he's ahead of Jeb!, but that won't mean much after next Tuesday with southern and western primaries dominating Super Tuesdays ahead.  Christie faces another subpoena about Bridgegate, so if he manages to get into contention he'll still be damaged goods.  Bush's campaign is comatose and pathetic, but he apparently plans on being around for South Carolina because his brother is riding to his rescue.

I don't see anything developing here.  It still looks like Trump, Cruz, and Rubio -- in any order you like -- to be the remaining choices going forward.

The news post-Iowa is that Marco Rubio stole Ted Cruz's bounce.

Trump, by all indications, will return to the debate stage Saturday. We will see if the Iowa loss stripped him of any bravado or venom. Will he go right back after Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.)? That would be his natural inclination, but his arguments will have to be better than the birtherism canard. In some sense, both Trump and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) have the same argument against Cruz: He is another slippery pol, tooting his own horn but as calculating and phony as the rest of them. Unlike Rubio, however, Trump does not need to show he is conservative enough for the GOP. His supporters by and large do not care what his ideology is; they want someone to show strength, candor, irreverence, and empathy for their anger and resentment. 

But married with Trump’s populist, less educated base of support is a certain sense of pragmatism — the opposite of Cruz’s appeal for rigid ideological purity. That contrast between deal-maker and enemy-maker should be on display at the debate Saturday. Cruz is right that Trump seems to have no governing vision. Trump is right that Cruz has little personal appeal and no sense of how to get things done. Between the two of them, they seem to embrace virtually every bad idea circulating on the right (e.g., protectionism, exclusion of immigrants, disregard for human rights) and every bad political trait of our times (e.g., anger, rudeness, dishonesty, lack of compassion).

Keep in mind all of these opinions belong to the WaPo's most Republican commentator, Jennifer Rubin.

If the GOP is gradually coming to its political senses, looking for an electable nominee and a plausible chief executive, this will be the week to knock out Trump and show Cruz has minimal appeal outside deep-red locales. Cruz’s support in Iowa came overwhelmingly from very conservative voters, about 44 percent of whom voted for him, and could get only about 19 percent of somewhat conservative voters and about 9 percent of moderates.That split works in the Iowa caucuses where  the most conservative voters predominate, but not in the majority of primary contests. Revealing him to be a rigid ideologue with very few answers for our problems should be the grown-ups’ focus.

I expect the vote next Tuesday to go pretty much how it's been polling: Trump in first, Rubio second, Cruz third, Kasich fourth.  My strongest recommendation is to go do something fun tonight, as we are, and then get ready for the Super Bowl tomorrow, and then go have a drink on Fat Tuesday rather than pay attention to election returns that evening.

It's time for me to blog about some local developments, such as the candidates on the Texas primary ballot and some other items closer to home.  That's coming up shortly.