Cuba, Cubans, Cuban Americans, America, and Americans

The island nation, its politics intertwining with ours, and its favorite sons battling to be the GOP nominee are all over my newsfeed this week.

-- Cruz and Rubio, two sons of Cuban parents, are vying to lead the anti-immigrant party:

There’s nothing new about seeing a group of presidential hopefuls who are the grandchildren of immigrants — Irish, Italian, Czech, German — decrying the burden of rampant immigration. Seldom, it seems, are the candidates who rail loudest against interlopers the ones whose ancestors walked off the Mayflower.

What is unusual, though, is to turn on a presidential debate and see two notably young Latino candidates, both born to Cuban émigrés, jockeying over who will close the border faster and more securely. That was the scene in Las Vegas Tuesday night, and it underscored a central paradox of this year’s Republican contest: Both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio seem like decent bets now to become the first Latino nominee in either party’s long history, at exactly the moment when anti-immigrant fervor is reaching its zenith.

[...]

It’s tempting to see Cruz and Rubio as politicians cast from the same mold and reflecting remarkably similar stories. Here are two 44-year-old conservative Cuban-Americans, both lightning fast from mind to mouth, both first-term senators who capitalized on voter rebellion — Rubio in 2010, Cruz two years later — to shock establishment-backed opponents. The parallels are kind of bizarre.

Both men, eyeing the presidency from the moment they arrived in Washington, also wrote readable, if thoroughly forgettable, political memoirs with the kind of anodyne titles that make you think there must be some publishing algorithm for coming up with this stuff: “A Time for Truth” in Cruz’s case, “ An American Son” in Rubio’s.

Cruz’s father fled political repression and existential danger as an ally of communist rebels seeking to overthrow Fulgencio Batista. Once in America, Rafael Cruz grew disillusioned with Fidel Castro and threw communism overboard, replacing it with a new guiding cause: evangelical Christianity.

Rubio’s dad, on the other hand, came to America chiefly in pursuit of economic opportunity. In Florida and then in Nevada, and then back in Florida again, Mario Rubio’s passion was to provide for his family, running small, ill-fated businesses (a vegetable stand, a dry cleaner) and tending bar.

Cruz’s Cuban story is all about zealotry and purity — a journey of faith, both political and religious. The boyhood chapters of Rubio’s memoir, on the other hand, are largely about paying bills and fitting in, as generations of immigrants have tried to do — playing football and celebrating American holidays, switching churches (Catholic and Mormon) in order to adapt to social circles.

Because of Cuba’s outsize role for a tiny island in the geopolitical drama of the Cold War and in American politics, Cuban-Americans have always seen themselves, perhaps more than any other immigrant group, as instruments of destiny. The most common narrative among Cuban-Americans revolves around all the wealth and greatness that would have been theirs save for the scourge of global communism.

“If you put together all the sugar plantations Cubans have claimed to have once owned,” jokes Joe Garcia, a Cuban-American Democrat who represented the Miami area in Congress, “you’d have a country the size of Brazil.”

I'll let you read on from there.  But don't miss this: "Ted Cruz's dishonesty on immigration".

-- Fidel’s niece, Mariela Castro, leads Cuba’s LGBT revolution:

The moment that Mariela Castro Espin met Rory Kennedy on a Monday evening in early December seemed to encapsulate all the promise of a Cuba in transition as relations with America thaw.

Here was the niece of Fidel Castro and daughter of Cuban President Raúl Castro agreeably posing for pictures and gabbing with the niece of former President John F. Kennedy and daughter of Sen. Bobby Kennedy.

More than half a century after their uncles faced off during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the two scions of legendary political families sat down for an in-translation tête-à-tête at a dinner at the San Cristobal paladar, or private restaurant, in central Havana.

The moment came toward the tail end of an evening of good food, music and well-aged rum sponsored by HBO in celebration of Jon Alpert’s documentary “Mariela Castro’s March: Cuba’s LGBT Revolution,” about Castro’s emergence as the most prominent gay rights advocate in Cuba.

Of all the unexpected facts about Cuba today, perhaps none is more so than that the 53-year-old Castro daughter — straight, married, a mother of three — has become its most vocal political advocate on behalf of gay, lesbian, bi and trans rights.

-- Obama wants to travel to Cuba as president, but only if he can meet with Cuban dissidents:

President Obama promised in an exclusive interview with Yahoo News that he “very much” hopes to visit Cuba during his last year in office, but only if he can meet with pro-democracy dissidents there.

“If I go on a visit, then part of the deal is that I get to talk to everybody,” Obama said. “I’ve made very clear in my conversations directly with President [Raul] Castro that we would continue to reach out to those who want to broaden the scope for, you know, free expression inside of Cuba.”

Speaking in the Cabinet Room of the White House, Obama strongly hinted that he would make a decision “over the next several months.”

The president hopes that “sometime next year” he and his top aides will see enough progress in Cuba that they can say that “now would be a good time to shine a light on progress that’s been made, but also maybe [go] there to nudge the Cuban government in a new direction.” 

-- The Americans are coming!  Is Cuba ready?

-- US, Cuba to establish regular air service

-- Exploring the underground real estate market in Cuba

-- Hair has become an art form for Cuban men:

Under Fidel Castro, barber shops and beauty salons were state-owned and state-run. For the most part, a men’s haircut was just that — a cut. There was no shampooing and no styling.

However, in 2010, two years after Fidel’s brother, Raúl, became president, many small salons were handed over to their employees — essentially privatized. 

This quietly implemented, small economic change might be the reason behind the evolving hairstyles worn by men in Havana. When you walk down the streets today, you’ll see guys with carefully sculptured Mohawks, pompadours, fades, and highlights.

Much more from Yahoo: "US and Cuba, One Year Later" and also from the Havana Times.  And be sure and click on the blog appearing regularly in the right-hand column: "Notes from the Cuban Exile Quarter".

Texas Greens file for 57 state and local offices in 2016

Kuff and Stace both have your Democratic rundown; I had some first-take POV on Tuesday, and yesterday the Green Party of Texas offered their slate for next year.

A total of 57 filed for offices across Texas, and here's the full list.  (I only counted one presidential candidate because recent polling shows Jill Stein with 63%, but she has four challengers, including Kent Mesplay of Texas).  The GPUS presidential nominating convention will be held in Houston next August, with most events occurring in and around the University of Houston.  The state convention will held in April, in San Antonio.

Regular readers here will note that I have been advancing a vote for Stein for president on the expectation that Bernie Sanders will eventually be eliminated from contention as the Democratic Party's nominee, and that his supporters should be welcomed to join the only real progressive campaign remaining after this spring.  Both Stein and the GPTX agree with me.

“The Democratic Party is not going to allow Bernie Sanders to squeak through, so where would we be if we don’t have a Plan B? When Bernie gets knocked out of contention, there would be no place for people to go if not for our campaign. The difference between our campaign and Bernie’s is that we’re not looking for the Democratic Party to save us. We are establishing an independent base for political resistance where we can continue to grow, because there is no relief on the horizon and we need to get busy right now building the lifeboat we’ll need to rescue ourselves and our children.”

Sanders is riding a populist wave in the Democratic primary that closely aligns with Green positions. For Greens who are committed to building an electoral alternative outside of the Democratic Party, we must be prepared to capture as much of this momentum as possible when the super-delegates and other Democratic Party machinery finally close the door on the Sanders campaign. To do this, we will put forward a solid and coordinated slate of candidates this cycle, and we will conduct a Green Party brand awareness campaign intended to let voters know that they still have an opportunity to vote their values and put people, peace, and planet before profit.

Since Texas Democrats and Republicans finally figured out that the way to reduce the electorate's choices back down to two was to file a candidate for every statewide office and let the mindlessness of straight ticket voting works its magic, it becomes imperative that to avoid having to petition for signatures for ballot access in 2018, a statewide Green (and Libertarian, for that matter) needs to hit the 5% threshold in next year's elections.

The statewide offices on the ballot in 2016 are Railroad Commissioner, state Supreme Court (Places 3, 5 and 9), and state Court of Criminal Appeals (Places 2, 5 and 6).  Multiple Democrats and Republicans have filed for those seats, most of them incumbents, and the primary elections in March will determine who bears the D and R standard in November.

The Railroad Commissioner's contest will be the liveliest, with over half a dozen candidates, including former Republican state representative Wayne Christian and three other goombah Republicans trying to out-"most conservative" each other in the GOP primary.  Former Land Commisioner Jerry Patterson's in-and-out dance prior to the filing deadline last Monday ended when he decided he couldn't be a ticketmate with Trump.

Former statehouse Democrat Lon Burnham, infamous perennial Grady Yarbrough -- you should remember him from his 2012 US Senate runoff against Paul Sadler -- and one other are vying to represent the Blue Team.  The Greens re-submit Martina Salinas, who got north of 2% in a 2014 bid for the RRC in a four-way race.

Gadfly had a good suggestion as the best shot for the Greens to hit their 5% number, and I won't disagree.  Quoting...

Cheryl Johnson is NOT running for Place 5 on the CCA, though. And the Democratic candidate, Betsy Johnson, is in a solo practice, which means she probably doesn't have a lot of legal depth she brings to the race. Her Texas Bar page lists, besides criminal practice, real estate and wills/probate.

Judith Sanders-Castro is the Green here; she got 10.45% against a Republican and a Libertarian in the CCA contest in 2014.  She had a long career as a voting rights activist going back to the '80's and early '90's with MALDEF.  Both Sanders-Castro and Salinas should campaign together and work the RGV and urban areas for Latin@ votes in their respective races.  Their success will be key in the bid for continued ballot access.

Besides those two excellent candidates, longtime Travis County activist Debbie Russell is running for sheriff there.  She and I spent time working on David Van Os' campaign for TXAG in 2006.  Deb Shafto, the Green Party's gubernatorial nominee in 2010, will make a run at Sylvia Garcia in Texas Senate 6, and her husband, George Reiter, the past co-chair of the state party, takes aim at Congressman Al Green in CD-9.

The godmother of the Texas Green Party, katia gruene, is a candidate for the statehouse (District 51, incumbent Eddie Rodriguez) and Joseph McElligott, fresh off his bid for Houston city council, will run against Dan Huberty in HD127.  Harris County Commissioner El Franco Lee also draws a Green challenge from Adam Socki, a transit/urban planner with engineering outfit HDR.

David Collins, the Harris County Green Co-Chair, posts more.

Fear and loathing in Las Vegas

Trump vs. Bush. (Trump, shockingly, lost.)  Cruz vs. Rubio on immigration and funding for troops (both lost on the basis of their respective lies).  Even the kid's table debate was riotous, if only for Lindsey Graham's eye rolls, Princess Bride references, and made for teevee lines like "bring on the virgins".

But the main event did not disappoint.

Republican presidential hopefuls fought to out-tough one another Tuesday night in a raucous debate animated by fears of terrorism and disagreement over how best to prevent attacks like the massacres in Paris and San Bernardino.

Agreeing on the need to destroy the Islamic State terrorist group and eager to blame President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for its ascendance, the candidates quickly squared off in a series of heated exchanges over the line between protecting Americans and trampling their rights.

Yeah, about that...

It was a festival of fraud from Cruz.

His patented formula is a mix of repellent ingredients: misrepresentation of facts, baseless smears, exaggerated sincerity and pretended solidarity with the average person. If Cruz tells you it's raining, you can leave your umbrella at home.

Even fact-checkers were aghast at the mendacity.

TED CRUZ: "You would carpet bomb where ISIS is, not a city."

THE FACTS: The Texas senator's conviction that the Islamic State group can be routed with an air campaign of overwhelming force is hard to square with the reality on the ground. IS fighters are holed up in a variety of cities, amid civilians, raising questions about how he could direct a carpet bombing that only singles out the enemy.

He was asked in the debate if he'd be willing to cause civilian casualties in Raqqa, a major Syrian city that has become de facto capital of the Islamic State group's so-called caliphate.

He answered yes, without saying yes.  Essentially the fear and hate of Trump was unleashed by all nine of these losers.

“Like all of you, I’m angry” is how Carly Fiorina began her opening statement. That sentence encapsulates not just last night’s two-hour debate in Las Vegas but also the entire Republican nominating contest thus far. Donald Trump himself was largely a non-factor in the candidates’ fifth and final showdown of 2015, but Trumpism was the dominant, animating force inside the Venetian Theatre.

Reaganesque the rhetoric was not. Trump catapulted to the top of the polls and has stayed there for six months now because he tapped into deep-seeded anger and frustration of the conservative base that the country is slipping away from them. Chasing the frontrunner’s success, the other leading candidates each tried to varying degrees to show that they get it, that they too are mad as hell and want to take the country back. There was little effort to play to the higher angels of the American consciousness. Instead, in the wake of attacks on Paris and San Bernardino, it often felt like the candidates were preying on the electorate’s fear, anxiety and sense of vulnerability.

Guess how many times the word 'guns' was used last night?

In a two-plus hour Republican presidential debate focused on "keeping America safe," candidates mentioned guns a total of three times — twice by Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a long-shot moderate, and once by Jeb Bush, when he said, "America is under the gun to lead the free world, to protect our civilized way of life."

Before the debate began, GOP chairman Reince Priebus (rhymes with "Rinse Penis") spoke about -- seriously -- competence.

“You know a lot of people ask what does the Republican National Committee do?,” he asked the bored audience. “A competent national party. A competent national party that has its act together on the ground.”

“The one thing that we all need,” he continued, “and the one thing that every one of the candidates need on this stage is a competent national party. And it’s something that we’re all striving to do and working for every day.”

They have a long, long way to go.

Filing deadline news and reax

-- Tipped by Bill King flack Campos several days ago (scroll to the end), Adrian Garcia files at the last minute against Rep. Gene Green.  Don't much care who wins between the two; I consider them both tools of the establishment.  Green is deeply embedded with the petroleum interests, Garcia with the Republicrat politicos like Tony Buzbee and Bill White.  This is a Dumb and Dumber primary, and the voters in the 29th get to decide which one is which.  When even Annise Parker is throwing shade, you should be able to figure out you're just another unemployed stooge trying to get back on the public payroll.

Funny, I thought he wanted to be Mayor of Houston.-A https://t.co/OMyVmQgEZc

— Annise Parker (@AnniseParker) December 15, 2015

-- I do like TMF to prevail in his grudge rematch with state Sen. José Menéndez.  But does anybody else wonder why Leticia Van de Putte isn't running for something in 2016?

  -- The two "third" parties in Texas are officially in trouble.

Greens, Libertarians at risk of losing automatic access to '18 general election ballot with Rs and Ds in all seven statewide races #txlege

— TX Election Source (@TXElects) December 14, 2015

Gadfly has the gameplan.  There's every opportunity for Texas Greens to take a big step forward: the choices will come down to Hillary and some godawful Republican, be it Trump, Cruz, or Rubio; the GPUS presidential nominating convention is in Houston this summer, and Bernie Sanders supporters have no logical place to go.  Texas Democratic votes in the November presidential faceoff  -- hell's bells, the same goes for any statewide race -- simply won't matter in the end game.  There's no better chance to send the Dems a message they need to hear.

But it's on the GP to make that case.

-- I mentioned D-to-R judicial hopeful Nile Copeland at the end of this post and how it made me feel worse than Chris Bell endorsing King in the mayoral.  Copeland, a bit of a gun nut, was disillusioned by the fact that Amber and Steve Mostyn, Dave Mattheisen, and Gerry Birnberg pick the Democrats who will be judges in this county.  But his defection is part and parcel of a longstanding dysfunction within the Harris County Democratic Party; with the red unincorporated parts of the county balancing out the blue city, white establishment conservaDems like Copeland and Bell are bailing out as the two main D constituencies, blacks and gays, square off for full control.  You'll see that dynamic again in the spring primary for District Attorney (Kim Ogg versus Morris Overstreet) and County Tax Assessor/Collector (Brandon Dudley versus Ann Harris Bennett).  County chair Lane Lewis, having done a superlative job keeping the factions united in the runoff just concluded, now has to fend off a primary challenge from neophyte city council also-ran Philippe Nassif.  There's a caucus of millennial, neoliberal trust fund babies behind this effort.  I don't see a constituency that diverse winning much more than a precinct chairmanship, but stranger things have happened.

-- The best liberal Democrat likely to be on the November ballot, Lon Burnham, might have a shot at defeating Wayne Christian for the RRC if Clinton/Castro's coattails are long enough.  The sad part is that he's going to have to stick to them like glue, especially in the RGV.  That would be a sellout of progressive principles to electoral expediency for him.

-- Exhaustively more, but only about the duopoly candidates, at the TexTrib.

Stage set for last GOP debate of 2015 tomorrow night

Vox:

This debate (the fifth for the GOP) will feature nine candidates on the primetime stage. Just five of those nine managed to qualify by topping 3.5 percent in an average of national polls — Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and Jeb Bush. However, CNN also took polling averages in Iowa and New Hampshire into account, so Chris Christie, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, and Rand Paul also made the cut (though CNN had to bend its rules a bit to get Paul in).

Four other candidates — Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, and George Pataki — will be relegated to the earlier undercard debate. The other GOP candidate still running, Jim Gilmore, failed to qualify.

CNN will host, broadcast, and stream for free to non-cable subscribers.  Wolf Blitzer will moderate, Hugh Hewitt (you may recall he and Trump have some contentious history from September over terrorism) and Dana Bash will offer a few questions.

As far as as I'm concerned, the viable field of potential nominees consists of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Christie, whose rise to second in NH may carry him into the spring and the Massachusetts GOP primary on Super Tuesday (March 1).  But after that, it's a long way to the NY primary on April 19 and the New England Super Tuesday on April 26, and there's no other states that vote before then in which I see him competitive.

So call it Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Fat Bastard by late February, rolling toward South Carolina.

With concerns from the RNC and “establishment” conservatives such as Mitch McConnell, Trump is privy to a new level of internal scrutiny, facing the prospect of a brokered convention if he’s successful in the primaries. Trump has spoken of running as an independent, which was echoed on Friday by Ben Carson, who threatened to leave the Republican Party if he deemed it too unfriendly to less orthodox candidates.

With Cruz surging in the Iowa polls, endorsements rolling in, and conservatives starting to treat him as a sober alternative to Donald Trump, a strong performance on stage will likely propel him that much closer to winning the first round of 2016. Trump has insisted that the moment he starts attacking Cruz, the Texas Senator will suffer (he referred to Cruz as a “maniac” Sunday morning), but Cruz has shown durability as a Trump alternative. He took a commanding lead in Iowa polling over the weekend. There’s only one Republican debate after the next one before Iowans flock to the caucuses.

The Democrats will debate on Saturday night.

Clinton, Sanders, and O’Malley will debate this Saturday at 8 PM at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire. The debate will be hosted by ABC News, the New Hampshire Democratic Party, WMUR-TV, and the Union Leader. David Muir, Martha Raddatz, and Josh McElveen will moderate.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance congratulates Houston Mayor-elect Sylvester Turner as it brings you this week's lefty blog post roundup.

Off the Kuff examined the legal arguments in the latest voting rights case before SCOTUS.

Libby Shaw, contributing to Daily Kos, notes once again how Governor Greg Abbott brings out the absolute worst of Texas. This time it’s an attack  on Muslim families.

Socratic Gadfly offers up an environmental twofer. First, he looks at the Paris climate deal and calls it toothless bullshit. Second, he reviews a new book about the attempt to ban fracking in Denton, which includes comments from TXSharon.

And TXSharon (BlueDaze) has been in Paris for the climate change negotiations, and her organization, Earthjustice, had this press release at the conclusion of the negotiations.

In a post about the GOP squandering the youth vote (along with women, minorities, and even sane Republicans) PDiddie at Brains and Eggs suggests a ready-made platform issue for progressives: hiking the minimum wage.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is actually shocked at John Cornyn's hypocrisy over a Senate confirmation. Shouldn't be surprised, though. Hypocrisy is a Republican stock in trade.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston takes on arbitration clauses in retail contracts.

nonsequiteuse has a few snapshots of Abigail Fisher's childhood.

Neil at All People Have Value expressed hope that Houston Mayor-elect Sylvester Turner has the insight and imagination to look past the insiders and organized interests that seem to form his outlook, and to instead see the whole of the great City of Houston. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

==================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Wendy Davis and Hillary Clinton are equal opportunity opportunists, writes Somervell County Salon.

The Rag Blog's Ho-Ho-Happy Hour is the week before Christmas and features Jonah Raskin, author of a dozen books including biographies of Allen Ginsberg, Abbie Hoffman, and Jack London, as well as being the former Minister of Information for the Youth International Party (Yippies).

Trail Blazers catalogues the short journey of Garland's Katrina Pierson, from tea party star to "So, what, they're Muslim" fame.

Rick Green, a longtime associate of extreme fundamentalist Rev. David Barton, will run again for the Texas Supreme Court (via TFN Insider).

The Lunch Tray calls for a truce in the mommy food wars.

Fascist Dyke Motors has a question for you.

David Ortez wants to know why DPS is more likely to stop and search Latino drivers.

The San Antonio Current documents a racist meme (and the excellent reply to it) making the rounds about the first turbaned Sikh basketball player in NCAA history.

Mary Flood gives us the top ten Texas legal stories of the year.

Newsdesk and the Press were on the scene at the "mass shooting" protest and farting counter-protest in Austin.

And Eater Houston was first with the heavy snark about the Waller County sheriff having his arsenal of weapons stolen from his truck while he ate lunch.

Sunday Funnies

Penis transplants being planned to help wounded troops (NYT)

Turner wins tight race for Houston mayor

State Rep. Sylvester Turner won the Houston mayor's race with a down-to-the-wire finish to edge businessman Bill King Saturday.

At one point, with 53% of precincts reporting, Turner had a 500-vote lead over King.  That was half the number of undervotes in the contest at that time.  Later, with 82% in the can, King pulled ahead by 1600 votes in Harris County, but was still losing the race by about 1800... thanks to a 3400-vote lead in Fort Bend County, with predominantly African American and middle class precincts in Houston proper.  Turner got 93% of the vote there.

Turner wound up carrying all three counties narrowly, but it was the cushion in Fort Bend -- and the pathetic 4% turnout in Montgomery County, which gave King a 100-vote margin -- that made the difference.  In a race this close, though, almost anything could have changed the outcome.  In Harris, for example, 208,600 votes were counted for the two candidates, and Turner carried the county by less than 700.  But 1,188 Houston residents did not vote for either candidate, and -- even weirder -- 6 people voted for both of them.  (Don't ask me to explain this.)

Chris Brown defeated Bill Frazer to be the city's controller for the next four years in slightly more comfortable fashion, 52-48 or about 8K out of 179K cast, with nearly 30K undervotes.

Mike Knox defeated Georgia Provost 52-48 in AL 1, incumbent David Robinson prevailed over Willie Davis 54-46 in AL 2, Amanda Edwards trounced Roy Morales with 62% to win AL 4, and shitty Jack Christie got 58% against shittier Sharon Moses in AL 5.  The real news in these citywide races was the massive amount of undervoting; AL 2 and AL 5 both had over 45,000 'none of the aboves', more than 20% of their total.

In the district runoffs, Mike Laster won easily with 65%, Karla Cisneros beat Jason Cisneroz by a 55-45 spread, but incumbent Richard Nguyen was defeated by Steve Le 51-49 in one of the uglier contests in recent memory.

HISD incumbents Rhonda Skillern-Jones and Manuel Rodriguez held onto their seats as well.

Thus Council gains a TeaBagger, Knox, to replace the moderate Steve Costello, gets a little more liberal with Edwards replacing C.O. Bradford, and we'll wait to see what we get with Le replacing Nguyen.  The rest of the new faces may be a wash, ideologically.

The deadline to file for the 2016 primaries is Monday and we'll quickly turn our local and statewide attention to that.  I'll have more shortly about Nile Copeland, the Democratic judicial candidate for Court of Appeals in 2012 -- a fellow I endorsed and spoke highly of  -- who's running for a state district judgeship as a Republican in 2016.  He's on the right in the photo below from Bill King's defeat party last night.  On the left is Tex Christopher, who's running for the chairmanship of the Harris County Republican Party.

This feels like a larger betrayal than even Chris Bell's, to be honest.

It's Election Day

Republicans are turning out their vote.



Charles and Free Press Houston have the pertinent data if you still need it.  You have my recommendations.  You gonna let a little rain today stop you?

What I will be watching for as the returns roll in is turnout in places like District C (Chuck again) and the undervotes in all races, but especially AL 5.  Most are too close to call, but if push came to shove I'd say we'll have Mayor Turner and Controller Frazer, with AL CMs Provost, Robinson, Edwards, and Christie (yuck) joining district CMs Le, Cisneros with an 's', and Laster taking seats around the horseshoe.  That would represent little ideological change from the previous Council, with the exception of the Republican in the bean counter's office.  If I'm right, we might see some flinty sparks between Fraser and Turner (scroll to the end) in 2016 and beyond... the next four years, as you may remember.  I could, of course, be wrong about some of these predictions (or all of them).

Recall also that Bob Stein, the cycle's most accurate pollster, thinks King has won the early voting and Turner will win today.  The final question is who won by how much.  So when Clerk Stanart finally flashes the EV to HarrisVotes.com shortly after 7 p.m. this evening, you'll have a pretty good idea how late you want to stay up, election night parties or no.

There's a very Merry Christmas in store for a few folks, not so much for some others.  About twelve hours from now, we'll see who got sugarplums and who got a lump of coal.

Republicans also losing the youth vote

That is, in addition to women, minorities, and those sane Republicans still left out there.  A couple of Texas anecdotes worth repeating.

Just over a month ago C.J. Pearson was a 13-year-old conservative social media sensation, booming support for Sen.Ted Cruz. Now, he has not only disavowed conservatism, he is the new youthful voice of the Sen. Bernie Sanders campaign.

“They used to call me a conservative wunderkind. Now, I’m just CJ. The semi-exciting independent from GA feeling the Bern,” Pearson wrote, in his updated Twitter bio.

Pearson shot to conservative stardom in February with a viral video questioning President Barack Obama’s love for the United States. It gave Pearson a massive social media following, which Cruz targeted in September when he named Pearson the chairman of Teens for Ted.
 
Pearson’s stuck with the Cruz campaign from Sept. 8 to Oct. 31. He abruptly left the position, asserting that Cruz “wasn’t doing enough to address the issues important to young people like student loan debt and youth unemployment.”

And this one.

The Texas state director of Republican presidential hopeful Jeb Bush's young donor program has quit and is planning to join the campaign of Democrat Martin O'Malley.

Shooter Russell, a University of Texas sophomore who since June had held the formal role with Bush's "Mission: NEXT program," told the Houston Chronicle he made the switch because of the GOP's opposition to people fleeing war-torn Syria.

"The final nail in the coffin were Trump's comments on Muslims, the inaction by the party, and our very own state's actions on blocking Syrian refugees," said Russell, who added that he has cousins who do mission work in the Middle East.

As state director, Russell said he oversaw about 80 volunteers at 15 chapters across the state, set up phone-banking plans and helped organize an event featuring Bush's son, Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Now, he said, he is planning to travel to Iowa to campaign for O'Malley...

Probably doesn't mean much of anything, a 13-year old high school freshman or a 19-year old college undergrad changing their minds and  switching parties.  After all, they're no Sarah Slamen.

In a related post, Zach Taylor points out that if Bernie Sanders is on the ballot, then so is the minimum wage, and there is evidence demonstrating that issue drives non-voters to the polls.  How many young people of voting age work for minimum wage?  Glad you asked.  Pew Research tells us that the number of Americans aged 21-30 who work for more than the minimum wage but less than $10.10 an hour (which, coincidentally, happens to be very close to what the minimum wage would be if it only kept up with inflation) is 35.2%, using year-old data.

If I were supporting Hillary Clinton, for example, I might concerned about the fact that she supports a minimum wage increase to $12, while Sanders calls for $15, and a productivity adjustment from the late 1960's to 2012 would dictate a minimum wage of nearly $22 dollars an hour.

We're also not going to entertain any whining from the "job creators" when there is proof of prosperity for all when the wage gets raised, and especially not when they're stashing trillions offshore and performing mergers and tax inversions as fast they can.

You paying attention, Democrats?  Here's another clue to electoral victory in 2016.

Since nonvoters tend to be younger, less white, poorer and more mobile than voters, this isn’t entirely surprising. But one reason these findings are so striking is that voters and nonvoters hold broadly similar views on a range of other controversial issues. Christopher Ellis, an assistant professor of political science at Bucknell, tells me that gaps on issues like abortion, immigration, and gun control are comparatively modest (he is supported by Pew research). But economic issues are different.

It's always been the economy, stupids.  People vote their pocketbook, and when nobody's talking about their pocketbook, they don't vote.

Progressive candidates -- from the Democratic or the Green Party -- who can speak with conviction about raising the minimum wage, who can contrast the overwhelming majority of all Americans who support raising it against the corporations who oppose, while renouncing their U.S. "citizenship" and shifting profits offshore to avoid paying their fair share of taxes (a tab the rest of us have to pick up) as deserters, or traitors to America ... win.

That's a campaign platform all by itself.

TX Railroad Commission: Porter out, Patterson in (maybe); Naishtat retires from House

We haven't had any Lege business to blog about since the end of the regular session in the summer, so this filing news today, mostly broken by Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report, reminds us that a lot of this shuffling is going to happen between now and next Monday's deadline.

-- First: RRC incumbent David Porter, a beancounter by trade and an industry flack by choice, finally realized the jig is up and is sliding out the back door.  He's got an unable and unworthy replacement considering a jump back onto the state's payroll.

Texas Railroad Commission Chairman David Porter on Thursday morning announced he is withdrawing from the race to serve another term at the state’s oil and gas regulator.

Moments after the announcement, former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson told Quorum Report he is considering a run for the seat.

“This decision was not an easy one, but I feel that all the goals I set out to achieve were accomplished during my tenure,” Porter said. “Now is a good time to focus on my family and my return to the private sector. Effectively managing the agency as Chairman, updating Commission rules and regulations, and continuing the diligent work of the Eagle Ford Shale Task Force will be the top priorities for the remainder of my term,” he said.

Patterson told QR he is making calls and trying to figure out what kind of support he would have if he announced for the seat.

“My experience is deep and wide. I will be able to perform the duties of Railroad Commissioner on day one,” Patterson said.

Patterson was fourth out of four in the running for lieutenant governor in the spring of 2014, and threw barbs at Dan Patrick in the runoff.  He's always been known as a straight shooter, but this is the season of Trump for Texas Republicans, and Patterson hasn't demonstrated enough meanness in the recent past.  Porter already had two low-grade contenders -- see here -- for his seat.

Update: Current GOP state Rep. Jim Keffer and former state rep Wayne Christian -- who mounted a failed bid for the RRC two years ago -- are also reported to be in or close to getting in.

-- The strongest liberal Democrat in the Texas House pulls the chain.

State Rep. Elliott Naishtat won’t run for reelection after all.

After indicating last week that he wouldn’t run and then saying earlier this week that he would, the 70-year-old Austin Democrat said Thursday that he is withdrawing his name from the ballot.

[...]

Naishtat called several local Democrats who may be interested in his seat to tell them about his decision. Potential candidates include: political consultant Katie Naranjo, Austin school board President Gina Hinojosa and legislative aide Huey Rey Fischer. Austin City Council Member Ann Kitchen, who was rumored to be mulling a run, said Thursday she will not get in the race.

Naishtat had a minor health scare in the summer of 2014, so this may have figured into his back-and-forth about serving another two years at 70.  He wasn't one of those Texas House Dems who voted against Denton's fracking ban, nor has he endorsed a Republican for Houston city council.  He was always the guy who could be relied on as a progressive who voted his conscience over political expediency.  Like Lon Burnham, he'll be greatly missed in Austin.  Big shoes to fill for whichever of those challengers emerges from the primary.

Update: Naranjo is out, Fischer is in, and several more ins and outs from Harold Cook.

Some of yesterday's enduring images