Filing deadline news and reax

-- Tipped by Bill King flack Campos several days ago (scroll to the end), Adrian Garcia files at the last minute against Rep. Gene Green.  Don't much care who wins between the two; I consider them both tools of the establishment.  Green is deeply embedded with the petroleum interests, Garcia with the Republicrat politicos like Tony Buzbee and Bill White.  This is a Dumb and Dumber primary, and the voters in the 29th get to decide which one is which.  When even Annise Parker is throwing shade, you should be able to figure out you're just another unemployed stooge trying to get back on the public payroll.

Funny, I thought he wanted to be Mayor of Houston.-A https://t.co/OMyVmQgEZc

— Annise Parker (@AnniseParker) December 15, 2015

-- I do like TMF to prevail in his grudge rematch with state Sen. José Menéndez.  But does anybody else wonder why Leticia Van de Putte isn't running for something in 2016?

  -- The two "third" parties in Texas are officially in trouble.

Greens, Libertarians at risk of losing automatic access to '18 general election ballot with Rs and Ds in all seven statewide races #txlege

— TX Election Source (@TXElects) December 14, 2015

Gadfly has the gameplan.  There's every opportunity for Texas Greens to take a big step forward: the choices will come down to Hillary and some godawful Republican, be it Trump, Cruz, or Rubio; the GPUS presidential nominating convention is in Houston this summer, and Bernie Sanders supporters have no logical place to go.  Texas Democratic votes in the November presidential faceoff  -- hell's bells, the same goes for any statewide race -- simply won't matter in the end game.  There's no better chance to send the Dems a message they need to hear.

But it's on the GP to make that case.

-- I mentioned D-to-R judicial hopeful Nile Copeland at the end of this post and how it made me feel worse than Chris Bell endorsing King in the mayoral.  Copeland, a bit of a gun nut, was disillusioned by the fact that Amber and Steve Mostyn, Dave Mattheisen, and Gerry Birnberg pick the Democrats who will be judges in this county.  But his defection is part and parcel of a longstanding dysfunction within the Harris County Democratic Party; with the red unincorporated parts of the county balancing out the blue city, white establishment conservaDems like Copeland and Bell are bailing out as the two main D constituencies, blacks and gays, square off for full control.  You'll see that dynamic again in the spring primary for District Attorney (Kim Ogg versus Morris Overstreet) and County Tax Assessor/Collector (Brandon Dudley versus Ann Harris Bennett).  County chair Lane Lewis, having done a superlative job keeping the factions united in the runoff just concluded, now has to fend off a primary challenge from neophyte city council also-ran Philippe Nassif.  There's a caucus of millennial, neoliberal trust fund babies behind this effort.  I don't see a constituency that diverse winning much more than a precinct chairmanship, but stranger things have happened.

-- The best liberal Democrat likely to be on the November ballot, Lon Burnham, might have a shot at defeating Wayne Christian for the RRC if Clinton/Castro's coattails are long enough.  The sad part is that he's going to have to stick to them like glue, especially in the RGV.  That would be a sellout of progressive principles to electoral expediency for him.

-- Exhaustively more, but only about the duopoly candidates, at the TexTrib.

Stage set for last GOP debate of 2015 tomorrow night

Vox:

This debate (the fifth for the GOP) will feature nine candidates on the primetime stage. Just five of those nine managed to qualify by topping 3.5 percent in an average of national polls — Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and Jeb Bush. However, CNN also took polling averages in Iowa and New Hampshire into account, so Chris Christie, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, and Rand Paul also made the cut (though CNN had to bend its rules a bit to get Paul in).

Four other candidates — Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, and George Pataki — will be relegated to the earlier undercard debate. The other GOP candidate still running, Jim Gilmore, failed to qualify.

CNN will host, broadcast, and stream for free to non-cable subscribers.  Wolf Blitzer will moderate, Hugh Hewitt (you may recall he and Trump have some contentious history from September over terrorism) and Dana Bash will offer a few questions.

As far as as I'm concerned, the viable field of potential nominees consists of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Christie, whose rise to second in NH may carry him into the spring and the Massachusetts GOP primary on Super Tuesday (March 1).  But after that, it's a long way to the NY primary on April 19 and the New England Super Tuesday on April 26, and there's no other states that vote before then in which I see him competitive.

So call it Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Fat Bastard by late February, rolling toward South Carolina.

With concerns from the RNC and “establishment” conservatives such as Mitch McConnell, Trump is privy to a new level of internal scrutiny, facing the prospect of a brokered convention if he’s successful in the primaries. Trump has spoken of running as an independent, which was echoed on Friday by Ben Carson, who threatened to leave the Republican Party if he deemed it too unfriendly to less orthodox candidates.

With Cruz surging in the Iowa polls, endorsements rolling in, and conservatives starting to treat him as a sober alternative to Donald Trump, a strong performance on stage will likely propel him that much closer to winning the first round of 2016. Trump has insisted that the moment he starts attacking Cruz, the Texas Senator will suffer (he referred to Cruz as a “maniac” Sunday morning), but Cruz has shown durability as a Trump alternative. He took a commanding lead in Iowa polling over the weekend. There’s only one Republican debate after the next one before Iowans flock to the caucuses.

The Democrats will debate on Saturday night.

Clinton, Sanders, and O’Malley will debate this Saturday at 8 PM at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire. The debate will be hosted by ABC News, the New Hampshire Democratic Party, WMUR-TV, and the Union Leader. David Muir, Martha Raddatz, and Josh McElveen will moderate.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance congratulates Houston Mayor-elect Sylvester Turner as it brings you this week's lefty blog post roundup.

Off the Kuff examined the legal arguments in the latest voting rights case before SCOTUS.

Libby Shaw, contributing to Daily Kos, notes once again how Governor Greg Abbott brings out the absolute worst of Texas. This time it’s an attack  on Muslim families.

Socratic Gadfly offers up an environmental twofer. First, he looks at the Paris climate deal and calls it toothless bullshit. Second, he reviews a new book about the attempt to ban fracking in Denton, which includes comments from TXSharon.

And TXSharon (BlueDaze) has been in Paris for the climate change negotiations, and her organization, Earthjustice, had this press release at the conclusion of the negotiations.

In a post about the GOP squandering the youth vote (along with women, minorities, and even sane Republicans) PDiddie at Brains and Eggs suggests a ready-made platform issue for progressives: hiking the minimum wage.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is actually shocked at John Cornyn's hypocrisy over a Senate confirmation. Shouldn't be surprised, though. Hypocrisy is a Republican stock in trade.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston takes on arbitration clauses in retail contracts.

nonsequiteuse has a few snapshots of Abigail Fisher's childhood.

Neil at All People Have Value expressed hope that Houston Mayor-elect Sylvester Turner has the insight and imagination to look past the insiders and organized interests that seem to form his outlook, and to instead see the whole of the great City of Houston. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Wendy Davis and Hillary Clinton are equal opportunity opportunists, writes Somervell County Salon.

The Rag Blog's Ho-Ho-Happy Hour is the week before Christmas and features Jonah Raskin, author of a dozen books including biographies of Allen Ginsberg, Abbie Hoffman, and Jack London, as well as being the former Minister of Information for the Youth International Party (Yippies).

Trail Blazers catalogues the short journey of Garland's Katrina Pierson, from tea party star to "So, what, they're Muslim" fame.

Rick Green, a longtime associate of extreme fundamentalist Rev. David Barton, will run again for the Texas Supreme Court (via TFN Insider).

The Lunch Tray calls for a truce in the mommy food wars.

Fascist Dyke Motors has a question for you.

David Ortez wants to know why DPS is more likely to stop and search Latino drivers.

The San Antonio Current documents a racist meme (and the excellent reply to it) making the rounds about the first turbaned Sikh basketball player in NCAA history.

Mary Flood gives us the top ten Texas legal stories of the year.

Newsdesk and the Press were on the scene at the "mass shooting" protest and farting counter-protest in Austin.

And Eater Houston was first with the heavy snark about the Waller County sheriff having his arsenal of weapons stolen from his truck while he ate lunch.

Sunday Funnies

Penis transplants being planned to help wounded troops (NYT)

Turner wins tight race for Houston mayor

State Rep. Sylvester Turner won the Houston mayor's race with a down-to-the-wire finish to edge businessman Bill King Saturday.

At one point, with 53% of precincts reporting, Turner had a 500-vote lead over King.  That was half the number of undervotes in the contest at that time.  Later, with 82% in the can, King pulled ahead by 1600 votes in Harris County, but was still losing the race by about 1800... thanks to a 3400-vote lead in Fort Bend County, with predominantly African American and middle class precincts in Houston proper.  Turner got 93% of the vote there.

Turner wound up carrying all three counties narrowly, but it was the cushion in Fort Bend -- and the pathetic 4% turnout in Montgomery County, which gave King a 100-vote margin -- that made the difference.  In a race this close, though, almost anything could have changed the outcome.  In Harris, for example, 208,600 votes were counted for the two candidates, and Turner carried the county by less than 700.  But 1,188 Houston residents did not vote for either candidate, and -- even weirder -- 6 people voted for both of them.  (Don't ask me to explain this.)

Chris Brown defeated Bill Frazer to be the city's controller for the next four years in slightly more comfortable fashion, 52-48 or about 8K out of 179K cast, with nearly 30K undervotes.

Mike Knox defeated Georgia Provost 52-48 in AL 1, incumbent David Robinson prevailed over Willie Davis 54-46 in AL 2, Amanda Edwards trounced Roy Morales with 62% to win AL 4, and shitty Jack Christie got 58% against shittier Sharon Moses in AL 5.  The real news in these citywide races was the massive amount of undervoting; AL 2 and AL 5 both had over 45,000 'none of the aboves', more than 20% of their total.

In the district runoffs, Mike Laster won easily with 65%, Karla Cisneros beat Jason Cisneroz by a 55-45 spread, but incumbent Richard Nguyen was defeated by Steve Le 51-49 in one of the uglier contests in recent memory.

HISD incumbents Rhonda Skillern-Jones and Manuel Rodriguez held onto their seats as well.

Thus Council gains a TeaBagger, Knox, to replace the moderate Steve Costello, gets a little more liberal with Edwards replacing C.O. Bradford, and we'll wait to see what we get with Le replacing Nguyen.  The rest of the new faces may be a wash, ideologically.

The deadline to file for the 2016 primaries is Monday and we'll quickly turn our local and statewide attention to that.  I'll have more shortly about Nile Copeland, the Democratic judicial candidate for Court of Appeals in 2012 -- a fellow I endorsed and spoke highly of  -- who's running for a state district judgeship as a Republican in 2016.  He's on the right in the photo below from Bill King's defeat party last night.  On the left is Tex Christopher, who's running for the chairmanship of the Harris County Republican Party.

This feels like a larger betrayal than even Chris Bell's, to be honest.