Reading the turnout tea leaves on the mayor's race

First, this hit my mailbox yesterday.

Campos has already whined about it, so I'm just posting to let him know that an English-speaking household received it.  As he notes, the CWA, whose name is on it as sender, is supporting Sylvester Turner, and the "Vote 'No' on Adrian Garcia" piece -- which for the record is not possible; one cannot 'no' on a mayoral candidate, only for some other one -- is indeed designed to do what Turner wants it to do.

"For me, it doesn’t matter who’s in second or third," Turner said after shaking hands at a retirement community on the city's southwest side. "My deal is on November the third, I want to make sure that we’re No. 1 and that No. 2 is so far behind that it really doesn’t matter."

He's not shaking off Bill King, however, and that's the fellow all the pundits are predicting will join the former state representative in the runoff, based on the surging early vote in certain parts of town.

"We're seeing heavy early voting turnout in places like the west side and Clear Lake (which are traditional Republican strongholds)," Stein said. "We're also seeing heavy early voting turnout in African-American precincts." [...] "I assume that's due to two things: the mayor's race where Sylvester Turner's a very prominent black (candidate) and a very large number of African Americans voting for controller and at large (council seats). So I think they're moving the early vote. Any candidate who knows who their base is likes to get their vote out early."

Why conservative black voters wouldn't be turning out for Ben Hall, who has sold himself as the candidate most strongly against HERO, is part of Stein's predictive analysis based on his previous poll -- which I castigated but which has been verified to some degree by later polling -- in which he raved about King's surge, and does so again.

Meanwhile, polling has indicated Republican voters have been breaking for King over Steve Costello, who's also angling for GOP votes. So a high turnout at traditionally Republican polling places like the Trini Mendenhall Sosa Center on Houston's west side, is good news for King, Stein said.

"There were so many undecided Republican voters who were breaking in our poll very clearly towards Bill King," Stein said. "That would be a real indication that he's likely to be in the runoff."

This is the safe bet (a black Democrat, long the front-runner by every measure, and a white Republican) and we'll just wait to see if these professional prognosticators are right.   I am hoping they are wrong, and so do the supporters of Costello and Garcia, too.  Both of those last two have had their troubles.

“No question, he simply failed to respond to this, and voters penalized him accordingly," said Bob Stein, a Rice University political scientist who predicted last week that Garcia would continue to be haunted by the slide through Election Day.

[...]

"... Costello, I think, is just not able to win support from the base Republican vote that's out there that he should have been able to win as a three-term incumbent councilmember."

Down the ballot, if King makes the runoff and you have two At Large Republicans -- Michael Kubosh and Jack Christie -- in runoffs with Democrats, that December dynamic (Turner vs. King) may help them stay in office.  Both may avoid the runoff altogether if HERO is indeed driving scads of fearful, angry conservatives to the polls.  If two Democrats -- Turner and Chris Bell, Turner and Garcia -- move on to the final round, then the fortunes of those two AL CMs change entirely; Republicans without a mayoral hopeful stay home for the holiday voting.  Those two races, AL 3 and AL 5, are what I'll watch on Election Night.  Their outcomes will determine whether Democrats have a good night or not (and we may be castigating liberal non-voters again on the morning after).

Who else is helped by continued strong turnout among white conservatives and African American voters?  Perhaps Chris Oliver in AL 1, Andrew Burks and Eric Dick in AL 2, and Laurie Robinson in AL 3 4, all with a measure of name recognition and some with elected experience.  Who's hurt?  Maybe the white progressives: Lane Lewis in AL 1, incumbent David Robinson in AL 2, Doug Peterson in AL 3, and even not-Caucasian Philippe Nassif in AL 5.  GOTV efforts need to be energized now for these campaigns.

Still, the electorate for Houston municipal contests has historically skewed old, white, and Democratic, so if there's any trend left to discern, it's whether that one holds or gets revised after this election.

I'm watching things closely, just like you.

Update: Texas Leftist bemoans the missing millennial vote.

Update II: An email from the Turner campaigns ups the ante.

More than 15,000 people who haven't voted in a mayoral election in years have already voted early in this election.

We don't know why they're voting this time around, but we do know that makes this election unpredictable.

They're zombies, and they're voting against HERO, because they don't like heroes of any kind.  So for God's sake, get out there and cancel them out -- I mean, their votes.

Halfway through EV and HERO supporters are nervous

First there's Greg and then there's Charles.  Carl Whitmarsh also mentioned the boost in numbers from Republican city council districts that put them well ahead of Latino ones.  As everyone always says at this point in the election cycle, it could mean something or not.

The Chron primes the pump, stoking some scary stories about the Homophobe Apocalypse.

In an incendiary, lengthy address, (good old Doctor Steven) Hotze went on to link America's war against Nazi Germany to the war on gay rights, urging all gay Houstonians to flee to San Francisco. The sword, he said, was meant to represent God's word, the strongest weapon against the gay community.

"The homosexuals are hate-mongers," Hotze said at the time. "They hate God, they hate God's word, they hate Christ, they hate anything that's good and wholesome and right. They want to pervert everything."

Fear is, as everybody knows by now, a primary human motivator.  In my post from January of 2014 -- in which I predicted the Wendy Davis/Texas Democratic debacle ten months ahead of time -- my advice then was for Democrats to go long on fear.  I'm not certain whether they took my advice or not, but they got wiped out anyway.

And here we see history perhaps on the verge of repeating itself in Houston, one of the nation's great and diverse cities, but with an ugly, hateful underbelly that dresses up and goes to church in order to magnify its hatred -- not of the "sin" but the sinners, despite what their Bibles tell them -- in a way that is sometimes difficult to comprehend.  (It's not so difficult if your history book reflects the fact that Christians and crusades are frequently mentioned in the same sentence as "just wars", but that's a digression.)

So the fear might come from stupidity or it might come from ignorance (two different things; ignorance suggests being uninformed and a willingness to learn), but wherever it originates, it's hard to defeat in a short, quick battle.  When the haters led by the pastors obfuscate and prevaricate about the ordinance, the rational response is to answer with the facts.

The Rev. Becky Edmiston-Lange, co-pastor of the Emerson Unitarian Universalist Church, dismissed concerns over sexual predation as "displaying a fundamental ignorance of transgender reality."

"It tries to raise the specter of fear of children and women being molested," she said. "People don't stop and think we have transgender children who have to be protected, and, frankly, are more at risk of being attacked for non-conforming gender identity than straight kids."

Edmiston-Lange said her church "historically has thought of God as a God of love, and that all human beings are God's children. God doesn't discriminate, and neither should the law."

Or as Mayor Annise Parker broke it down...

"They have taken a misunderstood group, demonized them, and then flat-out lied about the consequences of the ordinance," Parker said. "They are less understood. And I can't say - even with transgender friends and acquaintances and a long association with the transgender community - that I completely understand it. But I don't have to understand it. I just have to give another human being respect."

The pacifist in me understands that love conquers all, that tolerance is the way.  The warrior in me says that you need to fight fire with fire, drive out the stupid, educate the ignorant.   With less than a week to go in EV, before Election Day in one week, now might be a good time to focus on fighting and winning.  We can work on healing the divisions after the mongrels have been vanquished.  Once love rules, we can focus on understanding.  For now, let's abandon peace.

Go back to work and don't stop until the polls close next Tuesday night.  That's what the haters are doing, after all.

The Frightful Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is scouting out pumpkin patches as it brings you this week's roundup.  Here's 14 Halloween costumes you really shouldn't wear this year (or any year).  The Great Trumpkin is fair game, but may be too popular and thus prevalent.  I'd go as Bernie Sanders if I were doing any cosplay myself (just shave the top of of your head, spray paint the rest white, and put on a suit).

Off the Kuff looked at early voting trends for 2015.

Socratic Gadfly told people who had not yet been to the polls to vote No to 6 of 7 on the constitutional amendments propositions.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos and contributing to Daily Kos explores the devastation to women's health care options in Texas, compliments of the state's far right Republican policies: The Texas GOP and its unforgiving War on Women.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is horrified at the Republicans use of state power to abuse Planned Parenthood, their patients, their employees, their associates and the people of Texas.

All of the political mail, door hangers, and assorted communication from the upcoming election for 2015 was photographed, discussed, and then recycled by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

Texas Leftist makes his endorsements in the 2015 Houston elections.

Egberto Willies branded the corporate media "failed" as their sluggish response to the Big Pharma Bro's immoral price hike of an HIV medication revealed them as complicit in the scamming of Americans by the drug companies.

The Lewisville Texan Journal had more information on the road rage shooting incident in that city.

Realizing the value of everyday life, which when asserted against the elite and insider absence of values of the establishments of both major parties is a possible starting point for an uprising or people's movement, Neil at All People Have Value took two pictures of traffic in Houston. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Better Texas Blog analyzes State Propositions 1 and 7, and Streetsblog advocates against Prop 7.

The San Antonio Current reports on the 30.06 signs that Rep. Diego Bernal is providing local businesses who do not want to allow open carry on their premises.

Fascist Dyke Motors voted and feels good about it.

Texas Watch provides five things to know when filing a wildfire insurance claim.

Millard Fillmore's Bathtub watched with mouth agape as Greg Abbott took the side of cancer against Texans, and then bragged about it.

Bekah McNeel vents her shame and outrage at being fooled by Volkswagon.

The Texas Election Law Blog answers your questions about homeless voting.

Prairie Weather once again observes that Congressional and state Republicans are coordinating their attacks on healthcare, specifically Obamacare and Planned Parenthood.

Yellow Doggerel Democrat noted the pro-immigration protestor at a Trump rally who was kicked and dragged from the room as the audience chanted "USA, USA".

Somervell County Salon remembers why she dislikes Hillary Clinton so much.

And Kate Braun at the Rag Blog wants to be certain we all celebrate Samhain -- err, Halloween, in the proper pagan way.

Sunday Funnies

Makes as much sense as spending the past 14 years blaming Ralph Nader.

"Why the Corporate Media won't tell you that Hillary Clinton is a Lying Fascist"

All the political literature I received this cycle

I think that's all of it, anyway.  In the bottom right corner you see the three door hangers I got during the summer.  As best I can tell my door hasn't been knocked upon since Labor Day.

It should be noted that I am a "Triple-D" household according to the public voting records.  That means I have voted in the three most recent Democratic primaries -- 2014, 2012, 2010.  To the best of my knowledge, I have not received a telephone call from any campaign.  At least if they called me, they didn't leave a message.

I'm not sure why the Christie and Hall campaigns would drop literature at a DDD home, but there you have it.  My precinct is purple; blue in presidential years and red in midterms.  Can you imagine the volume of mail those dumbass Democrats who vote in GOP primaries have gotten?

I finally managed to vote on Wednesday, so if any of these campaigns are still mailing me after that, then they're more stupid than I can comprehend.  The SOS can merge/purge voters from the non's overnight, at least as I understand it, so that campaigns aren't still trying to persuade people who have already cast a ballot.  And to be fair, direct mail consultants still have to deal with the lag of a few days between printing and dropping (into your mailbox).

Tom McCasland wins largest mail piece; two 8 1/2 x 11s.  They stick up the highest out of my green recycle bin.  Amanda Edwards wins for frequency: three.  Statewide Prop 1 backers spent the most out of the subset of non-candidate-related mailings.  Chris Brown should look at the camera more often (all those shots of him looking down or away project weakness, IMHO).

One other thing: my next door neighbor -- not a Democratic primary voter for at least the past six years; remember I've been a precinct captain and worked the walk lists -- received an Adrian Garcia mailing (letter, probably donation solicitation) so either the former sheriff is wasting his considerable sum of money to a far greater extent than everyone else, or is soliciting Republican voters.  I'm guessing it's the latter.

I can count on one hand the teevee commercials I have seen; two for Steve Costello and one for Garcia.  But I don't watch much teevee either, certainly not local, news or otherwise, so I'm not a good barometer of that medium's reach.

Is anybody besides me embarrassed about this?  That this is what our local demonstration of democracy plutocracy/oligarchy looks like?  Frankly I would rather be bum-rushed by ten people with pushcards at the polling place.  At least I can say 'no thank you'.  I can't do anything with all of this crap except recycle it.

What would seven million bucks -- and that's just the mayorals, mind you -- have been better spent on?  How many potholes would that have filled if you stuffed them with cash and just topped them off with asphalt?

We need a better democracy than "who has/raises the most money".  Keep in mind that Costello, Bill King, and Ben Hall -- all losers, hopefully -- self-funded their campaigns.  If they're so rich, why ain't they smart?  But is it better to be held captive by the wealthiest, like Garcia and Sylvester Turner could be?

A better political system is needed, please.  One without so much money.

"What Time is the Coronation" scattershooting

-- Make way for the Queen.  I wonder who the Republicans will run in 2020?

#FreeHillary became a trend after eleven hours of Q&A.  This one, though, is best.

Well this is just a tremendous GIF. #BenghaziCommittee pic.twitter.com/Bnpi6rcQ43

— Dan Zak (@MrDanZak) October 22, 2015

Benghazzzzzz...

-- Trump lost his lead in Iowa, and promptly blamed Monsanto.

Later, he deleted it and blamed a "young intern".  Oh, those millennials.

-- The real black brain surgeon takes over front-runner status in the Hawkeye State, and naturally gives all the glory to God.

You know, the draft movement built and I finally said, "Lord, I don't particularly want to do this, it's not on my bucket list, but if you want me to do it, you open the doors and I'll walk through them and if you close the doors, I'll sit down."

And the doors began flying open, much to the consternation of all the professional class and all the pundits who said, "It's impossible, you can't possibly put together a national organization as a political neophyte, you don't know any of the people, there's no money. You can't do it, it's impossible, forget about it."

And yet, you see, it’s happening. And they don’t understand the power of God.

Who does God pick in the World Series, Doctor?

God is also telling Carson that Medicare should be abolished and that the Queen is going to jail.  (That's probably Sean Hannity doing the talking there, to be fair.)

-- Turnout for Houston's elections looks a little stronger than years past, but not all that much.  Some of the EV boxes in Republican parts of town are heavy, and in predominantly African American precincts as well, which might be good for those candidates (black and/or conservative) in close races.  With the understanding that Latino voters don't live in clustered neighborhoods so much as they live all over the city, I don't see anything suggesting a "historic turnout" for "the community" that might be helping Adrian Garcia.  And it's still far too early to divine any significant trend.

When Campos says "don't focus on the votes, focus on the percentages", remember that percentages don't count in the tabulation of election winners.  I wish I didn't have to keep pointing out what a moron this guy is, but he just makes it necessary.  He was a joke ten years ago, and it's still not funny after a decade.  One of his clients may be replacing Ed Gonzales on council; she has no primary voting history going back three cycles (scroll halfway down to District H).  The Chronicle endorsed her, but they also endorsed Mitt Romney for president and Ted Cruz for the US Senate.  She might be a nice lady and even a qualified candidate, but why would you vote for someone who has held office as a school trustee and now wants a promotion to city council who can't be bothered to vote in primary elections?  Her questionnaire says she is not educating voters on photo ID.  That's real helpful for a Latina candidate in a predominantly Latino/a district.

Update: Please note Edward Ybarra's remarks in the comments section.

Seems to me there are better options for District H representative (except for one, that is).