Showing posts sorted by relevance for query mark jones. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query mark jones. Sort by date Show all posts

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Reconnoitering

But still no time for anything but an assembly.

-- Trey's rant about the Lone Star media was... okay.  I don't understand how anybody can call me vulgar after that, but all of McB's drunken-sailor-ishness doesn't detract (much) from his point: that the people covering politics in Texas day to day are simply a weak bunch, and especially from a historical perspective.  That isn't going to change, and if the Davis campaign is looking for a break... that ain't happening either.

The Texas Tribune apparently represents the best that it's going to get, and they are consumed with the horse-race aspect while at the same time advancing the usual false equivalencies that are by now just lazy and sloppy.  Click here, and then compare the headline to what you read in the address bar (the former headline, I presume).  And Charles Kuffner is absolutely correct: the next time you see "Mark Jones" in a story on Texas politics, just stop reading.

But the bottom line for Wendy Davis remains the same: her campaign is going to have to make something happen and stop reacting to what's happening.

-- I thought that Gadfly one-upped me with this.

Greg Abbott wouldn't want the political correctness police to treat his candidacy with kid gloves related to his physical handicap limitations, now would he?

We know that a good conservative like Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott would never, ever succumb to political correctness, now, would he?

Of course not. A rugged individualist hombre who can shoot thousand upon thousands of clay pigeons with a powerful 12-gauge loaded with double-aught buckshot a light, likely multi-round chambered 20-gauge shotgun with barely-more-than-blanks skeet loads surely doesn't need the support of librul buzz words, coded phrases and mollycoddling language, does he?

Or does he?

"Stand Up, Stand Up for Jesus", indeed.  I remember singing that in church when I was a kid.


I wonder how Greg Abbott feels when he sings it.  To have to live with the fact that he can't, I mean.  Does that foster shame, or embarrassment, or some kind of putrid self-hatred?  Can you get counseling to deal with it?  It's probably covered by Obamacare, but not Medicaid, even under the terms of expansion that General AbouttheSame has no more intention of accepting than Governor Goodhair.

Neither of them should ever have to worry about being on Medicaid, after all.

-- Some Republicans have started an anti-Nathan Hecht campaign.  There's a Twitter account as well.  If you want something a little more serious -- and not seriously stupid all the time -- with your Texas Supreme Court campaign soup, then head on over and read John Coppedge at QR.  Excerpt complete with Harvey Kronberg's typical oddball emphasis.

There are three Texas Supreme Court incumbents facing challenges in the Republican Primary this election cycle- Chief Justice Nathan Hecht, Justice Jeff Brown and Justice Phil Johnson.

It is no secret that Houston mega-lawyer Mark Lanier is not a fan of the current court. What is noteworthy is that a look at the most recent Texas Ethics Commission reports of the three challengers to Hecht, Brown and Johnson shows that they have collected $61,100 in total. And 98% of that came from members of the Lanier firm. (Mark Lanier and 10 lawyers in his firm have contributed $60,000). He and his firm seem to be leading the charge. It remains to be seen if others will follow.

If the personal injury bar follows Lanier's lead this cycle, they will contribute handsomely to the campaigns of the three challengers. But so far, they are laying behind the log. And notably some are supporting the incumbents. In past campaigns, the trial lawyer contributions came primarily after the "30 Day Report", thus shielding them from public view until just a few days before the election. And the dollar amounts have been staggering.

More if you have a subscription.

-- Just so we're clear: the underling at MSNBC that got fired over a Tweet about the right-wing acting all indignant about a Super Bowl commercial (you know, the one Phil Griffin apologized to Reince Priebus for) just had the wrong Super Bowl commercial in mind.  You think Griffin will hire that person back?  Since they were correct about the right-wing reaction, that is?


Still way behind on events past and future.  I wanted to blog about all of the Keystone XL developments and #NoKXL rallies yesterday, and even about Louie Mueller Barbecue in town on Super Bowl Sunday (I went, it was great) and coming to Houston permanently soon, but there aren't enough hours in the day.  I'll get a round tuit eventually.

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Two adverse developments for HERO

First:

The Texas Supreme Court has ordered city officials to reword the ballot language for the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance, stating in a Wednesday ruling that the current language incorrectly calls for a vote on the repeal of the law, rather than the law itself.

"The City Council is directed to word the proposition such that voters will vote directly for or against the ordinance," the court ruled.

It's an enormous victory for semantics, and Houston attorney Andy Taylor, who's led the anti-anti-discrimination charge (how's that for proper wording?) states in a press release that "Once again, the highest court in this state has delivered a message to the Mayor to stop abusing her authority. It's time to stop the games that are wasting taxpayers' money." And if there's one thing we can all agree on, it's that a lawsuit over hair-splitting sentence structure is a judicious use of taxpayers' money.

That's bad enough, but then there's this:

Within the walls of Mt. Hebron Missionary Baptist church against the backdrop of a Houston Equal Rights Ordinance many consider morally offensive, mayoral candidate Ben Hall welcomed the wholehearted support of African American ministers representing dozens of congregations.

"An end has come to open warfare between the Mayor's office and the church. I invite you gladly, to have and assume your right position in the leadership of this great city," said Hall to members of the Baptist Ministers Association, representing more than 300 congregations.

The pastors say they're backing Hall because he backed them in the battle to allow the HERO ordinance be decided by the City's voters.

"When others ridiculed us. When no one thought we would stand for what was right in the eyesight of God, it was this man, this preacher, this candidate who stood with us and did not care if it cost him his candidacy," said Rev. Max Miller, President of the BMA.

This is a seriously hard couple of shots against tolerance in Houston.

As I feared, Hall is gathering both Republican extremists and black conservatives in a bid to make the runoff against the liberal front-runner.  Mark Jones at Rice finally gets one right.

"The HERO ruling was manna from heaven for Ben Hall and took a campaign that really didn't have a strong issue and was fighting for space and constituencies and gave it a ready-made issue to appeal to both Anglo social conservatives and to African American social conservatives," said Jones.

[...]

Jones says if history is a guide, about a third of the ballots cast in the November city election will be by black voters. He says a candidate who earns 18 to 20 percent could earn a runoff spot.

I'll revisit my prediction: if the election were held today, you'd have Ben Hall and Adrian Garcia in a December duel for mayor of Houston, a result similar to San Antonio's earlier this year.  Sylvester Turner, with all of his endorsements, money, and powerful friends could still get there, of course, and would certainly be the preferred option over Garcia.  But candidly it's difficult to see such a small number of voters as Houston normally turns out for muni elections sending two black men into the final round.

There are still openings for the most liberal and the most conservative Caucasians, Chris Bell and Bill King, but ground game and future developments have to favor them more than they have up to this point.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Redistricting endangers state representatives

One of them is Houston's Scott Hochberg.

Last week's census figures showed that Harris County grew dramatically during the past decade but not fast enough to warrant adding a new state legislative district. The county, in fact, likely will lose one.

As Texas lawmakers turn their attention to the complex and contentious task of redrawing their own districts, that loss will set in motion a game of musical chairs to determine who has a place among the 150 House seats. That number does not change despite a 20 percent increase in population statewide, which means the kaleidoscope of voters each lawmaker represents will shift. Harris County is expected to go from 25 to 24 state House seats.

Legislative districts, redrawn every 10 years in the wake of federal census results, must be roughly the same size, somewhere near 167,637 people per district.

[...]

In the House, Democrat Rep. Carol Alvarado's 145th District, with 132,730 people, is down 20.8 percent, as are districts represented by her inner-city cohorts, including state Rep. Scott Hochberg, a Democrat, whose District 137 fell to a population of 137,876, which is 17.8 percent below the mean. District 143, an inner-city district represented by Ana Hernandez, a Democrat, has a population of only 127,381, about 24 percent below the mean. ...

Legislative districts west of downtown gained population dramatically. State Rep. William Callegari, a Republican, represents 264,426 people in District 132, nearly 58 percent above the mean. With a population of 212,484, District 150, represented by Debbie Riddle, a Republican, is 26.8 percent above the mean. Incumbents will have "to start pushing and pulling in different directions" — to use Republican consultant Allen Blakemore's phrase - to equal out the districts.

"Scott Hochberg's gone," Blakemore said. "He's under, and he's a white Democrat."

That sentiment could be premature, said political scientist Mark Jones of Rice University.

"Hochberg is gone if you change the district by too much," he said. "He's well-known in the area he represents, but if he has to pick up population in an area where he's not all that well-known, he could be in trouble. He'll be fine if he keeps, maybe, 65 percent of his current district. He's more endangered if you create a district that's more Hispanic." ...

Jones suggested that Sarah Davis, a rookie Republican representing a central Houston district, could be in trouble. Davis' district is 12.2 percent below the mean.

"She's squeezed," Jones said, "because she's close to Democratic districts. Plus, her district is likely to swing back in 2012."

Hochberg, one of the best and brightest serving in the Texas House, has always managed to walk enough blocks and knock on enough doors in his district to get it done. But the GOP will target him and him alone in Harris County, because they don't want to make things any more difficult for their own people than they already are, and because the VRA makes targeting a Latina -- Alvarado or Hernandez Luna -- virtually off-limits.

Spread Sarah "Ding Dong" Davis with butter and jam no matter what the lines are in HD-134, because she is toast. We're taking that district back in '12.

In west Texas, Paul Burka identifies Jim Landtroop of Plainview as "most vulnerable player".

1. He’s a freshman.

2. He supported Paxton for speaker.

3. He cast one of the fifteen votes against Straus for speaker

4. He represents a part of the state that is hemorrhaging population.

5. He has nowhere to go to pick up extra people.

6. He’s a hard-right conservative

7. He has already been marginalized by his committee assignments (Agriculture & Livestock, Defense & Veterans’ Affairs), although Ag is important in his district.

Landtroop has one of the most oddly shaped districts. It is essentially a cross (.pdf), seven counties from north to south, five from east to west, with appendages on the east side. He is landlocked by savvy veteran members who play important roles in the House: Chisum on the north; Hardcastle, Darby, and Keffer on the east; Hilderbran on the south; and Craddick and Charles Perry on the west. Perry is a Landtroop clone: tea-party type, hard-right conservative, poor committee assignments, supported Paxton for speaker, voted against Straus. You could flip a coin and let the winner have the seat without affecting the House at all.

The factors that squeezed out Speaker Pete Laney six years ago hits Hale and surrounding Panhandle counties again. And read the comments there for some nostalgic give-and-take from the 2006 Democratic primary. The entreaties for Laney to run for lieutenant governor are almost poignant.

Note however that Warren Chisum, having announced his intention to run for the Texas Railroad Commission, may make Burka's speculation moot if the mapmakers absorb his district into a new one that meets the population threshold. Burka thinks that the district moves south toward Lubbock, but I'm inclined to believe that the new lines go north toward Amarillo.

The commenters at Burkablog's link point out that Donna Howard and Craig Eiland are also endangered Democrats, that a variety of GOP incumbents in Travis and Dallas Counties could get unseated in the musical chairs shuffle, and that east Texas will be down a seat, likely a Republican one. More on that from the Franklin County GOP, namely turncoat Chuck Hopson, who seems to have trouble constructing his sentences:

“Wayne Christian is over in House District 9, which is Nacogdoches, Shelby, St. Augustine, Sabine, Jasper — immediately to the right of Cherokee County — that district is 22,000 short. The district, Bryan Hughes, immediately above me, District 5, is 9,000 short. Lavender, which is up in Texarkana, is 21,000 short. Cain immediately next to him is 21,000 short. Phillips next to him is 13,000 short,” Hopson said. “Leo Berman in Tyler is the only person (whose district is above the qualifier), he has an excess of 2,500 people in Tyler because Tyler’s had a really good growth. But from Texarkana all the way down to Galveston, all those districts are short.”

Then again maybe it was the transcriber. Somebody really needs to learn English or just get of the country, don't you think?

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Harris County still looking blue, Texas not so much

Once again, Tom Gederberg via SD17 Democrats on Facebook.

Updated Harris County Early Voting and Mail Ballot Results for November 1

So far 626,627 people early voted and 86,456 people have turned in a mail ballot! Today's turnout was 72,580.

There is a lag in getting the data loaded into VAN. VAN currently has data on 576,983 early voters and on 80,820 mail voters. Assuming that people who have a 2016 DNC Dem Party Support v2 score of over 50% is a likely Democrat and those with a score below 50% is a likely Republican, here is how the voting looks in Harris County so far:

VAN Early Total: 576,983
Likely Democrat: 318,855 (55.26%)
Likely Republican: 258,128 (44.74%)

VAN Mail Total: 80,829
Likely Democrat: 44,635 (55.23%)
Likely Republican: 36,185 (44.77%)

EVIP this week in Harris County (early voting in person, more formally called EVPA, or Early Voting by Personal Appearance) is lagging last week's eye-popping numbers, but is still surging past 2012 and 2008.  In local media reax, Groogan at Fox swallows Mark Jones' spin and pimps for Team Red, while the Chron's article underscoring stronger Democratic turnout reveals that the EV numbers seem to show more of a partisan groundswell than they do new voters.

By both comparison and contrast, the state's fifteen largest counties show gains, but the red counties look to be voting a little heavier.  The most recent Texas poll reveals Trump ahead by 12, and above the 50% mark for the first time (click for a clearer pic, or go to the link).


So while the Donks still have bright prospects for downballot races locally, I would have to say to Democrats dreaming of turning Texas blue -- and especially to some of those laughably bad statewide judicials: wake up and smell the coffee.

Saturday, July 30, 2016

The Daily Jackass: Chris Hooks

The Texas Observer's political writer/Democratic gun-for-hire has been putting extra bitters in his cocktails while on duty in Philadelphia.

"Cranks", "dead-enders", "messianic" (in a description of Jill Stein and a hilarious comparison with Bob Bavakian) is nothing more than excessive spleen-venting from the most Green-hostile of Democrats sixty days ahead of the first scheduled presidential debate.

Dude.  I know it was hot and wet in the City of Brotherly Love (scroll down to 'Phooey, Philly') but maybe you should wait until the Greens start to actually register a little in the polling before you twist your knickers that tight.

Oh.  Well.  Maybe now is a good time to shit yourself.


With the counterpoint, Dr. Mark Jones of Rice University's Baker Institute has an exceptionally respectful, direct, and thorough advance of next week's presidential nominating convention here in H-Town.  Bold emphasis is mine.

Last week, national attention was focused on Cleveland and the Republican Party’s National Convention. This week, national attention is focused on Philadelphia, where the Democratic Party’s National Convention is being held. Houstonians should not feel entirely left out, however, since Houston will host the Green Party National Convention next week (August 4-7) at the University of Houston campus.

The main order of business at the Green Party Convention will be to nominate the party’s presidential candidate, Dr. Jill Stein. In doing so, the party will symbolically launch its national campaign, which includes not only Stein’s presidential bid but hundreds of other campaigns throughout the country for offices ranging from U.S. senator to state representative to county commissioner.

At present, Stein has formally qualified to appear on the ballot in 23 states (including the District of Columbia) and is expected to qualify in between 20 and 25 additional states before filing closes in early September. In addition to retaining the support of individuals who voted for her during the 2012 presidential election, Stein and her fellow Greens hope to capture the votes of Bernie Sanders’ supporters and others who want to cast a protest vote against Hillary Clinton, signal to the Democratic Party that it needs to move to the left, or who believe that the future of the country’s progressive movement does not lie within the Democratic Party but rather via the creation of robust alternatives to what they consider to be a two-party duopoly.

Stein’s prospects for victory are nonexistent. However, an improved performance by Stein would be positive for the Green Party in two principal ways. First, it would demonstrate the existence of popular support for the Green Party and its type of progressive agenda while simultaneously improving the party’s name recognition and brand among the general public.  Second, in a host of states, a good showing by Stein could represent the difference between guaranteed access to the ballot in 2018 and (in some cases) 2020 and either spending scarce resources on costly signature gathering campaigns to obtain ballot access or not being able to run candidates for public office.

Texas is one of the states where an improved Stein performance could be invaluable to the Green Party in regard to ballot access. In recent election cycles, Texas Democrats did not run a complete statewide slate of candidates, and the Green Party was able to maintain its ballot status by surpassing the required 5 percent vote threshold in the contests lacking a Democratic candidate. In 2016, however, Texas Democrats are fielding candidates for every statewide office, and unless a statewide Green Party candidate wins at least 5 percent of the vote in one of the eight statewide races, the party would need to undertake a very difficult ballot access campaign in 2018. To qualify for ballot access in two years, the Green Party of Texas would have to obtain 47,183 valid signatures in less than three months from registered voters who did not vote in the 2018 Democratic or Republican primaries. Since many signatures end up being invalidated, the Greens would need to gather close to a 100,000 signatures to safely cross this threshold and qualify for ballot access, a Herculean task for a party with very limited resources.

This year, in addition to Stein, the Green Party is fielding six candidates for statewide office in Texas (one for railroad commissioner, three for the Supreme Court and two for the Court of Criminal Appeals), almost 20 congressional candidates and around two dozen candidates for other offices ranging from state representative to sheriff to county commissioner. If Stein or one of her fellow Greens does not win at least 5 percent of the statewide vote on Nov. 8, this year could mark the last year for some time that Texas voters are provided with so many options to “vote Green.”

That covers every single base.  Nothing to quibble with and nothing to add.

Jackass on deck: Misandry Angie (who probably isn't capable of receiving whatever I blog as anything but 'mansplaining', but I'll offer it anyway).

Monday, December 16, 2019

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is grateful for a pause in political activity so it can enjoy the holidays.  (Which doesn't include impeachment proceedings and presidential debates ...)


TXElects summarizes the municipal results from Houston, El Paso, and a SCOTX decision regarding last year's election in Mission.

Mayor Sylvester Turner and the three at-large council incumbents won their runoff races. Turner defeated Tony Buzbee, 57%-43%, and at-large council members Mike Knox (56%), Michael Kubosh (61%) and David Robinson (59%) easily turned away their challengers. As of our midnight (12/14) press time, the Dist. H race between incumbent Karla Cisneros and Isabel Longoria was too close to call. Cisneros led Longoria by 25 votes with 18 voting centers yet to report, 50.1%-49.9%.

[Update from the Houston Chronicle: District H contender Longoria yet to concede in Houston council race won by 12 votes]

Leticia Plummer (53%) and Sallie Alcorn (53%) won the open at-large seats, and the other open seats were won by Amy Peck (70%), Abbie Kamin (59%), Carolyn Evans-Shabazz (62%), Tiffany Thomas (56%) and Edward Pollard (58%).

The final vote percentages could shift by a point as the final votes are counted.

Following tonight’s results, the Houston council will not have an Asian-American member for the first time since 1993, according to Rice University’s Mark Jones. He also noted that the incoming council will have just one (if Cisneros wins) or two (if Longoria wins) Hispanic/Latino members despite the population being 45% Hispanic/Latino.

[PDiddie adds: Jones also reached to find a 'symbolic victory' for Buzbee.]

The District B runoff remains on hold. Judge Susan Brown (last) Wednesday said she would wait for the Texas Supreme Court to rule on a related case before proceeding. Third-place finisher Renee Jefferson-Smith has filed two lawsuits challenging the eligibility of Cynthia Bailey -- who finished second behind Tarsha Jackson -- over Bailey’s 2007 felony theft conviction. The delay likely means that the B runoff will not be held January 28, (when) it would coincide with the HD148 special runoff election.

El Paso: Former council member Cassandra Hernandez, who was deemed to have automatically resigned when a Facebook page for a possible mayoral campaign went live, has been returned to the council. Hernandez defeated Will Veliz, 53%-47%. In the D6 special election, voters sent Claudia Lizette Rodriguez (32%) and Debbie Torres (28%) to a runoff.

Mission: The Texas Supreme Court declined to review the results of 2018 mayoral runoff that was won by Armando O’Caña over incumbent Beto Salinas, who contested the result. A trial court sided with Salinas, finding that it was impossible to determine the outcome of the runoff due to voter fraud. The 13th Court of Appeals reversed that decision after determining that the evidence did not support a sufficient number of illegal votes to overturn the election results.

Kuff is still looking at 2020 Democratic filings for Congress and state offices.  The Dallas News gathered up all the names of the people who want to help run Texas next year in their post-filing deadline report.  John Coby at Bay Area Houston saluted Briscoe Cain's primary opponent.

SocraticGadfly offers a twofer related to world affairs, first saying goodbye to Jeremy Corbyn then calling out Wikipedia creator Jimmy Wales for his sliming of Corbyn and other general rot.  Paradise in Hell fears we are in the Clown Era of world leadership.

The shooting death of an HPD LEO reopened the gun debate nationally.

Last (week's) killing of Houston police Sgt. Christopher Brewster prompted Police Chief Art Acevedo to call out U.S. Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz of Texas for their part in blocking legislation that would ban sales of guns to dating partners convicted of domestic abuse or subject to restraining orders for abuse. Such a ban exists for abusers of family members, but not for boyfriends and girlfriends.


“I don’t want to see their little, smug faces about how much they care about law enforcement when I’m burying a sergeant because they don’t want to piss off the NRA,” Acevedo said. "Make up your minds. Whose side are you on? Gun makers, the gun lobby or the children that are getting gunned down in this country every single day?”

Acevedo's courage in calling out our corrupt politicians notwithstanding, this Wrangle has more than the usual number of accounts of cops behaving badly.

A (Bexar County) sheriff’s deputy has been arrested for performing unlawful strip searches of at least six women in an 11-day period, authorities said.

Texas prison officials violated a judge’s order to provide inmates with air conditioning, and that means, among other things, that the prisoners' lawyers get to investigate.


The Trump Administration knew that separating migrant children from their families would be harmful -- duh -- but they ramped up the practice anyway.

“Not only was it inhumane,” said Robert Carey, a Refugee Resettlement director in the Obama administration, “it was extraordinarily poorly managed.”

And the DPS is getting more money to keep us all under its watchful eye in the sky.


Though the surveillance centers provide a means of coordination during times of crisis like Hurricane Harvey, (Dallas News 'Watchdog' columnist Dave) Lieber says they operate full time, and are able to gather and share information from a variety of sources.

Lieber gives the example of a tourist visiting the Alamo, taking pictures and acting suspiciously. He says a system called TrapWire can take pictures of the tourist and transmit those images back to a fusion center.

“They could use facial recognition software, for example, to find out who you are,” he says “(whether) you’re there just taking pictures as a tourist, or if you’re taking pictures because you have some kind of nefarious act you want to commit ...”

Lieber says his theory is that rather than create gun restrictions, the state is using the fusion centers’ surveillance capabilities to keep an eye on places and people who might be a threat.

Lieber says there has been little focus on safeguarding Texans’ privacy.

A mercury spill occurred along Houston's busy west Beltway 8 yesterday, scrambling hazmat units.

Officials said the risk to the public is "extremely low" after mercury spilled Sunday afternoon in west Houston.

According to officials, a "small amount" of the chemical spilled around 1 p.m. Sunday at a Walmart, a Sonic and a Shell station across from Sonic near the intersection of Beltway 8 and Westview Drive. Houston Fire Chief Sam Pena said the amount of mercury at each location is less than a pint. Houston fire department officials initially reported more than 60,000 gallons of mercury spilled, but later corrected the amount. [...] 30 to 60 people were processed for decontamination, including one pregnant woman who was taken to the hospital as a precaution.

In other climate news, Rice University has launched a research initiative called Carbon Hub, aiming to reduce carbon emissions by using ... wait for it ... oil and natural gas to create clean energy and materials.  The work has been funded intially by a $10 million grant from ... wait for it ... Shell Oil.

And Downwinders at Risk welcomes its new board members.

In a round-up of the kind we can expect more of here at year's end, Steve Young at the Dallas Observer has a collection of the funniest unforced social media errors by Texas officials.  I'll add Greg Abbott's "Get a Rope" joke to his list.


Speaking of bad jokes, Dan Solomon at Texas Monthly informs us that Alex Jones has always known exactly what he is doing.

Save Buffalo Bayou links to Mother Jones, telling us we should save a little room in our hearts for the lowly opossum, heroes of the southeast Texas animal kingdom.

Not a picture of Alex Jones (or Tony Buzbee)


The Alliance wishes Mr. and Mrs. Juanita Jean of the World's Most Dangerous Beauty Salon a speedy recovery after they were rear-ended in Austin.

And the TPA also hopes Tony Buzbee enjoys a nice long vacation far, far away.

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Giving Tuesday Wrangle


No boycotts and no strikes today.  Give what you can to those who ask, and to those who need help but are too shy to ask.  It's better than involuntarily donating to corporations.


More of the latest state politics.


JoJo has been one of my favorites for a very long time.  She really gets it, and has the scars from jackasses like Bill White and many other shitlibs to prove it.  All power to her.


Does the Pope shit in the woods?  Of course he does.  I'm not interested in local school board elections, but if that's your jam, now is the time to make your vote, voice, and objections loud to the Q-Crew schoolhouse bullies working hard to Dominionize your kids and grandkids.


I post Dr. Jones' tweets here on the occasions when he manages to keep his red partisanship out of his analysis.  Which is about half the time he tweets.  When he fails in that he embarrasses himself, as Braddock shows here.

Making the effort to challenge one's thinking -- to break out of the silo, so to speak -- requires rigorous self-inspection.  I appreciate when others do the work and create the breakthroughs.  Here's an example of that not happening.


The problem here is the word 'siphon'.

As I have blogged many times in the past, votes are not zero sum.  Votes are earned.  The confusion arises due to Gohmert's intention for his bid.  It was the same as Matt Krause's before he dropped out: capitalize on the scandals of Ken Paxton by offering oneself as the Qonservative alternative to Pee Bush and Eva Guzman.  (The sticky point is obviously trying to understand whatever passes for logic in the TXGOP primary voter's mind in choosing between Paxton and Gohmert.)  Paxton would make the runoff easily -- polling suggests without a runoff -- if it weren't for Gohmert now in.  Bush's chances improve as a runoff entrant.  So if I'm laying odds today, about 90 days from the spring election date, I'm favoring K-Pax and Baby Bush as the top two.  But a lot is going to happen between now and then, not the least of which is the possibility that Tejano Republicans carry more clout than anybody has been able to measure so far.


Yes, Beto needs their counterparts to save him and the rest of Team Donkey down the ballot.  So the RGV is ground zero for March and November.  I don't think it's going to happen for him, but stranger things have.


Still pisses me off that Ms. Crockett Bigfooted into this primary and has squashed Jessica Mason, the actual progressive.  I don't really see the suddenly-presumptive nominee as anything more than another all-talk no-action Squad member.  In similar fashion, Donna Imam beat Julie Oliver to the punch, jumping in to face Lloyd Doggett in the TX-37 primary.


Moving on to the criminal and social justice links.


Even as Abbott has again mobilized Texas Guard troops to the southern border, polls show support for his immigration moves ticking upwards.


There's your cray-cray read of the day.  I'm heading on to the climate news.


The New Braunfels Herald-Zeitung reports that opponents to a new quarry to be dug over the Edwards Aquifer recharge zone are fighting the company, Vulcan Construction Materials, in court and in the community.


Closing today with some holiday lights and music options.

Thursday, January 29, 2015

Scattershooting the political consultants' scorecard

My blog brothers have done the heavy lifting.

-- Via Stace, here's your program.  This is the most important information Houston voters need to know about who might next run the city: who's whispering in the candidate's ear?   Who's telling them to zig instead of zag?  I've heard these people brag about the size of their Rolodexes, declare that's what you're buying when you pay them $10K a month.  What a country, eh?

Just like the Karl Roves and Dave Carneys, these behind-the-scenes players have the most influence.  Take note of who's advising whom, in a paid or unpaid capacity.

With ten candidates in the race for mayor, and a "viable" campaign needing to raise $2 million in order to get 15% of the vote just to make the runoff, ask yourself again why we need so much money sloshing around in our politics.

At those prices, we're not getting anything worth owning.

Update: The Baker Institute says it will take something between 21-23% of less than 200K votes (or about 40,000) for a single mayoral candidate -- two of Turner, Bell, Garcia, Costello, King, or Pennington left to right on your spectrum -- to make the runoff.  Consequently, every campaign will target its own base vote very narrowly, so as not to encourage other bases to show up at the polls.  In other words, low turnout is the winner's friend; suppress everybody's vote but yours.  I'd love to hear how some of those tactics will be executed.  Since Bob Stein and not Mark Jones authored that post, I can at least express a bit more confidence in its various premises.  There's some other data points worth sifting through there for all you inside baseballers.  I'll unpack more of that in my next blog post.

-- Also via Stace, A-Drain Garcia has issued either a caution or an exhortation, depending on whether he's ultimately in or out.


"The community will have to vote in historic numbers".  That's the understatement of the year.

Do you think it makes a Garcia bid more likely or less?  He may already be losing the consultants' race, after all.  I have to say 'less' just on its face, but Stace's response to my question there is a point well taken.  I'm also not listening to the radio shows, can't parse inflection or word usage or read between the lines in Spanish as well as I would like.  So we wait.

-- Charles has the take on state Sen. Don Huffines' bill that essentially nullifies any city ordinance if the state legislature doesn't approve... whether a state law is in place or not.  So a municipality would be prohibited from passing a law banning fracking, or protecting the civil rights of people born LGBT -- or establishing speed limits or fireworks restrictions or noise ordinances or eliminating plastic bags at the supermarket -- if Austin says 'no' or even thinks 'no'.  This from the party that wants judges to defy federal law when marriage equality is finally recognized.  (Roy Moore is just another throwback to the '60's and George Wallace, in case you haven't seen Selma yet.)

The hypocrisy is strong with this one.  And I don't mean just Huffines, either.

-- Obama's attorney general-designate, Loretta Lynch, is a prohibitionist when it comes to weed.  German Lopez at Vox says she's got the "pot is worse than booze" part wrong, and has some data that supports that.

Just for the record, I personally don't care to use it, legal or not.  With my conditions, I only have a couple of drinks a month, and I haven't roasted any herb in over two decades.  (Made me paranoid; was easy to quit.)  But the national trend toward decriminalization/legalization has moved almost as quickly as the marriage equality issue, two remarkable social upheavals that tend to terrify the most extreme of Christian conservatives.

I don't know and wouldn't think that Loretta Lynch is one of those.  But these notions about reefer madness are deeply embedded in the minds of people who prosecute for a living, which suggests it's going to take the next generation to soften the federal resolve in this matter.  And that's unfortunate.  I would have thought that she had greater insight into the legal scourge of these harsh and vindictive drug penalties and the devastating effect they have had on her generation of black men and women.  If she hasn't figured it out by now, she probably isn't going to.

Maybe she can be better on the police abuse cases that need to be addressed; she already has some history in that regard.  She's going to have a short time to make her mark beyond the 'first African American woman' label.

-- Like Sheriff Garcia, Scott Walker didn't finish college either.  I'm not voting for anybody who can't manage that.  This isn't the century where a farmer can pull himself up by his bootstraps and his common sense, move into the city, get a good job with union benefits and retire after forty years with a nice pension.

Oh sure, your geeky kid might quit college when he comes up with an app that makes him a trillionaire.  I just don't want him to run for president, or mayor, or purchase any of the people who do.  If you can't earn a baccalaureate degree and you want to be on the government payroll, then you can read meters or mow a park (I'd rather them not be given a gun and a badge either, but that's another problem).  It's a different world and we don't need under-educated people in charge at any level.  No sheepskin is a dealbreaker for me.

If someone can leverage that perceived effrontery to motivate the vote, more power to them.  Anything that works in that regard would not be an unwelcome development... even if they voted en masse for the least-educated person on their ballot.

At least we'd have some successful voter turnout model to build on.

Thursday, June 09, 2011

Texas GOP quarreling over "sanctuary cities"

I have blogged previously about the ridiculousness of Mark Jones' premise that the defeat of "sanctuary cities" legislation in the regular session was a 'strategic victory' for Rick Perry. It seems that there are some prominent Republicans who are trying desperately to validate Jones' argument. Read this from Julian Aguilar at the Texas Tribune:

A series of email exchanges between Republican Party boosters and the office of Gov. Rick Perry indicate some conservatives believe passing the contentious “sanctuary cities” bill may cripple efforts to recruit more Hispanics to their ranks.

The correspondence signals a potential rift between Perry, who appears intent on addressing immigration issues during the current special session, and some of the party’s backers as rumors surrounding a possible Perry presidential run continue to swirl.

“At the end of the day you should understand that Hispanic voters will not support a party that wants to deport their mother and father,” Norman Adams, the co-founder of Texans for Sensible Immigration Policy and a member of Texas GOP Vote, a conservative website, wrote to Ray Sullivan, Perry’s chief of staff. The messages are part of an email exchange that began June 2 and were obtained by the Tribune.

Dr. Steve Hotze, the chairman of Conservative Republicans of Texas, is included in the exchanges and urges Perry and Sullivan to reconsider. Hotze contributed at least $60,000 personally and at least $640,000 via his PAC to GOP House and Senate candidates in the last election cycle.

“It seems that we should focus on recruiting Hispanics to the Republican ranks," he wrote. "It appears this bill might accomplish just the opposite.”

Clicking on Dr. Hotze's name above will carry you to his immigration video, where he makes the case against harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric by the GOP. You should go and watch it. Here's a brief excerpt:

We cannot turn our back on immigrants and their families with anti-immigration rhetoric and legislation. If we do so, then we're not just sending the wrong message to the Hispanic community, but we're also denying our own conservative values and beliefs.

It's difficult to believe that Hotze is a voice of reasonable moderation in this regard. More from Aguilar at the Trib ...

“When it comes to the Sanctuary City bill, we believe you should thank God for the opposition from our police chiefs and sheriffs across the state. Its failure to pass was a blessing for you and for Texas Republicans,” Adams wrote Perry on June 2, before the governor added the legislation to the call. Speculation that Perry would add the item had already gained momentum by then, however, and it is also the day state Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, filed SB9, which includes the legislation.

“The irony of this whole thing is that the governor had a winning ticket if he wants to run for president" with the success of the regular session, Adams said today in an interview. “He avoided Arizona-style legislation, which has caused nothing but an economic disaster [there], in his own state.”

The problem with that, of course, is that no single issue -- not the state budget cuts, not abortion, nothing -- incenses the Texas TeaBagging base like non-citizen immigrants. You don't have to listen for very long to hear it: Ill Eagles are responsible for everything that is wrong in the world: the budget shortfall, exploding Medicaid expenditures, overcrowded school classrooms, global warming, the Astros' losing season, you name it. And any public forum that includes Texas conservatives commenting on current events quickly reveals this weird alternate reality where only mass deportation of all undocumented people will solve every single problem facing the Great State.

It is an unrelenting, unyielding caterwaul.

Dr. Hotze speaks an inconvenient truth for Texas Republicans, but as an electorate they are no more likely to heed his warning than they were to split their tickets in 2010. They will only support candidates that demand the borders sealed by the federal government as well as deportation. Not so much penalties for employers who hire the undocumented, mind you; that goes against the governor's "Texas Miracle" economy (as well as the wishes of his megadonors Bob Perry and Bo Pilgrim).

Anyway, that's Rick Perry's stated strategy, and he's sticking to it. Today. Keep in mind that these are also the people telling us he's not running for president.

Sullivan said today that Perry will not get distracted from what he views as political theater.

“What Dr. Hotze and Mr. Adams talk about is politics. We are talking about public safety and policy,” he said. “We are not looking at this through a political lens. This is ‘How do we make Texas streets and neighborhoods and individuals safer?’”

He also said the issue would not damage the party’s efforts to recruit Hispanics.

“There is a broad agreement throughout the state, regardless of geography and political persuasion, that law enforcement should be encouraged to do their jobs to the best of their abilities,” he said. He added that a lot of the criminal activity the bill seeks to address occurs in “urban centers and minority communities,” and pointed out that every Hispanic Republican in the Texas House supports the sanctuary cities legislation.

Sullivan also dismissed Adams’ emails that insist a majority of law enforcement officers are opposed to the bill.

“We have been hearing for well over a year from police officers and police associations who have seen their colleagues killed by individuals in the country illegally,” he said.

My first observation here is that Aguilar has an extraordinary and unusual amount of back-channel access here: the e-mails, the lengthy response from the governor's spokesperson. That's an awful lot of on-the-record commentary. If GOP legislators actually don't want to pass this bill they will have an extremely difficult path to walk to do so; for one thing they are much more vulnerable to backlash in 2012 from the base than is Perry.

Paul Burka has previously documented Rick Perry's flip-flop on sanctuary cities -- he was for them before he was against them -- as well as the odd sight of Republican legislators celebrating after the legislation's demise in the regular session.

How is the GOP going to defeat sanctuary cities again in the special, thus preserving the 'strategic victory' for Perry and saving the long-term future of the RPT, mollifying Hotze and Adams but enraging the base? Or does Perry just intend to go for the short-term political gain, exerting his will to get the bill okayed and damn the long-term consequences?

It looks to me like he's betting on the latter, and so am I. But I cannot say I will be surprised if the bill dies another strange procedural death at some point, enabling every Republican except the Teas to breathe a sigh of relief.

How do Iowa Republican primary voters poll on illegal immigration? That might tell us a lot about whatever hidden agenda the governor is operating from in this regard.

Update: Related reading ...

Hotze: Hispanic Christians Will Be "Our Natural Allies Against the Democrats and Muslims" (Right Wing Watch)

Should Perry be thankful for unanswered prayer? (Lisa Falkenberg, Houston Chronicle)

Monday, July 15, 2013

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance joins the family of Trayvon Martin in being "saddened" by the verdict in the George Zimmerman trial as it brings you this week's roundup.


Off the Kuff gives some advice on what to do now that the anti-abortion bill has passed.

Horwitz at Texpatriate explains why he is a Democrat.

WCNews at Eye on Williamson says the dream that once made America great has become a nightmare for too many: We must “make morality possible again”.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme can hardly wait to see the results of the republican War on Women in 2014. Some Blue Dogs like Eddie Lucio Jr. are already feeling a pinch.

Dr. Mark Jones of Rice University tried to take down Wendy Davis' political prospects, and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs had to take down Jones. Conservatives drinking "librul" whine still smell like vinegar.

At TexasKaos, lightseeker foresees the destruction of Texas Republican Party. Check it out: Texas Republicans - The Coming Crackup?

==================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Juanita eulogizes Bev Carter, Fort Bend political journalist and rabble-rouser.

Lone Star Ma deplores the gutting of the Voting Rights Act.

Jason Stanford has a personal story about why the omnibus anti-abortion bill is such a miscarriage of justice.

Equality Texas reports from the Texas GSA Network Activist Camp.

Greg Wythe shreds a recent story that claims Sen. Wendy Davis is "too liberal" to win in Texas.

Texas Vox looks at a series of new studies that focus on the destructive effects of pollution.

The Texas Green Report explains why you should care about the cost of tap water.

Concerned Citizens reminds us once again that elections have consequences.

BOR analyzes the litigation that is likely to arise from the passage of the omnibus anti-abortion bill.

Thursday, January 13, 2022

Thursday Morning Wrangle from Far Left Texas, Part 1: COVID, primary skirmishes


Opening today with the latest on the pandemic.


If you want to backtrack to about a week ago ...


Very bad and getting worse.  I hope you're not one of those "putting it in Gawd's hands", but if you are, have the ambulance take you to church instead of the hospital, because there are no beds in ICUs.


As the DMN's Bob Garrett noted, Canon had been instrumental in getting state Rep. Tony Tinderholt elected, and was a background player in former Cong. Joe Barton's sexting scandal.

That might be my segue to the politics news.


The tweet's teaser is lazy and lame, but the story is lively.  Here:

"Beto O'Rourke is dangerous to the communities and to the safety of the public and the people of this state and he is not fitting to serve as governor," Abbott said.

The governor accused O'Rourke of supporting defund the police movements and attacking him for his position on bail reform.

"This is Governor Abbott lying about me," O'Rourke said. "I do not want to defund the police. I want to make sure law enforcement have the resources they need to solve and investigate violent crimes."

[...]

"As long as there's not a freeze between now until the end of March, Abbott should be in good shape," (Rice political scientist Dr. Mark) Jones said.

Dr. Jones can be really good at political analysis when he wants to be.


That's a Republican news source for those of you unfamiliar, so if you click on the link for the schadenfreude, be sure and scrape the cookies off your browser immediately after.


Drag a dollar bill past the Governor's Mansion and count on a whore in a wheelchair coming after you.


It's not politics.


That's enough Hell on Wheels for one post.


Senator Cornhole wants to be the next Majority Leader, if indeed Trump's play to blow out Moscow Mitch succeeds.  He'll have to contend with South Dakota's John Thune for the title, who looked as if he was ready to leave the Senate for a minute there.


I'll take that as my segue to post a few updates about Texas Democrats.


This is both awkward and unfortunate for BeckleyWu in particular is a committed shitlib -- he's still tweeting Hillary Clinton -- but Howard and Martinez are a letdown personally.

I'm also disillusioned by Jessica Cisneros.


I don't know whether Benavides is as, or less or more progressive than Cisneros.  This establishment centrist tweeted a smear against Jessica for the move, so there's that.


I'm Green, but Suh, Zapata, Reynosa, and Israel are Democrats I could vote for if I lived in their jurisdictions (and if I were voting in March).  I'm not so antagonistic as some #DemExiteers to those who seek to reform the Donkey Party from within.  I'm over that; maybe they will get there too.

More in the next.