Sunday, December 15, 2019

Sunday Funnies












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Wednesday, December 11, 2019

To 2020 and beyond (and back again)

The March 2020 primary ballots are set, barring a couple of past-the-post changes.  There will be a Green slate of statewides and more, eventually.  Kuffy's handling the deep Donkey dive and Stacey's endorsing his friends as usual, so I'll focus on the fun.  We have one more election here in H-Town to conclude this year, and here's the relevant data point on early turnout.

Early voting in Houston’s runoff elections ended Tuesday with 115,204 ballots cast in Harris County, producing a higher turnout than the first round despite two fewer days to visit the polls.

Keir Murray points out that the H- Town electorate is, demographically if not almost precisely, the same good citizens who voted last month (visit the Tweet thread for the comparison).


It's remarkable how closely this matches this morning's fresh poll.  And as we know, these/those folks nearly put Mayor Sly back in without this pesky runoff, gave the purplish District C two Democrats to choose from (see below), and will -- hopefully -- sweep out the Kubosh/Dolcefino/Dick conservo-trash from Council's At Large seats.

I'm not going to spend my holiday Saturday evening refreshing harrisvotes.com for late-arriving election returns, and I may not even Tweet much about them depending on the quantity of alcohol imbibed.  Likewise I encourage you to go forth and make merry this weekend, and check your favorite source for the final results on Sunday morning.

Onward to the new decade.

There will be amusing developments on the right, and far right, and extremely far right (and fascist right and OMG GOP WTF right) in this snapshot, as I bounce around from city council to the statehouse, Congressional, county commissioner, and time-travel to the past and then back to the present day.  So if this post reads disjointedly ... well, strap in and enjoy the ride.

Update: For the record, I posted here in advance of Hooks, so if anybody took inspiration from somewhere, it was him from me.


It is my belief that the further starboard the conservatives move, so go the Donks in trying to appeal to the so-called centrists, which at this point are essentially Republicans who tolerate gays and abortion.  I'm so old I can remember the phrase "I'm a social liberal and a fiscal conservative".  The GOP-ers who allegedly gave a large, steaming shit about federal government deficit spending, i.e. the Tea Party, seem to have gone extinct.

Now you might prefer to call these folks 'ticket-splitters', because what they believe and who they vote for may not be in perfect alignment.  Here's some evidence.


Hillary Republicans in west Houston just couldn't stretch to Jenifer Rene Pool four years ago.  Likewise in 2018 for Beto/Dan Crenshaw voters.  (Crenshaw has drawn a better D challenger than 2018's inept Todd Litton, but EyePatch's heavy national following thanks to his SNL appearance makes him a more formidable obstacle.)  With respect to Harris County Precinct 3, and evolving electorate aside, it may be an easier flip if next spring's primaries give us a fall match between, say, Brenda Stardig and Kristi Thibault or Morris Overstreet.  We'll wait and see.

The African American dynamic in the Democratic primary should prove captivating.

-- Jerry Davis v. Harold Dutton (HD-142)
-- Jolanda Jones v. Ann Bennett (Harris County Tax Assessor/Collector)
-- Ashton Woods v. Shawn Thierry (HD-146)

It isn't quite accurate to describe these races as 'progressive challengers to (slightly more) conservative incumbents'.  Of the three, Dutton is the most endangered.


Manny Fernandez for the New York Times profiled Dutton and his quandary.  <<-- This is the best read in this post, particularly for those who have missed the controversy.

I made no recommendations on whom to vote for in HISD races in 2019 because of the state's imminent takeover.  I don't have children or grandchildren in the school system; my expectation for these representatives of the public trust is that their decision-making, such as spending taxpayer money, won't be crooked or stupid.  That very low bar has rarely been cleared.  So I really have no idea as to whether Greg Abbott's appointees will do any better, but despite our governor's own long-standing reputation for rock-bottom ethical conduct, it seems difficult to project that he/they might do worse.  Some of us understand that Abbott is dippin' in the koolaid that he doesn't know the flavor, and it's a crine-ass shame that he gets the chance to do so.  HISD is an uber-clusterf, and Dutton is likely to be the fall guy for it.  And probably not the last one.

I got a lot more but let me stop with two HTX city council runoff races that get decided this Saturday.  First, from nonsequiteuse.  She mad again, y'all.


I get it, Andrea, but I just see it more as a distinction without much of a difference than you.  And I actually prefer Abbie Kamin's position on guns more than I do Shelley Kennedy's.  It's not cool that Kennedy called Kamin's stance "leftist" and "wants to take away" guns, for sure.  And donating to Bill King smells bad too, although there are a lot of voters who think Sylvester Turner is nothing but the lesser of two evils *raises hand*.

This contest has the Democratic establishment and progressive organizations split all over, with Kennedy claiming, as nonseq has noted, a good bit of conservative support.  Kennedy got my recommendation to District C's voters due to her closer-to-the-people grassroots effort, including some activist Democrats I respect.  That's compared with Kamin's large fundraising apparatus and establishment backing, something I find myself increasingly leery of.  I don't see any losers here; Kamin will make a fine CM if she prevails.

And if hindsight from four years in the future reveals I made the wrong call here, then I probably made a bigger mistake endorsing Edward Pollard over Sandra Rodriguez, based on his bragging about being a conservative Democrat.  I hate that shit.

Pollard pushes a centrist message -- “That pothole could care less whether you’re a Democrat or Republican” -- and touts endorsements from the Houston Police Officers Union, business groups like the Houston Realty Breakfast Coalition and industry groups representing city contractors, engineers and Realtors.

[...]

Rodriguez stresses the need to engage new immigrants and improve the district’s poor civic engagement, and is backed by SEIU Texas and other labor groups, the Texas Organizing Project, the Houston GLBT Political Caucus, and a host of Democratic politicians at the federal, state and local level.

“I just want to do the work. I’ve been doing the work for 20 years, I enjoy what I do, and if this will help me push policies and move our district forward in Southwest Houston, to change the image -- because you hear Sharpstown, Gulfton, Westwood, you think crime, you think prostitution, all the negativity -- if this will help me serve the district, then I’ll run. That was the ultimate decision-maker.”
 
She's exactly the kind of candidate I like, and Pollard, as it turns out, is not.  Let this be a lesson to me that more due diligence is necessary over the course of the next 90 or so days.  If you still can in District J, vote for Ms. Rodriguez.  Mea maxima culpa.

And do vote, please.  There is evidence it does your body good.
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Monday, December 09, 2019

The Weekly Filing Deadline Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is watching the 2020 spring ballot filings on today's deadline, as well as the turnout and trends in the ongoing Houston city and educational runoff elections' early voting period (Election Day is Saturday).


There's also the sixth Dem presidential debate happening in nine days, so it's a busy time for those of us who are political junkies.


Here's the round-up of the best blog posts, Tweets, and lefty news about and around Texas, our Texas from last week.  First, TXElects.

(Today) is the deadline for candidates to file for a spot on the March 3 primary ballot as a Democrat or Republican, or to be eligible to receive the nomination of the Green or Libertarian Parties at their conventions. It is also the deadline for candidates to file to run under the banner of a political party not currently having ballot access.

It will take at more than a week to determine with certainty all of the candidates who filed and were certified to be on the ballot. County parties have until December 17 to electronically submit their candidate rosters to the Secretary of State, and state parties have a December 18 deadline. Candidates seeking to have their names removed from the ballot must withdraw by Tuesday.

There are still ways to reach the ballot if a candidate fails to file by the close of business Monday. There may be chances for partisan candidates to file past the December 9 deadline in specific cases of vacancies or the withdrawal of the lone candidate. Independent candidates must file declarations of intent to run by December 9. Write-in candidates must file their declarations of candidacy by August 17, 2020.

Noted by Ballot Access News, the state has appealed the ruling it lost in Dikeman v. Hughs.  The law at issue compels minor party candidates to pay a fee to run for office; it was struck down by a lower court a week ago.  And in filing developments ...


Progress Texas also has a list of candidates who've placed their names on the March 2020 Democratic primary ballot.  Kuff looked at the initial Congressional race ratings in Texas.  Howie Klein at Down With Tyranny profiled TX-25 hopeful Heidi Sloan.  And Jeremy Wallace at the HouChron examined the race to replace retiring Cong. Pete Olson in TX-22, with twelve Republicans aiming to be the nominee.  (In 2018, Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni almost knocked off Olson.  Kulkarni is running again, along with Pearland city council member Derrick Reed, and possibly one other Democrat filing later today.)  The statehouse district in the same Fort Bend County area just lost its Republican representative due to his unforced racial error, underscoring the shifting political sands in the nation's most ethnically diverse region.

PDiddie at Brains and Eggs had his regular weekly update on the Democrats running for the White House.  Mike Bloomberg made an appearance at the Texas Dems' quarterly meeting on Saturday.


Texas Monthly will be doing a regular political roundup.


SocraticGadfly collected all the huzzahs and handsprings for the Texas Tribune turning 10, and offers up a pretty contrarian take.

Meredith Lawrence of the Dallas Observer reports on the sad state of affairs with refugee asylum.



Robert Rivard at his self-titled Report urges the University of Incarnate Word to settle the Cameron Redus wrongful death case.

And here's some environmental developments.



Axios reports that the rural healthcare crisis is costing lives, a story the Texas Observer has recently been covering extensively.


Closing this Wrangle with some lighter news ...

Americans of certain age are mourning the passing of Carroll Spinney, who brought Big Bird and Oscar the Grouch to life for Sesame Street for nearly fifty years.  And Mean Green Cougar Red posted an appreciation of the children show's countercultural cartoons.

Paradise in Hell is here for the blood red White House Christmas trees.


Alice Embree at The Rag Blog posted about Houston's iconic '60s-'70s underground newspaper, Space City!, getting new digital life.  And there will be a fundraiser for TeXchromosome this coming Saturday at the Peace House Farm in Austin, with music, a flea market, and silent auction.

Last, Jessica Huseman, ProPublica's Texan at large, emphatically explains why she loves Texas.
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Sunday, December 08, 2019

Sunday 'Low Flow' Funnies

“People are flushing toilets 10 times, 15 times as opposed to once. They end up using more water,” Trump said, complaining that water flow in other fixtures has slowed to a trickle. “You can’t wash your hands practically, there’s so little water comes out of the faucet, and the end result is you leave the faucet on and it takes you much longer to wash your hands, you end up using the same amount of water.”










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Wednesday, December 04, 2019

Weekly 2020 Update: They Drop Out in Threes

Hasta la vista, Joe Sestak.

Sayonara, Steve Bullock.

And so long (for now at least), Kamala.


Somewhere in the bowels of the archives here (I really should have started tagging posts years ago) is one that contains a prediction that Senator Harris would be there at the end, wherever the end happens to be.  She was a contendah briefly, after all, and I wasn't the only one who thought she had more than enough potential.  But identity politics can only carry you so far this cycle, and she never had firm positions on policy, vacillating from day to day, M4A being the most obvious example.

Yes, Tulsi Gabbard crushed her early on, but in truth Kamala was unable to adequately defend an abysmal prosecutor's record in the #BlackLivesMatter era.  And yes, she is held to a different standard than Crime Bill Joe Biden.  But that's on his support base of older African Americans, and not her progressive detractors.

When she started falling in the polls in California -- which was moved up on the schedule specifically to facilitate her nomination -- that was everybody's clue that she was toast (IMO).  And then OK Bloomer plunges in, and almost instantly polls ahead of her.


So before she were to suffer an embarrassing defeat in her home state primary, revealing weakness that some ambitious California Democrat might take advantage of should she run for re-election to the US Senate in 2022, she chose the wiser course.  And she has a great deal of political viability remaining next year as a potential vice-presidential nominee or attorney general-designate for the eventual Democratic standard-bearer.

There's lots of bitching and moaning about #PrimariesSoWhite, and that's absolutely a huge problem for the Donks, but they aren't capable of doing anything about it four years from now, never mind in 60 days.  Complain to your DNC member (last time I looked, not many of them were white men).

While my first impression is that many of her supporters are headed to Elizabeth Warren, this Morning Consult poll suggests that Biden and Bernie and Liz all pick up a percentage point, which doesn't alter things to any significant degree.


Let's move on to the remaining horses in the race.

-- Is this worse than sniffing other women's hair, rubbing their shoulders, or groping young girls?  I don't think so, but only because it's his wife.


On the other hand, this is really weird.


Snopes rates it factual.  He said it in 2017, at the same time he related the story about Cornpop.  And it's already been meme'd, long form.


Joe Biden needs an Adult Protective Services intervention.  Stat.

-- What is happening with Elizabeth Warren? Chris Cillizza says it's because she got attacked in the debates for Medicare for All, and face-planted when she couldn't justify her support.  I think he's got it partly right, anyway.


Yet if all you watch is corporate media -- and yes, NPR, funded by Big Oil, is corporate -- then you're getting an entirely different message about Warren and M4A.


"Poison"?  Seems like I've read that before.

“I think it’s that Medicare for All is poison,” said a senior aide to another 2020 Democrat. “It is fucking poison. You touch it, you turn to dust.”

I'm sure it couldn't be a talking point from those consultants hired to trash Medicare for All.  It never ceases to amaze when a former Republican runs off the reservation.



Warren has long been a surrogate for Sanders in the punching bag department.  The Talking Heads ignore him and focus on her because they don't see his candidacy as having any chance.  To that end, Liz has served Bernie's cause quite well.  As the primary continues to distill to two moderates -- Biden and Buttigieg -- and two progressives, the focus will be sharply on the differences between the factions as well as within them.  If you're a fan of early predictions, say that Mayo Pete takes Iowa with Bernie and Liz splitting the rest.  The story will be who finishes third.  Then comes New Hampshire, which at this early juncture is a face-off between next-door neighbors Warren and Sanders.  Nevada, a pure tossup, will give somebody a boost of momentum.  But whoever hasn't won a state by then, heading into South Carolina where Biden is heavily favored, will be facing the loudest calls to stand down.

It may not be clear until after Super Tuesday in early March, when the winners of California and Texas and other diverse delegate-rich states are known, but there are likely to be just two left standing by then: one corporate centrist and one progressive.  For at least two years now, I've thought it would be Biden and Bernie.  I still think that.

-- Why is Bloomberg betting big on Texas?  (The article does not answer the question.)

Bloomberg’s self-funded presidential campaign, launched just over a week ago, has already spent at least $6.2 million on ads in Texas, including at least $2.25 million in the Houston area alone, according to an analysis by the research firm Advertising Analytics. The campaign has so far spent more only in California, and the Houston market ranks third in the nation, behind New York and Los Angeles. Dallas ranks just after Houston, at nearly $2 million. Bloomberg spent $671,000 on ads in San Antonio, the analysis shows.

Bloomberg already has double the earned media in a month than Andrew Yang has for the duration of his campaign.  They're not talking about his scandals, and they're not talking about his long history as a devout, if moderate, Republican.  And how does he qualify for the debates if he isn't taking any individual contributions?  Will the DNC change the rules for him if suddenly turns into a contender?

Okay then; who's ready for some snark?



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