Your new Texas Congressional delegation (part 1)

I was tempted to write "fresh", but then CD-1 incumbent Louie Gohmert is in another rematch with Shirley McKellar, who must just love losing to him.  She's the deep East Texas equivalent of James Cargas.  More on that in a quick minute.

-- CD-2: Todd Litton bested the four others on the D side, at least three of whom were to his left, to move on to the general election against either Kevin Roberts or Dan Crenshaw in November for the right to replace Ted Poe.  Kathaleen Wall got in bed with Trump, spent six million bucks, secured the endorsement of Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz, and missed the runoff by .3 of one percent, or about 145 votes.  I'm tempted to thank God.  The Republican who wins will still be favored in the fall.

-- CD-3: Van Taylor ran against Chet Edwards in 2004, right after the DeLay redistricting, and lost to the Blue Dog (who continued to fend off R challengers until 2010, losing to Bill Flores).  Taylor went on to win election to the Texas House and later the Texas Senate (where he is currently representing SD-8), and is now favored to hold the seat of retiring Rep. Sam Johnson.  He'll face either Lorie Burch or 'the other' Sam Johnson, of the Dems, in November.

-- CD-4: Incumbent John Ratcliffe is likely to vanquish his D challenger, Catherine Krantz.

-- CD-5:  Two GOPers will run off in May to replace Jeb Hensarling; Lance Gooden and Bunni Pounds.  The Rabbit Lady was a Hensarling campaign manager, political consultant, and fundraiser prior to hopping into this race.  Gooden seeks a promotion from the Texas House; the third-place finisher in the R primary is/was former state Rep. Kenneth Sheets.  The Democrat waiting to be skunked in the fall is Dan Wood.

-- CD-6: This contest drew thirteen Republican challengers after Smokey Joe Barton finally quit following the, ah, exposé of himself on Twitter.  The two who will go to May 22 are Ron Wright, a former Barton chief of staff, and JK 'Jake' Ellzey, a retired Navy pilot.  Democrats have two women in their runoff: Ruby Faye Woolridge and Jana Lynne Sanchez, who finished in a virtual tie yesterday. Woolridge led by just 19 votes out of over 29,000 cast.  Sanchez has followed me on Twitter from her campaign's earliest days and has a fascinating life story.

Jana Lynne Sanchez grew up in the Ellis County, Texas towns of Maypearl, Midlothian and Waxahachie. Her grandparents, migrant farm workers, settled in Rockett, outside of Waxahachie in the 1950s. Her grandfather was an undocumented immigrant from Mexico who lived in the U.S. most of his life, before becoming a citizen in 1969. Her father, one of 27 children, grew up on the road and had little formal education.

Jana attended Rice University in Houston on multiple scholarships and thanks to financial aid, student loans, work-study jobs, and the support of family. After graduating from Rice with a degree in Political Science, she went on to work as a political fundraiser, raising millions for state-wide and local candidates in California. She also managed political campaigns in Alabama before turning to journalism.

She began her career writing about food and travel for the Baltimore Sun before becoming a technology journalist. Later she was a foreign correspondent for Reuters in Amsterdam. In 2005 she co-founded CitySavvy, an award-winning financial and corporate communications consultancy with offices in London and Amsterdam (www.citysavvy.com). At the end of 2014 she returned to Texas.

Jana serves on the Dean’s Advisory Board for the School of Social Sciences at Rice and is active in progressive political causes in Texas. She’s an aspiring country songwriter, singer and guitarist.

It'll be uphill for either woman to win this district, but if there is a Trump/Barton/#MeToo/#Time'sUp backlash in the fall, this would be a great place for it to hit.  I'll be watching this runoff almost as closely as ...

CD-7:  Laura Moser (8077 votes, 24.3%) scrambled into the runoff with Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (9731, 29.3%).  Dr. Jason Westin just missed, in show (6364, 19.2%), and to my delight, Alex T came in fourth (5219, 5.7%).  The Tough Guy raised and spent around a million dollars, much more than the others.  Ivan Sanchez and Joshua Butler finished fifth and sixth, and in dead-ass last ... James Cargas, with just 650 votes, or 2%.  The undervote in this race was 923 votes.

I cannot tell you how happy this makes me.  If I never see this guy's name on my ballot ever again, it will be too soon.

I've got 29 more of these to do and no more time left today to do 'em.  Back tomorrow morning, early (as usual) later.  Too much to do offline.  Texas Lege and county race takes still to finish as well.

The statewides: One May 22 runoff and November matchups

-- O'Rourke versus Cruz is your marquee.  As posted earlier, Lyin' Ted wasted no time in calling Robert a pussy "liberal man".  This is how it's going to be for the next eight months, Donkeys; better get used to it.  If Bob doesn't start counter-punching now, this race is gonna be over before the kids are out of school for the summer.

Update: This is the best take on the whole "Rafael versus Robert" nothingburger.  As a reminder, I will be using the candidates' birth names, not their chosen nicknames nor their assumed names (as with the incumbent lite governor), but I will be making puns like this out of them.

Don't leave the fighting-back to the bloggers, Bobo.

-- Valdez (or Average White Guy) against the juggernaut with $43 million, a bad attitude, and an ileostomy bag.  Valdez has a lot to do in the less-than-six-months after May 22 so as not to embarrass herself or the Texas Democrats to any worse outcome than they have experienced for the past 24 years.  Surely improving on 38% and not losing the female vote again, as Wendy Davis managed, is not so difficult as it sounds, yes?  No?

-- Mike Collier versus Danny Goeb.  Once more, if Texas conservatives actually functioned with a speck of rationality, this would not be a brainer.  But this is Texas, and conservatives think with their red, swollen, baboon-ish ass and not with the proper end.

"Keep Texas RED!"

Update (3/9): Goeb's challenger in the GOP primary, Scott Milder, has endorsed Collier this morning.

"I cannot on good conscience vote for a man who I know to be a liar, nor can I vote for a man who willfully ignores and disrespects his legislative colleagues and his constituents," Milder said in the (Facebook) post. "I will be casting my vote for Mike Collier, the rational Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, and will strongly encourage all Texans who voted for me in this race to cast their votes for Mr. Collier as well."

[...]

"It doesn't happen very often that a Republican endorses a Democrat, but public education groups recruited (Milder) to run against Patrick and he and I viewed proper funding of public education as very important," said Collier, a retired Kingwood CPA and business executive.

"I've already had a fair number of moderate Republican donors (to Milder's campaign) who have called and said they want to join me."

The salience here is that Milder earned nearly 368,000 votes last Tuesday.  That covers a lot of the ground between Democrat (bit more than a million voters) and GOP (over 1.5 MM) totals in the two March 6 elections.  It also provides a bigger opening for Collier to go after the Joe Straus/Sarah Davis Caucus.  This development doesn't enthuse me at all -- I voted for Michael Cooper because I thought Collier was too much like a Republican as it is -- but it can prove beneficial for him if he can walk the line between pandering to mild conservatives while not losing any D votes.

If Straus, for example, followed suit with his endorsement as well as some of that cash he's still sitting on, it would become a more compelling storyline for November, the corporate media, and "we just wanna win something" Dems (Kuffner).  Not so much me.

-- Ken Paxton versus Justin Nelson.  Ordinarily when your state's top law enforcement official is under criminal indictment for fraud, he would stand no chance of being re-elected, much less nominated.  Paxton drew no primary opponent.  Why are Texas Republicans afraid to run against him?  Texas Republicans nominated his wife to serve in the Texas Senate, for crine out loud.

Banana republics point and laugh at this.  National politicos -- poorly informed ones -- posit questions a ten-second Google search would clear up for them.  This may indicate a depth of ignorance and dysfunction of our political gatekeepers that even cynical ol' me hasn't plumbed.

-- Sid Miller versus Kim Olson.  Would anyone mind if I just typed 'ditto' to all of the above -- especially the baboon's ass -- and moved on?  Okay, one thing: Jim Hogan, just as he did in 2014 as a "Democrat", made no effort to get elected beyond pay his filing fee but almost pushed Sid into a runoff.  Trey Blocker is still drinking somewhere this morning.

-- George Pee Bush v. Miguel Sauzo.  There was some buzz about Bush being in trouble against Jerry Patterson that I read as late as Monday morning.  Can't find that article now.  Some journalist had their webmaster scrub it, I guess.  Screenshot, anyone?  The story this morning is that it's okay to fluff Trump if you're a Texas Republican, or IOKIYAATxR.  I don't think anybody asked Kathaleen Wall about that, though.  (Next post.)

-- Glenn Hegar against Joi Chevalier.  Maybe a spirited race for the most boring job in state government could turn in the Democrats' favor.  Chevalier defeated my candidate, Tim Mahoney, by a nose, perhaps on the strength of glowing endorsements in the Dallas News, the Houston Chronicle, and others.  Chevalier is the only African American on the state D slate who's not a judicial candidate.  If she can campaign effectively, raise and spend a little money to get her name out there, take advantage of whatever boost she can get running against the charisma-challenged GOP beancounter Jethro Bodine ... possibly there's a chance.

-- Christi Craddick facing off with Roman McAllen to run Texas railroads fellate oil and gas interests under the guise of regulating them.  No offense intended to Mr. McAllen, but he's up against more Texas Republican nepotism here.  He'd be one against two other conservatives in trying to slow down the fracking train if he pulled off the upset anyway.  Still, if the Latin@ turnout (as with evidence of the Russians hacking the election) were to finally show up, I could be a believer.  I remain of the opinion that the onus is all on Lupe.

One judicial tilt I'll mention for now: Sharon "Killer" Keller barely survived her primary and will match up with Maria Jackson in the fall.  If I do any volunteer work this cycle, it will be in this race.

Congressional races, a much hotter topic, coming, maybe by lunchtime today.

*heavy sigh*

As Election Day got under way, Houston City Council member Larry Green -- my representative downtown -- was found deceased in his bed at home after failing to appear at the regularly-scheduled weekly council meeting.  Just 52, it's a tremendous loss for the city, District K, and of course his family and friends.  His political future was quite bright.  And his legacy will encapsulate many things, but every time I see one of the painted electrical boxes in my 'hood, I'll think of him warmly.

As to a couple of top-of-the-ticket results from last night ...

-- Projected almost precisely by the TexTrib's poll from just over two weeks ago, Lupe Valdez and Andrew (Average) White (Guy) will run off in May for the right to get crushed by face Greg Abbott in November.  They finished at 42.9 and 27.4% respectively; the TT predicted 43-24.  Likewise, the Trib had Abbott prevailing with 95% in his primary; he underperformed that slightly at 90.4.  << This link has the final tallies for all the statewide, Congressional, judicial, and statehouse races I'll be referring to in this and subsequent posts.  Just click and open it now so you can scroll down as I continue.  It's the best resource I found, for the county maps alone.  (Credit where it's due: the TexTrib has beaten the pants off everybody else this cycle.)

My man Tom Wakely gained no traction.  The two African American candidates, Cedric Davis and Grady Yarbrough, along with Jeff Payne and even Adrian Ocegueda, finished ahead of him.  Valdez will win the runoff easily if Latin@s return in the summer.  But she needs to start raising some money, get better coaching and preparation if she's going to debate White, and otherwise project some viability as a potential and likely favored nominee.

-- Sema Hernandez earned almost 246,000 votes (or 23.7%) in the D US Senate primary.  She raised less than $10K for her campaign.  I'll let you nerds do the math on her cost per vote.  She won about three dozen mostly rural and RGV counties; Webb (Laredo) appears to be the largest.  Considering the degree to which she was both ignored and disrespected by the media and her primary opponent, that's amazing.  O'Rourke didn't 'coast', folks.  And because the GOP gorged their turnout numbers on Election Day -- the Senate primary on the R side drew over 1.5 million votes, while the Dems totaled just over a million, and Ted Cruz has already fired a shot at "liberal man Robert" -- the prospects for the blue wave seem to be ... swirling?

More on the way.

Final thoughts before the vote tomorrow

You already have my recommendations, so let's just provide an executive summary.

-- Sema Hernandez:

No matter what happens on March 6, 2018, I'm not going anywhere.#WeRise#TexasIndependenceDay

Pase lo que pase el 6 de Marzo 2018, yo no voy a ninguna parte. #SiSePuede #Elecciones2018#TexasPrimaries https://t.co/cuSTX4NXAJ

— Sema Hernandez for Texas U.S. Senate 🌹 (@ElectSema4TX) March 3, 2018

Well, you had better not.

It's been one of my deepest privileges to be associated with this candidate, her campaign, its nationwide presence and clout (just check her Tweet feed).  What she has accomplished has been against the headwinds of purposeful media ignorance, disrespect from her campaign opponent and, as usual, the Texas Democratic Party and its associated cohorts.

This piece from yesterday's Chronicle (firewalled after a few free clicks) and the accompanying video (she appears in the early part) was the best she received.  If Bob O'Rourke falls just short of defeating 'Poop' Cruz in the fall, I sincerely hope it is because of the votes of people like me that he loses, and also the blog posts I will write over the next several months that will continue to expose him for the fraud that I have found him to be.

Sincerely.

-- Tom Wakely:

Plain as day.  Andrew White is just bad news (as Aimee Cunningham reminds Texas women) and Lupe Valdez is just not ready.  Since there will almost certainly be a runoff, then I hope one of these two fails to make it.  If that happens, I'll at least be able to vote for the person not named White or Valdez in May.  This is a moment when a functioning Texas Green Party would have come in extraordinarily handy in November.  Alas ...

I'll return to that topic after tomorrow's primary election results get parsed.  Suffice it to say that I would like to hear from prospective gubernatorial candidate Janis Richards as to whether her bid to achieve ballot access as Green will go forward.  Or not.  Though a relative newcomer to the HCGP, she aligned with the Old White Guard against the black woman who finally succeeded in sweeping that trash out the door a week ago, at their monthly meeting/annual election of officers.  Bully on Bernadine Williams, whom I stood with a year ago against this crew.  I quit on the locals after that; she did not.  And she persevered.  It's the Pottery Barn rule for her now, though; she must rebuild the county party apparatus (which is essentially the same as the state party) with a goal toward functionality for 2020.  I just think the laws and internal obstacles regarding ballot access for 2018 are too stacked against them.  Couple that with the fact that the Democratic Socialists are ascendant, and it's a hard, heavy lift even if the Greens were united.

-- Enough has been said and written about the Texas Seventh Congressional District Democratic primary in the ten days since I posted this that linking to it all would take hours.  Check the #TX07 Twitter hashtag for the latest.  Forces aligned against Laura Moser include not just the Clintonistas and the Pelosiites, but the Republicans as well.  This should tell you all you need to know.

-- Last ... the only primary race on my ballot that I undervoted was the very last one, for Harris County chair.  I have not found the incumbent, Lillie Schechter, representative of my beliefs (since I'm an ultrasoft Democrat on a good day, and a Green on my best one, this should stand to reason).

The county chair needs a day job since the political one doesn't pay.  The problem here is that Schechter has been on the payroll of state senator (and CD-29 aspirant) Sylvia Garcia for several recent pay periods.  This isn't breaking news for those of you connected to the local D establishment's Facebook accounts, where the apparent ethical lapse has been mentioned more than a few times.  I've also been provided screenshots and CFRs that verify it.

No conflict of interest there, right?

Update: El Paso Democrats appear to have the same problem.  (At least he's 'former chair'.)

It's beyond my comprehension how the people who whine about Laura Moser's husband's consulting firm handling her business can seemingly overlook this more glaring, hypocritical contradiction.  Is there anybody who wants to explain this to me?  I'll keep an open mind if something is not as it appears.  For ... oh, another week or so.  The goose's sauce should have simmered long enough to be served by then.

-- If you haven't already, go vote tomorrow.  And don't wait until 6:30 p.m. to do so.

Election Eve Wrangle

Massive turnout in early voting across Texas is the news everyone is talking about as campaigns, candidates, and volunteers make the final push for Election Day.  The Texas Progressive Alliance wishes to congratulate tomorrow night's winners and console those who don't, offering encouragment to refocus (in some way of their choosing) for November.

As one of the perceived front-runners in the Texas Democratic primary for governor, Stephen Young at the Dallas Observer says that it's impossible to determine Lupe Valdez's chances of winning.

Grits for Breakfast posts his collation of criminal justice news that includes the growing movement on the part of some Republicans (!) to end the partisan election of judges in Texas.  A GOP 3rd Court of Appeals prospect is evidence of the problem that needs fixing.

In his compilation of Harris County judicial candidates on both primary ballots, attorney Murray Newman makes an inside joke -- see comments; since corrected -- about Brian Warren, the Democrat running against the vile GOP incumbent Michael McSpadden, about whom you may have read something recently.  Congrats to Murray, by the way, for ten years of blogging.  And Mark Bennett (a Libertarian statewide judicial candidate in recent years) demonstrates what disrespect for the justice system really looks like.

From Lewisville, the Texan Journal reports that the conservative extremists at Empower Texans have taken a few swipes at the mayor and the school board in that city.  In last week's Wrangle, you'll recall that Texas Monthly called out MQS, et. al. for similar tactics in HD-99 (Fort Worth).

Also from last week, you'll remember that OpenSecrets mentioned a retired Texan who gave $500,000 to a GOP org.  The TexTrib followed up on that.

The super PAC, #ProjectRedTX, has quietly raised a half a million dollars — from a single donor — as it looks to ensure Republican dominance in Texas through the next round of redistricting. Those efforts are ramping up as the state prepares to defend its current congressional and state House district maps before the U.S. Supreme Court.

The group is being helmed by Wayne Hamilton, (Gov. Greg) Abbott's 2014 campaign manager, according to a person familiar with the effort. Hamilton, a former longtime executive director of the Texas GOP, has been involved in politics for the past three redistricting cycles.

The Texas Observer sees a blue wave that won't have much green (as in cash) behind it.  Is that a good thing for progressive populism or a bad thing from a pragmatic POV?  Tell me in the comments.

Chris Ladd at Political Orphans sees 'something happening' in Texas.  Excerpt:

What we’ve never seen in Texas is a surge in primary turnout from the party out of power in an off-year election. Even in the watershed year of ’94, the only hint we saw of the coming wave was Republicans closing the gap in voter participation slightly. In statewide elections, serious Democratic candidates generally lose to Republicans by about a 9-point swing. That sounds daunting until you look at the raw numbers and the structure of the (one party, for almost 25 years) system. Turnout among eligible voters in Texas off-year elections ranges between about a quarter and a third. Eligible voter turnout hasn’t approached half in the fifty years that Texas has published the statistic. Texans don’t vote ... until one day they do.

Bonddad's thoughts for Sunday contains some empirical data that supports a similar premise.

Put this all together and the basic fact is that the 2018 voting population is going to be considerably more liberal and Democratic than the 2014 population, even if millennials turn out only in percentages consistent with younger voters in other midterm elections.

Off the Kuff wrapped up his look at Beto O'Rourke's visit-everywhere campaign strategy with hope and a sense that it's worth doing this way regardless of the outcome.

SocraticGadfly takes note of the DNC fraud lawsuit appeal, and while he still thinks something is there, is glad Jared Beck ain't his lawyer.

Scott Braddock documents Greg Abbott's contempt for Republican legislators.

Better Texas Blog explains why Medicaid work requirements are a lousy idea.

Millard Fillmore's Bathtub points out that spring comes about a month earlier than it did for our grandparents.  It's just another marker in the looming cataclysm that is climate change.

The Lunch Tray highlights some bad food research.

Neil at All People Have Value made note of the weekly John Cornyn Houston office protest.

Chris Conde at the SA Current asks if we really need a shopping bag with Selena's likeness on it to celebrate her legacy.

And Harry Hamid's latest post has a little bit of everything: Captain Beefheart, paranoia, snow in Houston ...