Trump's odds of impeachment and extra scattershooting

-- Short bets on Trump being removed from office involuntarily.

As we roll toward January 20, the bookmakers have also started leaning toward impeachment. The British-based gambling company Ladbrokes Coral opened shortly after the election in November with 3-1 odds that Trump wouldn't complete his term. By November 22 the odds were down to 9-4, according to the International Business Times. Now they're 50-50 that he won't make it through.

Paddy Power, an Irish bookmaker, is even less circumspect about Trump's future in the Oval Office. Right now the company is offering 8-1 odds that Trump will not make it six months (that's about twice the odds they gave Obama getting through his first six months), according to Salon. Now Paddy Power is offering 4-1 odds that Trump will be impeached before he completes his term. (It's worth keeping in mind both that Paddy Power is known for making adventurous bets about everything from endangered species to American politics, and that the bookmaker ended up having to pay out a lot of money when Hillary Clinton lost the election in November, meaning the bookmaker isn't infallible.)

As a disclosure, I am a Paddy Power gambler of low frequency, and while you will miss often, when you hit, it's usually big.  I wouldn't wager a dime betting on Trump's impeachment by this Congress, however, no matter how bad he gets.  Now if you gave me these odds on his resigning from office before his first term is through -- or for that matter, not running for a second term -- then I'd be all over that action.

Trump is a 'thrill of the chase' kinda guy, not so much the kill.  He's going to get tired of the daily grind quickly; he didn't start this charade to serve the public.  Washington is not going to be shaken up all that much as his base vote thinks.  If he can't make money the way he's used to, he'll have to subsist on the delight of terrorizing American corporate CEOs, and that also has limited utility after awhile.  Six months?  I'm betting against.  Four years?  I'm betting heavily in favor.  As a matter of my opinion, he's probably out no later than early 2019, a scant two years from now, so that Mike Pence can organize a run for the White House.  And if the Democrats keep on making the same mistakes -- such as overestimating the value of the DNC with a neoliberal at the helm -- Pence could win in 2020, while having an even larger Congressional majority to work with.  I can see his campaign slogan now: "Trump without the Bull(ying)".

But I'm the guy who thought Hillary Clinton would serve two terms and then Julian Castro would serve two after her, so WTF do I know?

-- Betsy DeVos, who wants to bring God to our public schools -- and vice versa -- faces her Senate panel today.

... (I)n a 2001 interview for "The Gathering," a group focused on advancing Christian faith through philanthropy, she and her husband offered a rare public glimpse of their views. Asked whether Christian schools should continue to rely on philanthropic dollars—rather than pushing for taxpayer money through vouchers—Betsy DeVos replied: "There are not enough philanthropic dollars in America to fund what is currently the need in education…[versus] what is currently being spent every year on education in this country…Our desire is to confront the culture in ways that will continue to advance God's Kingdom."

It's not just her Dominionism, her Ben Carson-ish lack of experience, and her massive political contributions that are questionable; she has controversies galore swirling about her.  Hope the coals of Hell are stoked white hot for this grilling.

-- The protests, and the number of protestors, are going to outnumber the people celebrating the new president at his inauguration.

Early estimates back in December suggested that Donald Trump’s inauguration would be attended by around 800,000 people, less than half of the 1.8 million people who attended Obama’s first inauguration (in fact, it’s less than the one million people who attended Obama’s second Inauguration). Trump can subtract at least another 18 people from that number, representing the Congressional leaders who refuse to attend the inauguration (including John Lewis).

However, Trump may not even fetch the 800K originally expected. We won’t know official numbers until we actually see them, but we do know that the main spot for the parking of buses in D.C. for inaugural events is RFK Stadium. There, only 200 charter buses have asked for permits on inauguration day. Compare that to the 1,200 bus permits requested for the Women’s March on January 21st. Right now, it’s possible that the protest march actually outdraws the inauguration. Comparatively speaking, Obama’s first inauguration had 3,000 charter bus permit requests, or 15x more than Trump’s inauguration. Obama also had 10 Inaugural balls compared to the three scheduled for Trump.

However, outside of the inaugural events on Friday, the city could see could see even bigger numbers than 800,000 expected to attend Trump’s inauguration, because some expect that demonstrators will add as much as 750K to the total. Hundreds of thousands of protesters are expected in other cities across the nation on Saturday.

It's going to be a big fucking deal this weekend.

The MLK Day Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance joins in the celebration of the life and legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. today ...

... and ruefully observes that resistance for its own sake over the next four years may be futile.

Off the Kuff thinks that the fight over Dan Patrick's bathroom bill could cause a real and lasting schism between Texas businesses and the Texas GOP.

Dan Patrick and Donald Trump both managed to make news from a certain urological perspective, blogged PDiddie at Brains and Eggs.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme sees the Texas Republican lawmakers on Trump's front lines in the war against our constitution and freedom of the press, while Socratic Gadfly takes note of the opening bell of the Texas Legislature and gets snarky about the first day's events.

Grits for Breakfast has another hideous criminal justice statistic: most TDCJ sexual assault victims are housed in a small number of units, and most are re-victimized by staff there.

Camp Toyahvale at Balmorhea is the scene of a new effort to stop fracking in Texas, and the resisters there have rejuvenated Txsharon at Bluedaze's activist heart.

Ted at jobsanger graphs a poll that shows the public approves of insurance subsidies (like the ones in the ACA) and also a public option (which was not).

The Lewisville Texan Journal's Christina Ulsh reviewed PROOF, a fascinating yet macabre tale of one Texas family by its last surviving member.

Dos Centavos previews two bands performing on Go Tejano Day at Rodeo Houston.

Neil at All People Have Value said that the work of opposing Trump is up to each of us. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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More news from around Texas!

Politifact Texas found President-elect Trump's Tweets about Rep. John Lewis' Congressional district "mostly false".

Popehat points out that Texas cops -- specifically a former Harris County Sheriff's deputy -- put the "best" in bestiality. (NSFW)

The Dallas Observer highlights the legal strategy behind the latest anti-abortion bill filed in the Lege, and the Midland Reporter-Telegram (no bastion of liberalism) sees Texas with a big black eye over the so-called 'bathroom bill'.

Better Texas Blog reminds us that the ACA repeal would mean a lot less mental health coverage for Texans.

The Election Law Blog links to Texas AP bureau chief Manny Fernandez in the NYT about the VRA's perhaps-final effort (given AG-designate Jeff Sessions' views) to fix voting rights in Pasadena.

Truthout was on the scene in Big Bend country, more precisely Presidio County, where indigenous American water protectors have halted work on another Energy Transfer Partners (of DAPL repute) fracked-gas pipeline.

In Port Aransas, Naveena Sadasivam of the Texas Observer wrote about a former felon who convinced a federal agency -- and the Texas General Land Office -- to fast-track a barge mooring facility in an ecologically sensitive area.

Kevin Nix argues that the place to look for child predators is online.

Therese Odell recoils in horror from Trump's press conference.

The Lunch Tray shows how the restaurant industry failed to keep its promise to clean up kids' menus.

Juanita Jean "celebrates" the return of Yachting Randy Neugebauer.

Jonathan Coopersmith evaluates President Obama's legacy in science, technology and innovation.

Jerry Seinfeld opened the glittering new Smart Financial Centre in Sugar Land to rave reviews of both his clean-cut comedy and the brand new facility, writes CultureMap Houston.

And Pages of Victory surveys the state of his back yard, post-freeze.

Sunday Funnies

Cory Booker, the epitome

... of the most recent display of the absolute worst of Democratic hypocrisy.  It's been an overwhelming week; maybe he thought nobody would notice.

There is so much going on right now, such an absolute shitpile deluge of absurdities rolling in from Washington, that it’s almost possible to overlook the fact that 13 Democratic senators either misread or completely disregarded overwhelming national sentiment and voted against an amendment that would have lowered drug prices. It’s worth paying attention to, however, as it doesn’t really bode well for anyone ...

Incredible: Cory Booker & several other Dems join GOP maj in voting down Bernie amendment on importing cheaper drugs https://t.co/yb8N1PRYjp

— Lee Fang (@lhfang) January 12, 2017

(Wednesday) night, Senate Republicans took their first leap towards repealing Obamacare by approving a budget procedure that would allow them to avoid a Democratic filibuster. The 13 Democrats who subsequently voted against making drugs cheaper for people deeply undercut the ability of that party to speak with credibility on behalf of the working class.

The amendment, which was proposed by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Sen. Bernie Sanders, would have allowed the importation of drugs from Canada. Trump has taken a more Democrat-friendly tone on drug prices -- at one point during (Wednesday’s) maniacal press conference he accused pharma companies of “getting away with murder,” which sent stocks tumbling -- and 12 Republican senators, including John McCain, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, ended up voting in favor of the bill.

Most notable among the Democratic “nays” is New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, who made waves yesterday by testifying against Jeff Sessions, a colleague who very much deserved the breach in Senate custom. Booker is assumed to be eyeing a 2020 bid, and Republican Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) accused him of using the Sessions hearing “as a platform for his presidential aspirations.”

I previously mentioned keeping an eye on the Democrats who are up for re-election in 2018 who sit in red states -- Bob Casey, Joe Donnelly, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester.  Tom Carper is a Blue Dog of long repute.  That gang is all here in the noes.  But look who joined them besides Booker: Patty Murray, one of the Senate's D leadership.  Maria Cantwell.  Chris Coons, falling in behind his senior, Carper, from Delaware.

(Sidebar: Coons replaced Vice President Joe Biden in the Senate when Uncle Joe moved up with Obama.  The bromance between the outgoing prez and vice was consummated yesterday as Biden was shocked with a Presidential Medal, and bawled his eyes out over it.  From the wayback machine: Biden was known as Senator MBNA, helping re-write tough bankruptcy laws in 2005.  Socratic Gadfly re-covered it all just last night.  Cuddling up with the big corporations is a Delaware thing.)

Michael Bennett, who was just re-elected, so he can't use that excuse.  Martin Heinrich, representing among the poorest Americans in the nation.  Bob Menendez, Senator Corruption himself.  This is an amendment that Joe Manchin (Senator of Epi-pen) could vote for.  That Ted Cruz and his butt buddy Mike Lee said yes to.  John McCain.  John Thune.  Rand Paul.

More here, here, here, here, and here.  Not mainstream sources, mind you.  The heavy contributions from Big Pharma were again more important than the voice -- and fate -- of the American people.  As one of them so eloquently put it: "Guess these senators are only progressive when it doesn’t hurt their bottom line."

"Progressives" who voted for these Democrats are just being trolled now.

Update: Here's a list of all the House Democrats who voted against the bill that would stop the ACA repeal.  The Texan among them is Henry Cuellar.

Urine big trouble now, Donald, and more scatter-shots

-- Yes, Bill Palmer used it first, AFAIK.  We may have just learned why his hair is that color.  Russian prostitutes, via Russian hackers, allege that more than just Trump's throne is golden.

#GoldenShowergate and #GoldenShowers are both trending this morning, so I'll just respond as the former Donkey that I am now:

Aren't the Democrats supposed to be the party that doesn't care what consenting adults do in their bedrooms and bathrooms?  Didn't we already try to impeach a president over sexual allegations?  How'd that work out?  I forget.

No sooner did they wipe the tears from their eyes after watching Obama's farewell than they jumped back on the Russian obsession with both feet.  I suppose that I would hope that all this caterwauling will eventually -- sooner or later -- chase the Barking Yam out of the White House, but it isn't going to win his detractors any votes back.  Opposing a cabinet nominee by dressing up as a Klansman is one thing; screaming "fetishist" is another.  As a reminder, "grab 'em by the pussy" did not stop Trump from being elected.  Update: Juan Cole, helpfully pointing out that it's not the sex, it's the money.

The people who elected (Trump) knew that he had appeared in pornographic videos, liked to tour the dressing rooms of the Miss Teen contests when the contestants were naked, and groped random women in public places. That he paid for a golden shower or two isn’t even the most disgusting thing in his closet (at least if it was paid for, it was consensual). So I think if Russia threatened him with being outed, he could just brush them off. The evangelical ministers who encourage their flocks to vote Republican have decided that they are all about forgiveness when it comes to Trump. I wouldn’t have said this last year this time, but the guy is Teflon on the right.

If Trump has a vulnerability with regard to Russia, it is far more likely to be financial. He kept going bankrupt (six times!) as a strategy to avoid paying creditors, and understandably real banks stopped wanting to lend to him. The Financial Times alleges that Trump then got in bed with very wealthy figures from, e.g., Kazakhstan, who loaned him money or licensed his name for, e.g., the Trump Soho, in which he was a partner with a shadowy Kazakh figure. But FT suggests that the quid pro quo was that he got them into the New York real estate market, which they then used for money laundering. Money earned from embezzling (say, from the Kazakh ministry of petroleum) or criminal activity needs to be laundered before it can be openly invested. The criminal claims that the ill-gotten funds are profits from an investment, e.g. the FT thinks Trump may have, knowingly or naively, facilitated this kind of activity. If it was knowingly, of course, that was a heavy duty crime. 

Focus on the big picture, Democrats.

If you take a long view of presidential history, you can see that Eisenhower was a backlash of sorts to Truman, that Kennedy/LBJ certainly was as well, and Nixon to them, Carter to Nixon, Reagan to Carter, Clinton 1.0 a JFK-like backlash to twelve years of Reagan/Bush, and W the same also to Bubba, and Obama to Bush the Younger.  And, more obviously, Trump to Obama.  So there's a backlash coming in 2020 no matter what else happens.  As long as we're still around to see it, that is.

It's a new world and the Democrats are still living in the old one.  Maybe the Berners will join forces with a progressive party and they'll run a candidate everybody likes in four years, we can have an unspoiled election.  Too much hope?

-- Today is supposed to be Hair Furor's first presser in six months.  What do you suppose they'll ask him about?  Your young child -- the one without a smartphone, or a laptop, or any friends that do  -- is going to be asking, "Mom, what is a golden shower?" sometime today.  Thanks Obama!

-- Dawnna Dukes, who hears her Austin constituents telling her that she is the most qualified person to remain in her seat in the Texas House, had to sneak around the media to get sworn in, and before the day was out, promptly indicted by the Travis County DA.  I blogged everything that needed it about this topic yesterday.  Dukes is a hazard (hardy har har) and can't go away fast enough.

-- RFK Jr., a noted anti-vaxxer (unlike Jill Stein, despite the Hillbots' strongest effort), said Trump wanted him to head up a commission  (I believe that would make him a czar) to Find the Truth.  Trump's transitioners say they didn't.  We now have more facts -- science arrived at by logic, you know -- to argue over, partisan-style.  Like evolution versus intelligent design, climate change, etc.

Update: Focus, Democrats.

It's a different world and you better figure out your place in it.