Fight Night in Houston tonight

Republicans are in a frenzy.

As Houston readied to become the center of the Republican universe, hosting a crucial presidential debate to be aired on CNN and Telemundo, the GOP hopefuls lined up, holding rallies and headlining dinners. 

With Trump still missing on the eve of the debate, Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio spent the day firing up supporters, some of whom drove halfway across the state to hear from their preferred presidential candidate. 

However, fresh polls released Wednesday provided conflicting takes on who's in front in the Lone Star State. One had Cruz up 15 points on Trump, while another showed the contest was a dead heat. 

"Cruz should win the state, but he can't be a credible national candidate if he can't win his own state, and his campaign has hit a lot of turbulence lately," said Richard Murray, a University of Houston professor who co-directed the poll showing Cruz in the lead. 

A full 19 percent of respondents to that poll had yet to make up their mind, however, and another poll, commissioned by WFAA-TV in Dallas, had Trump and Cruz tied with 32 percent each.

Bold emphasis mine.  That 'undecided' figure suggests some awfully heavy Election Day turnout for the GOP.  Your top two questions: If Cruz loses Texas, why does he carry on?

Most (of his supporters at yesterday's rally) said they supported Cruz because of his strict interpretation of the Constitution, his commitment to religious values, his proposal to repeal Obamacare and his proposed immigration policies. (As of Monday, that plan is to, somehow, round up and deport all 12 million undocumented immigrants estimated to be living in the country.) Still, a couple said they wanted to vote for “whoever could stop Trump.” Others called Trump “a conservative by convenience.” But when it came down to it, most pledged to vote for him anyway should Cruz lose the nomination, because Trump has an R next to his name.  

“If our party picks him, then there you go, we have to stand behind our guy,” said Tex Christopher. 

One man, Blake Insel, said that Trump as president would “drive me to prayer,” saying that he has no reason to trust Trump and has never been given one. But when asked if he would still vote for him over Clinton, he said, “absolutely.”

Fall in, lemmings.  Q #2: If Rubio finishes third, what's the point of his campaign?

With no wins to show after the first four contests in the Republican presidential primary, Marco Rubio's supporters are growing nervous that their candidate's chances of becoming the party's nominee may already be slipping way.  

"He's got to do something, he's got to stir up the mix a bit," said Steve Hosheinz, a 55-year-old accountant from Houston who was among 2,000 people who waited to hear Rubio speak to a rally here on Wednesday. "He's a true conservative but he also as a very positive message. He's someone who can appeal to the middle. He's got to show that."

Neither one is dropping out any time soon; both have oodles of cash to burn through and a measure of "not Trump" support that continues to hold the front-runner in the mid-thirties even as he keeps winning.  This is still a primary that could go all the way to the convention; it's just taking on a Clinton-esque air of inevitability.  (Or is that an odor?)

Besides being this week's big deal for the GOP, it's kind of a big deal for the U of H, too.

The university won the event in a whirlwind competition against unnamed Houston venues after the Republican Party dumped NBC in favor of CNN, setting up a frenzied schedule with just two weeks to get the campus ready. 

In that time, Google turned the Yeoman Fieldhouse, an indoor track-and-field venue that could fit about 60 single-family homes, into a giant media center. The RNC doled out 500 press credentials for 1,000 requestors, vetting them all in days. The university figured out how to get wireless signals to a parking lot for throngs of reporters and visitors while converting its Cullen Lawn into a broadcasting hotspot. Police and the Secret Service did secret things. And nearly 4,700 students, staff and faculty vied for 25 randomly drawn tickets to get a seat inside the Moores Opera House, where the school's symphony orchestra was still practicing a week ago and where Wolf Blitzer will wrangle the candidates to keep them on point tonight. 

Viewers won't see the 16 cameras swiveling about, or appreciate the three days that shoulder-held camera operators spent getting their footwork down, so as not to stumble. They won't see how 320 super-high-resolution display panels were pieced together behind the podiums, or the hours of color balancing and lighting tests. They won't see (Trump stand-in and cruz flack Matt) Wiltshire or other student volunteers doing their best Trumps, Rubios and Carsons. 

The Student Government Association received 550 volunteer applications in about a day -- for everything from general runners to audience coordinators - then interviewed 240 applicants in 16 hours, weeding out potential tomato-throwers and ensuring those chosen would professionally represent the Cougars to an audience of millions. 

The stand-in jobs went to the biggest politics nerds -- and not just Republicans, Wiltshire said. As they stood around while technicians checked sounds and lights, they traded barbs over issues of the day - campus carry, Jeb Bush dropping out of the race, John Kasich's recent comments about women in their kitchens. Those discussions spilled over into the faux debate as CNN checked camera angles and practiced cutaway shots when other stand-ins interjected.

Texas Leftist wishes Cougar Town was getting more of the focus.

There will be protests galore.  The parties last night were hyper also.  I'm going to wade through it all tonight, read some goat entrails, see if anything makes sense.

I'm skeptimistic.

Rick Perry skates

Justice purchased once again.

The state’s highest criminal court dismissed the indictments against former Gov. Rick Perry on Wednesday morning, apparently ending the case that started with his threat to veto state funding for a local prosecutor if she refused to quit her office. 

After Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg was arrested and pleaded guilty to driving while intoxicated, Perry threatened to veto state funding for her office unless she first resigned. The Travis County DA's office was home to the state's public integrity unit, which is charged with investigating and prosecuting state corruption. 

Lehmberg, who served a short jail term, refused to quit. Perry followed through on his threat to veto state funding for her office. 

He was indicted by a grand jury, accused of using his office to coerce a public official. He and his lawyers argued — successfully, as it turns out — that he was acting within the powers of a governor and did nothing criminal.

Here's the only news we need more of.

Two of the courts nine judges dissented; one abstained. 

Here are the nine Texas Court of Criminal Appeals judges.  They include Chief Justice Sharon "Killer" Keller, Bert Richardson (about whom I have written extensively and endorsed in 2014) Larry Meyers (the only Democrat on the bench), and six other greasy no-name Republicans.  Until I know for sure, I'll wager that Richardson and Meyers were the dissenters -- or the abstention.  Meyers (Place 2), Place 5 (open) and Place 6 (Keasler, R incumbent) are on your November ballot.  We'll be blogging a lot more over the next eight months but for now, keep in mind that this court needs fresh, uncorrupted faces.

Watched neither the #DemTownHall nor the Nevada GOP caucus returns

There don't seem to be any surprises ... if you don't count Hillary's added condition of releasing transcripts of her Wall Street speeches 'if the Republicans do' a surprise.

Is it really any surprise so many people deem her untrustworthy?

Democrats like Hillary (well, at least Democrats over the age of 50 like her), but that's pretty much it.  Outside of AARP-eligible blue partisans, Hillary is strongly disliked and disbelieved.  Even Ted Cruz scores better.  Let's establish that she can win the nomination with the solid support of middle-aged and senior Democrats, but that is not a demographic that can -- all by itself -- take the White House.

The prevailing sentiment in 2016 is fairly clear: turnout is skewing downward, and the majority of Republican -- and nearly 50% of Democratic -- voters and caucus-goers are choosing the anti-establishment candidate.  The anti-insider vote is showing up in far larger numbers than the status quo, incrementalist caucus.

So what are Democrats going to do?  Run the ultimate insider establishment figure against the ultimate anti-establishment candidate.  Clinton owns all the baggage that the ruling class is carrying in this cycle's zeitgeist.

Seems very dangerous.

What happens if the judge in her e-mail investigation starts ordering subpoenas?

A federal judge ruled on Tuesday that U.S. State Department officials and aides to Hillary Clinton should be questioned under oath about whether the former secretary of state's use of a private email system was an effort to skirt open records laws.

The ruling by U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan is likely to add to the uncertainty hovering over Clinton, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the November U.S. presidential election, about the legal consequences of her decision to exclusively use a private email server in her New York home for her government work.

More from CNN.  For the record, that judge was appointed by Bill Clinton.  Hillary could be severely damaged goods if things keep going south for her on the e-mail matter.

Are these personal attacks or are they factual observations?  Far too many Clinton supporters believe the former, in fact take them on as personal attacks to themselves.  So they respond with shit pulled out of their ass.  Voter turnout -- as referenced a couple of days ago -- is a universal Democratic problem.  Charles and the Chronic have more on lagging voter participation.

Update: If you'd rather believe that limp Democratic voter turnout is not going to be a problem, Jeff Stein at Vox is there for you with the comforter.

-- Trump sails in Nevada, Cruz and Rubio battle to a draw over second place.  The spin is that's a loss for both of them.  Duh.

The Republicans are streaming into town for tomorrow night's debate.  Hide the children.

Much of the Republican presidential field is set to appear in the Bayou City on Wednesday, ahead of their debate the following day at the University of Houston.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will hold a 1 p.m. rally at Mach Industrial Group, in the 6100 block of Fulton. 

Wednesday evening, Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are scheduled to speak at the Harris County Republican Party's Lincoln-Reagan dinner, which Gov. Greg Abbott also is expected to attend. 

The reception at the Bayou City Event Center in southwest Houston is set to begin at 6 p.m. 

Two hours later, a candidate town hall with Megyn Kelly, filmed in Houston, is scheduled to air on Fox News. Cruz, Carson, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich have confirmed their participation, though real estate mogul Donald Trump will not be joining, according to CNN.  

Rubio also has organized a 4:30 p.m. rally at Houston Marriott South, near Hobby Airport. 

I have a media credential for the set-to Thursday evening and an invitation to Chris Cuomo's party at an undisclosed location.  Cuomo, for the record, is a jackass.  He's setting the stage for a Cabinet appointment, or for his brother's run for president in 2020 ... when Clinton loses in November.

That won't stop me from eating his food, drinking his whiskey, and screwing his women (the latter only figuratively speaking).

UT/TexTrib poll: Clinton 54, Sanders 44

A consistent pattern: the numbers close up as Election Day approaches.

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Bernie Sanders has narrowed considerably in Texas but remains in the double digits among the state’s likely Democratic primary voters, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. 

[...] 

“This race is narrowing, but not narrowing in a way for the lines to actually cross — especially in Texas,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin and the poll’s co-director. Clinton will win, he said, but the question mark, is the state’s Hispanic voters and their relatively low propensity to vote. “This will be a double-digit race, but I don’t think it’s going to be a 20-point race.”

Mrs. Diddie reported seeing four Clinton teevee spots during the course of last evening, all the same, very positive: one on MSNBC and three on the Travel Channel.  Like Nevada, her campaign is going to leave it all on the field.

“It’s her state to lose,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. “Whether this race is 10 points or 18 points rests almost entirely on your opinion of whether Hispanics are going to turn up to vote.”

The Adrian Garcia/Gene Green Congressional 29th race takes on added significance in this light.  Houston's East End turnout in EV locations might be a barometer, but to this point Harris County turnout overall for Democrats is underwhelming.  That may hurt Garcia but it probably won't damage Clinton; voting in the RGV is what to watch for.  As Charles has provided and noted, Texas Democratic votes in the fifteen largest counties (with the exception of Hidalgo) is down about 50% from 2008, but way ahead, almost double that of 2012.  There are no tea leaves to read in this data, beyond what I mentioned yesterday.

Update: Stace has some observations and a suggestion for the Sanders campaign.

For Texas Republicans, Ted Cruz still holds a 37-29 lead over Donald Trump, but it might not matter if he finishes first.  Second place should be enough for Trump to declare victory.

"If he (Cruz) can't win Texas, where does he win?" asked Trinity University political scientist David Crockett, who counted Trump's primary victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina as carrying more weight than Cruz's win in the Iowa caucuses. 

"Caucuses are weird animals," said Crockett, pointing out that they require energy and a big commitment from voters. "Most of the contests are primaries, and Trump has won the first two, in both cases by double digits. That's a recipe for victory in the end if that dynamic doesn't change." 

With Texas considered not only a must-win but a must-win-big state for Cruz, Republicans concerned about Trump's rise are looking closely at the Lone Star State. 

"Trump's got momentum. He's got a lot of support. He could do well in Texas," said Republican consultant Brendan Steinhauser. "Personally, I'm worried about it. I think a lot of Republicans are."

Fear is a primary motivator for conservatives, after all.  To that end, I have seen much discussion among my Republican friends and family about moving to Marco Rubio.  The establishment is also pushing all in on The Robot.  If Rubio closes the gap between himself and the two Texas front-runners, that will be the story next Tuesday night.

Let's stand back and see if things get interesting.  At the moment, they're not.

Low Democratic turnout finally gets noticed

Vox blames it on Bernie Sanders.

It was bad news for Bernie Sanders that he lost in Nevada Saturday. But there may be a bigger crisis embedded in the loss: It suggested he isn't delivering on a key ingredient needed for his "political revolution." 

On Saturday, about 80,000 voters participated in Nevada's caucus — roughly two-thirds of the total that came out in 2008. 

Sanders's reason for running, as he describes it, is to upend how money and special interests shape American politics by empowering voters. This means bringing out an unprecedented number of people on Election Day. 

So as bad as it was to lose Nevada on Saturday night, the tepid voter turnout in itself is almost a more significant problem for him.

Yeah, not going to be Bernie's problem much longer.  He's leaving that soon to Hillary.  nailbender at Daily Kos faults the chair of the DNC.

The bad news (and yes, it is bad) following the first three Dem presidential primaries of this cycle, is that Dem turnout is lower than it was in the wave election year of ‘08, and (this is the really bad part) that the GOP turnout is commensurately higher. This, indeed, does not bode well. 

But to attribute the problem (and yes, it is a problem) totally to the incompetence of the two remaining Dem candidates’ campaigns is an extremely blinkered notion, especially since this very outcome was predicted months ago, based on the strategic idiocy of the Debbie Wasserman Schultz-led DNC.

He (or she) goes on a quite a rant directed at Wasserman Schultz there, so I'll leave it for you to finish.  It may or may not be DWS's fault, but Hillary Clinton is the one -- the only one -- who's going to have to answer for it.

She's as big a part of the problem as Bernie or Debbie, after all.  "Those mean Sanders people do it too!" is the wrong and juvenile response.  Again, why Clintonistas would still be throwing the kitchen sink full of lies at her almost-vanquished opponent remains a mystery to me.  It's almost as if the model for success they are employing is Ted Cruz's.

This bodes poorly for Democrats in November.

Update: This is essentially the reductio ad absurdum that the Democratic primary has come to.  Two links: The Hill, with Hillary asking herself a question -- and not answering it directly -- about trust...

“I understand that voters have questions,” Clinton said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “I’m going to do my very best to answer those questions."

"I think there’s an underlying question that is really in the back of people’s minds, and that is, you know, ‘Is she in it for us or is she in it for herself?’” she added.

“I think that’s, you know, a question that people are trying to sort through."

... and Ron Fournier at The Atlantic, clarifying it.

Voters learned not to trust Bill Clinton to tell the truth about his private life. But they believed him when he said he got up every morning determined to work for them. “Is he in it for us or is he in it for himself?” Even when Bill Clinton disgraced himself and faced impeachment for lying about sex with an intern, most voters believed he was still in it for them. 

Most voters don’t feel that way about Hillary Clinton, and it’s a dangerous matter of trust. She can’t convince voters that she’s always been honest—not in an era that equips people to be their own electronic fact-checkers. She can’t give today’s voters the authenticity they crave. 

Her challenge is to convince them that even if she’s mendacious, she’s their liar—she’s on their side—and the other side lies almost as much. 

Hillary and her people need to be certain that the definition of 'the other side' they're using is the Republicans ... and not Bernie Sanders.