Ninety days from Election Day: assessing the Houston mayor's race

That poll from six weeks ago (there's more polling happening right now, though we may not see it before Labor Day), the negation of the city's equal rights ordinance by the Texas Supreme Court, and a dozen or so candidate fora now under our belts should give us a clearer picture of where the contest to be the next mayor of Houston stands today.

Except none of them really do.  So let's try to get a better handle on things, starting with a couple of Rebecca Elliott's recent articles from the Chron, the first one being the HGLBT Caucus' divided loyalties this time around.

As Houston's first openly gay mayor enters her sunset months in office, the city council campaign between two GLBT candidates is gearing up, and all of this year's progressive mayoral hopefuls are actively seeking the support of the gay community.

The once-marginalized group at the heart of the city's fight for gay rights, the GLBT Political Caucus, is now facing an unexpected test of its establishment appeal.

Last week, three months after the city began enforcing its equal rights ordinance, the Texas Supreme Court ruled that City Council must repeal the law or put it on the November ballot.

Should City Council place it before voters, the equal rights ordinance known as HERO widely is expected to boost turnout and draw in national money, setting the stage for a bitter campaign between the city's progressives and social conservatives.

Sylvester Turner and Chris Bell probably share the lead in terms of earning the Caucus' endorsement, to be voted on by members this Saturday, August 8.  Dr. Richard Murray's assessment -- I have questioned his premises before, and even bet against his prediction once and lost, it should be noted -- is unusually harsh with respect to the prospects for Bell's campaign should he not get it.

The issue is particularly acute for Bell, a longtime ally of the gay community -- one of the few that consistently votes in Houston's municipal races -- as he currently has less money in the bank than any of the top-tier candidates. 

"If he doesn't get the endorsement, that may cause a reassessment of his campaign," said Richard Murray, a political science professor at the University of Houston. 

I'm going to bet against Dr. Murray here again, and not just because he's evaluating candidate viability based on fundraising prowess.  I'm confident Bell will be in the race all the way to the end.  Without a Green or Socialist mayoral candidate filed in the race, he stands as the most progressive choice, and that's in spite of Ray Hill's vituperation.  Turner gets touted as such by his supporters, but those folks think the same thing about Hillary Clinton.  As mentioned before, Sylvester arrived a little late to the straight-but-not-narrow coming-out party.

But the gist of the story here is not so much about who wins the Caucus endorsement as it is whether or not they can mobilize the larger community of supporters of their cause to turn out and vote to uphold HERO.  And it's not just the electoral strength of the HGLBTC at stake; it's also Mayor Annise Parker's legacy.  To that end, she is going to pour all of her resources into saving the ordinance and forgo efforts to lift the revenue cap or change term limits.  Just three weeks ago, those were at the top of her last to-do list.  Not any more.

"It was my full expectation that I'd be spending my remaining campaign funds and my personal time advocating for these two good-government items, but because of the presence of HERO (the Houston equal rights ordinance) on the ballot, I'm going to be having to split my energy over there," she said. "There is no -- at this point -- group willing to step up and advocate for the other two. I'm not going to put some things out there just to fail. It may be more timely to bring the charter amendments to next November's electorate, and I can leave that decision to the next mayor."

So... who's going to be the conservative choice for the anti-HERO faction?  As Elliott suggests, Ben Hall is moving fast to capture that vote.

From Twitter to television, Hall is using his criticism of HERO to set himself apart from the largely progressive mayoral field.

"There's only one candidate in this race who has consistently for the last two years opposed HERO and supported the right of voters to vote," Hall said in a Fox 26 segment that aired Tuesday. "When the pastors wanted to fight in the court system, none of the other candidates was present. I was."

Most of Hall's competitors have remained out of the HERO limelight, issuing a single press release about the Supreme Court's decision or staying silent.

Five of them -- former Congressman Chris Bell, City Councilman Stephen Costello, former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia, state Rep. Sylvester Turner and businessman Marty McVey -- have said they support the ordinance, while former Kemah mayor Bill King has tried to straddle the fence.

"I do not see the empirical need for a discrimination ordinance," King said last Saturday, after previously saying he would not have put the item on City Council's agenda.

Like Costello, King is seeking the support of Houston's conservative west side.

Through a spokesman, King declined to comment Thursday on whether he would vote to repeal HERO.

"He's between a rock and a hard place," said University of Houston political scientist Richard Murray. "The right conservative base doesn't like HERO, but the people who write big checks are more moderate on this issue."

Dr. Murray is correct here, and King has made a fairly strategic blunder, IMHO, by ceding the haters to Hall.  King and Costello -- still under fire for his 'rain tax', despite the fact that we're practically in a drought again -- are simply indistinguishable from one another as the least obnoxious conservative option.  Even Big Jolly agrees.  And despite his past shout-outs to Republicans to moderate their stances on tolerance for gays, Jolly seems to be going in the other direction now.  Perhaps he senses the same opportunity to capture the mayor's office that Hall does.

Is it possible that Hall -- still calling himself a Democrat despite all actions to the contrary -- and Turner split the vote between socially conservative black Democrats and socially liberal ones?

The only person who hasn't been mentioned yet is Adrian Garcia.  He seems to be ambling toward the runoff as the most likeable -- or least offensive -- dimwit in the race.  So far he is Teflon-coated.  Almost nobody has mentioned his lack of college degree, a la Scott Walker -- whose campaign manager is helping Costello -- nor Garcia's failing the HPD sergeant's exam more than once, never having been promoted in his 23 years in the city's police department.  I have called him out numerous times: on his ugly record on deportations, his no-bid consultant scandal, his lousy responses to the county jail disaster, and even his whining about the personnel changes his Republican successor at the Sheriff's Office made after Garcia quit that job.

But I would say that of all of Garcia's shortcomings, probably the most serious is the unflagging support, financial and otherwise, of Rick Perry's lawyer of record, Tony Buzbee (scroll all the way to the end of the article).  It's also come to my attention that former mayor Bill White -- a longtime ally of Garcia's, and an enemy to progressive Democrats himself -- and several Battleground Texas field activists are hard at work for the former sheriff.  (Frankly I thought BGTX was Steve Mostyn's turf.  Mostyn, as we have known for a long time now, is supporting Turner.)

Nobody seems to be noticing these things.  Maybe they don't care.  Garcia doesn't respond to my questions, so maybe someone of greater prominence in the media can get some straight answers.

I sure would hate to see Garcia and Hall in a runoff, that's for certain.  That just seems far too much like San Antonio's mayoral runoff earlier this year for my comfort level.  Hopefully there is something several of us can do -- beyond what Mayor Parker and the HGLBT Caucus will be doing, I'm saying -- to avoid that outcome.

Charles has some good ideas, and I have one I'm going to advance in a coming post.

Paxton updates

-- The Texas attorney general was arrested, booked, fingerprinted, and his mug shot taken this morning at the Collin County courthouse, after a grand jury unsealed indictments against him on three felony counts of securities laws violations.  He pleaded not guilty and asked for a jury trial.  He also posted personal-recognizance bonds totaling $35,000 and walked out of the courthouse twenty minutes after entering, through a side door to avoid press and protestors.

-- QR:

Attorney General Ken Paxton’s likely immediate successor if he were to resign, (First Assistant AG) Chip Roy, on Monday sent out a personal note to agency staff after Paxton was booked into the Collin County Jail on three securities-related charges.

“The Attorney General emphasized to me that he hoped this wouldn’t in any way harm any of the good people who work at the agency, whom, he has come to know and respect tremendously,” Roy wrote to agency staff. “But as you all know, life brings us lots of curve balls.”

-- Also from Harvey Kronberg: "Paxton jeopardy fundamentally different and has possibility of metastasizing":

Allegations not about political chicanery but instead swindling innocent civilians, the same kind of financial corruption that spawned the Tea Party after the Lehman Brothers collapse

Among the dozen or so statewide officeholders indicted over the last couple of decades, few have ever been convicted or served time. In many cases, the prosecution case was weak as when a state district judge directed the acquittal of Kay Bailey Hutchison because, as he told the jury, “the prosecution apparently has no theory of its case.”

With the exception of the Tom DeLay case, which was needlessly dragged out because an all-Republican appellate court ignored then-prosecutor Ronnie Earle’s request for an expedited review of the challenge to the finding of guilt, and let the case languish for four years.

In others, the high-priced defense lawyers simply out-lawyered the public sector prosecutor. Nevertheless, jurors have generally leaned sympathetically to political chicanery.

-- The eighteen other Texans (besides Ken Paxton) who have been indicted over the long history of the Lone Star State.

-- "Abbott and Patrick both issue terse statements on Paxton indictment":

Here’s Gov. Greg Abbott’s full statement:

"Everyone is entitled to due process under the law. As a former judge, I recognize this is the first step in a lengthy process and will respect that process as it moves forward."

The statement from Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick in full:

"It is important to recognize that an indictment is not a conviction. Under our Constitution, every person is innocent until proven guilty. I am confident our judicial system will weigh all the facts and applicable law with a blind eye for justice and Ken Paxton, like anyone else, will be afforded his day in court." 

Prior to these, Texas Republican leaders were deathly silent.

--  Here's more about the judge, the special prosecutors, and his defense attorney.  And here's more about those Republicans scrambling behind the scenes to replace him if/when he resigns.  They include two Texas Supreme Court justices.

Conspiracy theories have already emerged as to why “God’s Lawyer” is facing persecution – err, a prosecution that is partially based on Paxton's own admission to state regulators last year that he violated securities law.

Some might argue it is premature to speculate about how Abbott might handle the appointment of a successor to the Attorney General hand-picked by Ted Cruz and Tim Dunn. After all, the indictment is closer to the beginning of due process than the end and does not force his resignation.

But believe us at Buzz Central when we tell you that some of those who wish to step into the role have been working overtime behind the scenes to jockey for position. And unlike Paxton, none of the names we have heard so far would necessarily have the full-throated support of Sen. Cruz or midland oilman Dunn’s Empower Texans and allied organizations.

-- Yeah, about that Cruz connection.

For anyone asking the question: "How did a candidate like Paxton who already had a long record of unethical practices get elected?", the best answer is "Ted Cruz."

The race for the Republican nomination for Texas Attorney General was wide open in 2014. Paxton faced two other major candidates in the race, and none of the three were considered to be a favorite. The dead-heat nature of the race changed when Ted Cruz backed his close political ally, state Sen. Ken Paxton.

Cruz's support of Paxton was a signal to the extreme Tea Party activists who now control the Texas Republican Party. Paxton easily led the field in the first round primary and then stomped a more mainstream Republican candidate in the run-off.

Ted Cruz has called for the resignation of at least three Obama officials over policy disagreements and even said members of the U.S. Supreme Court who disagree with him should resign.

However, now that Ken Paxton has been indicted and is fighting to stay out of prison, Ted Cruz is laying low and refusing to make any public statements about the indictments. Clearly, Cruz’s support for Paxton has put him in a jam. If he speaks out in support of Paxton, he must explain how he can continue to back a politician facing evidence that he committed felony crimes. If he backs off of Paxton, he will anger Tea Party activists whose support he needs to compete in the Republican presidential primary.

More as it develops.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance prefers attorneys general who aren't themselves lawbreakers as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff is dismayed but not surprised by the business community's apathy about the coming effects of climate change in Texas.

Ken Paxton's indictments broke news on Saturday afternoon, about 24 hours later than PDiddie at Brains and Eggs predicted. The one remaining question is: how long does our lazy-eyed attorney general twist in the wind before Gov. Greg Abbott cuts down his stinking carcass?

Nonsequiteuse is concerned we may never get back through the looking glass. She realizes that facts are a quaint vestige of simpler times, but cannot resist offering not one but five of them, plus a conclusion, an opinion, and even a bonus prediction about Ken Paxton's pending felony indictment, words that give her great delight to type over and over and over again.

South Texas Chisme reports that the city of McAllen has embraced the humanitarian aspects of border immigration, and Dos Centavos makes the observation that Cesar Chavez ain't got nothin' on Bernie Sanders.

Texas Leftist follows the developing story of the Astrodome's latest funding-for-rehabilitation proposal.

Socratic Gadfly talks about the initial rollout of Congress' "new" energy plan and how so little of it is new.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston exposes the latest WART on the GOP: the Oklahoma Federation of Republican Women.

TXsharon at Bluedaze has a recent fracking news roundup.

McBlogger breaks down whatever dumbass thing was said by Michael Bloomberg about raising the minimum wage.

Neil at All People Have Value made note of former President Jimmy Carter referring to the U.S. as an oligarchy. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Scott Braddock analyzes the Donald Trump-inspired proxy war between Rick Perry and Ted Cruz.

Somervell County Salon posts about not wanting to see certain content on one's Facebook timelines, Twitter feeds, and blog comments.

Grits for Breakfast recounts the coverage of the emotional and confrontational Texas House committee inquiry into the death of Sandra Bland.

State Impact Texas reports that as crude oil rides the rails to Houston, Texas firefighters are preparing for the worst-case scenarios.

Lone Star Ma prays for peace and justice.

David Ortez explains what the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance is and why it matters.

Street Smart shows how sacrificing the local street grid for highways can be devastating to the surrounding area.

The Texas Election Law Blog has some hope for restoring regulatory balance to the voting rights process.

Yellow Doggerel Democratic Views notes the passing of Firedoglake and the birth of Shadowproof.

And Fascist Dyke Motors uses a Buzzfeed-style click bait headline, which has nothing to do with Part One of her story, which unfortunately has no Part Two.

Sunday Funnies

Paxton may learn his fate today *update*

*Update:  Missed it by 24 hours.

Attorney General Ken Paxton is expected to surrender to authorities Monday following an indictment on multiple felony charges stemming from his involvement with a North Texas technology company accused of defrauding investors, according to multiple sources close to the case.

A Collin County grand jury issued the indictment against the first-term attorney general on Tuesday, two sources who had been briefed on the proceedings told the Chronicle on Saturday.

Original post: So if I were a betting man -- which I am -- I'm gambling there's going to be a document dump and a press conference in Collin County late this (Friday) afternoon.  I can't bet on whether it will contain good news or more bad news for our lazy-eyed attorney general, though.  Via Charles, who put his post up on Wednesday, the TO.

Is this the beginning of the end for Attorney General Ken Paxton? (Tuesday)’s confirmation by Dallas local news station WFAA that a grand jury was meeting at the Collin County Courthouse to hear evidence related to Paxton’s alleged violations of securities law marks a milestone in his legal troubles. The development has been anticipated by Paxton-watchers for nearly a year and a half, ever since Paxton admitted in writing to violating the state securities code by failing to disclose that he was being paid to route his legal clients into the hands of an investment manager with a troubled track record.

It’s unclear whether this was the first day the jury heard the Paxton case, or how long they’ll continue to meet. But the stakes are high for Paxton. Special prosecutors Brian Wice and Kent Schaffer recently won an order expanding their case from already-disclosed improprieties to a first-degree felony case. That means the amount of money involved exceeds $100,000, and it makes the episode that Paxton already disclosed look like peanuts.

You can read more there for the particulars about how the case was enlarged to a first-degree felony, though there aren't many since the prosecutors aren't telling the media, only the GJ for now.

It's been a long and winding road to this point, and that doesn't include last summer's political season, when Paxton's criminal admission was known but impacted his electoral prospects not at all.  He ultimately defeated his Democratic challenger last November, Sam Houston, by twenty percentage points.  For some additional background, Juanita Jean points out that Wice was one of the guys who helped Tom DeLay, back in the day.  So you could be excused for thinking that, like Rick Perry's one remaining indictment, the fix might be in.

That Paxton is in legal trouble can be attributed in part to the efforts of a watchdog group, and the determination of a local lawyer.

The public integrity unit within the Travis County district attorney’s office said it lacked jurisdiction and forwarded information to Dallas and Collin counties for lack of jurisdiction. Dallas County District Attorney Susan Hawk didn’t touch the case either, saying she was not aware of any alleged crimes being committed in the county.

That left Collin County, where Paxton’s friend and business partner, Greg Willis, is district attorney.

After receiving a complaint from Texans for Public Justice, Willis stepped aside and said that “appropriate investigation agencies, including the Texas Rangers,” should handle the allegations against Paxton.

“As soon as we saw what he signed with the State Securities Board, it was obvious that he was admitting to felony conduct,” said Craig McDonald, executive director for Texans for Public Justice. “If Greg Willis hadn’t stepped aside, this thing would have died.”

Meanwhile, Dallas lawyer and blogger Ty Clevenger took the extraordinary step of sending information about Paxton to members of a Collin County grand jury, including three from the same church. He said he also dropped off information to a grand jury member’s home. He got their names from Collin County officials by asking; in Dallas, Hawk declined to release the grand jury’s names.

Following that, sniping between Paxton's spokesman, Anthony Holm, and special prosecutors Wice and Schaffer.  I'll leave to you to click and read it.

It's been three weeks since nonsequiteuse asked the question.  Let's move on to the follow-up question, for no greater purpose than parlor game speculation.  If Paxton gets indicted, does Greg Abbott finally force him out in order to replace him with a hand-picked stooge?  And if so, who?

I'd like to hear more about this behind-the-scenes jockeying, but so far as I can tell, nothing's being said out loud.  For the record, Paxton crushed Dan Branch in the runoff last spring, and the fellow who came in third, Barry Smitherman, is extremist and dishonest enough himself to be a perfect fit after Paxton.  Smitherman's bloc of votes moved directly over to Paxton after the general election, so if Abbott needs to appease Tea Party animals, there's some red meat he could throw them.  But that's as far as I can go in terms of prognostication.

First we need to see Paxton shown the door, and that will only stand a chance if the Collin County grand jury returns an indictment or two.  And frankly I find that unlikely, despite the desperate screeching of Paxton's mouthpiece/flack, Holm.

Today could be the day we know something, either way.