171,000 Democratic primary early voters in Harris County

Shatters modern-day records. The Harris County clerk, Beverly Kaufman, called the turnout "unprecedented". If EV follows recent trends, then the nation's third-largest county will have over half a million Democrats voting in the primary. That's twice as many as I originally predicted, and that portends a statewide tally of somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million Texans voting Democratic in 2008. A million more Democrats than I thought there would be.

That is a deep, dark blue azure wave sweeping across this red-ass county, and it's going to scuttle a lot of Republicans as it tears across the prairie. We're watching Texas return to its Democratic roots.

But are they all voting all the way down the ballot? Are there a bunch of Republicans making mischief? Or is it independents and ex-Republicans expressing their outrage of the past seven years at the Democratic ballot box? Is it Obama-mania, or just a hotly contested presidential race for the first time in my voting lifetime bearing fruit? Kuffner has several answers, but we'll mostly have to wait for next Wednesday, and a few days afterward, to know for sure.

I'll be making final preparations to participate -- possibly conduct -- my precinct's caucus convention, so expect little here until after Election Day.

Sunday Funnies (Say Good Night, Mrs. Clinton)

TX exit poll: Clinton 41, Obama 38

Other 17% (presumably Edwards, Dodd, Richardson, and other presidential candidates who have suspended campaigns but remain on the Texas ballot) and Undecided 4%.

This outfit -- People Calling People/Texas Voyager (.pdf, scroll to bottom) -- used an automated interactive call to 408 respondents, self-declared Democrats who have already voted in the March 4 primary. The MoE is 4.85%, and calls were conducted between 6 and 9 p.m. on the evenings of February 26 and 27.

Neither Kuffner nor BOR, the real gurus for these sorts of numbers, appear to have blogged this yet so opinions as to validity, integrity and so on I'll leave to them and similar experts as to whether or not this is good data.

It seems to contradict the supposition that the "surge x 10" of early voting is driven by the Obama campaign. I suppose we will have to wait and see.

Update: That 17% 'other' -- as well as the 4% undecided -- calls into question the accuracy of an exit poll, particularly one in which the participants declare as having voted to an auto-dialer. K-T at BOR mentions that the poll doesn't appear in the Pollster.com list, or the Real Clear Politics aggregate.

Update (2/29): Kuffner -- with the assist from John Zogby -- makes it make a little more sense.

Gene Kelly for Senate

Not an endorsement. The reclusive perennial candidate finally has a website:

http://www.genekellyforsenate.com

I did, however, volunteer to work on his outreach campaign. Here's a snapshot of me providing my resume':

To Beaumont to see Rick Noriega today

and a few clients. Light posting ahead to Election Day. Perhaps if the Ohio debate amounts to something besides more mud slung from Mrs. Clinton I'll have something to say, otherwise I'll leave you to play in other peoples' sandboxes for awhile.

Update (2/27) Here's video. Here's another. See if you can spot me.

Update II (2/27): Join me in calling on Senator Box Turtle to match Noriega and release his military records.

Oh yeah ... Student deferments from 1971 aren't actually "military" records. My bad.