Not a forecast; it IS too early for that. Not a prediction, either.
Here's 270 To Win's map, something we'll all be playing with as the time draws nigh (and please note that its snapshot reflects the date of this post, so click over and see if it's changed if you're reading this after today). This one isn't interactive.
Note the states in grey considered toss-ups: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, from R to L, Eastern to Western time zones.
Play with this next map to your satisfaction (it should be interactive). I present my scenario and explanatory rationale below.
So if I were forecasting or predicting it would go something like this ...
I believe that the share of the third party vote in PA, GA, and MI -- between Jill Stein, Claudia de la Cruz, Cornel West, Joseph Kishore, Jasmine Sherman, Chase Oliver, Randall Terry and a few others -- will be just enough to tip the scales to Trump in those states. No, it's not siphoning; votes are not zero-sum because votes are earned. The primary factor in MI will be the Muslim American vote which appears to be breaking for Stein. From what I'm reading I think Harris' ground effort in NC wins there. Walz nets WI for the Blues.
That leaves 17 electoral votes -- AZ and NV -- needed to give Kamala 269, which throws the presidency into the House. Where Trump is chosen.
So if you're suddenly feeling dyspeptic ... I understand. Anxiety can be reduced by taking action. 'Action' is not defined as "attacking Jill Stein and the Green Party on Twitter".
If I or the polling used to arrive at the consensus forecast employed by 270 To Win are wrong -- or if circumstances alter the future -- you still have the ability to influence the outcome by a variety of effective methods of your choosing. Again, the least effective way would be posting multiple hashtags on social media.
Best of luck to your team. Enjoy your weekend. I'll have toons on Sunday mocking the duopoly, the political system, our appalling times, and some other social commentary.
Like always. It's what I do here.
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