Stage set for last GOP debate of 2015 tomorrow night

Vox:

This debate (the fifth for the GOP) will feature nine candidates on the primetime stage. Just five of those nine managed to qualify by topping 3.5 percent in an average of national polls — Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and Jeb Bush. However, CNN also took polling averages in Iowa and New Hampshire into account, so Chris Christie, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, and Rand Paul also made the cut (though CNN had to bend its rules a bit to get Paul in).

Four other candidates — Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, and George Pataki — will be relegated to the earlier undercard debate. The other GOP candidate still running, Jim Gilmore, failed to qualify.

CNN will host, broadcast, and stream for free to non-cable subscribers.  Wolf Blitzer will moderate, Hugh Hewitt (you may recall he and Trump have some contentious history from September over terrorism) and Dana Bash will offer a few questions.

As far as as I'm concerned, the viable field of potential nominees consists of Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Christie, whose rise to second in NH may carry him into the spring and the Massachusetts GOP primary on Super Tuesday (March 1).  But after that, it's a long way to the NY primary on April 19 and the New England Super Tuesday on April 26, and there's no other states that vote before then in which I see him competitive.

So call it Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Fat Bastard by late February, rolling toward South Carolina.

With concerns from the RNC and “establishment” conservatives such as Mitch McConnell, Trump is privy to a new level of internal scrutiny, facing the prospect of a brokered convention if he’s successful in the primaries. Trump has spoken of running as an independent, which was echoed on Friday by Ben Carson, who threatened to leave the Republican Party if he deemed it too unfriendly to less orthodox candidates.

With Cruz surging in the Iowa polls, endorsements rolling in, and conservatives starting to treat him as a sober alternative to Donald Trump, a strong performance on stage will likely propel him that much closer to winning the first round of 2016. Trump has insisted that the moment he starts attacking Cruz, the Texas Senator will suffer (he referred to Cruz as a “maniac” Sunday morning), but Cruz has shown durability as a Trump alternative. He took a commanding lead in Iowa polling over the weekend. There’s only one Republican debate after the next one before Iowans flock to the caucuses.

The Democrats will debate on Saturday night.

Clinton, Sanders, and O’Malley will debate this Saturday at 8 PM at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire. The debate will be hosted by ABC News, the New Hampshire Democratic Party, WMUR-TV, and the Union Leader. David Muir, Martha Raddatz, and Josh McElveen will moderate.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance congratulates Houston Mayor-elect Sylvester Turner as it brings you this week's lefty blog post roundup.

Off the Kuff examined the legal arguments in the latest voting rights case before SCOTUS.

Libby Shaw, contributing to Daily Kos, notes once again how Governor Greg Abbott brings out the absolute worst of Texas. This time it’s an attack  on Muslim families.

Socratic Gadfly offers up an environmental twofer. First, he looks at the Paris climate deal and calls it toothless bullshit. Second, he reviews a new book about the attempt to ban fracking in Denton, which includes comments from TXSharon.

And TXSharon (BlueDaze) has been in Paris for the climate change negotiations, and her organization, Earthjustice, had this press release at the conclusion of the negotiations.

In a post about the GOP squandering the youth vote (along with women, minorities, and even sane Republicans) PDiddie at Brains and Eggs suggests a ready-made platform issue for progressives: hiking the minimum wage.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is actually shocked at John Cornyn's hypocrisy over a Senate confirmation. Shouldn't be surprised, though. Hypocrisy is a Republican stock in trade.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston takes on arbitration clauses in retail contracts.

nonsequiteuse has a few snapshots of Abigail Fisher's childhood.

Neil at All People Have Value expressed hope that Houston Mayor-elect Sylvester Turner has the insight and imagination to look past the insiders and organized interests that seem to form his outlook, and to instead see the whole of the great City of Houston. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Wendy Davis and Hillary Clinton are equal opportunity opportunists, writes Somervell County Salon.

The Rag Blog's Ho-Ho-Happy Hour is the week before Christmas and features Jonah Raskin, author of a dozen books including biographies of Allen Ginsberg, Abbie Hoffman, and Jack London, as well as being the former Minister of Information for the Youth International Party (Yippies).

Trail Blazers catalogues the short journey of Garland's Katrina Pierson, from tea party star to "So, what, they're Muslim" fame.

Rick Green, a longtime associate of extreme fundamentalist Rev. David Barton, will run again for the Texas Supreme Court (via TFN Insider).

The Lunch Tray calls for a truce in the mommy food wars.

Fascist Dyke Motors has a question for you.

David Ortez wants to know why DPS is more likely to stop and search Latino drivers.

The San Antonio Current documents a racist meme (and the excellent reply to it) making the rounds about the first turbaned Sikh basketball player in NCAA history.

Mary Flood gives us the top ten Texas legal stories of the year.

Newsdesk and the Press were on the scene at the "mass shooting" protest and farting counter-protest in Austin.

And Eater Houston was first with the heavy snark about the Waller County sheriff having his arsenal of weapons stolen from his truck while he ate lunch.