Parker up, Dome down

A $217 million bond measure to fund a massive Astrodome renovation failed by several percentage points, a decision expected to doom it to the wrecking ball.

[...]

"We're going to have to do something quick," County Judge Ed Emmett said afterward. "We can't allow the once-proud Dome to sit like a rusting ship in the middle of a parking lot."

He called it "an interesting evening to say the least" and added, "We have an electorate that is for whatever reason anti-bond."

The news came as a blow to representatives of the National Trust for Historic Preservation.

"There's no disputing this building is an icon," said the Trust's Beth Wiedower. "Its legacy will live on even if it doesn't. It seems like its fate is sealed; obviously we are disappointed in the outcome."

The other Harris County bond referendum on the ballot, a $70 million initiative to fund part of a city-county inmate processing center, narrowly passed in complete but unofficial returns. The vote will let the city shutter its two aging jails.

It's not hard to say that turnout was driven by the Dome proposal. But since the margin of victory for the "Nos" was about 16,500 votes ... and 19,685 voters -- out of nearly 260,000 -- did not pick either 'for' or 'against', what to think about that?

Compare this to the Houston mayor's race, where Parker won with 57% of 169,549, and just 4800 undervotes. That tells me that a hundred thousand people in unincorporated Harris County (or incorporated in another municipality) made their way to the polls -- or mailed in a ballot -- but at least four times as many of those voters made no choice about the life or death of the Astrodome.

That is just weird.

In other news, Ben Hall wiped himself out as expected.

Mayor Annise Parker swept to a third term Tuesday night, beating back a crowded field led by former City Attorney Ben Hall.

News of Hall's concession call was greeted with a burst of applause at Parker's Election Night event at the George R. Brown Convention Center. The mayor took the confetti-strewn stage right at 9 p.m.

"I love this city," she told supporters. "Tonight I feel it loves me back."

Of the race with Hall, she added, "This was not a limping across the finish line. This was a decisive victory."  Indeed, Hall conceded about 90 minutes after polls closed.

"We may not have enough votes to be the mayor of Houston. But it does not end our journey," he told supporters.

Despite the early Election Night exit, Hall said his campaign awakened City Hall to some of the criticisms and needs of Houston residents. Issues like the poor quality of roads and reducing crime were brought before voters, he said, as a result of a hearty campaign.

Some supporters just wished it last a little longer, applauding Hall for his gentlemanly campaign. Alvin Zimmerman, Hall's campaign chairman, called Hall's efforts "upstanding and righteous, as opposed to what he faced."

That last quote is the weirdest thing I have seen or heard regarding the mayoral contest yet.

Hall's supporters -- many of them Republicans to be sure, but also many evangelical African Americans who have historically voted D -- all seem to be as delusional as Hall himself is.  It's just Tea Party, alternate reality psychosis.

And as for this biannual municipal coalition of Republicans and conservative blacks who think they can build a winner together... stop kidding yourselves, hate mongers.

More about city council races next.

Harris County Election Returns

Updates as we go through the night.

These returns are for EV votes cast prior to Election Day, and flashed to the harrisvotes.com website after 7 p.m.  The first Election Day tallies were posted at 8:30 p.m and only the closest races below have been updated, with the early numbers appearing now as a strike-through.

Update: Latest numbers as of 9:00 9:30 10 p.m. with 36% 66% 97% of the county's precincts reporting.

State propositions 1-9:

1.  86% For, 13% Against
2.  81 -18
3.  56-43
4.  86-14
5.  63-37
6.  78-22
7.  75-25
8.  69-31
9.  84-16

The water bill had some late objections from the left, but it looks as if it will carry.  At 8 p.m., the Associated Press called all statewide propositions as having passed.

Harris County propositions:

1.  51% For, 49% Against. 50.97- 49.03 50.59 - 49.41 50.09 - 49.91

At 9 p.m., about 3000 votes separated ayes from nays. This proposition, for the detention holding facility, is hanging by a thread; at 9:30 p.m. it's about 2100 votes.  At 10 p.m it's less than 400 votes.

At 11 p.m. and with all boxes in,  the detention facility measure passes by 456 votes.

2.  46-54 46.43 - 53.57% 46.61 - 53.39 46.55 - 53.35

The Dome is in trouble.  At 9 p.m., and with 36% of the vote counted, the 'Fors' are trailing by 10,000 votes.  At 9:30 p.m the gap widens to about 13,300 votes.

At 9:37 p.m. the Houston Chronicle called the proposal defeated.

-- Houston Mayor (in ballot order, contested races only):

Eric Dick - 11%
Annise Parker (inc.) - 57%
Ben Hall - 28%
All others - less than 1% each

Not much mystery left here.  There are 1,044 early votes from Fort Bend County that are unlikely to tip the mayor's race, but, unlike Harris, Hall (63%) leads Parker (33%).

At 8:45 p.m., Parker's campaign reports that Ben Hall has called the mayor to concede.

-- Houston City Council District A:

Amy Peck - 7%
Brenda Stardig - 30% 29.7%
Rhonda Hale - 5%
Helena Brown (inc.) - 38% 38.5%
Mike Knox -19%

A runoff between the incumbent and the previous incumbent looks likely.

-- District B:

Kathy Blueford Daniels - 21% 22%
Kenneth Perkins - 8% 9.5%
James Joseph - 6% 7.5%
Jerry Davis (inc.)- 65% 61%

-- District D:

Travis McGee - 6%
Keith Caldwell - 2%
Christina Sanders -5%
Demetria Smith - 2%
Assata Richards - 9% 10%
Dwight Boykins - 47% 43.97%
Lana Edwards - 4%
Larry McKinzie - 2%
Anthony Robinson- 4%
Georgia Provost- 15%
Kirk White - 1%

Boykins and Provost will square off in December.

-- District F:

Richard Nguyen - 52% 51% 51.32% 51.47% 51.60%
Al Hoang (inc.) - 48% 49% 48.68% 48.53% 48.40%

The incumbent is surprisingly trailing.  This contest will be decided late in precinct returns from the far west.  At 9:30 p.m. Nguyen clings to a 165-vote lead out of 5,600 cast.  At 10 p.m., and with a 200-vote lead and 6124 district votes counted, Nguyen will hold on to defeat Hoang.

-- District G:

Brian Taef - 18%
Oliver Pennington (inc.) - 82%

-- District I:

Leticia Ablaza - 20% 21% 22.39% 22.87%
Robert Gallegos - 25% 25.34% 25.90% 25.01%
Graci Garces - 30% 29% 26.88% 27.51%
Ben Mendez - 24% 25.02% 24.83% 24.6%

Still anybody's ballgame.  At 9:30 p.m. Gallegos leads Mendez by 29 votes for the right to face Garces in the runoff. At 10 p.m Gallegos still has a 21-vote margin over Mendez.

At 11 p.m., with 100% of precincts reporting, Gallegos holds on to that 20-vote lead and will run off with Garces next month.

-- Houston City Council At Large 1:

Stephen Costello (inc.) - 63% 61%
Griff Griffin - 37% 38%

-- At Large 2:

David Robinson - 40% 39.89% 40.11% 40.55%
Moe Rivera - 14%
Andrew Burks (inc.) - 41% 40.48% 39.24% 37.94%
Trebor Gordon - 6%

A horse race tonight, and in December.  Challenger Robinson caught and has gradually pulled ahead of incumbent Burks, and will be the favorite to defeat him in December.

-- At Large 3:

Brad Batteau - 9%
Roland Chavez - 11% 12.17%
Rogene Calvert - 17.2% 17.26% 16.85% 16.59%
Michael Kubosh - 29% 28.73% 28.55% 28.33%
Jenifer Rene Pool - 16.9% 16.95% 16.85% 16.87%
Roy Morales - 17.1% 17.27% 17.63% 17.66%

The evening's most interesting development will be who will face Kubosh in the runoff. At 8:30 p.m., exactly two votes separated Calvert and Morales. At 9 p.m. Morales pulls slightly ahead of Calvert and Pool, by 675 votes.

At 9:30 p.m., Morales now leads Pool by over 800 votes and Calvert by more than 1100.  The two Republicans will face each other in December's second round.

-- At Large 4:

CO Bradford (inc.) - 83%
Issa Dadoush - 16%

-- At Large 5:

Jack Christie (inc.) - 56%
Carolyn Evans-Shabazz - 32%
James Horwitz - 12%

-- Houston City Controller:

Bill Frazer - 47% 47.89% 48.28% 49.02% 48.86%
Ronald Green (inc.) - 53% 52.11% 51.72% 50.98% 51.14%

The incumbent may yet hold off the Republican challenger, but late returns will tell the tale. At 9:00 p.m., Election Day results continue to narrow the gap for Frazer.

At 9:30 p.m., just 2200 votes out of 110,000 cast separate the two.  But the real news is the 30,500 undervotes in this race.  At 10 p.m. Green gets a little breathing room, leading now by 3000 votes.

At 10:20 p.m., when the votes from Fort Bend and Montgomery are added, Controller Green has a 5,062 vote lead.  He has narrowly avoided being upset. 38,134 Harris County voters did not vote in this race.

More about these results -- and voter turnout, which came in at 259,000 votes across the county, and 174,000 in the mayor's race -- tomorrow morning.

Election Day

-- For those opening their polling places this morning, this account by Greg Wythe about his experience as an EV clerk -- and how the "substantially similar" business is being handled -- is timely and valuable.  Just know that your mileage may vary depending on how your election judge interprets the law.  And that it will probably be revised in its application in the future.  All of which suggests that the photo ID law is not meant to "true the vote" but to stifle it.  To cause confusion, uncertainty, and irritation, especially among infrequent voters.

-- I'll refer you back to my earlier prognostications regarding electoral outcomes today.  I am not yet released from my EVBB duty, so commenting on anything on the ballot remains verboten.  I will say that the most important result to me personally is Prop 2, the fate of the Dome.  Anecdotal reports have lately suggested it might not pass; hope I'm wrong about that.

Durrel at New Media Texas has some predictions on video of mayoral, council, and education board races.

-- Turnout for early voting was to my eye massive, but Charles seems convinced that after we see the numbers for today that it will not have predicated a large increase in total votes over previous municipal cycles.

My guess is that Houston’s final turnout will resemble the 50% early scenario, with between 130,000 and 150,000 votes total in the city.

Let's see how close he comes to that.  Here's his list of watch parties for tonight.

Update: And if you're really OCD about today's election, follow the Chron's all-day-long liveblog (or the Twitter hashtag #houvote).

Texas Tribune poll has Abbott leading Davis by 5 percentage points

And twenty percent still undecided.

Attorney General Greg Abbott, the leading candidate for the Republican nomination for Texas governor, holds a single-digit lead over the likely Democratic nominee, state Sen. Wendy Davis of Fort Worth, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

[...]

“What you’ve got is a race in which, for the first time in a long time, the Democrat is as well-known as the Republican at the outset of the race,” said poll co-director Daron Shaw, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

I have thrown many rocks at the TexTrib's polling since its inception, but I have to say that this feels about right.  It may, however, just be one of those reinforcing-one's-existing-beliefs kind of data points.

“These numbers are not evidence that the underlying fundamentals are changing in Texas,” said Jim Henson, who co-directs the poll and heads the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin. “We have not seen a big change in party identification, and we don’t see any large-scale shifts in the underlying attitudes that are forming.”

That also feels right.

So is Abbott's woeful 40% figure just another a polling error?  Could it be an oversampling of a Davis demographic... or could it be Abbott fatigue?  If Republicans generically aren't losing support, then why isn't Abbott pulling something in the traditional 55-40 range?  Or at least 50%?  I don't think "too early" explains his sagging result.

This should be enough to get Democrats enthusiastic (not to mention getting your e-mail inbox filled with Davis financial solicitations).  There's more interesting poll results at the Trib's link, including "Don't Know" leading David Dewhurst in the GOP LG primary by 46-26 with Dan Patrick at just 13%.

Update: Harvey Kronberg thinks there's bigger news than Wendy Davis barely outside the margin of error.

The stunner in today’s Texas Tribune poll was not that Wendy Davis is within shouting distance of Greg Abbott in a general election, but that with all his money and name ID among Republican primary voters, he just hits 50%. One wobble and he could be in an unpredictable and volatile runoff where anything could happen.

Update II (11/5): So much for this being a close race early.  PPP, a polling outfit with a much better track record, released its most recent survey of Texans at lunchtime on Election Day and it has Abbott up 15, at 50-35.

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance falls back once a year, but is always moving forward as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff gives an update on the 2014 Democratic lineup so far.

Horwitz & Sophia at Texpatriate published a featured article that examines Houston mayoral candidate Ben Hall's time as city attorney as well as his messy transition back into the private sector.

As the see-saw court battle over the Texas abortion restrictions law moved through the courts, both sides could claim victory in the past week. PDiddie at Brains and Eggs knows that -- besides having the SCOTUS rule in their favor sometime in 2015 -- the only way to guarantee women's reproductive freedom is for Democrats to turn out the 2014 vote.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme doesn't know whether to laugh or cry at the prospect of la la fantasy man David Barton running against the rapist enabler John Cornyn.

Eye On Williamson, still blogging at their temporary home, has Greg Abbott thinking that the Lege will cede him more power. He's either ignorant or naive about how the Texas Legislature actually works, in Follow-up on Greg Abbott's "economic" plan.

Neil at All People Have Value said that Houston mayoral candidate Ben Hall is a lousy guy who does not support the freedom of all people. All People Have Value is part of NeilAquino.com.

=========================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Equality Texas guest poster Melanie Pang documents why she supports Wendy Davis.

PTA Mom Kim Burkett is equally effusive about Sen. Davis.

Better Texas Blog sets the record straight about pre- and post-ACA rates.

The Lunch Tray explored the ethics and dilemmas of Halloween candy.

Texas Watch calls on the Texas Department of Insurance to adopt some much-needed reforms for auto insurance.

TFN Insider has some good news about science textbooks in Texas, but warns that politics remains an obstacle.

BOR laments the millions of Texans that will be hurt by the cut to food stamps.

Blog con Queso celebrates Dia de Lost Muertos, and no, that's not a typo.

Sunday Daylight Saving Funnies

Posts with words -- opinions, predictions, you know, the usual stuff -- to resume eventually.  In the meantime I shouldn't have to remind you that this is Fall Back Sunday, and that you don't have to turn your clocks backward an hour, because we all have those magic 21st-century timepieces that do so automatically.  Right?

Enlarge (by clicking upon) and enjoy.

Just one last thing to add

Halloween Funnies

I need a laugh.  How about you?

Looks more like Steve Stockman to me.

Earl W. Dorrell 1929 - 2013

That's my Dad, whom I have referenced here a time or two.

USN Seabees, 1947

In the past few weeks, complications from end-stage dementia worsened his suffering, and so his peaceful passage this morning is, truly, a blessing.

Date and age uncertain, but a little before the first one.

After he and my mother divorced when I was 16 years old, Dad went on to remarry a woman from his church, June Davis, who had her own children our ages -- we had all gone to school together -- and they traveled the country in their "fifth wheel" in retirement.  They also made a couple of trips overseas, one to the Holy Land.

My stepmother passed away peacefully at home in December of 2011, and after that my father and mother enjoyed a reconciliation.  They had lunch often and other visits to look at old photos and remember and laugh about the good times on several occasions over the past year-and-a-half.  Here's a photo we all took at Mom's 87th birthday celebration this past June.

Requiescat in pace, Pop.

Some personal updates

-- This Ben Hall business is not something I can post about as long as I am serving on the Early Voting Ballot Board. I have an opinion about it, of course, but I won't be sharing it.

-- Besides my electoral responsibilities, my father's health has taken a grave turn and so, as a consequence, you should anticipate light blogging here in the days ahead.

Thanks for everyone's good thoughts.

Federal judge rules Texas abortion restrictions unconstitutional, Abbott appeals - Update: And wins stay

It ain't over, though, until it gets to the 5th Circuit -- or the Supremes, and there's really no reason to celebrate.  First, today's developments and then the analysis.

Attorney General Greg Abbott has filed an appeal to Monday’s ruling striking down a key provision of Texas’s new abortion law, according to a new court filing in the case.

U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel ruled Monday that a provision to require abortion providers to have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals is unconstitutional.

Yeakel also partially blocked new restrictions on pregnancy-ending drugs, saying they “may not be enforced against any physician who determines, in appropriate medical judgment, to perform a medication-abortion using the off-label protocol for the preservation of the life or health of the mother.” New regulations for abortion-inducing drugs are set to kick in at midnight, except in cases when women have medical conditions that can make surgical abortion “extremely difficult or impossible,” according to the ruling.

[...]

Abbott filed the appeal about an hour after the ruling was made public Monday afternoon.

That he had it all ready to go tells you everything.

"The court upheld part of the law and enjoined part of the law," Abbott spokesman Lauren Bean said in a statement. "The State has already appealed the court’s ruling. We appreciate the trial court’s attention in this matter. As everyone – including the trial court judge – has acknowledged, this is a matter that will ultimately be resolved by the appellate courts or the U.S. Supreme Court."

Thanks, Captain Obvious Bean.  Now to the judge, GW Bush appointee Yeakel.  The excerpt below is from the second link at the top.

An equally important section of Yeakel’s opinion, however, offers less welcome news for women seeking abortions. In brief, the Food and Drug Administration approved a particular method of terminating a pregnancy via medication in 2000. Since then, doctors developed an alternative method that is endorsed by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), but has not yet been approved by the FDA. This alternative method requires lower doses than the FDA-approved method, and it also enables the woman to make fewer visits to the doctor’s office. Notably, because one of the drugs used in medical abortions “triggers almost immediate bleeding and cramping,” the alternative method allows women to administer the drugs at home — rather than have to undergo the uncomfort caused by the drugs in an unfamiliar clinical setting.

Texas’ law permits doctors to prescribe the reduced doses used by the alternative method, but Yeakel reads the Texas law to “not allow the physician to follow the administration or route portions of the off-label protocol.” Among other things, this forces women into a cold clinical setting while they are enduring the effects of the abortion drugs.

Judge Yeakel, however, finds nothing constitutionally wrong with Texas forcing women to endure such unnecessary hardship in order to obtain an abortion. Quoting the Supreme Court’s decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, Yeakel holds that “the incidental effect of making it more difficult or more expensive to procure an abortion cannot be enough to invalidate” the Texas law. When “reasonable alternative procedure[s]” are available, a state’s decision to ban one particular procedure is not unconstitutional, even if that is the least painful, least time-consuming or least demeaning procedure available to the woman. “Individuals do not have a constitutional right to a preferred medical option, so long as a safe, medically accepted, and actual alternative exists.”

So the upshot of Yeakel’s opinion is that Texas cannot ban abortion. Nor can they create entire swaths of their state where abortions are nearly impossible to obtain. But they can effectively punish women by making them endure unnecessary pain, hardship or invasiveness before they can exercise their right to choose. Should Yeakel’s decision stand, it is practically an invitation for lawmakers to impose needless pain on women seeking abortions.

This law is traveling a path to the SCOTUS, where they may strike down some of the freedoms granted in Roe v. Wade forty years ago.  That's what conservatives have been praying for all along.

But there's a long way to go before this legislation meets its fate and makes its history.  In the meantime, Texas voters -- along with those in the other states who suffer under Republican state governance -- can get started turning back the tide by voting out these goddamned Austin Republican misogynists in 2014.

(T)he Democrats must also begin to overcome GOP dominance of the state legislatures. 2020 is the crucial date. If the Democrats fail to retake a substantial number of these state chambers by then, the Republicans will be able to continue the 2011 gerrymandering in 2021. We can likely expect far more state conservative legislation against voting rights, reproductive rights, unions and more. Given the Tea Party's influence within the GOP and its many billionaire backers, gridlock could also continue in Congress — even if the Democrats win every presidential election or the Senate for years to come.

And it's going take a lot more people than this to get it done.

Update: Dahlia Lithwick, the country's pre-eminent Supreme Court observer IMO, points out that the ruling gives a victory to pro-choicers and a even minor one to pro-lifers, but settles nothing.  And disregard completely the spin of political consultants like these -- and the media that consults them, and the word-parsing that precedes and follows -- which is emanating like gas from a swamp.

Update (10/31): Happy Halloween...

In its 20-page ruling, the appeals court panel acknowledged that the provision "may increase the cost of accessing an abortion provider and decrease the number of physicians available to perform abortions." However, the panel said that the U.S. Supreme Court has held that having "the incidental effect of making it more difficult or more expensive to procure an abortion cannot be enough to invalidate" a law that serves a valid purpose, "one not designed to strike at the right itself."

Harris County's swollen EV turnout

Early voting totals remain at historically high levels.  Whether this portends a wave election will have to wait for election day turnout, as both Kuff and Greg in the comments suggest that it's not liable to be as big as it may seem.  A bit from the end of that post is worth repeating.

Note the huge shift in 2008 to majority early voting, which has continued in the two subsequent elections. You may recall that this shift was perceived at the time to be a portent of things to come, which led to some irrationally exuberant predictions about final turnout. Turnout was up from the previous Presidential election, but not nearly as much as many of us thought it would be. The vast majority of the early voters were the old reliables, and the net effect was that by Election Day itself, we’d run short of people who still needed to vote.

Do I know this for sure? No, of course not. I do expect turnout will be up from 2011, but I don’t believe we’re seeing anything unexpected. One other piece of evidence I have for this belief comes from the analyses that Kyle Johnston does on the early vote rosters. Here’s the 2009 version, and the version from the first five days of 2013 EV. The first thing that stands out to me is that in 2009, 92% of the early vote overall was cast by people who had voted in at least 2 of the last 3 municipal election. For the first five EV days of 2013, it’s 90%. In other words, it’s the old reliables voting. They’re just voting earlier.

... Other useful tidbits from Johnston’s analysis is that so far about 70% of the total Harris County vote has come from City of Houston voters; in 2009, the figure was 72% for all early votes. In other words, non-Houston voting is up a smidge, perhaps thanks to the Astrodome, but not much. The racial breakdown of the vote has some people talking about runoff prospects in the Mayor’s race. I’ll just say that unlike city/county and past voting history, racial data is not directly available but must be derived inferentially. Doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate, just inexact.

As for Johnston, he might be accurate about the rest, but I just can't place any faith in his analysis -- in fact I wouldn't even call it that -- of guessing voters' ethnicity based on name.

Projecting that, and then their voting inclination, is frankly nothing but a SWAG.  Anecdotally there's all kinds of evidence that easily refutes the premise; my brother Neil Aquino is no Latino and city council candidate David Robinson isn't quite African American, for two examples.  My wife is Cuban but nothing about her name gives that away.  But the main problem with his data, as Johnston himself notes, is that redistricting changed ... well, pretty much everything.

Today, as early polls opened on the 12-hour cycle for the final week, we finally began to see the far-flung suburban areas (read: Republican) start to pick up the pace.  I am much more comfortable projecting voting patterns based on geography than anything else.

Voting in this year's municipal election is up, it may be way up, and whether that is behavior modification or something else is a question we'll just have to wait until the end of Election Day to answer.  The real news is that the photo ID requirement has possibly energized early turnout, and for that we may very well have Greg Abbott and the rest of the GOP to thank.

What a kick in the head that will be if it goes against them.