Wednesday, October 07, 2020

1600 PA Update: "It's Biden's to Lose."


So sayeth Beto O'Rourke, a week ago (specifically, about Texas).  Three weeks ago, in this Sunday Funnies collection ...


And two weeks ago, me.

As surely as the seasons change from summer to fall and the Gulf clears itself of tropical disturbances; as certainly as 2020's hurricanes went from boys and girls to non-binary; and as absolutely as there will be a new Justice seated before November 3rd, will President Donald Trump be "re-elected", in the most marginal definition of the word.

So while summer is still changing to fall and Judge Barrett is going to be Justice Barrett in due course -- more on that in a minute -- I am here to tell ya that I think I'm going to get the other two calls wrong (damn you, Hurricane Delta).  Beto's right about one thing; Texas stays red in the Electoral College, also the Senate, but it looks very good for blue Congress critters and a statehouse flip.

I went on there to challenge Ds to "prove me wrong", because "I really (didn't) want to be right".  And while Democratic voters still need to finish, everything -- and I mean everything -- is breaking their way to blow Trump out of the White House in 27 days.  Shockingly but unsurprisingly, Biden is intent on choking it away.

Let us count the ways:



Recent national polls showing Sleepy Joe with a 16-point lead are to be discounted.  We don't elect presidents via popular vote (see: Clinton, Hillary).  Also, Nate Silver's outfit referenced above is hedging because of his last presidential polling nightmare in 2016, as we all should recall.  But the fact is that Biden has never trailed in EC projections since the conventions; last week's debate debacle helped him a lot, and so has Trump's dueling Mussolini/Evita impressions upon talking his way out of Walter Reed less than a week after catching COVID.

None of these things swayed my personal flip-flop, though.  This did.


So he's given up.  Quit.  Cut and run.  He's decided -- or been convinced by the collapsing polls -- that his legacy will be three SCOTUS Justices and shifting the Court to the right for a generation, maybe two, instead of a second term.

He can't be perceived to be conceding the election, of course, and if it's closer than the polling says then he's got enough Justices to push him back into the White House, a la Bush v. Gore.

So I don't consider this a fatal error so much as a desperation play -- not a 3-D chess move -- on the part of his campaign advisors.  A Hail Mary to Amy Barrett (and Kavanaugh and Gorsuch and Alito and Thomas).  Once in a while those work, you know.  Anyway ...


I suppose some of you Bidenites need a receipt or two.


And Bernie Sanders is out on the hustings campaigning for this guy.


Those texts asking me to vote for Joe?  Keep 'em comin'.

Biden doesn't even want to debate Covita next week.  What a spectacular display of weakness.


So if you want options ... you have them.


With respect to those who read this blog who are voting outside of Texas:


Update: No veep preview.  Not watching but will be Tweeting, and some thoughts about it tomorrow, along with a preview of this:

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