Texas results only slightly surprising

This is the kind of scrum I avoided last Thursday evening, and not just because Ted Cruz is at the epicenter.

We won't go long or big here, as Charles Kuffner has posted the best of this work and you have the AP helping the Chronicle with the numbers.

-- Cruz emerged as the only option to Trumpf for the GOP nomination.  His big win here and in Oklahoma leaves him as the last man standing against a perceived November apocalypse, and the Pachyderms are besides themselves with anguish about it.

In the words of Billy Joel: go on, cry in your coffee but don't come bitchin' to me.

-- Hillary Clinton won big in Texas and everywhere else she expected to, with Massachusetts qualifying as a minor upset for her.  Bernie Sanders won enough states -- Colorado, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and his front-door Vermont -- to justifying staying in the race a while longer.  There's a Democratic debate this Sunday evening in Flint, Michigan (and the GOPers face off tomorrow night; it's a homecoming for Dr. Ben Carson).  Michigan votes on Tuesday March 8, a week from yesterday.  If Sanders can win the Wolverine State, he has justification to fight on to Super Tuesday II on March 15.  Black voters hold his fate.

In review of some of the contested races around the state and county...

-- The Texas Railroad Commission candidates who qualified for their primary runoff elections on May 24th are good ol' Grady Yarbrough (D), Cody Garrett (D), Wayne Christian (R), and Gary Gates (R).  Lon Burnham, the most qualified and most progressive, finished third in a weak field.  Kuff thinks it's all about the money he didn't raise, but IMO Burnham shouldn't have aligned himself with Wendy Davis and Bill White.  Texas Democratic voters always go for the easiest -- and least qualified -- name in this race for some ignorant reason.

Your best option in November is Martina Salinas.

-- There will be a statehouse runoff in HD-139 (incumbent Sylvester Turner is now mayor of Houston) and perceived best candidate Randy Bates missed it.  He'll watch Kimberly Willis and former city council member Jarvis Johnson go at it at the end of May.  Convicted ambulance chaser Rep. Ron Reynolds was returned to Austin will have to face Angelique Bartholomew in May, with Steve Brown well behind, in the night's SMDH result.

Speaker Joe Straus survived his primary and his right-hand man (not right enough for Midland oilman Tim Dunn, Empower Texas, and the Anybody but Straus Caucus, but that's a digression) Byron Cook did likewise.  We can count these as wins for the good guys, folks.  In bad news for the speaker, Rep. Debbie "Public Education is the Pit of Hell" Riddle was upset in her primary.  Her successor is probably worse, however, especially since she called Riddle part of the 'liberal establishment'.

Gilberto Hinojosa's daughter won the Democratic primary to succeed the retiring Elliot Naishtat, the most liberal Texas House representative after Burnham was defeated a couple of years ago.  This is probably the worst thing that Austin Democrats could have done, choosing nepotism over good governance.  If Noah Horwitz supports them -- he's been a lackey for the Hinojosas for some time now -- you can bet she's a lousy Clinton-wing Democrat.  Nothing personifies the creeping conservative failings of the Texas Democratic Party more than this race.

San Antonio Dems also re-elected the most conservative option in their state Senate tilt.  See you down the round, TMF.

-- Ed Gonzalez will run off with Jerome Moore for Harris County sheriff.  Kim Ogg vanquished Morris Overstreet and Lloyd Oliver in the Harris County DA's contest without a runoff, and Ann Harris Bennett swamped Brandon Dudley for tax assessor/collector/voter registrar in a poor showing for challengers in those last two races.  The black turnout dynamic that propelled Hillary Clinton's big wins in Texas, throughout the South, and well down the ballot here was nowhere to be seen in the DA's race.  Ogg had a superior ground game while Overstreet apparently relied on George Soros' mailers.  Money ain't everything, y'all.

Likewise, Adrian Garcia's bad loss and Gonzalez's failing to clear a runoff signal lame turnout for Harris County Latin@s.  Only a Spanish surname paired with Clinton's -- be it Castro or Perez or some other -- saves downballot Texas Dems in November.

-- Harris County judicial races have a few runoffs.  Just a couple I'll mention today: craptastic Judge Elaine Palmer got pushed into a showdown with Joann Storey in the 215th District Court race.  And Democrat-turned-Republican Nile Copeland didn't come close in his bid for the 178th, finishing third with less than 19% of the vote.

Somebody picked the wrong year to start sniffing glue.

Super Tuesday Toons and updates

"Turnout sharply up for Republicans in Harris County; down for Democrats"

After Juan Williams Criticizes Trump’s KKK Comments, Fox Hosts Freak Out

“I don’t think you can excuse this kind of behavior where you just conveniently close your eyes,” Williams, who is African American, said. “In this moment, right before the SEC primary, he finds it convenient not to disavow.” 

“It has particular power because so much of the anger that Donald Trump is talking about giving voice to is really anger in sort of a white populist movement,” Williams continued. 

Before he even finished speaking, Williams was upbraided by his four white co-hosts.
“He disavowed him on Twitter!” Eric Bolling protested. 

“Juan, you are not paying attention to the facts,” Kimberly Guilfoyle said. 

The longest lecture came from Melissa Frances, who blamed the media for badgering Trump. “Now he’s been badgered repeatedly on the same front,” she said. “At the beginning of that interview we saw he said ‘I don’t support David Duke. No, no, no.’ And they kept asking him the question until they said something that can kind of be used.”

"Marco Rubio can still beat Trump, no matter what happens on Super Tuesday"

No, I don't believe so.  Just a feeling.

-- This Dump Hillary anti-establishment uprising is too little, too late.

-- Though there remain hidden time-bomblets in her email affair.

The State Department said that although there were no additional "top secret" upgrades in (yesterday)'s release, two emails had to be withheld. One was an exchange with President Obama, which is sealed until a later date under rules governing presidential records, and the other was an unclassified message that was withheld at the request of a law enforcement agency. The State Department would not comment further on the content of that message. 

-- Still... can she deal Sanders the coup d'grace today?  I think he staggers on another week at least; he raised over $40 million this month from his small donor base, six of it yesterday.

-- Sanders supporters are already discussing openly on Democratic fora (it used to be verboten and grounds for banishment at the one linked) their intentions of going Green in November.

-- Here are the best video snippets of yesterday's choke-slam of a Time photographer by (allegedly) a Secret Service agent at a Trump rally.

-- The latest Clinton VP chatter has Labor Secretary Tom Perez as a legitimate candidate.

More after the polls close... as soon as #FireStanStanart gets the EV up.

A few things to watch for on Election Day

-- Which Democrat gets to take on Harris County Republican DA Devon Anderson in November: Lloyd "homosexuals and lesbians have hijacked the Democratic Party" Oliver, Kim Ogg, or Morris "George Soros' money" Overstreet?

-- Will it be Brandon Dudley for Harris County tax assessor/collector/voter registrar in the Democratic primary ... or Ann Harris Bennett?

-- Can Adrian Garcia pull off the upset in CD-29 against Gene Green?  If he can't, is it a walk or a close shave for the longtime incumbent?  If it's narrow, does Garcia (or some other Latin@) start licking their chops for 2018?

-- Are either Kevin Brady or Louie Gohmert seriously in danger of getting primaried out?

-- Which two of these four -- Randy Bates, Jerry Ford Jr., Jarvis Johnson, Kimberly Willis -- is moving to an April runoff to replace Sylvester Turner in the Texas House?  Is the disgraced Rep. Ron Reynolds going to be bumped off by Steve Brown or Angelique Bartholomew or Chris Henderson?  Will there be a runoff (probably)?  Who's going to make it?

-- Do San Antonio Democrats give the fighting progressive, Trey Martinez Fischer, or the Republican-leaning Democrat, Jose' Menendez, a full term in the Texas Senate?  Chris Hooks says the party needs both.  More on Texas legislative races across the state from the TexTrib.

-- My selections were offered at the start of early voting and can be found here.

-- With fourteen states, one territory, and Democrats Abroad caucusing or holding their presidential primaries tomorrow... is it curtains for Bernie Sanders, or does he fight on?

How will the GOP establishment feel about the election returns tomorrow night?

-- Will Ted Cruz win big enough in Texas to slow Trump's roll?  What's the over-under on his margin of victory?  Five points?  Six points?  Ten points?  That will be the spin.

Quoting myself, again ...

The bantamweight Rubio and the middleweight Cruz did an effective job of pummeling the Oompa Loompa-colored pinata hanging between them. Alternately screwing his face into a tight grimace and unleashing his regularly-scheduled torrent of insults, with a reeling Wolf Blitzer having lost control of the affair in the early rounds, Trump landed no counter-punches to speak of. 

But will it matter once we see the returns roll in Tuesday night?

Great minds ...

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is ready to rumble for November as it brings you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff examines Ken Paxton's latest appeal of his fraud charges.

Nonsequiteuse saw everyone else getting in on the open letter game, and figured hey, I can write an open letter, too!

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme wants to know what McAllen has to fear from their auditor?

Socratic Gadfly, using someone else's opinion piece, explained why this year -- as in previous elections this century -- he won't be "enabling" the Democratic Party in the presidential race.

The GOP debate in Houston made room for a lowly progressive blogger, and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs was a first-hand witness to the culinary carnage.

Bay Area Houston and Texas Leftist also had news and views of the Republican debate at the U of H ahead of the event.

jobsanger graphs low Democratic voter turnout ... and blames it on Bernie Sanders.

Dos Centavos wonders if Texas Latinos are splitting between Hillary and Bernie.

Egberto Willies has the video of Ted Cruz accusing Donald Trump of mafia connections.

The Lewisville Texan Journal reports that the gas lease auction for Lake Lewisville may not be legal.

Neil at All People Have Value said that kindness, patience and empathy are forms of resistance in this society. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

================================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Russ Tidwell figures that the presidential election and the 2021 redistricting effort will put an end to gridlock one way or another, Juanita Jean looks to the last contentious presidential primary for context on this year's, and Dan Solomon finds another example of Republican politicians getting slapped for using a song without permission for campaign purposes.

Trailblazers takes note of the single political group funded by one donor that has poured over a million dollars into Texas House races to oppose Speaker Joe Straus. And Texas Vox sees rideshare competitors Uber and Lyft throwing lots of money into Austin political contests.

Chris Hooks at the Texas Observer reviews the state Senate race in San Antonio between Trey Martinez Fischer and Jose' Menendez.

Grits for Breakfast details the data on arrests in Texas: most are for pot, and most of the charges get dismissed.

CultureMap Houston lists the hassle-free ways to get to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo.

Lone Star Q is following the DISD sports transgender ban, which is being both lied about and ignored by officials there.

Better Texas Blog adds up the tax revenues that undocumented immigrants provide.

BOR points out that the cost of implementing campus carry are falling on students and their families.

The Texas Election Law Blog calls the Court of Criminal Appeals "soft on crime" for letting Rick Perry off the hook.

The Lunch Tray dissects the socioeconomics of picky eating.

Pages of Victory says, "Don't force it; get a bigger hammer".

The Alliance encourages voters to support Jessica Farrar in HD-148, especially in light of her opponent’s intentionally deceptive and hateful, anti-gay mailers.

I hate to say I told you so, but ...

... I told you so, last summer, before the Independence Day holiday and a couple of weeks before anybody had heard the words "Black Lives Matter".

So while neither her convincing victory nor the associated demographic splits surprise me, what has been demonstrated in South Carolina (and will likely be in Texas next Tuesday evening, and several other southern states) is that Democratic voters have made up their minds, and did so long ago.  Sanders' core message (some would incorrectly say his single issue) was even transferred onto Clinton in the Palmetto State.

Large crowds at rallies and marches are, alas, not the same as voting.

Clinton supporters on social media have toned down the gloating to some degree, but my humble O is that reconciliation between the winner and the loser's campaigns isn't going to happen to the extent that Team Hillary may be hoping.  Then again, maybe they're not hoping that at all.

When (a Sanders volunteer in SC) finally finds someone willing to talk to her about the presidential race, it's an elderly man named Joel. "I'll be honest with you, I already made my decision," he said. "I voted for Kasich last week, because I'm so anti-Trump." (South Carolina has an open primary system, meaning that voters can choose which of the two party's primaries to vote in.) 

A Democrat, Joel said that he has a "lot in common" with Sanders, and that as a younger man his political views were further to the left. He told (her) that he likes Clinton's foreign policy experience, but there's a "trust factor." "I agree!" (the Sanders vol) explained. 

After we bid farewell to Joel and get back into the Prius, I asked (her) if she'll support Clinton if she's the Democratic nominee. "Hell no," she said. "Even if Clinton is running against Trump?" I pressed. "No!" she repeats. "I'll vote for Jill Stein!"

Clinton is already bleeding progressive support, and further antagonism of that bloc by her network is not going to cauterize the wounds.  Neither will using a "SCOTUS" cudgel to beat them onto the bandwagon.  But since this "support" isn't translating to votes, is it possible that Clinton's crew thinks they can win without them?

Repeating myself:

While Bush v. Gore was still winding its way to a legal conclusion in 2000, Jim Hightower wrote that 308,000 registered Florida Democrats voted for George W. Bush in (and some people still blame Ralph Nader).  Those Sunshine State Blues -- 191,000 of whom were self-described "liberals" -- must not have gotten Barbra Streisand's memo that year.

Does repeating 2000's mistakes seem like the definition of insanity to you?  Because it does to me.

The only rationale I can get to is that Clinton's 2016 PUMAs think they can recruit enough GOP voters who can't stand Trump to make up for what they will lose from the left wing of the Democratic Party.  That seems like a very dangerous strategy.

While Sanders' fate was apparent to me eight months ago, the future for a Hillary versus Trump matchup is much less clear.  A Ted Cruz victory in Texas in two days -- perhaps by a lot -- shakes up the Etch a Sketch.  And Team Rubio is counting on that split between the dueling Demagogue Caucuses to continue, as he can make hay with the Not Trump and Not Cruz Republicans who think he's brilliant (really, that's what I have read them write), and by asserting that the Democrats are afraid to run against him (he's pushing this line in Houston teevee ads airing this morning).

Mitch McConnell thinks Trump is not only a sure thing but radioactive for the GOP, and if he is correct then a lot of money that would have otherwise gone to the presidential candidate will flow into Senate races, strengthening the hands of Republicans clinging to the majority in that body.

According to the New York Times, McConnell is assuring Senate candidates running for reelection that they should feel free to run ads against Trump if they feel he is hurting their own campaigns. According to senators attending private lunches with the Majority Leader, McConnell is taking the approach that Trump will lose badly in the general election and that senators should sell themselves as a bulwark against a Hillary Clinton presidency. 

Pointing out that he still won easily when President Bill Clinton was reelected, McConnell reportedly told colleagues that the party will drop Trump “like a hot rock” if he is the nominee. 

News of the party’s preemptive rejection of the potential nominee comes after a luncheon meeting attended by Republican governors and donors in Washington on Feb. 19 where political guru Karl Rove warned that Trump may be unstoppable for the GOP — and that his nomination could destroy other Republican candidate’s chances in November. 

According to people who attended a private presentation hosted by the conservative billionaires Charles G. and David H. Koch,  Trump’s record was deemed utterly unacceptable, causing high profile donors to hold back on donations out of fear it will be money that will be wasted.

So a worst-case scenario for Democrats is that turnout for their standard-bearer remains unenthused and flaccid.  Even in Harris County, usually reliably blue in presidential years, is seeing a 60-40 split R to D with early voting in the can.  That could translate into a Trump defeat of Clinton, a Republican Senate that still holds a bare majority after November, and a status quo, red rubberstamp House of Representatives.  And a whole lot of Clintonoids blaming Sandernistas for it.

If Clinton wins the presidency and the Democrats can capture the Senate, we will have circumstances not far removed from where they were in 2010, when Obama called the Congressional races a shellacking and the GOP first won the House and then gerrymandered their way into permanent control of it.  In 2012, when Democrats held on to the Senate but with a 55-45 majority, the Republicans filibustered everything, rewarding us with more hindrances to governing.  But that wasn't enough to get Democrats to vote in 2014, and we saw Shellacking, the Sequel in the wake of historically low midyear turnout, which allowed the GOP to take back the Senate ... producing even more unprecedented obstruction.

So as it always does, the answers turn on who and how many turn out to vote in 2016.  Will Democrats who supported Bernie cross over to Trump, fall in line for Clinton, vote for the actual progressive woman running for president, or do something dumb like stay home or write in Sanders?  Will Republicans nominate Trump and then vote for Hillary, as Houston council member Paul Kubosh claims he has heard?  Will turnout ratios at 2-1 for the GOP result in a downballot wave washing Team Blue out to sea?  And if that happens in a presidential year, how much worse can it get two years from now?

For somebody who's predicted things pretty well up to this point, I have to say that I don't have a clue about how 2016 is going to go.

Sunday Funnies

(Click it to bigot-- errr, I mean big it)

Union Leader publisher: Christie told me he would not endorse Trump

"So I sent a message off to Gov. Christie and he called me right back and I told him what I'd heard, and he said 'No, no, I would never do that,'" McQuaid recalled. "[Christie] told me to tell the other guy to 'take his head out of his ass' for saying he would support Trump."