Super Sunday Funnies

Scattershooting on the day after Texas Muslim Day

-- That went just about as well as anyone could have expected.  When a homeless woman from Michigan goes "on the road" to Austin to crash a peaceful rally, and doesn't get arrested, then you're excused in believing we've crossed another dangerous line here in Deep-In-The-Hearta.  What do you suppose would have happened if a black guy had grabbed the mic at an Open Carry protest?  What if a pro-choice activist had interrupted the pro-forced birth gathering on the other side of the Capitol last Saturday, who themselves were counter-protesting the anniversary of Roe v. Wade?

I'd rather just ignore the state representative who demanded visitors to her office pledge allegiance to the Israeli flag, if it's all the same to y'all.

That's not Lake Travis, that's the Rubicon.

Update: Christine Weick -- the angry white woman outside the Capitol yesterday -- is stretching her fifteen minutes of fame to the limit, now challenging Franklin Graham to take over a mosque.

-- This is Texas, goddammit, where the teachers have Glocks but we hide the science textbooks.  Our Republicans aren't snuffing the canaries in the coal mines with their gas; they're the fucking bats.  Shitting on everything as they swarm out of their caves.

-- Our beloved Texas, where we never shook until we got fracked.

North Texas never felt an earthquake until 2008, but since then the United States Geological Survey has recorded more than one hundred, concentrated in areas of oil and gas extraction from shale by hydraulic fracturing—fracking.

Now the USGS will raise the official earthquake risk level in Texas. The new assessment will appear on the government group's seismic hazard map, which influences building codes, public policy and insurance for homes and other buildings across the country, said Mark Petersen, national coordinator of the earthquake hazards program.

"Because of increased rates of earthquakes in Texas, the hazard is higher than it was previously," Petersen said. "This is a new thing that we want to start accounting for, these potentially induced earthquakes."

If you're a city, you can't pass a law against it.  Only the state government can do that, and they laugh at your attempts to stifle their oil buddies' waya life.  And if the feds would stop telling us how to spend the Medicaid billions we're leaving on the table, maybe we'd take the money.

-- Texas, our Texas, all hail the mighty state, where we must man the ramparts and barricades against the twin terrors of immigrant children and black people voting without ID.  We've evolved.  I mean, this is what intelligent design looks like.

So much love for fetuses, none for the babies already born.  You see, it transforms into a parasite on the hard-working, job-creating, property-owning upper class once it leaves the host.  Open carry coming soon, your all-season hunting license without having to purchase or even qualify for a license, and no bag limits.  Just be sure you're set to full auto and spray widely, before a good guy with a gun can pull his or hers.

One potential worthwhile outcome is that if every Texan is walking around armed, visible or not, we can do away with the police.  You know, save a bunch of money.  Oh wait, maybe we haven't thought that all the way through.  Like always.

Mutha. Fuggin. Texas.  The incubator of the best, most conservative government money can buy.

Paxton skates

Likely continues to do so, with a little help from his friends.

The Travis County district attorney’s office has concluded its investigation into securities law violations by Attorney General Ken Paxton without filing charges.

An investigation by the agency’s Public Integrity Unit determined that Travis County lacked jurisdiction over the Paxton allegations, District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg said Thursday.

“Any conduct that might constitute an offense occurred outside of Travis County, and venue for any further investigation would be in the county where the conduct occurred,” Lehmberg said in a statement.

Poor Lehmberg just couldn't stomach any more controversy.  She's been cowed by the spin applied from Rick Perry's legal team and the governor's supporters reacting to his abuse of office indictments, start to (eventual) finish.  A classic conservative display of blaming the victim.

Lehmberg’s office referred the case to prosecutors in Collin and Dallas counties, she added.

Care to guess how that's going to go?

Collin County District Attorney Greg Willis, a Republican, is a longtime friend of Paxton. Bill Dobiyanski, the first assistant district attorney under Willis and chief of the felony trial division in Collin County, declined to say whether the office would investigate the matter.

Dallas County District Attorney Susan Hawk has issued a statement indicating her office has no avenue to pursue a case against Paxton, if one were warranted.

She said that after a discussion with Gregg Cox, the head of Travis County special prosecutions, “at this time, we are not aware of having venue over any alleged crimes committed in Dallas County by Attorney General Ken Paxton.”

With the Public Integrity Unit gutted by the Lege's new budget and to be eventually relocated out of Travis County, there will be no watchdog left on the unitary rule of the Grand Old Party in Texas.  Not that there was all that much before.  When the appeals court judges are also bought and paid for, you can't even get a conviction against Tom DeLay for money laundering to stick.

This is what Texans voted for last November, however (and in every midterm election for at least the past twelve years).  This is also what the Texans who were too busy/lazy/stupid to vote also voted for, whether or not they will ever figure that out.

BakerBlog's Bob Stein on the Houston mayoral race

This is worth dissecting.

There are six candidates (former Democratic congressman Chris Bell; councilman Stephen Costello; Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia; former Kemah mayor Bill King; councilman Oliver Pennington; state Rep. Sylvester Turner) who currently hold or recently held elective office. A seventh candidate, Ben Hall, has run recently for mayor and has some additional recognition as a former city attorney. These candidates have a record of electoral success in the city as well as a record of significant campaign fund raising. 

He handicapped them much the same way I did week before last.  With regard to the money end of things, let's overlook the fact that Costello and Hall and King can write themselves a check for whatever they need, which technically isn't 'raising funds'.  And that Turner needs to survive Bell's lawsuit transferring his million bucks from his legislative bank account to a municipal one.  And that Garcia can't move his county coffers around at all.  If you evaluate viability on the basis of how much money somebody has, then you don't have a democracy, you have a plutocracy.  If you begin with the premise that the more money a candidate can spend, the more likely they are to get elected, then you have devalued principle, good governance, and the ideological issues that should be the primary determinant of how one should cast their ballot.  In other words, you simply aren't a fan of republican democracy.

I won't be evaluating mayoral candidates competing for my vote using that measurement.  I want to know what their ideas for managing the city are, not how fat their wallet is.  So while Stein is tossing everybody running who doesn't have electoral experience and putting a star beside the names of those who are profligate fundraisers, where does that leave perhaps the most liberal candidate -- Marty McVey -- who can pay his own way, or the most conservative -- CM Jack Christie -- who can't?  And the rest who meet neither criteria?  Why, on the outside looking in.

Too bad for them... and too bad for those of us who thought the race might turn on the issues, too.

The best financed candidates and those who have effective organizations able to identify and turn out their loyal and likely voters will most likely move forward to the runoff. It also seems unlikely that issues or partisanship will be critical factors in the general election — though this should change in the runoff, depending on which two candidates move forward. I would expect the candidates in the general election to run campaigns directed at frequent and targeted voter contacts, using traditional door-to-door canvassing, extensive social media and very personalized appeals to voters from the candidates. I don’t see a significant incentive for candidates to attack each other in the general election, as this might detract from their efforts to mobilize their base and worse, risk losing supporters in the runoff, should they advance.

Are you enthused yet?  This is going to be a milquetoast election if Stein is right.

Thankfully, he's probably wrong.

From conservatives, it's going to be all about those hellbound transsexuals using the bathrooms where your children will be assaulted (when it's not bitching about potholes in the roads, anyway) and tsk-tsking those hateful bigots from the center-left in response.  There will be plenty of issues, just not the ones we ought to be talking about.  And to Stein's credit, he's at least correct that it won't goose turnout much, if at all.  So then, twenty million dollars-plus spent on campaign advisers, mailers, and tv commercials for a runoff election in December that resets everything.  That's some high-priced sound and fury signifying nothing.

Candidate-wise, Stein has some breakdowns for the six perceived frontrunners, but let's focus on his comments about Adrian Garcia.

Garcia could have broad appeal to several constituencies of likely voters, i.e., Hispanics and Democrats. In addition, he has won two countywide elections for sheriff, winning significant (12 percent) crossover support from Republican voters, although this success appears to be limited to non-city portions of the county. He did not garner a substantial crossover vote in Kingwood, Clear Lake and Westside precincts inside the city.

For Garcia, the key questions are whether he can establish himself as the “Democrat” candidate for mayor and mobilize Hispanic voters. His efforts to establish himself as the prime Democrat in the race maybe thwarted by Bell’s efforts to make the same claim. In addition, Garcia’s only tepid support of the countywide candidates in 2014, most notably Kim Ogg, Democrat for district attorney, may come back to haunt. Moreover, there is evidence that younger Hispanic voters are not motivated by partisan candidate appeals — witness their poor performance for the Democratic ticket in 2014 (i.e., pre- and post-election surveys suggest 45 percent of 18-44 year old Hispanic voters balloted for Greg Abbott while only 34 percent of Hispanic voters over 45 voted for Abbott).

Emphasis mine.  Garcia's success hinges on his ability to turn out all the Latino vote, and depending on that has always been problematic.  If the electorate doesn't agree that it's their time, his campaign is over before it begins.  Anglo Republicans in the 'burbs haven't bought his oddball brand of conservatism previously; no reason to think they will this time around.

Texpatriate's on record with Turner and Pennington making the runoff, which is a fairly conservative bet.  I'm not ready to join him there; I think Bell and Costello and Hall will also have strong efforts.  There's still seven months to the filing deadline; a long time to go before the field settles out.  And this last, with respect to the SCOTUS decision on marriage equality and the HERO trial playing out in the background.

There may be several referenda on the ballot to amend the city charter (e.g., term limits and revenue cap) as well as repeal the recently adopted Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO). A jury trial is underway to determine whether the city erred in rejecting a petition to place the repeal of HERO on the November ballot. Whatever the jury’s decision, it will certainly be appealed. If any of these items are on the November ballot they are certain to change the character and possible outcome of the general election. The HERO amendment has the greater potential for widening the field of candidates with the entry of an anti-HERO candidate. Other candidates, notably Turner, King and Costello, may have trouble with this issue, as many of their core supporters have positions on the ordinance at variance with the candidates’ position.

This is Pennington's primary advantage today: stoking the fear and loathing of the gays among the Republican base.  It could help him in the general election and then backfire on him in the runoff.  We'll just have to watch and see if that is something he -- or someone else -- thinks they can capitalize on.

Scattershooting the political consultants' scorecard

My blog brothers have done the heavy lifting.

-- Via Stace, here's your program.  This is the most important information Houston voters need to know about who might next run the city: who's whispering in the candidate's ear?   Who's telling them to zig instead of zag?  I've heard these people brag about the size of their Rolodexes, declare that's what you're buying when you pay them $10K a month.  What a country, eh?

Just like the Karl Roves and Dave Carneys, these behind-the-scenes players have the most influence.  Take note of who's advising whom, in a paid or unpaid capacity.

With ten candidates in the race for mayor, and a "viable" campaign needing to raise $2 million in order to get 15% of the vote just to make the runoff, ask yourself again why we need so much money sloshing around in our politics.

At those prices, we're not getting anything worth owning.

Update: The Baker Institute says it will take something between 21-23% of less than 200K votes (or about 40,000) for a single mayoral candidate -- two of Turner, Bell, Garcia, Costello, King, or Pennington left to right on your spectrum -- to make the runoff.  Consequently, every campaign will target its own base vote very narrowly, so as not to encourage other bases to show up at the polls.  In other words, low turnout is the winner's friend; suppress everybody's vote but yours.  I'd love to hear how some of those tactics will be executed.  Since Bob Stein and not Mark Jones authored that post, I can at least express a bit more confidence in its various premises.  There's some other data points worth sifting through there for all you inside baseballers.  I'll unpack more of that in my next blog post.

-- Also via Stace, A-Drain Garcia has issued either a caution or an exhortation, depending on whether he's ultimately in or out.

“@CesarRBShow: Cesar si esto sera una posibilidad, la comunidad tendra que votar en numeros historicos. Jovenes y adultos tendran que votar.
— Adrian Garcia (@SheriffGarcia) January 26, 2015

"The community will have to vote in historic numbers".  That's the understatement of the year.

Do you think it makes a Garcia bid more likely or less?  He may already be losing the consultants' race, after all.  I have to say 'less' just on its face, but Stace's response to my question there is a point well taken.  I'm also not listening to the radio shows, can't parse inflection or word usage or read between the lines in Spanish as well as I would like.  So we wait.

-- Charles has the take on state Sen. Don Huffines' bill that essentially nullifies any city ordinance if the state legislature doesn't approve... whether a state law is in place or not.  So a municipality would be prohibited from passing a law banning fracking, or protecting the civil rights of people born LGBT -- or establishing speed limits or fireworks restrictions or noise ordinances or eliminating plastic bags at the supermarket -- if Austin says 'no' or even thinks 'no'.  This from the party that wants judges to defy federal law when marriage equality is finally recognized.  (Roy Moore is just another throwback to the '60's and George Wallace, in case you haven't seen Selma yet.)

The hypocrisy is strong with this one.  And I don't mean just Huffines, either.

-- Obama's attorney general-designate, Loretta Lynch, is a prohibitionist when it comes to weed.  German Lopez at Vox says she's got the "pot is worse than booze" part wrong, and has some data that supports that.

Just for the record, I personally don't care to use it, legal or not.  With my conditions, I only have a couple of drinks a month, and I haven't roasted any herb in over two decades.  (Made me paranoid; was easy to quit.)  But the national trend toward decriminalization/legalization has moved almost as quickly as the marriage equality issue, two remarkable social upheavals that tend to terrify the most extreme of Christian conservatives.

I don't know and wouldn't think that Loretta Lynch is one of those.  But these notions about reefer madness are deeply embedded in the minds of people who prosecute for a living, which suggests it's going to take the next generation to soften the federal resolve in this matter.  And that's unfortunate.  I would have thought that she had greater insight into the legal scourge of these harsh and vindictive drug penalties and the devastating effect they have had on her generation of black men and women.  If she hasn't figured it out by now, she probably isn't going to.

Maybe she can be better on the police abuse cases that need to be addressed; she already has some history in that regard.  She's going to have a short time to make her mark beyond the 'first African American woman' label.

-- Like Sheriff Garcia, Scott Walker didn't finish college either.  I'm not voting for anybody who can't manage that.  This isn't the century where a farmer can pull himself up by his bootstraps and his common sense, move into the city, get a good job with union benefits and retire after forty years with a nice pension.

Oh sure, your geeky kid might quit college when he comes up with an app that makes him a trillionaire.  I just don't want him to run for president, or mayor, or purchase any of the people who do.  If you can't earn a baccalaureate degree and you want to be on the government payroll, then you can read meters or mow a park (I'd rather them not be given a gun and a badge either, but that's another problem).  It's a different world and we don't need under-educated people in charge at any level.  No sheepskin is a dealbreaker for me.

If someone can leverage that perceived effrontery to motivate the vote, more power to them.  Anything that works in that regard would not be an unwelcome development... even if they voted en masse for the least-educated person on their ballot.

At least we'd have some successful voter turnout model to build on.

"Get the panic buttons ready"

I blogged yesterday that I thought Damn Patrick made a huge mistake in declaring himself an opponent of open carry one moment and a squishy supporter the next, and that the gun nuts would respond in a clear voice.  Indeed, I didn't have to wait long.

"There is absolutely no reason for Dan Patrick to be saying these things," said CJ Grisham, a retired Army sergeant who founded the group Open Carry Texas in 2013. "I think this is a cop-out. I think we have a lot of Republicans who ran on lies."

The nuttier the gun goon, the worse it was for the rookie LG.

Patrick's comments Tuesday were seen by many in those groups as a reversal from his campaign promise to "fight for open carry." His remarks went viral on social media, with the leader of one group calling on members to "hit up his phones and social media" to "hit him so hard he eats the words 'lack of support.'"

"I'm coming to his office Thursday. Tell them to get the panic buttons ready," Kory Watkins, the head of Open Carry Tarrant County, posted on Facebook, referring to a rule approved by the House earlier this month allowing lawmakers to bill the state to install panic buttons after Watkins and fellow members from the group confronted Rep. Poncho Nevarez in his Capitol office. The Eagle Pass Democrat now is accompanied by a security detail after he and his family received a slew of threats after the incident, the Austin American-Statesman reported Tuesday.

By Tuesday afternoon, Patrick felt it necessary to take to social media in an attempt to clarify his remarks. On Facebook, he said the question is not whether many residents support open carry, but whether there is "enough support statewide to persuade enough legislators to pass it."

"That is the case with all legislation, no matter the topic," he said.

Well, not with tax cuts or vouchers.  Or resisting Medicaid expansion.  Or hating on the gays.  Or reducing women's preventative health care down to nothing.  But that's a digression.

Patrick is hornier for concealed carry on college campuses than he is open carry, a distinction without a difference to everyone but the most extreme conservative penis-extension fetishist.  Fortunately the guy who does the polls for the Texas Tribune steps up to gunsplain it for us (since Patrick has his thoughts a little jammed).  It seems the lite gov is inexperienced in the handling of firearms.  Or maybe the gavel.

James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said Patrick is trying to maintain a delicate balance between providing leadership while still avoiding the temptation to overtly pressure senators. His recent remarks, Henson added, are unsurprising given the negative press that has swirled around the open carry movement, and by the focus on unlicensed carry, which may not be as palatable to Texans as supporters think.

"It's a function of the fact that the issue has become a little more complicated, and he is adapting to his position as presiding officer rather than a voting member," said Henson, who said open carry legislation went from "a sure thing" to "something that needs to be shepherded" after the confrontation with Nevarez.

"It should not be assumed that as pro-gun as Texas is, that among urban and suburban Republicans, particularly Republican women, that you're going to find support for completely unlicensed open carry," Henson said. "I think he's edging toward caution because it's not clear what bill will move through the process."

Thanks for clearing that up, Jim.  There's a future for you in the NRA's public relations department if the polling gig doesn't work out.

I don't need a poll to determine that most Texans -- not just Republican moms -- aren't happy about seeing people in the grocery store, in the pharmacy, in the mall, and at school ambling around strapped.  It's a terrible idea, one I thought we were all going to have to get used to, but -- with no small amount of amazement -- find myself agreeing with Patrick in these early days of the session.  I'm still doubting he has the strength of his nebulous, waffling convictions to stand up to the Open Carry thugs, but it sure will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  Either the lieutenant governor will be forced to knuckle under or the gun freaks are going to be spitting mad.  Could be very bad for innocent bystanders, no matter which of those is left standing after the smoke clears.

I'd like to pop some corn, but I think I'll put on my flak jacket instead.

Update: Read this from Wonkette.  Just go read it.

Several reveals in Patrick's agenda

We have to take his word at face value -- always a tenuous proposition with the newly-crowned lieutenant governor -- but in this case I don't think he's bullshitting anybody.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Tuesday again emphasized that he will push for significant property tax and business tax cuts this year even in the face of lower oil prices and scaled-back state revenue projections.

“I am not playing small ball on tax relief,” Patrick said. “That is what the people want us to do. We have the capability to do it and we need to do it. People need tax relief.”

No surprise here.  Cutting taxes as oil keeps dropping, as the hedge fund managers keep going short, will IMHO be the biggest mistake this legislature makes.  They're blowing a hole in their budget the size of the Permian Basin, and sooner than later it will be obvious to them.  For all the rest of us, sadly, they will be the last ones to know.  This, however, is a great surprise...

“Open carry is important, but I don’t think there is support in the Legislature to pass it,” Patrick said. “The votes have not been there.” By contrast, he thinks the odds are much better for passage of a bill to allow licensed persons to carry handguns on college campuses. A campus carry bill in the Senate already has 19 co-sponsors, enough to approve the measure.

This is the first negative word I have read about open carry.  It obviously won't make it if Patrick stands against it.  And why he would incur the wrath of the gun nuts by so openly defying them in the session's first weeks is, in a word, puzzling.  I can't decide if this is another giant miscalculation on his part or something else, some machination to drive a different course.  For now I am going to wait and see how this unencumbered message gets interpreted by its recipients.

Vouchers, like tax cuts, contain no ambiguity.

Patrick also said school choice legislation is one of a handful of measures this session that he will throw his weight behind because of its importance to him. “I believe we will pass a school choice bill in the Senate and we have a good chance of passing it in the House,” he said.

In the past, Patrick has supported a proposal to give tax credits to businesses that donate money for scholarships to private and religious schools. The proposal would initially be aimed at lower-income students who attend public schools with low performance ratings.

The lieutenant governor also joined other legislative leaders in predicting that major decisions on school finance will wait until after the Texas Supreme Court has ruled on a lower court decision that overturned the current funding system. The high court is not expected to hear the appeal until the fall, well after the current legislative session has ended.

This leaves a final decision in the hands of the 85th Texas Legislature, convening in 2017.  No doubt to require lower and higher court clearance again, meaning the matter won't be settled until 2018 or '19.  Assuming the judicial branch agrees with the legislative's fixes, of course.

Every time the Lege fails on funding public education in Texas, it pushes the repairs five years into the future.  That's a wonderful legacy they're leaving the children of Texas, isn't it?

More on Patrick's agenda from Texas Leftist and Texas Politics, and still more on the just-released budget from Trail Blazers and the Observer.

Update: Lauren McGaughy at the Chronicle explains open carry's dilemma, and Dan Patrick is revealed as a flip-flopper.  I still don't quite understand why he's against it -- sometimes -- when he's said so often he's for it -- on occasion -- but that's his tea to steep in now.  Maybe someone with OCT can try to nail him down as a firm yes or a no.

A Walker wedge in Iowa

I promised I wouldn't start this early, but the Iowa Freedom Summit this past weekend provided a target-rich environment.  In particular, one emerged as the Corndog State's darling.

Before the Iowa Freedom Summit on Saturday, one Republican activist summed up Gov. Scott Walker’s challenge this way: “He doesn’t make the flashbulbs go off.” But at the end of the marathon day of speeches before conservatives, the Wisconsin governor emerged as the leading light.

There were plenty of well-received speeches during the day from Sen. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson, but it was their home turf. The Freedom Summit, put on by Rep. Steve King and Citizens United, was a gathering of the base of the Republican base. But it was a bit of a SkyMall event—while there were lots of offerings it wasn’t clear if there was a place for the most exotic ones. Donald Trump, for example, may say he’s considering running for president, but it’s as hard to believe that he will be president as it is to understand the need for an Eye of the Dragon Mystical Safe Box.

Walker did the most to help himself politically, elevating his stature as a candidate who might achieve the elusive synthesis of pleasing the party base while also attracting a general election audience.

Not too extreme, not too moderate... the Goldilocks candidate.

Oh, Rand Paul should peel off some of the nuts, as will Ted Cruz (both have their daddy issues, after all), but Mitt and Jeb and Gov. Texass are the ones who should be the most worried.  There's only room for one of them a year from now, and they've each got so much baggage that they won't be allowed to board the plane.  Marco Rubio and Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee and Rick Frothy Mixture and Rick Oops and the rest of the baker's dozen of batshits will prevaricate and obfuscate, hoping to make it to the end of next January with something to brag about.  But there will eventually be one completely psycho goon and one slightly less so left standing, with the Tea Pees frustrated but still in line, and the biggest of money men ready to write still more checks.

That's why Walker will look so good to them once the field has been cleared.  He drives his tractor right down the middle between Romney, Bush, and Christie on the left and Cruz, Perry, Paul, Carson, Huckabee, Santorum and whomever else on the extreme farthest right.  Walker is the keynoter at the Harris County GOP's Lincoln-Reagan dinner in March, here locally.  Perhaps his aide -- the one who recently got out of prison -- will be able to accompany him.

Update: This won't help your cause, Gov. Walker.  You have to keep some semblance of hatred for poor people going at least until the primaries begin.

Update II: Some others noted the hypocrisy of the sudden advocacy of progressive populist issues such as income inequality.  That's also a non-starter in the long run; at this point they're testing themes to see what might resonate.  With their base, this one won't.  But there were some interesting developments with teleprompters, the discarding of which was a topic pioneered by Donald Trump some years ago.

Update III: There's a very good reason Bobby Jindal has not been mentioned until now, and not simply because he skipped the Iowa event for his own.

If I had to pick four finalists after South Carolina next February (and not this one), it would be Bush, Walker, Rand, and Huckster.  And they will battle to the death from there.  But there's still plenty of room in the clown car for somebody to stand up and stick out.

The Weekly Wrangle

Well over two-thirds of the Texas Progressive Alliance thinks this legislative session is off to an inauspicious start as we bring you this week's roundup.

Off the Kuff reviewed the state of play in the mayor's races in Houston and San Antonio.

light seeker at Texas Kaos writes a thought-provoking article about how we can create a more inclusive prosperity and save democracy at the same time. The Great Progressivism Debate, Part 2.

The latest developments in the Houston mayoral contest posted by by PDiddie at Brains and Eggs had Adrian Garcia dropping hints and Chris Bell throwing his hat in.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is tired of Henry Cuellar acting like a crony capitalist Republican. Why can't Cuellar represent his constituents?

WCNews at Eye on Williamson notes the demise of the 2/3rds rule in the Texas Senate. That's what happens when 60 percent of 30 percent "govern" our state.

Guess who's offering middle class tax hikes, asks and answers Egberto Willies.

Neil at All People Have Value got inspired by some concrete at Houston's Intercontinental Airport.

Bluedaze has more on fracking and Texas earthquakes.

Dos Centavos wants to know if Sheriff Adrian Garcia is going to give up that post and run for mayor of Houston, and had some thoughts about the fallout if he does.

Texpate opined about Dan Patrick's Senate committee assignments, and John Coby at Bay Area Houston repeated the prayer that opened the 84th legislative session last week.

jobsanger graphed a poll that showed 26% of Americans believe God picks the winners of football (and baseball and basketball) games.

===================

And here's a few more great blog posts from around Texas.

Prairie Weather observes that, for progressives, there's just not a lot to like about Hillary Clinton.

Speaking of taxes, Socratic Gadfly proposes a Texas goods and services tax.

Grits for Breakfast interviews Jeff Blackburn of the Innocence Project of Texas.

Texas Vox warns about the Regulatory Accountability Act (RAA) that Congress recently passed.

Trail Blazers reported on the immigration protestors that interrupted Rick Perry's speech in Iowa over the weekend.

Political Animals observed that the new first lady of Texas, Cecilia Abbott, headlined the anti-choice rally over the weekend in Austin.  Because of course.

Dwight Silverman documents a year of living without cable.

Concerned Citizens contemplates the meaning of the MLK Day march and the #ReclaimMLK movement.

SciGuy has five can't-miss space events for 2015.

The Lunch Tray concludes that new ag commissioner Sid Miller is being deliberately dishonest in his "cupcake amnesty" proclamations.

Minding Houston explains the current state of mental health funding in Texas.

Lisa Falkenberg pens the second-worst poem ever about the end of Rick Perry's reign as governor.

Sunday Funnies

Houston mayoral developments: Garcia, Bell

-- Adrian Garcia is about to take the plunge.

Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia is showing every indication that he intends to run for Houston mayor this year, sharply increasing his political operations and signaling to close advisers and backers that a campaign may be imminent.  Just last week Garcia said he still was listening to supporters and had not officially committed to a race.

By state law, Garcia would have to resign immediately upon declaring his candidacy.

Local political watchers, however, say recent moves, including hiring new fundraisers and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in 2014 when he was not on the ballot, are evidence he is positioning himself for a campaign.

I'm already on record as opposing him with every fiber of my being.  Oddly, he hasn't blocked me on Twitter yet, as he has others who don't agree with him.  I'll give that another week.

Update: Much more, and greatly revealing, here.  That link should get you over the paywall; please let me know in the comments if it does not.

Update II: Stace, not a hater like me, also has more on Garcia from the H-Town Latino POV.

-- Chris Bell is launching this weekend.

Former Democratic congressman Chris Bell will announce his mayoral bid this Sunday afternoon in Sam Houston Park, becoming the first candidate in a crowded field to officially kick off a run to lead City Hall.

There's some news here worth emphasizing.

As many as a dozen candidates could run for mayor this year, each of whom would likely need to raise $2 million to be competitive. In recent weeks, Bell has hired finance and policy staff, and he has been working with Bill Hyers, who mostly recently advised Bill de Blasio's come-from-behind campaign for mayor in New York, to plot his campaign moves.

Bell's most aggressive step toward a mayoral run has been his lawsuit against the city charging that Rep. Sylvester Turner should not be allowed to transfer much of his $1 million in his officeholder account to Turner's mayoral run. That suit, heard in state district court earlier this month, will likely move to federal court.

Hyers, 38, has been connected to Martin O'Malley's 2016 presidential campaign as 'senior adviser' and AirBNB as 'consultant' in recent months.  A year ago it looked as if he was going to run Charlie Crist's 2014 bid to be Florida's governor, but he dropped that hot potato.  Here's a longer profile of Hyers from the WaPo.  Noteworthy: in 2006, the year Bell ran against the last governor of Texas, Hyers was managing Kirsten Gillibrand's US Senate campaign.  He was the Midwest regional director for Obama in '08, and he's lost a few big races, going back to the 2004 Alaska Senate race of Gov.Tony Knowles, and more recently, Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn's failed re-election bid last year.

Things just got a lot more interesting.

3/5s of Texas Senate unlikely to approve of this blog post

-- Chris Hooks, Texas Observer, on the demise of the two-thirds rule in the state's upper chamber yesterday.  Just go read the whole thing.  The Chron has the fallout.

Democrats strongly opposed the change, arguing it will bring unintended consequences: Instead of 21 votes, just 19 will be required to cancel public hearings on bills, to waive public notice of committee meetings, to waive cost estimates known as "fiscal notes" that are required on bills, even to waive a rule that now requires bills to be held for 24 hours before they come to a vote of the full Senate.

"It will also be easier to waive a rule that bars lobbyists from the (Senate) floor, that allows us to take action against a senator who accepts bribes," said state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin. 

Yep, elections have consequences, and those who sat the last one out are in the canoe going over the falls along with everybody else.  Things will just have to get a whole lot worse before they get better.  If po' folks and women and minorities are willing to let old, white, property-owning slaveholders conservatives do all the voting for everybody, then they get what they deserve.  On some level the whining about "my vote doesn't matter" is just a poor excuse for being too stupid/lazy to pay attention to what's important.

We're waiting for 71% of Texans to figure out they're getting fucked over, and I'm afraid they may not ever do so, no matter how much they get pestered with proof.  Idiocracy is turning into a documentary, and not five centuries in the future but right before our eyes.

If someone who doesn't vote finds themselves in jail because they took out a payday loan they couldn't afford, or finds herself pregnant with no option other than giving birth, or slowly realizes that the school his kids go to is shit, or suddenly notices that everybody at the mall is walking around strapped with a gun, then why should I care about those concerns?  Why should I spend my spare time in the spring and summer and fall calling them and visiting their house, begging them to vote?  Why should I care more about them than they do for themselves, their families, their children?

Let them go play games on their phones or work three jobs at $7 dollars and change an hour or wear a $200 jersey to a $150 football game (that's on the low end, mind you).  They want to take a stand about deflated footballs as if that's the most pressing national issue today?  Go ahead on.  The worm has turned for everybody now.  Who am I to object if they want to dress up in a different costume every weekend and play pretend?  Maybe that is better than focusing on what's going on in the real world, after all.  

It's okay by me if they think they need both a Redbox and a Netflix subscription AND went to see American Sniper last weekend (to cheer).  Come the next war, it won't be any of my kids having to fight it because they have no other career options.  It's a free country, somebody said.  PT Barnum was right about the birth rates of suckers.  It's on them to figure out who's the screwer and the screwee, and which one they are.

On a more humorous note...

--Alan Grayson and his ex are, ah, in the news for all the wrong reasons.

A trial to determine whether U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson's wife committed bigamy when she wed the congressman has been delayed because she required emergency surgery to remove breast implants.

I would have thought that Grayson was more intelligent than to have married someone like that.

-- A bill to ban abortion after twenty weeks in the United States (you know, same as it is now in Texas) failed in Congress last night because some Republicans objected to the rape clause it contained.

But they ran into objections from women and other Republican lawmakers unhappy that the measure limited exemptions for victims of rape or incest to only those who had previously reported those incidents to authorities.

The rebellious lawmakers argued that that would put unfair pressure on women who often feel shame or fear retaliation if they report those assaults.

In a complication GOP leaders were not able to resolve, they then ran into objections from anti-abortion groups and lawmakers when they discussed eliminating the reporting requirements.

See, it's the old "honest rape", "legitimate rape", forcible rape definitions bunching them up.  If a 12-year-old gets pregnant from being raped by her uncle but doesn't tell the police about it, then she cannot get an abortion after 20 weeks.  That's what they got stuck on.  Really.  Some GOPers actually think that's wrong.

It turns on a very simple premise for conservatives: it is God's will that she conceived after being raped, and defiance of God's will not to give birth to that child.  Strangely enough, there seem to be some Republicans elected to Congress in 2014 who disagree.

Elections. Have. Consequences.  I think I can get a supermajority to support that.

The fifth anniversary of Citizens United

Is our democratic republic better off now than it was five years ago?  Most Americans don't think so.

Specifically regarding the Supreme Court’s Citizens United campaign finance decision from 2010, respondents were told:

In response, 80% of Americans opposed the decision and 18% supported it. Although Republicans (72%) were less opposed to the decision than Democrats (82%), it was Independents (84%) most opposed to the decision.

Neither do most of the so-called experts.  In the face of unrelenting negativity about our political system, I usually need a laugh, so let's check in with Al Franken.

I love anniversaries of many occasions. I love birthdays, which are perhaps the most fun kind of anniversary. And every year Franni and my wedding Anniversary is a really, really big deal. When you’ve been married for 39 years, it certainly oughta be.

But the 5th Anniversary of the Supreme Court’s decision in Citizens United is coming up later this month. Corporations, special interest groups, and people like the Koch brothers are probably beside themselves with happiness and preparing their 5 year (wooden?) anniversary gifts (I believe silverware is the modern gift).

But let me tell you — that’s one anniversary I will never, ever celebrate.

Citizens United has taken a place among the worst decisions in the history of the Supreme Court. It created just the kind of opportunity special interest groups and shadowy billionaires had been hoping for – a legal way to funnel tens, even hundreds of millions of dollars into American elections. And in many cases, the actors are completely anonymous.

Consider the numbers. 2008 was the last presidential election year before Citizens United, and outside groups spent about $338 million. In 2012 — the first presidential election of the Citizens United era — outside groups spent a staggering $1.03 billion on elections, and nearly all of that increase came from so-called “independent expenditures.”

The Supreme Court based its decision on the idea that spending by outside groups, including corporations, will not and cannot give rise to corruption — or even to the appearance of corruption. The Court shred decades of established law with that conclusion. And follow-up cases like SpeechNow.org v. FEC and McCutcheon v. FEC have led us even further down the unlimited-corporate-spending rabbit hole.

It’s been five years. In those five years, we’ve seen our elections get nastier, and we’ve watched the American people slide from skepticism of Washington to outright contempt. And I think they have every right to be upset — corporations pour money into politics, and the policy discussion takes a decidedly pro-corporate tilt, while the voices of middle class families are drowned out. If that’s not corruption, or at least the appearance of corruption, then I don’t know what is.

As long as Citizens United remains on the books, any campaign finance reforms will be half-measures. We will be lopping off the leaves of the weed, while its roots sink deeper and deeper.

So how do we get rid of Citizens United? Glad you asked.

1. We can wait until the Supreme Court overturns the case themselves. Which isn’t likely to happen. So let’s forget that.
2. Congress can pass legislation or a constitutional amendment to overturn the effects of Citizens United. This is probably the best option, but it’s also going to take a long time to get through. We’re still working on it. But in the meantime –
3. YOU could remind Congress how hard we’re willing to work to overturn Citizens United. We’ve already got more than 631,600 signatures on our petition. If your name isn’t on there, here’s where you go to add it.

Citizens United has got to go, and we can’t rest until the job’s done. Until then, here’s to hoping that Citizens United doesn’t make it to its candy/iron anniversary.

I like to call the constitutional amendment that would overturn CU the "Political Consultants Retirement Act".  Just think: no more Karl Roves, or Dave Carneys, or Allen Blakemores.  Campos -- and all the rest of these, from Houston to Austin to Washington -- would have to find a real job.

That's what they call a win-win, people.

Of course our broadcast media corporations, without this steady flow of advertising revenue, would be in an even bigger world of hurt than the professional political prostitutes.  Would it be a bad thing, however, if they had to reinvent themselves without breast-augmented, too-tight-top wearing weather forecasters or male model news readers (from six years ago, predating CU and intentional snark aside).  The beefcake and cheesecake and the reporting of it is almost out of control.  If you want higher ratings, station managers, just go ahead and have them read the news in the buff (NSFW, duh).  Dispense with the titillation and slide one seat over to soft porn, for crying out loud.

We'll get better mainstream media if we get the political money out of it as well.  We're now up to win-win-win.  Do you need any more reasons?  How about this news, via Crooks and Liars, about Charles and David Koch and the way they're celebrating the anniversary this weekend.

Four leading Republican presidential prospects are expected to appear this weekend in the California desert before an exclusive gathering of rich conservatives convened by the Koch brothers’ political operation, several sources tell POLITICO.

Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida, and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin received coveted invitations to speak to the vaunted network assembled by the billionaire industrialist megadonors Charles and David Koch, the sources said.

The meeting, set to be held at a Palm Springs hotel, is the annual winter gathering of Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, the nonprofit group that oversees the network of fiscally conservative groups formed with help from the Kochs and their operatives.

None of the White House prospects invited to the meeting this weekend responded to questions about whether they planned to attend and, if so, what they planned to discuss. A spokesman for Freedom Partners declined to comment on the function, which is closed to the press.

No surprise that in addition to the Sheldon primary, there's now a Koch party that every Republican who's anybody wants to attend.  Or that the biggest beneficiary of CU on the left -- just barely left, for certain -- is Hillary Clinton.

All that free speech is bound to be just peachy for democracy.  You ready now?

Scattershooting while waiting for something to come on teevee

-- Will you be watching the coronation of Coathanger Ken this morning or the State of the Union this evening?  Or both?

With more angry conservative Congressional representatives in the House (and Senate) than ever, try to imagine how Obama's tax cut proposal is going to be received.  "You lie" is likely to be remembered as a peck on the cheek after tonight.

And don't miss Joni "Make 'em Squeal" Ernst's response, either.  The other Republican responses might be fun, but I'll read about them tomorrow rather than watch them tonight.  Between Greg Abbott and Rep. Curt Clawson, my toxicity detector can only red-line so many times in one twelve-hour period.

Update: Here's the speech Obama would be giving tonight if he were brutally honest.  Everybody (Democrat, Republican, Green, Libertarian, independent) should read it.

--The Wilmore Report The Nightly Show debuted last night to decent reviews.

“The Oscar nominations are out, and they’re so white, a grand jury decided not to indict them!”

Conservative viewers will appreciate that he got in a dig at Al Sharpton.

-- The inevitable backlash against the conservative slobbering over American Sniper is on.  It's already one of the highest-grossing films of the year -- in both red and blue states -- after its first weekend at the box office.  I haven't seen it yet, but I am pretty sure that I won't be able to ascribe either hero or coward status to Chris Kyle.  He suffered a lot of PTSD himself, particularly public delusions of grandeur away from the battlefield that have been debunked.  I think his is the premier cautionary tale of the dangers associated with sending young men and women to war even once, but certainly repeatedly.

We shouldn't do that again, but we especially should not do so if we cannot take care of our injured veterans after they return home.  And that includes their psychological wounds.

-- Selma is the movie I'm going to see first, however.  It has had its own controversies, truth-telling versus artistic license being the main one.  Having read enough about the interpretive disagreements involved, I'm also going to watch it without judgment.  Let's just keep in mind that this sort of thing isn't quite over yet in America.

(Update: Some people are still living with the damage they endured.)

-- Several US law enforcement agencies are now equipped with radar that can see what's going on inside your home.  Do you feel safe yet?

At least 50 U.S. law enforcement agencies have secretly equipped their officers with radar devices that allow them to effectively peer through the walls of houses to see whether anyone is inside, a practice raising new concerns about the extent of government surveillance.

Those agencies, including the FBI and the U.S. Marshals Service, began deploying the radar systems more than two years ago with little notice to the courts and no public disclosure of when or how they would be used. The technology raises legal and privacy issues because the U.S. Supreme Court has said officers generally cannot use high-tech sensors to tell them about the inside of a person's house without first obtaining a search warrant.

With each passing day, I feel less concerned about my megadata being surreptitiously collected, my e-mail and text and calls being monitored, and my cell phone being tricked by the cops while participating in a peaceful protest.

--  Yeah, we're all spending less at the pump but we're paying more at the grocery store.  Even giving the chickens more room to stretch their wings is pushing the price of eggs north.  As a conflicted carnivore, I will gladly pay that.

The MLK Day Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance commemorates the life of Martin Luther King Jr. today and welcomes any progress on moving his Dream closer to reality.

Off the Kuff offers some thoughts on emphasizing local elections for the next cycle or two.

lightseeker, back from his sabbatical at Texas Kaos, re-examines the state of the Democratic Party and the need for and challenges to grow its voter base, in The Great Progressivism Debate, Part I.

WCNews at Eye on Williamson grimaces at the taste of the rotten fruit of one party rule in Texas. See the corruption inherent in the system?

Texas Leftist kicked off his coverage of the 84th Legislative Session with a new blog series. Big Government Texas is a catalogue of the endless hypocrisy demonstrated by Texas' TEApublican CONservative leaders. Check out Part 1 and Part 2 of the series.

Texas Republicans clearly love their cronies' profits more than they care about the safety of our workers. CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme mourns along with those missing an actual fighter for workers and Texas children.

Handicapping the race for Houston mayor this early in the cycle is a dirty job, but PDiddie at Brains and Eggs did it anyway.

Bluedaze asks North Texans to make their voices heard at the EPA public hearing in Arlington on the proposed guidelines for controlling ozone.

Neil at All People Have Value -- perhaps suffering a bit of Seasonal Affective Disorder -- ruefully observes that since nobody voted in 2014, nobody really cares about what happens in Austin in 2015.

Texpate made a prediction about this summer's Supreme Court decision on marriage equality.

Dos Centavos wants to remind everyone that there is, again, no Tejano band playing on Go Tejano Day at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo.

=====================

And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs:

TFN Insider and Texas Watch join in bidding Rick Perry a very fond "Adios, mofo".

Christopher Hooks at the Texas Observer details the unannounced reasons why Leticia Van de Putte is running for mayor of San Antonio.

Juanita Jean explains what "local control" really means.

The Lunch Tray highlights Ag Commissioner Sid Miller's grandstanding on "cupcake amnesty".

Better Texas Blog lays out its legislative priorities.

CeCe Cox wants rationality to win out over fear-mongering in Plano.

Bill Kelly of Mental Health America of Greater Houston has his maiden blog post up, welcoming the Texas Lege back into session.  Minding Houston will be an advocate for policy supporting the mental health care system in Texas.

Grits for Breakfast shares a SAEN op-ed that implores the Lege to comply with the Prison Rape Elimination Act by raising the age of criminal culpability.

Lone Star Ma bemoans the STAAR requirements.

Newsdesk eulogizes Linda Bridges, president of the American Federation of Teachers chapter in Texas, who died unexpectedly last week.

Socratic Gadfly shares his best blog posts of 2014.

Fascist Dyke Motors has the second part of what's inside your head.

Trail Blazers takes note of the Dallas DREAMer invited to sit in the First Lady's box at the State of the Union address tomorrow night.

Finally, the TPA wishes Paul Burka all the best as he begins the next chapter of his life.

Handicapping the race for mayor of Houston

If you want to read about the money involved, this won't be the post or the place.  I'm going to leave that to those who want continuing access to the consultantocracy, which is at the opposite end of the spectrum from where I am.  I want the money OUT of ALL of our politics, and that goal is not served by constantly speculating about or documenting the details and building up the importance of fundraising.

Money is the reason we can't have a nice democracy in this country, in this state, and in this city.  Too much money is why we don't have enough progressive, populist Democrats as it is.  Money -- specifically Super PAC money and shadowy corporate money -- is in fact one of the main reasons why Democrats are conflated with Republicans, and by extension one of the many reasons why they cannot get the people who used to vote for them to the polls any longer.  I hope Democrats wise up and figure this out sooner than later, but if they don't, there's always the political party that has, and they will be fielding candidates for city elections in 2015.  Competition on the basis of beliefs and not bucks simply produces better politicians.

Update: As the Notorious RBG has so clearly stated: "Why should elections be determined by how much a candidate can spend and why should candidates spend most of their time these days raising the funds so that they will prevail in the next election?"

Having said that...

1. In the pole position is Rep. Sylvester Turner.  It's been twelve years, so it's time for his third bid for the center seat in the horseshoe (he ran in 1991, losing in a close runoff to the late Bob Lanier, and finished third in 2003, to eventual mayor Bill White and Orlando Sanchez).  He's already been in the race for nearly a year.

Turner's legislative, parliamentarian, and legal prowess is unmatched.  It's his well-hidden agenda that's always a little suspect.  In 1999, when the Democrats still held the Texas House, he was just as hard to read for his motivations as he was in 2013.  Turner's populist bonafides are similarly unquestioned, but his skills at compromise have clouded any reputation as a progressive.  As of today, he's the prohibitive favorite.

2-3. It's difficult to pick who among the declareds might be running second, so let's call the co-leaders Stephen Costello and Chris Bell.  Costello is a term-limited at-large council member best described as the most moderate a Republican can be while still being in the GOP.  This is completely unsatisfactory to the vast majority of conservative voters, however, which may actually be helpful in the mayor's tilt.  Costello is a River Oaks Republican; that's valuable in this race despite what the freakiest-of-freak-right think.  (He would have trouble mollifying the HERO-phobes anyway.)

I posted about Costello's various and extremely lucrative city contracts when he first ran for council in 2009 here and in 2011 here, and Open Source Dem posted about Renew Houston, the initiative Costello headed to have dedicated municipal funds to flood control.  He'll have all the cash he needs to run big, his own and other people's.  If Republicans vote for someone besides Costello, it won't be because of what they sneeringly refer to as the "rain tax".

Bell's Democratic credentials are without question.  He also ran for mayor previously in 2001, an ill-fated bid against Lee Brown.  Since leaving City Hall in 2002, he has served in Congress and been tubed by Tom DeLay, then ran for governor in 2006, pounding the hapless incumbent in the last gubernatorial debate held in Texas until 2014 -- but coming in second, 39-30%.  He also lost a bid for state Senate in 2008 after a Republican-backed stalking horse named Stephanie Simmons forced him into a runoff with now-Sen. Joan Huffman, exposing some of the more unpleasant racial tensions that have dogged his public service.  Bell will have plenty of support among Houston Anglo Democrats; they're the largest voting bloc in the city.  He just needs to find a way to get more black and brown votes.  Bell's Wiki says he is a border surge proponent, which would limit support from Latinos, but in a recent conversation since last summer's child crisis, he's recognized that a greater degree of compassion is needed to solve the state's immigrant concerns.

(There is a tremendous opportunity for someone to speak up about issues of social justice such as the criminalizing of food-sharing -- if Kubosh can do it, surely some liberal can -- human trafficking, police abuse, and the plight of neighborhoods like Manchester that find themselves at the sharp end of the environmental spear while Valero gets yet another tax break.  I'll watch and see who might emerge in that regard.  It will certainly beat having to listen to the incessant caterwauling of the gay-haters.)

Bell's signature issue throughout his political career has been ethics reform, and specifically the regulation of what we used to quaintly call soft donor money.  This legacy is part of why he's suing Turner over how the contributions to the Representative's legislative coffers might be transferred to a mayoral run.

Considering the various constituencies who won't support him in any circumstance, Bell has a high bar to clear to make the runoff.  That could change if...

4-7. ... some of these conservatives can find traction and split the R vote: Ben Hall (of course he's a Republican, silly rabbit), Bill King, Oliver Pennington, and Orlando Sanchez.  Hall is raring to go again with his peculiar coalition of holy warriors aligned against the city's non-discrimination ordinance (black pastors, their flocks, and TeaBaggers).  People who look at early polling of the mayor's race see some strength for Hall.  I'm not party to those polls and wouldn't place much stock in them if I were.  He's just got too much baggage to carry from two years ago.  But it's fair to say that Hall's early support is not nothing, and he's still got the wallet to make it work.  My perception is that the Af-Am vote is already committed to Turner and that the far right can find a more palatable candidate in Pennington.  He's going to try to be the most conservative guy in the race, and that unfortunately might count for something.  King's just too much like Costello without the Houston ballot name recognition.  Sanchez, as with another Latino mulling the race, needs to commit before I can factor him into the exotic parlays.

8-12.  The already-also-rans, including some who are still 'maybes', include Metro board chairman Gilbert Garcia, former United Airlines executive Joe Ferreira, businessman Marty McVey, attorney Sean Roberts, and most doubtful of all, Council Member Jack Christie, who's lately saying more about not running.  Garcia's brother, Roland, is a high-powered attorney and an important behind-the-scenes player in the Parker administration.  Gilbert has started and managed a variety of high-profile financial firms and and hosted bloggers as part of Metro's PR push.  He was also active in Sylvia Garcia (no relation)'s campaign for state senator in 2012.  Garcia would make a fascinating entrant, but he's tipping that he's not running.  Roberts is a black Dem and known to me well as a decent fellow.  McVey was recently interviewed on urban radio about the events of Ferguson and Staten Island.  Ferreira is a political novice and somewhat of a cipher.  Only conservative Christie has held elected office, and he defeated  progressive darling Jolanda Jones just four years ago.  There's no reason to think any of these folks stand much of a chance, and that's irrespective of name recognition or funds or stances on issues.

The wildest of cards is, of course, Adrian Garcia.  He moves to the head of the class if he stops playing coy.  He's not talking about quitting the sheriff's department and jumping in because he can't, and this piece says he's not raising much money, but then there's this (from just before last Election Day).

Some donors and political allies say Garcia has sent every signal he will run for mayor. Others consider him genuinely undecided.

Nothing has prevented Garcia from raising big dollars. A fundraiser hosted by prominent trial attorney Tony Buzbee at his River Oaks home raked in more than $100,000 for him last month, and the popular politician raised $217,000 in the first half of 2014.

When introducing Garcia, Buzbee made it clear to the crowd that they stood in his home not to just bolster the coffers of the sheriff, but to build the fundraising base of the next mayor.

"I know you can't declare for mayor, and you can't declare you want to run for mayor, but, by golly, I wish you would look around this room and see who wants you to do so," Buzbee told Garcia.

Garcia told the 120 donors that he was focused solely on his current job.

Yeah.  And I promised I wouldn't blog about fundraising.

Everybody remembers why Buzbee has been in the news, right?  A Democrat once mentioned as a candidate for statewide office who is now quite solidly a Republican?  That almost precisely describes Adrian Garcia.

As previously mentioned, I wouldn't support him if he ran for dogcatcher, but my speaking against him won't keep him from making the runoff if he gets in.  He's the ultimate pandering, middle-of-the-road Blue Dog on his best day, and now I'm convinced he has had conversations with Buzbee about switching parties.  Forget his handing the position of Harris County Sheriff back to the GOP; he's a DINO long established.  If Adrian Garcia's ultimate ambition is to get elected to statewide office, then he will have to declare himself a Republican.  Should be just a matter of playing the card, as he's already there philosophically.

He's out until he's in, though, so rank it Turner, Costello, Bell, and some other conservative -- one of Hall or Pennington -- as of today.  If/when Sheriff AG pulls the trigger, it turns into a real scramble, with he and Turner and some Republican (I'd say probably a Caucasian one) as best bets to make the top two.  O Sanchez would be the biggest loser in this development.

What's your take?