Monday, July 11, 2016

The Weekly Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance mourns the Dallas Police Department's losses at a peaceful Black Lives Matter protest, and continues to support constructive solutions for our country's ongoing racial issues.  Here's the blog post roundup.


Off the Kuff notes some interesting aspects of national polls and how they relate to Texas.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos urges Democratic candidates to run as Democrats. Neo-liberalism and Republican-lite are not winnable options. A Gentle Reminder to Texas Democrats: Neoliberalism is not a winning solution.

The Texas Republican in charge of social services (isn't that a joke) shows the typical Republican disdain for women, their families and their health by offering mosquito repellent to fight off the Zika virus. CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is disgusted.

July is presidential nominating conventions month and PDiddie at Brains and Eggs has the lowdown on the Republicans, Democrats, and Greens (coming to Houston in August).

SocraticGadfly advises environmentalists not to get fooled by Exxon's head fakes on a carbon tax.

Texas Leftist speculates on Trump's brand of terror.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston recaps the Texas Department of Insurance's hearing on arbitration.

Asian American Action Fund writes about religion's impact on the 2016 election.

Egberto Willies had to call out a friend who has turned toward Trump.

The Lewisville Texan Journal takes note of the city's Animal Services event in coordination with the showing of "The Secret Life of Pets".

Neil at All People Have Value walked in the Sharpstown neighborhood of Houston with his sign regarding the value of everyday life. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

Better Texas Blog begins prep work for the 2017 budget process, Erika Greider at Burkablog forewarns the 2017 Texas Legislature about the looming budget battles, and Eva DeLuna Castro places the blame for Texas' tightened budget where it belongs.

Juliet Stipech and Norma Torres Mendoza argue that comprehensive immigration reform is a matter of the United States’' continued economic prosperity.

Grits for Breakfast blogs about the Dallas police shootings as "changing everything"... or nothing.

Jim Hightower posits on police violence, Black Lives Matter, and populism.

Ashton Woods at Safety in Numbers tells Pride Houston they still have a problem.

The TSTA Blog applauds Hillary Clinton's promise to reduce the role of standardized testing in public schools.

Prairie Weather wants to know if Hillary is really in the clear.

Ty Clevenger at Lawflog points out that Clinton isn't the only person in government protected by a double standard.

Zachery Taylor compares Joe Biden's 'Cancer Moonshot' to Al Gore's claims of having invented the Internet.

The Rag Blog posts details about its 50th anniversary Rag Reunion and Celebration in the fall.

Sunday, July 10, 2016

TX election law decisions on voter ID, redistricting coming

Election Law Blog's Rick Hasen:

The federal challenge to Texas’s strict voter identification law is pending before the entire Fifth Circuit sitting en banc.  The Supreme Court set a soft July 20 deadline for a decision—after that the Court has invited plaintiffs to seek immediate relief for this election before the Supreme Court. There’s nothing technically binding about that date, but I expect we will see a decision by then from the Fifth Circuit, and then, whatever happens, I expect an emergency motion to the Supreme Court for whichever side loses.

Meanwhile, the never ending federal district court challenge to Texas’s redistricting remains pending in San Antonio, with a delay that at this point is as inexplicable as it is inexcusable. That case, when decided, will be on a fast-track appeal to the Supreme Court as well, but with any ruling relevant only for elections after 2016.

We are also waiting for other decisions, and one of those big ones is the appeal to the Fourth Circuit of North Carolina’s strict voting laws. That one, too, will likely end up with a request for emergency relief from SCOTUS.

Hasen has predicted that Fifth en banc will deny the photo ID appeal, sending the case on to the Supremes, where a ruling might not come until after November's election, as the court has adjourned for the summer and probably won't render a verdict until long after the first Monday in October.  Even an immediate judgment once the Court reconvenes would be very close to the start of early voting (although the change consists of not asking for ID, so your local election judges ought to easily re-adapt to the way Texas conducted elections for hundreds of years previously).  Worse, a 4-4 tie would remand back to the Fifth's decision.  So the case might have its best chance if it is stalled until there's a ninth justice.

Redistricting is going to wait for 2018, soonest, if it is struck down.

The North Carolina case might also beat Veazey v. Abbott to the Eight (or Nine, depending on how quickly Merrick Garland gets confirmed after a historic delay), and could be the precedent-setter in that event.

So more waiting, but potentially some progress as well.

*Post updated for clarity throughout

Sunday Above The Law Funnies

Friday, July 08, 2016

Nobody could have expected an attack on police

Especially not in Texas, after all.  Right?

Downtown Dallas was in lockdown early Friday after snipers shot 11 officers, five fatally, during a protest over deadly police shootings of black men elsewhere.

Three people were in custody and a fourth suspect exchanged gunfire with authorities in a parking garage at El Centro Community College into the morning, Dallas Police Chief David Brown said.

NBC Dallas Fort-Worth reported the fourth suspect had been "neutralized" at around 2:45 a.m. (3:45 ET). Earlier, he had told police negotiators that "the end is coming" and that "there are bombs all over the place in this garage and downtown," Brown said.

Extensive sweeps of downtown for explosives were carried out and the FAA ordered a temporary flight restriction over the city.

It was the deadliest day for law enforcement since 9/11.

I suppose I could be cited for instigating something with an inflammatory blog posting (good thing nobody reads this blog) but the law probably has more important people to hunt down.  The truth, as everyone who's been paying attention knows, is that LEO is bringing this sort of thing upon themselves by refusing to police the criminals within their own ranks.

As my social media fills up with various hashtags starting with the words, "Pray for", we have to once again point out to the legally blind that perhaps God isn't going to be of much help in this (or any other) regard.  This is a people problem, and only people can work it out.

Here's another prediction: I expect more violence from both sides, even though only one will be publicly denounced and appealed to for calm.

As the chant goes: "No justice, no peace".

Update: The NY Post is just telling the truth.


Sorry if it makes you feel uncomfortable.  There's a lot more discomfort coming down the pike.

Update II:
So you have, every 28 hours, a person of color, usually a poor person of color, being killed with lethal force — and, of course, in most of these cases they are unarmed. So people march in the streets and people protest; and yet the killings don’t stop. Even when they are captured on video. I mean we have videos of people being murdered by the police and the police walk away. This is symptomatic of a state that is ossified and can no longer respond rationally to what is happening to the citizenry, because it exclusively serves the interest of corporate power.

-- Chris Hedges, a month ago

You better go read it.  He's much better at predictions than me.

Thursday, July 07, 2016

The toons that didn't make the cut

Scattershooting conventions and vice-presidential nominees

But not black men.  Alton Sterling and Philando Castile are the names of the latest victims in a continuing national tragedy.  The police aren't reforming themselves, so someone is going to have assist them.  When order is more important than justice, then disorder is compelled.  And I sure hope nobody is stupid enough to put me on a terrorist watchlist for making a simple observation.

Because that would indicate that the police state is farther along than even I suspected.  It would suggest that we are moving closer to the Israeli model, in fact.

In lighter fare ...

-- The corporations want to do the two major party conventions on the down-low.

(M)any special interests, from Comcast Corp. to financial giant JPMorgan Chase to insurer Blue Cross Blue Shield, will participate in convention-related activities, but they’ve become more creative in how they influence conventioneers — or are altogether refusing to discuss their convention plans.

“They want to show up, they want to rub elbows with everyone at the conventions, they just don’t want the corporate name out there,” said Craig Holman, a government affairs lobbyist for advocacy group Public Citizen, who has long tracked influence efforts at the conventions. “They’ll be looking for lower-key ways of doing the same thing they’ve always done.”

-- And let's update here instead of there that Mike Pence has moved into the lead in the GOP veepstakes.  Marc Belisle at Reverb Press is searingly on point.

Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie have egos and ambitions at least as great as Trump’s. The businessman may appreciate their input on the campaign trail, but the possibility of a right hand man who could eclipse him politically would be too much for the insecure narcissist. Besides, both Gingrich and Christie are too savvy to want to be sidelined in the VP spot. Gingrich is probably angling for something like Chief of Staff. And for the sake of irony, let’s say Christie is gunning for Secretary of Transportation. If Trump loses in November, they can say they were just advisers and Trump didn’t follow their advice. If nothing else, they glide into a 7-figure lobbyist gig.

Pence, on the other hand, has little to lose, since he’s in trouble in his reelection bid in his home state. He’s the kind of man Trump could have in his pocket, since he would owe his political life to the New York businessman. Pence could help Trump in the Upper Midwest, which is where the Republican candidate needs to win to have any chance in the Electoral College. Pence would also help Trump woo evangelical voters, a key Republican voting bloc that Trump has had difficulty connecting with. Finally, if they get to the White House, Pence can work his contacts in Congress, especially the House, since he served there for 12 years, including a 2-year stint as Chairman of the House Republican Conference.

A Pence nomination would open Trump up to attacks on the governor’s record of forcing far right religious legislation on his state while ignoring its serious problems. But that itself could bring the evangelicals on board. This is the kind of match that Christie, Gingrich and adviser Paul Manafort would likely push Trump to make. If the Republican presidential candidate were a wiser, less petty politician, he might choose a running mate like New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, who would address a lot of his electoral problems. But he aggressively alienated her. His options are narrowing. Trump and Pence are drawn to each other for complex reasons. With time running short before the convention, and a bruising general ahead, Pence might be the best Trump can do now, if he’s acting rationally enough to make that decision.

The most difficult thing for Drumpf to do is take advice -- aka cautions, warnings, etc. -- from other people, those who know more about something than he does.  He's never lived his life that way.  Pence as VP would be a master stroke because the Indiana governor is the same kind of Teabagging extremist that Cheeto Jesus is without the bombast.  A formidable ticket it would be.

-- And to that end, it's always useful to take stock of what the conservative teevee talking heads are saying.  Mark Halperin, my go-to guy when I want a shitty-ass politico's insights that I never would have considered.

Among other things, Trump doubled down on his praise for former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, expressed regret for deleting an anti-Semitic meme circulated by white supremacists, and announced that he wants convicted murderer Don King to speak at this month’s Republican convention.
Any normal person who watched the speech thought it was a train full of flaming dumpsters crashing into a dumping ground for nuclear waste.

As Trevor Noah said, "the week Hillary Clinton narrowly avoided indictment was a bad week to praise Saddam Hussein".  (As if there was ever a good one.)

“Morning Joe,” however, wondered if it was an indication that Trump was “getting his groove back.” Frequent guest Mark Halperin seemed to think the answer was, “Yes!”

“There’s no conventional political consultant in either party who would have approved that speech,” Halperin acknowledged before gearing up to praise Trump. “But… if he’s going to win, it’s going to be with that, with vintage Trump, where he not just energizes people, but also confident, also entertaining, and also with an ability to convey to people that he’s different. That he’s not going to be politically correct or business as usual.”

Halperin also predicted that if Trump kept making speeches like this — along with picking a good running mate, having a good convention and winning the first debate against Hillary Clinton — he’d “go ahead in the polls.”

I got nothing, except a little gnawing feeling he might be right.

-- I won't belabor the Clinton email matter much after today, but this needs to be documented.  The intent or mens rea determination that prosecutors make when faced with a close call on a target's crimes -- or lack thereof -- isn't based on probable guilt but the odds of conviction.  Prosecutorial discretion is essentially an 'is this worth my time and effort' query.  This turns out to be one of the core pillars of our criminal justice system.  If it looks like it's crumbling to you, as it does to me, we might both be accurate in our assessment.


The Clintons -- both of them -- repeatedly exercise unethical judgment because they calculate their odds of getting away with it as very good because of who they are.  This is also part of the same sense of entitlement or whatever you'd like to call it.  That they do get away with it most clearly shows that there is one justice system for some people -- call them 1% -- and one for the rest of us.  It shouldn't escape you that it's mostly wealthy white people at the top and poor black people at the bottom.


What it is not, as everyone knows, is justice.  It is -- or should be -- sufficient grounds for revolution, peaceful and political.  Or otherwise if it is necessary.  How necessary you deem revolution to be is also a question of how much do you have to lose or gain by it.

Keep in mind that a President Trump represents revolution to some, no matter how flawed, bigoted, or ignorant their logic may be in arriving at that conclusion.

-- More Trevor Noah: if the choices are "Grandma Nixon or a traffic cone soaked in raw sewage… maybe you shouldn’t have an election."

You have other choices, Trevor.  It's not either/or, more evil/less evil.  You don't have to choose between eating shit or drinking piss.  Stop thinking in binary.

Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Presidential nominating conventions month (#SeeYouInHouston)

It's that time of the quadrennial, with the GOP up first in two weeks -- the most interesting things will, as usual, be happening outside the Cleveland convention hall -- the Democrats following suit the week after in Philly, where the Berners will stage their last stand, and the GPUS right here in H-Town ("Houston, We Have a Solution!") the first weekend of August.  The Libertarians went first, in late May and in Orlando, nominating Johnson-Weld as their standard bearers, which earned them a CNN-televised town hall.

-- Trump is expected to tap a running mate as soon as next week, Clinton is finishing up the vetting process for her finalists, and Jill Stein is holding the door open for Bernie Sanders.  My suggestions (not quite predictions) are Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa for the Orange-utan, Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia for Hillary, and former Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich for Stein.  Note that each of these brings gender balance to their respective tickets along with some swing state influence, making them the most, err, pragmatic selections for their parties.

Update: Ernst really doesn't want the job and neither does Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker, though the latter suggested Drumpf tap his daughter, Ivanka.  (Seriously, he did.)  So I suppose that leaves Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie.

-- I'll be assisting the GPUS team with social media during their convention.  You still have time to register to attend, secure lodging, and purchase meals in advance.  Here's the current list of workshops, with more on the way.


-- Charles has a good and even-handed post up about the latest in the Texas presidential developments and polling.  The remaining news to break that may move things one way or the other, besides the running mate picks, include:

  • How FBI director James Comey's scalding condemnation/non-recommendation of prosecution of Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified email is being received by the electorate at large;
  • Whether Drumpf can correct course with regard to Republican establishment acceptance, raise some money, or otherwise act like a serious presidential candidate;
  • What Bernie Sanders is going to do; join the parade, stand and watch but not cheer, or get out and go Green.  This one seems easy to predict for me: he wants to be a Senate committee chairman in a Democratically-controlled upper chamber, so he's going to play along with the Dems but to some watered-down degree, managing to infuriate Clinton's base and his own at the same time.

-- It's never too late to call for opening the presidential debates to third party candidates.

Tuesday, July 05, 2016

James Comey saves Hillary's bacon

Takes the heat off Loretta Lynch and any federal grand jurors in the process.  It was a pretty harsh scolding the FBI director gave the former Secretary of State in his public statement moments ago, but that's all it was.

I don't think the fire has been extinguished, but the bad weather is blowing over.

In chronological order:










So it was necessary, as referenced here, for there to be malfeasant intent, not just sloppiness or incompetence.  That's the part I got wrong; she didn't mean to, and that's okay.

I suppose there would have had to have been evidence that somebody died as a result of her mishandling of classified information.  But perhaps not even then.  Killing your own credibility and trustworthiness is no crime, after all.

Especially when it was already dead.

Update: It seems the law is quite clear about intent.

Scattershooting President Clinton's first hundred days

-- This, via here, only succeeds in making me nauseous.  They left out 'start a war on Iran' for openers.  At least she might accomplish what Obama has failed to do on Guantanamo.  But she'd negotiate away an unfettered right for a woman to choose if she is left to drink alone with the GOP at White House happy hours.  (Yes, her call to abolish Hyde is a very good move.)


-- No, she won't. Because she understands what would happen if she did.

Texas Republicans, of all groups, are perhaps the most enthused over the idea that the state could be in play in the fall.

Republicans say they would love to see Democrats drawn into what they view as a hopeless money pit. But also, within a state GOP torn over its own nominee, a Clinton offensive could be just what it takes to rally an otherwise morose group.

“The quickest way to activate disenfranchised GOP donors who won’t give to Trump would be an aggressive effort by Democrats to win the state,” said Brian Haley, a Texan who was a top fundraiser in two previous GOP presidential campaigns.

Abbott is one of multiple Republicans who have already sent fundraising emails on the notion.

“She has already made it known that winning Texas will be a focus of her campaign,” Abbott campaign director John Jackson wrote in a recent missive, referring to Clinton. “It’s clear that Hillary will not only continue Obama’s liberal leadership—she will be even worse!”

Stay out of Texas, #HRod.  Democrats here have it bad enough as it is, and they might make up a little bit of ground  (scroll down to Mark Jones' assessment at the end) if you could just, you know, keep using the state as an ATM like always.

-- Some people are really mad about white privilege, brute-force capitalism, and Independence Day.

Call it the land you love, but make sure the drones are loaded, the poisons shipped off in container ships potent, the pestilence of capitalism fully armed with the parasitic power of one global power, my country tis of thee.

I could hammer and hammer the prison industrial complex eating the American Black Male. I could rattle on and on about the United States of Debts, all the trillions homeowners “owe” the financial loan sharks, thugs, or the trillion plus students owe for virtually worthless degrees in this precarious, at-will, dead-end job America.

I could rattle on how insipid and violent forgetting is, and knowing just enough of the foundations of the lies of history to get a young and old person steaming. Imagine, the state of the world with Hollywood, Big Sports, Bubble-head Big Media, Vapid Mainstream Academia weighing in on the vast sucking sound that is America’s presidential-congressional-gubernatorial set of mistakes called elections (sic).

Bombs bursting in air, as I cruised down from a pretty cool spot in the mountains, supposedly away from the ghastly 7-11-Walmart-Texaco-McDonald’s dervish of hyper-stupidity, also called mainstreaming, mainlining consumerism.

I certainly think that any of the morons advocating for #Texit -- even Greg Abbott knows better, for fuck's sake -- should have been compelled to go into the office or the plant for the entire three-day weekend, but this is simply too much hyperbolic exaggeration (two "trillions" is two too many) and way too angry.  Right message but absolutely the wrong messenger.

Dude: drink more America this Labor Day, mkay?

-- None of the above, thanks, but absolutely not Ron Green.

Monday, July 04, 2016

"Battleground bloodbath"

Put down that hotdog and take a look at this.  Via Politico, Ballotpedia's most recent state polling shows Hillary beating Trump ...

  • in Florida by 14 percentage points, 51-37
  • in Iowa by 4, 45-41
  • in Michigan by 17, 50-33
  • in North Carolina by 10, 48-38
  • in Ohio by 9, 46-37
  • in Pennsylvania by 14, 49-35
  • and in Virginia by 7, 45-38

Landslide territory -- which is to say that she has no place to go but down from here.  Look at all the states in which she registers 50% or nearly; that tells you they surveyed just two horses in the race.  Hilariously, Ballotpedia also polled John Kasich and Paul Ryan against Clinton, and did include Gary Johnson in a separate three-way (but not Jill Stein).  Here's how that more realistic view of the landscape appears:

  • Clinton 47, Trump 34, Johnson 12, neither/refused 7, MOE +/- 4% in Florida
  • Clinton 38, Trump 36, Johnson 16, neither/refused 9 in Iowa
  • Clinton 47, Trump 30, Johnson 14, neither/refused 9 in Michigan
  • Clinton 44, Trump 37, Johnson 10, neither/refused 10 in North Carolina
  • Clinton 41, Trump 34, Johnson 15, neither/refused 10, MOE 3.9% in Ohio
  • Clinton 46, Trump 32, Johnson 13, neither refused 9, MOE 4% in Pennsylvania
  • Clinton 43, Trump 35, Johnson 11, neither/refused 11, MOE 3.9 in Virginia 

Update: If you feel like sanity-checking one state, look at RCP for the Tarheels.  Two late-June polls gave Hillary just a two-point lead there ... and one had Trump ahead by 2.

I've been reading some things that say Johnson pulls votes from Clinton in similar numbers as he does Trump, but Ballotpedia's results here suggest that's not enough to keep her from a very large Electoral College victory in November.  If you're one of those people who likes to parrot that "polls this early don't mean anything", then you might be a junior political consultant or a Trump voter.

As for surveying Kasich and Ryan as the GOP nominee, maybe Ballotpedia should just go ahead and do a Mitt Romney versus Joe Biden head-to-head, no third party candidates.   Because we wouldn't want reality to intrude in any way.

Update II: NPR's magic tool lets you  manipulate data like voter demographics and turnout to predict the winner.  Nutgraf:

"I will win New York against Hillary Clinton," Trump promised at a campaign stop this spring. It's a claim he's fond of reiterating, and since he has articulated a specific desire to win New York, we wanted to see what it would take for him to turn his home state red. Assuming all other demographic groups vote exactly as they did in 2012, and assuming turnout also remains constant, Trump would need to win 97 percent of white men in New York. 97 percent.

Here's your takeaway:

If Clinton somehow loses this election, it would qualify as the most stunning collapse in political history.  And that shame would be all on her.  No more Green excuses, Hillbots.  Look above at how the party and its nominee are still being ignored, after all.

The Weekly Fourth Wrangle

As the Texas Progressive Alliance brings you the Independence Day blog post roundup, we ask you to be cautious about your planned explosions today.


Off the Kuff credits Wendy Davis for getting it right on HB2.

Libby Shaw at Daily Kos is hardly shocked to learn that our state is run by a group of misogynist swine. Will the Texas GOP Apologize for its Unconstitutional Anti-Abortion Bill and its Sexist Piggery?

Socratic Gadfly notes how chunks of the mainstream media tried to create Scalia-connected false drama on the Supreme Court's abortion ruling.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme warns Texans that a far right group wants to purge Starr County voter rolls so that you don't get a vote.

Neil at All People Have Value supports Ann Harris Bennett for Harris County Tax Assessor/Voter Registrar. She will do a very good job in that important office. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

The Lewisville Texan Journal reports on a community loan center as an alternative to the predatory auto title/payday lenders.

John Coby at Bay Area Houston translates Trump's Social Security plan.

Dos Centavos reviews the first Intocable album in three years.

Upon suggesting that Hillary Clinton modify some of her positions to attract Bernie Sanders supporters, Egberto Willies got the predictable response.

And Cheeto Jesus (Donald Trump) begged Saul Relative (PDiddie at Brains and Eggs) for a campaign donation.

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More posts from other great Texas progressive blogs!

Better Texas Blog reminds us that the Zika virus is fast approaching and outlines some preventative measures.

Lawflog takes note of the Texas Commission on Law Enforcement's investigation into the head of the TABC and her husband.

Prairie Weather reads the NYT's review of George W. Bush's forthcoming biography as a scathing indictment.

Steve Bates at Yellow Doggerel Democrat marks today's holiday with a song from the soon-to-be-retired Paul Simon.

The Houston Press peeks behind the scenes at Houston's thirty-year-old Freedom Over Texas, the city's fireworks on the Fourth celebration.

Carol Morgan has a point of view regarding the rendezvous on the Phoenix airport tarmac.

Ashton Woods at Safety in Numbers says, "Pride Houston, we have a problem".

Andrea Ferrigno celebrates the SCOTUS decision striking down HB2.

Keep Austin Wonky criticizes that city's road bond proposal.

The TSTA Blog takes exception to Texas exceptionalism.

The Makeshift Academic explains why Medicaid expansion was such a key component of the Affordable Care Act.

Drew Blackburn wonders why Austin is having such a hard time with regulations on sharing economy companies.

Paradise in Hell looks at the sinkholes of West Texas.

idiotprogrammer tells a tall tale about zombies.