Latest mayoral poll of very little value

I won't even celebrate its reveal of a huge Adrian Garcia slump.

Sylvester Turner remains the front-runner, but Adrian Garcia has lost his once firm grip on second place and Bill King rises into the top tier of contenders in the race for Houston mayor.

That's the headline from the latest poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and Houston Public Media, TV-8 and News 88.7, a survey indicating Garcia and King are now fighting it out for a chance to face Turner in a runoff.

Turner heads the pack of mayoral candidates at 19%, maintaining the lead he commanded in the same poll last May. No other candidate in this poll stands in double-digits.

Garcia and King tie for second-place, both supported by 9% of surveyed voters. Chris Bell comes in fourth at 6%, followed by Steve Costello at 5% and Ben Hall at 4%.

Still, a large number of voters haven't made up their minds. The survey of 567 likely voters conducted between September 25 and October 6 showed 42% undecided.

This is too many uncommitteds to glean any value from.  Last week's polling from Washington-based American Strategies had 25% who couldn't make up their minds, half as many KHOU/HPM's first poll in June, which had 53% undecided.  So you're telling me after all of this phone-calling and door knocking and mailers and TV commercials over the summer and early fall that only 11% more of the electorate has managed to pick a candidate?

No.  Sorry, that's worthless data to me.  I think they're doing a little better on their polling of HERO, which is 43% yes, 37 no, and 18 unsure, but even that many Houstonians who don't know how they'll vote on the ordinance has too much doubt in it.

They got it right on Sylvester Turner being one of two going to December -- that's been the trendline for a couple of weeks now -- but that just seems like a lucky shot compared to everything else.

"I would say Sylvester is as close to a lock on having it as you can get," Rice University political scientist Bob Stein said, referring to one of two spots in December's anticipated runoff.

Otherwise there's nothing to get excited about here.  This poll is crap.  That's too bad for UH's Bob Stein... and also Bill King.

King has been the chief beneficiary of Garcia's decline, mainly because of growing support from Republican voters. King and Costello have been fighting it out for GOP hearts and minds, emphasizing financial issues like the city's growing pension obligations.

But Costello's backing of the drainage fee to bankroll flood control infrastructure has hurt him with many Republican voters, who consider it a poorly implemented new tax.

"Bill King has gained tremendously," Stein said. "He was barely measurable in our May poll. He's now at 9 percentage points. Most importantly from our May poll, his gain appears to be from Republican voters."

Republicans polled for this survey are breaking for King over Costello by a 4-to-1 ratio, Stein said.

Too much spin, too many undecideds, too much uncertainty all around to be making these statements, Dr. Stein.  Take all of what he says with a few shakers of salt, but don't put your blood pressure at risk.

King is going to spin it even faster than Stein with his next fundraising appeals.  And hey, if they somehow got it right and I didn't, you'll see me with the plateful of blackbird and a knife and fork.  But if I'm giving the pep talk to anybody's campaign staff today, those words are: Ignore this poll.  It's still anybody's game.

Update: Danny Surman dives deeper, comes to the same conclusion.

The Pre-Debate Columbus Day Wrangle

The Texas Progressive Alliance is ready for a real debate -- such as, "Why is Columbus Day still a national holiday?" -- as it brings you this week's roundup.  (Oh, and some serious presidential candidates debating reality-based issues as well.)

Off the Kuff examined two polls of the Houston mayor's race and HERO referendum.

Libby Shaw at Texas Kaos, and contributing to Daily Kos, shared an article she read in the Houston Chronicle. It seems that a certain group is determined to white wash U.S. and Texas history: The Texas Textbook Fiasco.

CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme objects to police chiefs wanting to stir up trouble with 'in your face' declarations of their religion, which is the opposite of community policing. Police are hired by the public to promote the general welfare, not the chief's animus to diversity.

Socratic Gadfly takes a Washington Post columnist to the woodshed for using tortured logic to claim Hillary is actually more progressive than Bernie.

TXsharon at Bluedaze has the latest on the green-washing of Denton's frackers.

Ahead of the first Democratic candidates debate, PDiddie at Brains and Eggs heard the Clinton machine finally rumbling to life. He also listened to more dripping about her email, and mused on her policy pronouncements regarding the TPP and Glass-Steagall.

Dos Centavos noted Hillary's flip-flop on Obama's deportations.

From Harris County's Johnson-Rayburn-Richards dinner over the weekend, Egberto Willies has a short interview with keynote speaker Barney Frank that Sanders supporters aren't going to like.

Letters from Texas writes about Dallas County DA Susan Hawk state representative Garnet Coleman's mental health issues, and how he was able to master them.

Texas Leftist posts about Houston's "Riverwalk", the freshly renovated Buffalo Bayou Park, walkways, and bikeways.

At the 4th anniversary of Occupy Houston, Neil at All People Have Value recalled the accomplishments of the Occupy protests. APHV is part of NeilAquino.com.

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And here are some posts of interest from other Texas blogs.

The Texas Election Law Blog analyzes the seven constitutional amendments on the November ballot.

TFN Insider excerpts portions of the report that confirms the harmful consequences of Texas' anti-abortion legislation.

Mike McGuff, Houston's media tracker, reports that there will be a mayoral debate televised this Friday night by KPRC and Telemundo.  And the most recent poll from KHOU has Turner well at the lead, followed by a surging Bill King and a slumping Adrian Garcia.

BARC Houston lists two free spay-and-neuter and pet wellness events in the city this week.

Ty Clevenger's Lawflog reports on still another investigation necessary that involves the tangled business relationships between AG Ken Paxton and Collin Co. DA Greg Willis.

Bonddad is feeling his mortality as he contemplates that another neoliberal in the White House is going to mean the same old decline for the middle class.

D Magazine has an in-depth look at the troubled story of Dallas County DA Susan Hawk.

Paradise in Hell ponders redistricting.

Austin On Your Feet documents the problems of homelessness.

Kevin Barton argues against state Proposition 7, one of the constitutional amendments that will be on your November ballot.

Jenny Dial Creech shares what it's like to be a female sportswriter.

The TSTA Blog wishes there was a STAAR test for legislators.

Fascist Dyke Motors belts out an old Tammy Wynette song.

And Eater Houston has the deets on a local bar offering a drink menu today called "Christopher Columbus was an Asshole".

Sunday Funnies

Your headlines as the Longhorns prepare to ... nemmind (Update)

I'm so old I can remember when OU-Texas was something to look forward to.  Now they're ready to lynch tar and feather fire Charlie Strong in Austin, even as Jeff Davis sulks in a crate somewhere.  Just remember: when Red ain't happy, ain't nobody happy.

That's what they call progress in Austin.  Where even the Democrats speculate in real estate, drive up the cost of living, and exercise fiscal austerity during the legislative session.

-- Hillary Clinton lost ten polling points in the past week, four to Bernie Sanders and four to Joe Biden.  The other two went back to the GOP.  This is not a poll you will see bar-graphed on jobsanger.  Still, nothing for her supporters to worry about.  On the bright side, she had a good meeting with the Black Lives Matter activists.

Johnetta Elzie, who focuses on police militarization and violence, attended the meeting. She told Business Insider that while the conversation was frank and productive, Clinton didn't always have direct answers to questions posed by different attendees.

"Hillary is a good listener. But she still has lots of room to grow when it comes to listening to black people actually talk about the issues that are affecting them, vs. how she perceives the issues to affect us," Elzie said.

Really; don't we all (that aren't black, I mean)?  That gets an 'amen' from this atheist.

-- Donald Trump is secretly looking for a way out of the GOP horse race.  But he's probably going to snarl and rant and spend a lot more money before he finds the right reason and takes it.

In unmistakable ways over the last two weeks, whether he has intended to or not, Donald J. Trump has started to articulate a way out of the presidential race: a verbal parachute that makes clear he has contemplated the factors that would cause him to end his bid.

It is a prospect that many in the political establishment have privately considered as the actual voting grows closer.

Go on, read them and see if you're buying. 

While Mr. Trump still leads major national polls and surveys in early voting states, that lead has recently shrunk nationally, and the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed his support eroding in New Hampshire, the first primary state. His recent comments have lent credence to the views of political observers who had long believed the perennially self-promoting real estate mogul would ultimately not allow himself to face the risk of losing.

“Even back in the summer, when he was somewhat defying gravity, somewhat defying conventional wisdom, it seemed to me there would be a moment when reality sets in,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican political strategist who is based in California. “He would not leave himself to have his destiny settled by actual voters going to the polls or the caucuses.”

Yes.  He does the firing, not you. 

Stuart Stevens, who was the chief strategist to Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential race, also doubts that Mr. Trump will stay in over the long haul. “Trump’s the only person that pre-spun his exit — it’s rather remarkable,” Mr. Stevens said.

He pointed to one of the issues that has nagged the Trump candidacy from the outset — how much he is willing to spend on the race, particularly if his polling numbers start to sag. “I think we would all say this is a more serious endeavor if he was spending $2 million a week out of his own pocket, and I think it’s another sign that he’s not in this to win,” Mr. Stevens said.

No.  It's not about the money and never has been.  It's about Trump's ego.  If he can get someone else elected, that's what he'll do and enjoy it just as much as if it was him getting sworn in.  "The Apprentice", starring Ted Cruz as the President of the United States.

Stuart Stevens: I have HBO, I've watched 'Game Change', and sir, you're no Woody Harrelson in a fat suit Steve Schmidt.  Get out of politics and go back to writing travel books.

That's all the conservative BS I can stand for the weekend.  Now I'm going to enjoy the rest of the Indian summer weather we're having.  Please do the same.

Update: Way to save Charlie's bacon, Horns.

Not Trump and Carson but Rubio and Cruz

Maybe you had not noticed, but the real black neurosurgeon who has been performing a frontal lobotomy on himself all week has drowned out The Donald's rants.  And even the Democrats have gotten more chatter because of their upcoming debate.  Be sure and remind Debbie Wasserman Schultz again about that.

I've worked to limit the outrage and/or snark about stupid things Republicans say every single day (Juanita Jean's always there for you) not because it's so much fun but because it's so time-consuming trying to keep up.  There's not much blogged here about what Stephen Colbert or Trevor Noah or Larry Wilmore say each night because Egberto's on that beat.  The Speaker's race is indeed a hilarious clusterfuck, but in the grand scheme of the local election we have coming up and then the presidential one next year, not all that B a FD to me.  And as you know by now, campaign finance reports and teevee commercials are best left to the geeks, wonks, and consultants who thrive on that.

So with three Hillary Clinton posts this week, and traffic sagging until I returned to the municipal elections yesterday (and with traffic back through the roof), I want to get in a few elbows on the GOP presidential field.

On Labor Day weekend at the AFL-CIO barbecue in Pasadena, somebody asked me if Scott Walker still had a chance to be the nominee.  I told her it was at least possible he could regroup, blow some Koch up his nose and reignite.  Go back and look at the September archives to see that he was carried out feet first two weeks later.  Since then all the rage among conservative pundits and prophets has gone from "who's next to quit" to "ZOMG is it really going to be Trump or Carson".

I'm gonna say that if either one of those two winds up being the Republican nominee, even a ticket of Lawrence Lessig and Jim Webb could beat that.  Like a red-headed stepchild.

So with the tenuous assumption that Republicans are smarter than this -- that's why they're so rich, of course -- somebody else is going to be at the top of the heap when the walls fall and the guns are silenced.  My take today is that it will be either Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, and here's why.

By process of elimination, it won't be Bobby Jindal or Lindsey Graham or Chris Christie or George Pataki or James Gilmore or Rick Santorum or Rand Paul.  Mullah Huckabee still has the longest of realistic shots thanks to Kim Davis, but he's being eclipsed on the strength of his own foibles.  Picking a fight with a bag of chips is a dead-ender.

That leaves Jeb!, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, and Ted and Marco.  You could scramble these five every possible way except with Bush and Rubio together (two candidates from the same state can run together but it gets problematic in the Electoral College, so discount the possibility of a pair of Floridians to zero), and you'd have a decent enough Republican duo to be a threat to Clinton-Castro or Sanders-Warren.  Since we're dreaming, after all.

But for the purpose of this exercise, let me veer away from my previously stated prediction of the top two and make it Kasich-Rubio (I've suggested previously -- scroll to the bottom -- that Kasich-Condoleeza Rice might just be too tough for the Democrats to beat, and I still believe that).  Rubio would be better as a VP than Rice not because of his Latino appeal but because of his evangelical cross-breeding.  Condi claims to be a libertarian on choice, and that damages her with the brand in this cycle.  The Bible-thumpers love Ted too, of course, and here's where you should disregard the rain-making reporting; Cruz doubled up Rubio in money in the third quarter.  Cruz excites the TeaBagger base with outbursts like "hate slaw!", but he's alienated too many inside players.  He's not going to settle for second place, either.  Ever the gladiator, he will affect the presidential process just like he does the Speaker's race, but in the end he'll content himself with going back to the Senate and taking another shot at Hillary in 2020.  He needs to mend some fences, make a few friends in the process.

If I'm wrong, though, and Cruz is at the top of the ticket, Clinton beats him like a drum.  Even Bernie Sanders beats Ted Cruz, and it wouldn't be all that close.

It goes without blogging but I'll write it anyway: Bush and Fiorina don't have the wherewithal to get it done this time.  Both have a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease, and Bush has a peculiar "finger-in-the-air" ailment.  Four years ago the GOP exhausted all the certifiably insane options -- Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Santorum -- before settling back on Mitt Romney.  Bush isn't going to be that lucky, no matter how many favors he thinks he can call in.  The base simply will not allow that to happen again.

Kasich (Ohio) and Rubio (Florida) are both from swing states the GOP has to have to win.  Cruz and Fiorina don't help enough electorally.  Condi, like Carly, is also from Cali; that's a non-starter for one but not the other.  Rice is a DC insider/gravitas pick as much as she checks off the right demographic boxes.  And like Dick Cheney, nobody really knows where she came from (born in Alabama, raised in Colorado, much of her adult life associated with Stanford University when she wasn't in Washington).  But I think, again, that she's not extreme enough for the bottom of the ticket when they tap a so-called moderate for president.

Rubio is Tea Party without the tricorn hat.  He's said enough crazy things -- climate change, border walls, etc. -- to earn some street cred.  Ultimately he's just less sour than Cruz, and when it comes to coconuts, that's important.

So the ticket will be some combo of "moderate" and rabid dog, with the assumption that Rice cannot be recruited for V-P.  Kasich-Rubio is my story today and we'll see how long it sticks.

Update: I could be just as wrong as either Ted or Donald.  Or both.  We shall see.